2019/20 Roster Thread XXII

[deadhead]

I'd categorically reject the notion that your 6th/7th defenseman or 12th forward isn't important. Every team in the league besides Ottawa ices 8-9 players who can play in the top half of the lineup for a Cup-winning team.

Despite being in a sheltered 3rd pair role, Hagg has given up the most Corsi of any defenseman on the team. He's a bad defensive defenseman. Bleeding scoring chances and shots is absolutely going to cost you over the course of a season.

Corsi For
Ghost 45
Hagg 39

Corsi Against
Hagg 45
Ghost 40

Despite the fact that they're 5v5 partners, Ghost has outperformed Hagg by a considerable margin in both ends. We're talking about a net difference of 4 per game. If you could improve on one of the worst defensemen in the league and just get to -2 per game (compared to Ghost) you're talking about 8-10 goals and probably 2-3 wins a year. This isn't just stuff you wave and shrug away.

Bad math.
In per game terms we're talking maybe a half a shot per game.
40 shots per year at best, and 4? goals at most (10% shooting all things held equal).
And, it ignores context, Ghost can't have a higher Corsi if he plays with Hagg all the time, obviously he's playing in more offensive situations than Hagg.
E +/- is 0.0 for both players, suggesting no real net impact.

The fact that Myers had a horrid xGF% paired with Ghost last season while Hagg with Ghost was around xGF 57% suggests that putting a more offensive minded player with Ghost could backfire, because fit matters.
It's not EA sports, you just can't take the 6 guys with the highest raw rating and put them together.

 

[Rich Nixon]

If Patrick feels better...

Giroux-Hayes-Voracek
Lindblom-Couturier-Konecny
JVR-Patrick-Farabee
Raffl-Laughton-Twarynski

Provorov-Niskanen
Sanheim-Braun
Ghost-Myers

If he doesn't, throw Frost in there at 3C and maybe one of Pitlick/Twar ends up his winger instead of Farabee because two babies on a line seems unlikely. But that's the lineup I want to see by New Year's Day, and one that I think would be just deadly all-around.

 

[deadhead]

Maybe Myers and Farabee can just do this a couple more times and both make the trip down from Allentown when the team comes home this weekend.



I think a Myers/Ghost pairing and some actual playmaking touch on the 3rd line check pretty much all the boxes.

I don't think their offensive skills are what got them demoted, so scoring a goal or two won't get them promoted.
In the case of Myers, focus more on the mindfarts and lack of fundamentals - that's what they want to see cleaned up.
With Farabee, I think it's a matter of how he learns to compensate for his current lack of size (Mass).

 

[Tripod]

For the record, I have no issue with them having G on the right side IF play has dictated that guys end up there. But to purposely ONLY have G on the right side and have not 1 player in a 1-timer position makes no sense at all.

Mix it up.

 

[Rich Nixon]

I don't think their offensive skills are what got them demoted, so scoring a goal or two won't get them promoted.
In the case of Myers, focus more on the mindfarts and lack of fundamentals - that's what they want to see cleaned up.
With Farabee, I think it's a matter of how he learns to compensate for his current lack of size (Mass).

Myers had his gaffes, as he did last preseason. When he played his 20+ game run last year they were minimal.

I honestly think younger players might just be slower at transitioning from summer to season, the stuff isn’t just ingrained yet. Might just need a longer runway to get back to speed than he will in a few years.

 

[flyersnorth]

It's certainly an evolution. But we tried this Giroux on the opposite side thing last year and it didnt work. Hes got the best vision on the ice, theres no reason we should be hampering him, especially given the results (acknowledging the small sample size here) they have (not) gotten.

I'm glad PP2 is playing better, but why does it need to be one or the other? What's wrong with having two good PP setups?similarly, what's wrong with having good ( or at least, better) players in you 6/7 and 12/13?

I guess we'll see over the first 10-15 games if they're able to sort it out. I'm sure Therrien will make some changes if things don't seem to be working.

 

[deadhead]

Myers had his gaffes, as he did last preseason. When he played his 20+ game run last year they were minimal.

I honestly think younger players might just be slower at transitioning from summer to season, the stuff isn’t just ingrained yet. Might just need a longer runway to get back to speed than he will in a few years.

A 39.39% xGF paired with Ghost suggests his gaffes were more than "minimal" last spring.
That's worse than Hagg paired with Gudas!

I think Myers, like a lot of young players used to carrying teams at lower levels, hasn't learned to let the game come to him and gets out of position and is too focused on trying to make offensive plays - he's a defenseman, first things first, take care of your responsibilities on defense and let the offensive opportunities come to you, then finish them.

Hopefully, this demotion will be a wake up call.

 

[flyersnorth]

If Patrick feels better...

Giroux-Hayes-Voracek
Lindblom-Couturier-Konecny
JVR-Patrick-Farabee
Raffl-Laughton-Twarynski

Provorov-Niskanen
Sanheim-Braun
Ghost-Myers

If he doesn't, throw Frost in there at 3C and maybe one of Pitlick/Twar ends up his winger instead of Farabee because two babies on a line seems unlikely. But that's the lineup I want to see by New Year's Day, and one that I think would be just deadly all-around.

Patrick's injury is really what is throwing things out of whack.

I agree, when he comes back, damn, we are stacked down the middle and I think that just helps all around the lineup.

I mean, Backstrom has had a successful career with migraines, so here's hoping they find something to help him manage it.

 

[Starat327]

I guess we'll see over the first 10-15 games if they're able to sort it out. I'm sure Therrien will make some changes if things don't seem to be working.

One can hope. I'm not ready to go to war over it, but I'd love to hear the rationale behind the move, if it exists. Like I said, it's a small sample this year, but the larger sample last year wasnt much better. Hoping they arent as slow to make changes as some of their predecessors.

 

[baudib1]

Bad math.
In per game terms we're talking maybe a half a shot per game.
40 shots per year at best, and 4? goals at most (10% shooting all things held equal).
And, it ignores context, Ghost can't have a higher Corsi if he plays with Hagg all the time, obviously he's playing in more offensive situations than Hagg.
E +/- is 0.0 for both players, suggesting no real net impact.

The fact that Myers had a horrid xGF% paired with Ghost last season while Hagg with Ghost was around xGF 57% suggests that putting a more offensive minded player with Ghost could backfire, because fit matters.
It's not EA sports, you just can't take the 6 guys with the highest raw rating and put them together.

The difference between Myers and Hagg is roughly 5 shot attempts allowed per game, that's 400+ a year, not 40.

There's nothing about Myers' play or stats so far that suggest he's an offensive-minded player. He was the lowest-event player on the team.

 

[BiggE]

I know people freak out when I defend Ghost, but let’s be real here.... he’s been very good individually and his only problem right now is that he’s buried with scrubs and the top PP is still being sabotaged.

If the lineup/usage gets fixed and he continues playing at the exact same level, he’ll be extremely successful.

And keep in mind how often he’s been forced to be the safety net, since for some reason Hagg thinks he’s EK in the offensive zone.

The few shifts he’s gotten with Provorov, he looked great.

The fact he can look serviceable playing with a mindless automaton like Hagg is impressive.

 

[BiggE]

Hopefully Stewart gets signed by tomorrow. You can never have enough garbage on the roster and I hate to see any unused cap space.

FML

 

[baudib1]

Giroux-Ghost-Voracek-Hayes have 9-9:31 ice time on the PP so far and have created 23 CF, 14 scoring chances, and 5 high-danger scoring chances.

JVR is part of that unit but has a minute less ice time, 21 CF, 13 SCF, 5 HDSCF.

The second unit (Niskanen, Couturier, Lindblom, Konecny, Provorov) have around 5-6 mins TOI, and have produced 5 CF, 3 scoring chances (3 goals!), and 2 HDSCF.

The first unit is playing great, the second unit has been pretty lucky.

 

[Juicy Pop]

If Patrick feels better...

Giroux-Hayes-Voracek
Lindblom-Couturier-Konecny
JVR-Patrick-Farabee
Raffl-Laughton-Twarynski

Provorov-Niskanen
Sanheim-Braun
Ghost-Myers

If he doesn't, throw Frost in there at 3C and maybe one of Pitlick/Twar ends up his winger instead of Farabee because two babies on a line seems unlikely. But that's the lineup I want to see by New Year's Day, and one that I think would be just deadly all-around.

Give Giroux a sniper with TK; I feel like Lindblom and Couturier shoot enough on their own that they can get Voracek rolling again.

 

[SaSaShi]

He has no speed. It fascinates me that people don’t see this. He’s still agile. But he has zero extra gear. And for a little offensive defenseman in a fast league, it kills him. He just blasts shots into shin pads now. He’s at least not forced as many bad plays in the d-zone & neutral zone so far this season. So that’s a plus. But, to paraphrase Dr. Loomis, the dynamism is gone.

I was just thinking this the other day....he plainly looked SLOW and his skating motion seems labored. The question is what happened to his speed???

he used to FLYYY back in college and especially that national champ game. Did the torn ACL permanently slow him down? But then he had that rookie year afterwards ( still didnt look as fast as his college days).

So what happened to his skating the past few years? The hip injury?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I was just thinking this the other day....he plainly looked SLOW and his skating motion seems labored. The question is what happened to his speed???

he used to FLYYY back in college and especially that national champ game. Did the torn ACL permanently slow him down? But then he had that rookie year afterwards ( still didnt look as fast as his college days).

So what happened to his skating the past few years? The hip injury?

I don’t know what happened. Last year I saw guys blow by him to negate an icing when he had a big head start. Part of it may be the hip & core injuries; part of it may be that he put on too much weight in an effort to be sturdier. He’s not a guy who’s meant to carry any weight.

 

[AdamParrot]

I really like Jake. I met him in summer, he is great person. So sorry, Jake, but I like AV more and more. He wants accountability from all players and it's good sign. And I still trust in you, Jake, no worry. Good luck tomorrow and get your first points in this season!

 

[TCTC]

I don’t know what happened. Last year I saw guys blow by him to negate an icing when he had a big head start. Part of it may be the hip & core injuries; part of it may be that he put on too much weight in an effort to be sturdier. He’s not a guy who’s meant to carry any weight.

It's probably unlikely we'll ever see a season like 2017/18 from him again. I'm still rooting for him though, especially after watching behind the glass and hearing him and his GF say how they don't want to be traded... But I guess that's the life of an NHL player.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

It's probably unlikely we'll ever see a season like 2017/18 from him again. I'm still rooting for him though, especially after watching behind the glass and hearing him and his GF say how they don't want to be traded... But I guess that's the life of an NHL player.

I’m pulling for him, too, but they should probably see what they can get for him before the league catches on.

 

[TCTC]

I’m pulling for him, too, but they should probably see what they can get for him before the league catches on.

Only for the right price though. He's not overpaid, even if he never reaches his peak again.

 

[deadhead]

The difference between Myers and Hagg is roughly 5 shot attempts allowed per game, that's 400+ a year, not 40.

There's nothing about Myers' play or stats so far that suggest he's an offensive-minded player. He was the lowest-event player on the team.

How do you get 5 attempts a game? That's ridiculous.
Teams only have maybe 20-25 ES shots a game TOTAL, and the 3rd pair plays significant less minutes than the top 2 D-pairs.

 

[AdamParrot]

Myers >>>>> Hägg

Everyone knows that expect deadhead. End of story.

 

[baudib1]

How do you get 5 attempts a game? That's ridiculous.
Teams only have maybe 20-25 ES shots a game TOTAL, and the 3rd pair plays significant less minutes than the top 2 D-pairs.

You know Corsi is just shots + blocks right

per 20 minutes, Myers gave up 19.1 CA while Hagg gave up 23.8 in the same time period at 5v5.

 

[deadhead]

Myers is far more talented than Hagg.
But last spring and in TC he showed he wasn't NHL ready.

 

[baudib1]

Myers is far more talented than Hagg.
But last spring and in TC he showed he wasn't NHL ready.

He's been ready since October last year.