2019-20 Roster Thread XIII: The Roster Molding Molds On

[mja]

If L Schenn got signed after his last three seasons, Hagg will have suitors lined up.
Manning played 4 NHL seasons and I predict will get picked up at some point this season.
Vandevelde was a 4th rd pick and played 3 seasons after 4 years of NHL cameos.

Hagg will play somewhere this season, I don't think the Flyers will keep 8 D-men, so Morin or Hagg will be traded in TC.

Luke Schenn is a better hockey player than Robert Hagg. Yes, even now.

Manning's effectively done as an NHLer and if not for Dave Hakstol wouldn't have lasted nearly as long in the league as he did. He's also, incredible though it may seem, a better hockey player than Robert Hagg.

Sure, Vande Velde played 3 seasons, the last 2 under Dave Hakstol who absurdly waited until the final game of the season (& of his NHL career) to healthy scratch him. He then promptly became a mediocre player in Europe.

All of which is a far cry from your original assertion that Hagg is going to have a long NHL career. I have no doubt he'll play somewhere this season. I think we might even be able to get a 2nd for him, because dinosaurs still roam the GM suites around the league. But Hagg sucks and the league is going to catch onto that fact sooner rather than later and once they do he's done. I know you know that he sucks. You've admitted in the past that he sucks. You just can't bring yourself to admit how much he sucks because that would mean that Hakstol's usage of him was idiotic, insane, and wrong, and you can't have that now, can you?

 

[deadhead]

L Schenn is not better than Hagg right now, he's been awful for three years, where Hagg has been a typical 3rd pair defenseman except last year when he was paired with Gudas and AMac. The league knows what Hagg can do, they have plenty of film, and a smart HC won't pair him with a partner who can't puck handle and will have him focus on positioning, not hitting.

VdV was 30 when his career ended, an age when most mediocre NHL players fall out of the league, you expected him to play to 35?
Matt Read's NHL career essentially ended at age 30 (19 games at 31, 12 at 32). Max Talbot's last year was at 31, playing 38 games.
Ty McGinn, another 4th rd pick (who we traded for a 3rd) didn't get past age 24.

 

[mja]

L Schenn is not better than Hagg right now, he's been awful for three years, where Hagg has been a typical 3rd pair defenseman except last year when he was paired with Gudas and AMac. The league knows what Hagg can do, they have plenty of film, and a smart HC won't pair him with a partner who can't puck handle and will have him focus on positioning, not hitting.

VdV was 30 when his career ended, an age when most mediocre NHL players fall out of the league, you expected him to play to 35?
Matt Read's NHL career essentially ended at age 30 (19 games at 31, 12 at 32). Max Talbot's last year was at 31, playing 38 games.
Ty McGinn, another 4th rd pick (who we traded for a 3rd) didn't get past age 24.

Hagg sucks and doesn't belong in the league. Just like VdV sucked and didn't belong in the league. They are not true NHL players. I have no idea what comparing VdV to Matt Read, Max Talbot, or Ty McGinn is supposed to accomplish, other than pointing to superficial similarities to make some kind of incoherent argument. Matt Read stepped into the league after college and immediately scored 24 goals. Max Talbot had an 11 year NHL career and had played more NHL games at age 22 than VdV did by age 27. And what in the actual f*** does Tye McGinn have to do with anything other than he was picked in the same round as VdV and also wasn't a legit NHL player?

You're off your rocker.

 

[flyersfan187]

Luke Schenn and Hagg have both been bad and I can't believe Schenn is still in the league unless he somehow managed to gain a hockey IQ. You don't hit and lose your position on the ice as a d-man and both players do it. As a d-man you have to be smarter with your hits and not take yourself out of the play and put your teammates at a disadvantage.

I always say though if Hagg can fix up his positioning and get a decent outlet pass then he would be a solid bottom pairing guy in the NHL.

 

[deadhead]

People simply don't understand statistical distributions.
NHL talent is on the end of the right tail (doesn't matter what distribution, because pro talent is far out on the end).
The further you go, the thinner the talent, i.e., there are few Gretzkys but lots of 4th line forwards.

The difference in depth between bad teams and good teams is a slight movement toward the end of the tail.
Guys like VdV spend their career around or just above replacement level, his three years in GAR: +1.8, -4.7, +1.7
Varone: -2.2 in 28 games, -0.5 in 47 games, Vorobyev -0.4 in 15g,
Players decline - Lehtera, +9.1, +1.9, -1.0, -2.4 in 27g
Players bounce, Hagg was +1.0., -10.5, Voracek 1.4, 7.5, 3.5 last three years
GAR gives a general sense, but it is not an exact measure of player value

Ideally you'd like 18 guys who are above replacement, but since bottom six guys above replacement soon make $2-3M, you have to constantly find new, cheap talent to fill those bottom spots, and not all will be above replacement, especially after the fact.

Players who are replacement level or just above will always have jobs b/c there are teams that can't fill 18 spots with replacement level players (talent is unevenly spread around the league) and when injuries occur, below replacement level players are usually the replacements (b/c otherwise they'd already be in the NHL).

 

[TB87]

Feeding the condescending, contrarian, & know it all trolls is alive & well on this board I see. They’ll go away if y’all ignore them folks...

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Luke Schenn and Hagg have both been bad and I can't believe Schenn is still in the league unless he somehow managed to gain a hockey IQ. You don't hit and lose your position on the ice as a d-man and both players do it. As a d-man you have to be smarter with your hits and not take yourself out of the play and put your teammates at a disadvantage.

I always say though if Hagg can fix up his positioning and get a decent outlet pass then he would be a solid bottom pairing guy in the NHL.

Hagg is essentially a thicker version of amac. Nhl level skill paired with horrendous instincts and for everyone crying about him being groomed into a pylon he played the same way before being drafted too. When there's a prime opportunity to make a pinch and keep possession they are already half way back to neutral zone then when opponents skate the puck out they are already so far back that they are conceding zone entries like candy at Halloween. Once in zone they collapse to the net in hopes of getting hit by the puck or in one case fall flat on the ice flailing around and another case chase a hit, either way getting egregiously out of position.
Now if you pair it with their low hockey IQ then they can't read the plays to interrupt the passes defensively, can't recognize plays on the offense and are unable to see the open ice in transition thus they end up hurting the team on both sides of the puck with the lone exception being those two minutes a night they spend on penalty kill. Even if Hagg improves leaps and bounds he will go from below replacement level player to replacement level player and there is no reason to sink even more time in him at the expense of more talented players. Provy, Ghost, Sanheim and Myers were pretty much all called up a year late while Morin has been wavering on the verge for ages.
I would say Florida chose the opposite approach to flyers giving plenty of opportunity to young D. Pysyk and Matheson stuck around while Petrovic didn't pan out. They got rid of kulikov and gudbranson replacing them with vets that can actually play in Yandle and Demers. Of course then Tallon came back and got rid of Demers while throwing chunk of money at washed up Stralman so I guess we are on same playing field now.

 

[deadhead]

Provy, Ghost, Sanheim and Myers were pretty much all called up a year late while Morin has been wavering on the verge for ages.

Provorov came up at 19, that doesn't seem exactly "late."
Sanheim struggled as a rookie, sent down and played much better when he returned, that sound like he came up a little early, if anything.
Myers struggled last spring, so he certainly wasn't called up "late," he's still on the learning curve.
Morin blew his opportunities, no one won a job from the trainer's room.

This fantasy that force feeding prospects helps them develop faster has no empirical support, if anything, it seems more likely to potentially ruin young players. Hard to think of a prospect ruined by an extra half season in the AHL.

 

[Rebels57]

 

[David St Hubbins]

 

[Ghosts Beer]

ich bin ein Karliner

 

[Harhis]

L Schenn is not better than Hagg right now, he's been awful for three years, where Hagg has been a typical 3rd pair defenseman except last year when he was paired with Gudas and AMac. The league knows what Hagg can do, they have plenty of film, and a smart HC won't pair him with a partner who can't puck handle and will have him focus on positioning, not hitting.

VdV was 30 when his career ended, an age when most mediocre NHL players fall out of the league, you expected him to play to 35?
Matt Read's NHL career essentially ended at age 30 (19 games at 31, 12 at 32). Max Talbot's last year was at 31, playing 38 games.
Ty McGinn, another 4th rd pick (who we traded for a 3rd) didn't get past age 24.

So Hagg was horrible when he was not carried by Ghost ot Provorov. Shocker.

 

[TheKingPin]

It would be awesome to have Morin and Myers out at the same time. 55 & 5.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Hagg’s bad. So are a lot of defensemen in the league. Good cheap 6/7 defensemen are hard to find. That’s why you had 2 teams competing for Brandon Manning as a UFA. That’s why Michael Del Zotto is entering his 11th season.

I suspect Hagg will bounce around until 30. Not because he’s good, but because of the lack of depth defensemen in the league. They’re like lousy lefty relievers in baseball. Teams need them even though they suck.

 

[deadhead]

So Hagg was horrible when he was not carried by Ghost ot Provorov. Shocker.

What do you expect from bottom of the roster players?

If Hagg could carry a defensive pair, he'd be a top 4 defenseman.
But it also shows you how limited Gudas was, he could only play well when matched with a puck mover.

There are worse options than Hagg, say Mark Staal playing as badly but costing $5.7M a year.

 

[Curufinwe]

Andreoff seems like a much more likely 14th forward option than Gabriel. Gabriel got a one year, two-way deal with an AHL salary of only $175K, while Andreoff got a two year, one way deal that pays him $750K.

Gabriel played in the NHL last season and Andreoff didn't, but that's only because Gabriel was with NJ and Andreoff was with TB. Two teams at opposite ends of the forward depth spectrum.

 

[dragonoffrost]

Provorov came up at 19, that doesn't seem exactly "late."
Sanheim struggled as a rookie, sent down and played much better when he returned, that sound like he came up a little early, if anything.
Myers struggled last spring, so he certainly wasn't called up "late," he's still on the learning curve.
Morin blew his opportunities, no one won a job from the trainer's room.

This fantasy that force feeding prospects helps them develop faster has no empirical support, if anything, it seems more likely to potentially ruin young players. Hard to think of a prospect ruined by an extra half season in the AHL.

It's RON! Enjoy Minnesota!

 

[dragonoffrost]

It would be awesome to have Morin and Myers out at the same time. 55 & 5.

Yahtzee!

 

[dragonoffrost]

Hagg’s bad. So are a lot of defensemen in the league. Good cheap 6/7 defensemen are hard to find. That’s why you had 2 teams competing for Brandon Manning as a UFA. That’s why Michael Del Zotto is entering his 11th season.

I suspect Hagg will bounce around until 30. Not because he’s good, but because of the lack of depth defensemen in the league. They’re like lousy lefty relievers in baseball. Teams need them even though they suck.

Del Zotto was a healthy scratch that won't get his name on the cup

 

[Rebels57]

Del Zotto was a healthy scratch that won't get his name on the cup

7 regular season games and 0 playoff games. I'd say that's fair.

 

[dragonoffrost]

7 regular season games and 0 playoff games. I'd say that's fair.

But he gets a ring

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Fletcher has already been quoted as saying he believes Andreoff is going to make a strong run at a roster spot. And his contract obviously backs that up.

 

[deadhead]

You need that 13th and maybe a 14th forward (on the road).
You don't want to fill those spots with a prospect or an expensive veteran.
Andreoff is exactly the kind of player for that role (and Pitlick if a prospect pushes him off the island).

 

[TCTC]

But he gets a ring

He also got his day with the Cup.

 

[mja]

People simply don't understand statistical distributions.
NHL talent is on the end of the right tail (doesn't matter what distribution, because pro talent is far out on the end).
The further you go, the thinner the talent, i.e., there are few Gretzkys but lots of 4th line forwards.

The difference in depth between bad teams and good teams is a slight movement toward the end of the tail.
Guys like VdV spend their career around or just above replacement level, his three years in GAR: +1.8, -4.7, +1.7
Varone: -2.2 in 28 games, -0.5 in 47 games, Vorobyev -0.4 in 15g,
Players decline - Lehtera, +9.1, +1.9, -1.0, -2.4 in 27g
Players bounce, Hagg was +1.0., -10.5, Voracek 1.4, 7.5, 3.5 last three years
GAR gives a general sense, but it is not an exact measure of player value

Ideally you'd like 18 guys who are above replacement, but since bottom six guys above replacement soon make $2-3M, you have to constantly find new, cheap talent to fill those bottom spots, and not all will be above replacement, especially after the fact.

Players who are replacement level or just above will always have jobs b/c there are teams that can't fill 18 spots with replacement level players (talent is unevenly spread around the league) and when injuries occur, below replacement level players are usually the replacements (b/c otherwise they'd already be in the NHL).

Odd, I thought the point was to assemble the best roster possible, not the most average roster possible. If only this team had young talent capable of playing over the likes of Robert Hagg, Brandon Manning, Andrew MacDonald, Chris Vande Velde, Dale Weise, and so on and so forth. It's not like Hakstol scratched a guy like Sanheim in favor of the first three, or that guys like Travis Konecny or Oskar Lindblom were scratched or demoted over the latter two or anything.

Feeding the condescending, contrarian, & know it all trolls is alive & well on this board I see. They’ll go away if y’all ignore them folks...

It's been tried and he's still posted reams of convoluted arguments. I only respond on the odd occasion to torture him anyway, to get back at him for making my eyes bleed on the regular.