2019-20 Roster Speculation Part 6.

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OkimLom

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Scary thought of the day - Cozens might already be a better center than Mittelstadt

It’s tough to say, just because of the limited amount of time we’ve seen of Cozens for the organization at playing center. But with that said, the only times we’ve seen Mittelstadt play center, it’s has been terrible.

We’ve got a ways to go though. Let’s hope one of them can grab hold of the position and lock it down.
 

Dreakon13

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Jun 28, 2010
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Okay for the record, we (me and you) have been having a discussion about a comment made. That’s what these are for. YOU are the one that said that we will agree to disagree which is similar as saying you aren’t open to changing your mind.
One instance of people disagreeing doesn't mean that any one side isn't open to changing their mind in general. Maybe a compelling argument wasn't made either way. "Agree to disagree" was less to be stubborn, and more to end the conversation on good terms.

If you want to continue making your case on the value of a 3rd round pick, feel free.

And since I’m the one that put the disclaimer up, at what point have I turned away from having a discussion about anything I said. Hell, I had a discussion about the disclaimer itself.
A disclaimer like that is a warning. Warning people about your posts and how to respond to them is not exactly what I'd consider an open minded approach to a public forum. Just because you carry on anyways doesn't change the nature of the disclaimer.
 
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La Cosa Nostra

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3rd rounders have value? Not really, not in this organization. I went through this the other night glad it is brought up. So a random general 3rd round pick is more valuable then a mid 20s middle 6 forward who has scored 50 goals the past 3 seasons? Definitely not.

Do people know the history of 3rd round picks in this franchise?

# of Buffalo Sabre 3rd round picks who ended up playing 80+ games in Buffalo.

Going in reverse chronological order.

2004 Andrej Sekera
2003 Clarke MacArthur
1997 Max Afinogenov
1986 Bob Corkum
1984 Ray Sheppard
1980 Sean McKenna
1979 Jacques Cloutier
1975 Terry Martin
1975 Gary McAdam
1971 Bill Hajt

So in virtually 50 years of drafting, the Sabres have literally drafted 10 players in franchise history in the 3rd round who ever played a full seasons worth of games. You can add Brayden McNabb in that group, he didn't play 80 games with us but he did become a legit top 4 dman and was drafted in the 3rd. But still, in the entire Sabres history we literally are averaging a "hit" in the 3rd once every 5 years. We haven't hit on a 3rd rounder in literally a decade (McNabb), and haven't hit on an actual long term 80+ game contributor in the 3rd in FIFTEEN YEARS (Sekera). 80+ games as counting as a hit is also an extremely low bar. We aren't using 80 goals or even 80 points as a barometer of success drafting in the 3rd but 80 GAMES.

I am sorry, if you think 3rd round picks are worth much at all in the NHL I am going to disappoint you. 3rd round picks in the NHL are not worth much. Trading quality players for 3rd round picks is how you trade long term high end contributors for scraps (See Lydman; Toni). You take a 3rd round pick when you must move a quality player who has a contract you just can't afford anymore like a Vesey or Sheary. But like I said, if given the chance you trade every 3rd round pick you have if you are getting even a Vesey or Sheary level player in return. They are legit middle 6 forwards capable of 15-20 goals and 40-45 points. 3rd round picks for this franchise usually amount to NOTHING. We literally have a 1 in 5 year success rate of drafting a 3rd round player who ends up playing just 1 full seasons worth of games. That is awful.


And comparing 3rd round picks in the NFL is totally incompatible with this debate. 3rd round picks in the NFL are generally seen as starters or at minimum immediate high end backups or rotational players. When you draft a 3rd round player in the NFL that player is expected at the very least to contribute right away if not become a starter by year 2 if not sooner. In the NHL, 3rd round picks are literally trade sweeteners, a shot and a prayer type draft picks and the most common return in the offseason and TDL for legit full time NHL players. That is it. There is no unbiased argument to be made saying that 3rd round picks are worth more then a player with 50 goals the past 3 years. Hell, the only players who have scored 50+ goals the past 3 years here are Eichel, Reinhart,...and soon to be Skinner. That is it. Okposo has 48 goals for us the past 3 years. Kane had 48 goals for us in just less then 2 seasons (still in that 2016-2019 time frame).

So yeah, it would be nice if people could recognize and just admit that the scarcity of players on this team capable of scoring 50 goals the last 3 years for us. Or the fact that getting said players for 3rd roumd picks is something you do every single time.
 

OkimLom

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Without generalizing, who called him a bust? I didn’t see it on here once. You’re arguing with no one.

Do you not like Joki or not agree with the trade?

Then you must've not been paying attention to the Nylander thread too much, hahaha. They might have not said the word bust, but there were plenty of people ready to walk away from the guy like he was a bust.
 
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OkimLom

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A disclaimer like that is a warning. Warning people about your posts and how to respond to them is not exactly what I'd consider an open minded approach to a public forum. Just because you carry on anyways doesn't change the nature of the disclaimer.

Any if you read the disclaimer, it said nothing about how I won't change my mind. It was all about how people shouldn't take an opinion that they may not agree with and read too much into it.
 

Doug Prishpreed

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May 1, 2013
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Then you must've not been paying attention to the Nylander thread too much, hahaha. They might have not said the word bust, but there were plenty of people ready to walk away from the guy like he was a bust.

Being ready to walk away for a variety of reasons is not the same as calling someone a bust at all. As most folks made clear in that thread.
 

Tatanka

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The poster in question seems to have a habit of exaggerating conversation points. Pay no mind.
neither here nor there but Hagel looked like he has improved his strength and was extremely noticeable last night. I think he has bottom 6 NHL potential. Not a knock on anyone as contracts are a limited resource but I can see what the scouts saw in the kid.
 
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GrierIsGod123

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Montour being out seems to ef everything up. I'd prefer to see Nelson next to Dahlin, instead of Risto at this point. Risto was the only player that could truly drag Dahlin down with him.

If Montour is out to start the year, here's my top 6:

Dahlin Jokiharju
McCabe Miller
Scandella (or Pilut) Nelson
 
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Dingo44

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Montour being out seems to ef everything up. I'd prefer to see Nelson next to Dahlin, instead of Risto at this point. Risto was the only player that could truly drag Dahlin down with him.

If Montour is out to start the year, here's my top 6:

Dahlin Jokiharju
McCabe Miller
Scandella (or Pilut) Nelson

Still not trying to read into anything, though it's interesting they put Reinhart into the other group.
 

Tatre

Jan 12, 2019
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No, not the Rasmuses pair!
Swedes line again, and Vesey a mainstay with Eichel is interesting
 

Chainshot

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neither here nor there but Hagel looked like he has improved his strength and was extremely noticeable last night. I think he has bottom 6 NHL potential. Not a knock on anyone as contracts are a limited resource but I can see what the scouts saw in the kid.

He has that element of jam in his game that the Sabres prospect pool is short on. It’ll be interesting to see how he comes along.
 

old kummelweck

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Nov 10, 2003
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Still not trying to read into anything, though it's interesting they put Reinhart into the other group.
I'm expecting to see TT with Mittelstadt in group B as a winger 'who can drive play'.

I wonder what they are looking at with that Cozens line. A few interesting hot takes there. One, Erod at RW where they have some depth issue, and two, Cozens with two more players with offensive flair to see if the chemistry with TT was a fluke or not.

I LOVE that swede line...
 
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old kummelweck

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Nov 10, 2003
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ERod at RW doesn't solve any depth issues, we need him to be the 2C
Not if Cozens or Asplund is the 2C. You may like him as the best option there, but you can't ignore there are players in the system that BUF is taking a look at as filling that role.
 

Djp

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Jul 28, 2012
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3rd rounders have value? Not really, not in this organization. I went through this the other night glad it is brought up. So a random general 3rd round pick is more valuable then a mid 20s middle 6 forward who has scored 50 goals the past 3 seasons? Definitely not.

Do people know the history of 3rd round picks in this franchise?

# of Buffalo Sabre 3rd round picks who ended up playing 80+ games in Buffalo.

Going in reverse chronological order.

2004 Andrej Sekera
2003 Clarke MacArthur
1997 Max Afinogenov
1986 Bob Corkum
1984 Ray Sheppard
1980 Sean McKenna
1979 Jacques Cloutier
1975 Terry Martin
1975 Gary McAdam
1971 Bill Hajt

So in virtually 50 years of drafting, the Sabres have literally drafted 10 players in franchise history in the 3rd round who ever played a full seasons worth of games. You can add Brayden McNabb in that group, he didn't play 80 games with us but he did become a legit top 4 dman and was drafted in the 3rd. But still, in the entire Sabres history we literally are averaging a "hit" in the 3rd once every 5 years. We haven't hit on a 3rd rounder in literally a decade (McNabb), and haven't hit on an actual long term 80+ game contributor in the 3rd in FIFTEEN YEARS (Sekera). 80+ games as counting as a hit is also an extremely low bar. We aren't using 80 goals or even 80 points as a barometer of success drafting in the 3rd but 80 GAMES.

I am sorry, if you think 3rd round picks are worth much at all in the NHL I am going to disappoint you. 3rd round picks in the NHL are not worth much. Trading quality players for 3rd round picks is how you trade long term high end contributors for scraps (See Lydman; Toni). You take a 3rd round pick when you must move a quality player who has a contract you just can't afford anymore like a Vesey or Sheary. But like I said, if given the chance you trade every 3rd round pick you have if you are getting even a Vesey or Sheary level player in return. They are legit middle 6 forwards capable of 15-20 goals and 40-45 points. 3rd round picks for this franchise usually amount to NOTHING. We literally have a 1 in 5 year success rate of drafting a 3rd round player who ends up playing just 1 full seasons worth of games. That is awful.


And comparing 3rd round picks in the NFL is totally incompatible with this debate. 3rd round picks in the NFL are generally seen as starters or at minimum immediate high end backups or rotational players. When you draft a 3rd round player in the NFL that player is expected at the very least to contribute right away if not become a starter by year 2 if not sooner. In the NHL, 3rd round picks are literally trade sweeteners, a shot and a prayer type draft picks and the most common return in the offseason and TDL for legit full time NHL players. That is it. There is no unbiased argument to be made saying that 3rd round picks are worth more then a player with 50 goals the past 3 years. Hell, the only players who have scored 50+ goals the past 3 years here are Eichel, Reinhart,...and soon to be Skinner. That is it. Okposo has 48 goals for us the past 3 years. Kane had 48 goals for us in just less then 2 seasons (still in that 2016-2019 time frame).

So yeah, it would be nice if people could recognize and just admit that the scarcity of players on this team capable of scoring 50 goals the last 3 years for us. Or the fact that getting said players for 3rd roumd picks is something you do every single time.

remember whehn you go back in time---3rd round picks were in the 50s--this mid 2nds today.

If you look at 3rd round picks from 2007-2012 you have on average around 5-6 NHL players beyond 200 games.

of those, not may I would consider star/.irreplaceable players. Some of them are good players but not spectacular and could they be easily replaced by a 22 yr old who was cheaper (likely yes).

i dont have a big issue in trading a 3rd. many on here think 3rd rounders will, be stars in the league. that just isnt true. 75% amount to nothing other than a call up. 20% are avg joe NHL players, under 5^ become ewally good players that is for 3rd round or later for skaters.
 
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La Cosa Nostra

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remember whehn you go back in time---3rd round picks were in the 50s--this mid 2nds today.

If you look at 3rd round picks from 2007-2012 you have on average around 5-6 NHL players beyond 200 games.

of those, not may I would consider star/.irreplaceable players. Some of them are good players but not spectacular and could they be easily replaced by a 22 yr old who was cheaper (likely yes).

i dont have a big issue in trading a 3rd. many on here think 3rd rounders will, be stars in the league. that just isnt true. 75% amount to nothing other than a call up. 20% are avg joe NHL players, under 5^ become ewally good players that is for 3rd round or later for skaters.

Good call, was not even thinking of that aspect. Now that makes our 3rd round success rate even lower. 2 of the 10 "hits" were both from the 1975 draft and they were the 44th and 53rd selections. Now a days that is a mid 2nd and a late 2nd. So that actually strengthens the argument even more that 3rd round picks should be used to acquire established NHL players.
 

Zip15

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Jun 3, 2009
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"Established" =/= "Good"

You should not trade a pick to acquire a net negative player - i.e., a player who will do more harm than good to your team - simply because he is "established" in the league.
 

GrierIsGod123

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Oct 22, 2009
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"Established" =/= "Good"

You should not trade a pick to acquire a net negative player - i.e., a player who will do more harm than good to your team - simply because he is "established" in the league.
Probably why no one has traded for Ristolainen, let alone given up value for him.
 
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