Speculation: 2019-20 Roster, Cap, Trade Discussion (MOD WARNING POST #542)

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Anaheim4ever

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Manson seems like he's starting to realize he needs to play like an enforcer since his skills just aren't there this year.
If Guhle starts to progress pretty well over next few years while Manson continues to suck it makes the expansion draft really interesting.
 

Paul4587

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Wouldn't say Montour hasn't been able to translate his talent to NHL production tbh. 45th among defenseman in scoring the last two seasons while playing on teams that were either 3rd last (Anaheim) or 2nd last (Buffalo) in scoring the last two seasons.

Yeah 35 points at the NHL is not bad given the circumstances. Guhle has never even hit that amount in both the AHL and WHL (although he would have hit it in his last junior year had he not missed games).

Montour was a flawed player but he’s still so much better than our 4th best Dman is currently. We will see how the trade plays out in the future but right now we are a worse team for it.
 

duckpuck

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Wouldn't say Montour hasn't been able to translate his talent to NHL production tbh. 45th among defenseman in scoring the last two seasons while playing on teams that were either 3rd last (Anaheim) or 2nd last (Buffalo) in scoring the last two seasons.

Yeah 35 points at the NHL is not bad given the circumstances. Guhle has never even hit that amount in both the AHL and WHL (although he would have hit it in his last junior year had he not missed games).

Montour was a flawed player but he’s still so much better than our 4th best Dman is currently. We will see how the trade plays out in the future but right now we are a worse team for it.

Because for a defenseman, points are the only thing that matter?

I said Montour has not consistently translated his talent into production. Point production is one metric - and he's been a bit inconsistent there as well. But you have to play defense too. His overall game has been flawed, inconsistent, and not commensurate with his perceived talent. That could be due to coaching and system - time will tell.
 

mightyquack

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Because for a defenseman, points are the only thing that matter?

I said Montour has not consistently translated his talent into production. Point production is one metric - and he's been a bit inconsistent there as well. But you have to play defense too. His overall game has been flawed, inconsistent, and not commensurate with his perceived talent. That could be due to coaching and system - time will tell.
Point production is a pretty good metric for production when it comes to offensive defencemen, yes. Not sure it can be argued his point production is inconsistent, the stats show that is one of the most consistent parts of his game - especially given he's played on awful offensive teams. And I don't think anyone is denying Montour had some defensive warts, but at the same time - how many defencemen are the finished product after 2 NHL seasons? I still remember how much Fowler struggled defensively in his first 2 NHL seasons, then BB came in and really helped transform that part of his game - no reason to believe the same couldn't happen with a young defenceman like Montour.

Guhle will not be a good replacement for Montour, at least from an offensive standpoint, he just doesn't have it in his game IMO. Defensively is hard to say, but he doesn't look like an upgrade to me on Montour so far (granted small sample size as Guhle can't stay on the ice for longer then 4 games at a time).

The extra asset we gained from the Montour trade will not mean a whole lot when we have to trade a similar valued asset (or as the Faulk rumours showed, a higher valued asset) to acquire someone to replace Montour.
 
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duckpuck

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Point production is a pretty good metric for production when it comes to offensive defencemen, yes. Not sure it can be argued his point production is inconsistent, the stats show that is one of the most consistent parts of his game - especially given he's played on awful offensive teams. And I don't think anyone is denying Montour had some defensive warts, but at the same time - how many defencemen are the finished product after 2 NHL seasons? I still remember how much Fowler struggled defensively in his first 2 NHL seasons, then BB came in and really helped transform that part of his game - no reason to believe the same couldn't happen with a young defenceman like Montour.

Guhle will not be a good replacement for Montour, at least from an offensive standpoint, he just doesn't have it in his game IMO. Defensively is hard to say, but he doesn't look like an upgrade to me on Montour so far (granted small sample size as Guhle can't stay on the ice for longer then 4 games at a time).

The extra asset we gained from the Montour trade will not mean a whole lot when we have to trade a similar valued asset (or as the Faulk rumours showed, a higher valued asset) to acquire someone to replace Montour.

Point production is one metric, but for a defenseman not the only or even most important one. To play a top 4 role, you have to be able to play defense. And that apparently was the problem - the ducks players and coaches didn't like the way montour played defense. You're right that Guhle seems to have less offensive upside than Montour - but Guhle can still be a more useful player if his overall game is better (or equally useful player perhaps).

An analogy between Sprong and Montour seems apt. Sprong scores goals (generates points), but the rest of his game was flawed to the point where the coaches didn't want to play him (even on a goal starved team). It seems Montour was viewed in the same way - and then went to salary arbitration which is a way to Murray's permanent shyt list.

Saying the extra assets we acquired does not "mean a whole lot" because we have to acquire a Montour replacement misses the point. The ducks had apparently concluded Montour was not going to be here long term. So at that point you need to replace him, no matter what.

If you want to criticize the ducks strategy or asset management, the real mistake was keeping Montour rather than Theodore. At the time, Montour seemed to be playing better, but things did not work out that way.
 
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bsu

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Montour is better defensively than Guhle RIGHT NOW. I don't know how you can even argue that Guhle strength is skating real fast in a straight line. Montour had mobility and is 2x as physical as the taller Guhle.
 

Paul4587

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Montour struggled defensively last year because he was no longer being sheltered and was being asked to do heavy lifting in a terrible defensive system. Before last year when he was getting the type of sheltered minutes Guhle was getting there were hardly any complaints about his defensive play.

That’s why when evaluating what players are doing and making comparisons, context matters.
 

DavidBL

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I like Kreider, too, but Hoffman's shot, especially on the PP, is lethal, which we need.
Id say Hoffman is likely the better player. Hes had more success to this point but if I was GM if want to be absolutely sure he'd fit in the room with his rumored issues. Id say Kreiser is safer.
 

MilesNewton

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Is Guhle possibly being rated too high for this early in his career? Any idea what his injury was and will he be back in the line-up?
 

Sean Garrity

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Is Guhle possibly being rated too high for this early in his career? Any idea what his injury was and will he be back in the line-up?

Who is rating Guhle high? It was a lower body injury, and he was removed from IR on the 19th. No timetable that I've heard of for his return.
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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Id say Hoffman is likely the better player. Hes had more success to this point but if I was GM if want to be absolutely sure he'd fit in the room with his rumored issues. Id say Kreiser is safer.
Zucker kreider and hoffman would all make a lot of sense for us.

Idk what wed offer up tho? Our pick would have to be lottery protected imo, if we moved 1st
 

Hockey Duckie

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Point production is a pretty good metric for production when it comes to offensive defencemen, yes. Not sure it can be argued his point production is inconsistent, the stats show that is one of the most consistent parts of his game - especially given he's played on awful offensive teams. And I don't think anyone is denying Montour had some defensive warts, but at the same time - how many defencemen are the finished product after 2 NHL seasons? I still remember how much Fowler struggled defensively in his first 2 NHL seasons, then BB came in and really helped transform that part of his game - no reason to believe the same couldn't happen with a young defenceman like Montour.

Guhle will not be a good replacement for Montour, at least from an offensive standpoint, he just doesn't have it in his game IMO. Defensively is hard to say, but he doesn't look like an upgrade to me on Montour so far (granted small sample size as Guhle can't stay on the ice for longer then 4 games at a time).

The extra asset we gained from the Montour trade will not mean a whole lot when we have to trade a similar valued asset (or as the Faulk rumours showed, a higher valued asset) to acquire someone to replace Montour.

From an asset POV, we got two assets for Montour. On the surface, we got a replacement level NHL prospect defenseman and a late first round pick, which turned out to be LW Tracey. I was surprised to see Monty traded when we did trade him. On an individual observance, we lost Monty's offense. On a team observance, the team improved scoring and defense without Monty, after he was traded away. Based upon that reflection after the season, I thought we won the trade. (I provide an excel chart for the coaching splits. Monty played in 6 games under Bob.)

2018-19 Ducks season
CoachGamesWLOTLPts GFGF/GRankGAGA/GRank
Total8235371080 1962.3931st2483.0219th
Bob261411129 722.7721st692.655th
RC562126951 1242.2131st1793.2022nd
[TBODY] [/TBODY]


While Monty does produce offense, the coaching staff might have information that we fans aren't privy to seeing that made Monty's defensive play made him expendable - especially when the return is a prospect at an NHL replacement level and a first round pick.

Fast forward to this season. After nine games, the Ducks' own the best GAA at 1.78. Offensively, we're ranked 22nd at 2.56 GF rate. So far, we're producing similarly to how Bob changed the team when he took over as head coach. The only personnel we added to the roster in the off-season was fourth line winger Deslauriers.

All this talk about wanting Montour back seems to be oblivious on how the Ducks have played without him last year and this season. Montour has yet to play a single NHL game this season. Guhle has played in 4 contests. Why is there a discussion at the moment when Montour hasn't suited up at all?

This Monty thing seems odd. GM Bob moved Fowler off the top pairing and Fowler's now blossoming. Also, Lindholm is racking up points as well. Both defensemen are in the Ducks' top-5 in scoring this early in the season. Heck, we have four defenseman in our top-10 scoring for the team right now! We play Fowler on the PP, but sit him down in favor of Larsson - the bland, efficient Larsson. I don't hear a lot of Duck fans complaining about Fowler not playing on the PK. The problem isn't generating points from the defense if we're looking to add more scoring. The problem is not generating more points from our forwards as well as the lack of play on the PP.

Anyhow, Guhle has 2 points in 4 games this season. Monty has yet to play a game. If our team continues to play defense this way with our 22nd ranked offense, we're still going to be winning a lot more games. We're 6-3-0 right now with such a sub-standard offense and brilliant defense. As for sustainability, we can look to the 26 games played under GM Murray when he took over as head coach. The numbers are similar (slightly behind in scoring and vastly better in GA/game) from last year to this year.

Okay... now back to the two assets. Guhle is considered an NHL replacement level defenseman. GM Murray added an forward prospect asset in Tracey, who is probably years away. We're drafting forwards far better nowadays than long ago. GM Murray increased his leverage if he feels the need to trade for a defenseman. While it's still early into the season, the current seven defensemen are contributing to the low GA/game average. If their play remains the same or improves, then GM Murray doesn't have to make a move out of necessity. If an opportunity does come up where a good defenseman becomes available before or at the trade deadline, then at least GM Murray increased his asset pool to help land that good defenseman as it could be possible that Tracey could be dangled or possibly a draft pick so GM Murray doesn't disturb his current roster.

Right now, GM Murray is winning the gamble. The GAA is tops in the league, the team is 2nd in the Pacific division, Guhle has a scoring rate of 0.5 ppg in four games and a +2 rating, and prospect Tracey has 7 points in five games since being returned to his WHL club. Lindholm and Fowler are scoring more. Monty has yet to put on skates this year.
 

bsu

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From an asset POV, we got two assets for Montour. On the surface, we got a replacement level NHL prospect defenseman and a late first round pick, which turned out to be LW Tracey. I was surprised to see Monty traded when we did trade him. On an individual observance, we lost Monty's offense. On a team observance, the team improved scoring and defense without Monty, after he was traded away. Based upon that reflection after the season, I thought we won the trade. (I provide an excel chart for the coaching splits. Monty played in 6 games under Bob.)

2018-19 Ducks season
CoachGamesWLOTLPtsGFGF/GRankGAGA/GRank
Total82353710801962.3931st2483.0219th
Bob261411129722.7721st692.655th
RC5621269511242.2131st1793.2022nd
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
While Monty does produce offense, the coaching staff might have information that we fans aren't privy to seeing that made Monty's defensive play made him expendable - especially when the return is a prospect at an NHL replacement level and a first round pick. Lets hope Tracey pans out.

Fast forward to this season. After nine games, the Ducks' own the best GAA at 1.78. Offensively, we're ranked 22nd at 2.56 GF rate. So far, we're producing similarly to how Bob changed the team when he took over as head coach. The only personnel we added to the roster in the off-season was fourth line winger Deslauriers.

All this talk about wanting Montour back seems to be oblivious on how the Ducks have played without him last year and this season. Montour has yet to play a single NHL game this season. Guhle has played in 4 contests. Why is there a discussion at the moment when Montour hasn't suited up at all?

This Monty thing seems odd. GM Bob moved Fowler off the top pairing and Fowler's now blossoming. Also, Lindholm is racking up points as well. Both defensemen are in the Ducks' top-5 in scoring this early in the season. Heck, we have four defenseman in our top-10 scoring for the team right now! We play Fowler on the PP, but sit him down in favor of Larsson - the bland, efficient Larsson. I don't hear a lot of Duck fans complaining about Fowler not playing on the PK. The problem isn't generating points from the defense if we're looking to add more scoring. The problem is not generating more points from our forwards as well as the lack of play on the PP.

Anyhow, Guhle has 2 points in 4 games this season. Monty has yet to play a game. If our team continues to play defense this way with our 22nd ranked offense, we're still going to be winning a lot more games. We're 6-3-0 right now with such a sub-standard offense and brilliant defense. As for sustainability, we can look to the 26 games played under GM Murray when he took over as head coach. The numbers are similar (slightly behind in scoring and vastly better in GA/game) from last year to this year.

Okay... now back to the two assets. Guhle is considered an NHL replacement level defenseman. GM Murray added an forward prospect asset in Tracey, who is probably years away. We're drafting forwards far better nowadays than long ago. GM Murray increased his leverage if he feels the need to trade for a defenseman. While it's still early into the season, the current seven defensemen are contributing to the low GA/game average. If their play remains the same or improves, then GM Murray doesn't have to make a move out of necessity. If an opportunity does come up where a good defenseman becomes available before or at the trade deadline, then at least GM Murray increased his asset pool to help land that good defenseman as it could be possible that Tracey could be dangled or possibly a draft pick so GM Murray doesn't disturb his current roster.

Right now, GM Murray is winning the gamble. The GAA is tops in the league, the team is 2nd in the Pacific division, Guhle has a scoring rate of 0.5 ppg in four games and a +2 rating, and prospect Tracey has 7 points in five games since being returned to his WHL club. Lindholm and Fowler are scoring more. Monty has yet to put on skates this year.

All of that to prove that we should have kept Montour to try him with a relevant system... Everyone was playing bad under Carlyle and guess what everyone is playing better without him.

Most of the points you tried to make was not because we traded Montour, it was because we fired our cancer. The whole team gave up until Carlyle was fired. Guhles peak will be Montour's floor.

Lets all hope Tracey works out because if he doesn't become a NHL regular that was a real bad trade. Montour would be incredible in the system we are running it literally caters right to his strengths.
 
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Paul4587

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I think he’s actually rated too low by many here. He has shown good stuff so far when healthy and I see a lot of people posting “all he does well is skate in a straight line”

I think it’s somewhere in between. Some are noticing all the good he does while ignoring the defensive mistakes he is making and ignoring how incredibly sheltered he is. But yeah others are far too critical.

The role he’s playing right now (when he’s actually on the ice) though is incredibly hard to judge him in. He’s essentially playing the same role Luca Sbisa did in 2011-12 for us. He’s playing very sheltered minutes alongside a very good defenseman in Fowler where he is not tasked with difficult defensive matchups or defensive zone starts. In 11-12 Sbisa was playing the exact same role alongside Visnovsky and looked very good in doing so. Many were proclaiming he was about to take the next step and that he had surpassed Fowler where as others noticed that he still didn’t think the game very well and that he was gift wrapped incredibly easy minutes alongside a very good defenseman which masked his deficiencies.
 

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I think it’s somewhere in between. Some are noticing all the good he does while ignoring the defensive mistakes he is making and ignoring how incredibly sheltered he is. But yeah others are far too critical.

The role he’s playing right now (when he’s actually on the ice) though is incredibly hard to judge him in. He’s essentially playing the same role Luca Sbisa did in 2011-12 for us. He’s playing very sheltered minutes alongside a very good defenseman in Fowler where he is not tasked with difficult defensive matchups or defensive zone starts. In 11-12 Sbisa was playing the exact same role alongside Visnovsky and looked very good in doing so. Many were proclaiming he was about to take the next step and that he had surpassed Fowler where as others noticed that he still didn’t think the game very well and that he was gift wrapped incredibly easy minutes alongside a very good defenseman which masked his deficiencies.


I think hes done well w/ the mins given.... and I think hes been the best partner for fowler so far this year. If the continue to receive those mins from eakins… they should be fine both are great skaters that will win a lot of lose puck battles and dump ins... and if they never have to start in the dzone… itll be pretty difficult to get control and trap them in the dzone.

Id say im less impressed with guhle than I was w/ sbisa back then... sbisa to me was a full package dmen, had all the tools you could ever want for a dmen… but as we found out he didn't exactly have the tool box.

Guhle still a work in progress, but eakins is the right coach to kinda get his confidence up and play him in the right situations.
 

Paul4587

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I think hes done well w/ the mins given.... and I think hes been the best partner for fowler so far this year. If the continue to receive those mins from eakins… they should be fine both are great skaters that will win a lot of lose puck battles and dump ins... and if they never have to start in the dzone… itll be pretty difficult to get control and trap them in the dzone.

Id say im less impressed with guhle than I was w/ sbisa back then... sbisa to me was a full package dmen, had all the tools you could ever want for a dmen… but as we found out he didn't exactly have the tool box.

Guhle still a work in progress, but eakins is the right coach to kinda get his confidence up and play him in the right situations.

the problem with having to shelter that second pairing so much is that our third pairing gets exposed and have to play key PK minutes and take on defensive responsibilities they shouldn’t have to.

Ideally we get a good partner for Cam and push Guhle down the lineup to the third pairing where he, Larsson and MDZ can rotate.
 

Hockey Duckie

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All of that to prove that we should have kept Montour to try him with a relevant system... Everyone was playing bad under Carlyle and guess what everyone is playing better without him.

Most of the points you tried to make was not because we traded Montour, it was because we fired our cancer. The whole team gave up until Carlyle was fired. Guhles peak will be Montour's floor.

Lets all hope Tracey works out because if he doesn't become a NHL regular that was a real bad trade. Montour would be incredible in the system we are running it literally caters right to his strengths.

I have no idea what Guhle's peak is. I know Monty is a "playground" defenseman with speed who's got an offensive mind. Guhle possess that same explosiveness in skating, and probably is a faster skater than Monty - this according to Fowler's analysis of Guhle in the pre-season articles. What you're omitting is we don't know how good Monty can be in a "structured" defense. And that could very well be the reason why Monty became expendable, with Buffalo offering a comparable defenseman as well as a first round pick.

Granted, there are other underlying factors with trading away Monty such as a future contract renewal that Monty might demand too much from Anaheim.

I'm not about absolutes like you are in stating, "Guhles [sic] peak will be Montour's floor." I simply reflect at particular times. At the end of the season, the Ducks made out. After 9 games, the Ducks still made out. Guhle's tenure as a Ducks probably will be longer than Montour's stay in Anaheim due to financial cost. Monty will be a RFA after this season, who's already earning #3.3 mil this season. Guhle will be finishing his ELC this season and is earning $0.6 mil this season.

Also, Tracey is an asset. Tracey doesn't have to pan out under the Ducks to be useful. Tracey can be used as a trade asset himself, especially if he can rack up points in the WHL. So far, he's doing just that. Tracey or "Tracey +" could also net the Ducks a better defenseman than Monty. Or we can trade away a more developed forward prospect knowing we have a future replacement in Tracey.

Your scope feels very absolute and limited. Monty may just break out, but so far this season he's broken. How can you vouch for a player that isn't available to be put onto the ice? At least Guhle's put in four games and 2 points already. If Monty's floor is not playing on the ice so far this season, then I think Guhle's already surpassed that threshold. Am I the only person that acknowledges that Monty hasn't played a single NHL game this season? The last update on Monty was on Oct 2, 2019. The time table for his return is three to four weeks. So right now, the Ducks have made out as both players aren't able to play. (Roto World's update on Monty: LINK )
 

bsu

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I have no idea what Guhle's peak is. I know Monty is a "playground" defenseman with speed who's got an offensive mind. Guhle possess that same explosiveness in skating, and probably is a faster skater than Monty - this according to Fowler's analysis of Guhle in the pre-season articles. What you're omitting is we don't know how good Monty can be in a "structured" defense. And that could very well be the reason why Monty became expendable, with Buffalo offering a comparable defenseman as well as a first round pick.

Granted, there are other underlying factors with trading away Monty such as a future contract renewal that Monty might demand too much from Anaheim.

I'm not about absolutes like you are in stating, "Guhles [sic] peak will be Montour's floor." I simply reflect at particular times. At the end of the season, the Ducks made out. After 9 games, the Ducks still made out. Guhle's tenure as a Ducks probably will be longer than Montour's stay in Anaheim due to financial cost. Monty will be a RFA after this season, who's already earning #3.3 mil this season. Guhle will be finishing his ELC this season and is earning $0.6 mil this season.

Also, Tracey is an asset. Tracey doesn't have to pan out under the Ducks to be useful. Tracey can be used as a trade asset himself, especially if he can rack up points in the WHL. So far, he's doing just that. Tracey or "Tracey +" could also net the Ducks a better defenseman than Monty. Or we can trade away a more developed forward prospect knowing we have a future replacement in Tracey.

Your scope feels very absolute and limited. Monty may just break out, but so far this season he's broken. How can you vouch for a player that isn't available to be put onto the ice? At least Guhle's put in four games and 2 points already. If Monty's floor is not playing on the ice so far this season, then I think Guhle's already surpassed that threshold. Am I the only person that acknowledges that Monty hasn't played a single NHL game this season? The last update on Monty was on Oct 2, 2019. The time table for his return is three to four weeks. So right now, the Ducks have made out as both players aren't able to play. (Roto World's update on Monty: LINK )

That would be a huge plus.
 
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