branmuffin17
Registered User
Thought I'd make a separate speculation thread for how next year might look.
In just a little over a week, this team has gone from tank/high draft pick target to completely unsure what's going on. 3 wins in 4 games, while seeing significantly stronger play overall does that.
On top of that, it puts the Ducks' trade deadline status of sellers into contention. The almost-assured re-signing of Silf at likely $5.25 x 5 years is the opposite of selling.
This doesn't mean GMBM might not still pull off some trades, but everything is rumor and speculation right now. This also creates strife, unrest, and rising tempers within the HF Ducks fanbase =P
The preference of some armchair GMs is to tank for a year or two, restock and get younger, then push for the cup. This is unlikely to happen, at least intentionally. From everything we've heard, ownership wants this team to be consistently competitive. Expect this team to try.
In our favor is the better potential play away from Carlyle, as well as possibly seeing our days of insane man-games lost due to injury being put behind us. This team is better than bottom 3rd or bottom 1/2 (IMO).
Possible trades:
From the fanbase, the names most consistently thrown out in an effort to save money/cap space, gain futures, and get younger include D Cam Fowler ($6.5 x 7 years), C Adam Henrique ($5.825 x 5 years), and RW Jacob Silfverberg (free agent or reported/future signing $5.25 x 5 years). Even G Ryan Miller (free agent) has had some rumors float, but high probability it's false.
2019-20 NHL Roster & Salaries (without potential trades considered, only those currently signed for 2019-20):
2018-19 Salary Cap: $79.5M
Trade Considerations, Filling In The Gaps
The goalie spot isn't a huge concern right now. However, the 2 D spots are concerning. People are suggesting trading Fowler. Unless we get someone roughly equal/serviceable on D back in that trade, then we're going to rely on any combination of 3 AHL players or free agent signings to complete our D. This is not a good idea. We can speculate all we want about who we might be able to trade for, but until that actually happens, we need to consider that Fowler is a part of the team.
If we agree for now that our 4 core D are to stay, then likely fill-ins for the last 2 spots are up between Larsson, Megna, Welinski, Mahura, and possibly Dotchin if he's re-signed...or we sign a free agent.
Trading Henrique is somewhat equally questionable, as our center depth is lacking with the decline of Kesler. Steel (AHL) is an option, but is untested. Other AHL centers are unlikely to make an impact. Lundestrom (SHL) is another option, but again untested. Possible situation here would be to trade C for C. We will not consider Kesler being bought out, as that is unlikely to happen.
Finally, trading Silfverberg (if we don't in fact re-sign him, which is unlikely due to all the reports from respectable groups) would actually make the most sense. Right now, we can fill out all of our wings with players that have seen extended looks on the Ducks roster. Trading Silf means only a smaller gap is opened. This is okay, and not okay. Technically, Terry, Sprong, and Jones aren't locks for being full roster players. Sprong SHOULD stay up, and we SHOULD give Terry and Jones solid looks. But if they aren't working out like we'd want, what then? And losing Silf means needing another AHL, trade, or signing. In any case, he's the best option for a move.
2019-20 Salary Cap: ?
Let's not assume a large increase in the cap. Let's just keep it at $80M. 3 additional roster spaces need to come from the AHL, trades, or signings. If we ride the cap, that's $5.722M spread between 3 players. If we get the D from the AHL (e.g. Larsson + Welinski? one would have to play on off-side), and let's assume we either use Boyle as main backup, or re-sign Miller for one more year at $2M, that allows us to stay under the cap.
In the chance Eaves is still being considered on the roster, the total is $77.428M, leaving us with $2.57 to fill out the 3 spots (4 with an extra body). This makes things extremely tight. Eaves is really the odd one out, and unfortunately it would be best if we could buy out his last year.
Summary
In the end, trading one of Fowler, Henrique, or Silf (before signing) will give us some cap flexibility and breathing room, but in most cases leaves us with gaps of some kind. These would have to be hockey trades, with an equally serviceable player coming back. $ savings there would then be questionable. It is possible to save maybe $2M, if we additionally trade a prospect (reasonable) or picks (not a good idea) and get someone cheaper/younger back that can at least fill a roster spot.
However, until these trades actually happen, we can at least theorize on how next year's roster may shape up.
Thoughts?
In just a little over a week, this team has gone from tank/high draft pick target to completely unsure what's going on. 3 wins in 4 games, while seeing significantly stronger play overall does that.
On top of that, it puts the Ducks' trade deadline status of sellers into contention. The almost-assured re-signing of Silf at likely $5.25 x 5 years is the opposite of selling.
This doesn't mean GMBM might not still pull off some trades, but everything is rumor and speculation right now. This also creates strife, unrest, and rising tempers within the HF Ducks fanbase =P
The preference of some armchair GMs is to tank for a year or two, restock and get younger, then push for the cup. This is unlikely to happen, at least intentionally. From everything we've heard, ownership wants this team to be consistently competitive. Expect this team to try.
In our favor is the better potential play away from Carlyle, as well as possibly seeing our days of insane man-games lost due to injury being put behind us. This team is better than bottom 3rd or bottom 1/2 (IMO).
Possible trades:
From the fanbase, the names most consistently thrown out in an effort to save money/cap space, gain futures, and get younger include D Cam Fowler ($6.5 x 7 years), C Adam Henrique ($5.825 x 5 years), and RW Jacob Silfverberg (free agent or reported/future signing $5.25 x 5 years). Even G Ryan Miller (free agent) has had some rumors float, but high probability it's false.
2019-20 NHL Roster & Salaries (without potential trades considered, only those currently signed for 2019-20):
- C: Getzlaf, Henrique, Kesler, Rowney
- LW: Rakell, Ritchie, Shore (keeping Shore here for now), Jones (?)
- RW: Perry, Silfverberg (assumed), Kase, Terry, Sprong
- LD: Lindholm, Fowler
- RD: Manson, Montour
- G: Gibson
- Missing for a full roster: 2 D, 1 G
2018-19 Salary Cap: $79.5M
Trade Considerations, Filling In The Gaps
The goalie spot isn't a huge concern right now. However, the 2 D spots are concerning. People are suggesting trading Fowler. Unless we get someone roughly equal/serviceable on D back in that trade, then we're going to rely on any combination of 3 AHL players or free agent signings to complete our D. This is not a good idea. We can speculate all we want about who we might be able to trade for, but until that actually happens, we need to consider that Fowler is a part of the team.
If we agree for now that our 4 core D are to stay, then likely fill-ins for the last 2 spots are up between Larsson, Megna, Welinski, Mahura, and possibly Dotchin if he's re-signed...or we sign a free agent.
Trading Henrique is somewhat equally questionable, as our center depth is lacking with the decline of Kesler. Steel (AHL) is an option, but is untested. Other AHL centers are unlikely to make an impact. Lundestrom (SHL) is another option, but again untested. Possible situation here would be to trade C for C. We will not consider Kesler being bought out, as that is unlikely to happen.
Finally, trading Silfverberg (if we don't in fact re-sign him, which is unlikely due to all the reports from respectable groups) would actually make the most sense. Right now, we can fill out all of our wings with players that have seen extended looks on the Ducks roster. Trading Silf means only a smaller gap is opened. This is okay, and not okay. Technically, Terry, Sprong, and Jones aren't locks for being full roster players. Sprong SHOULD stay up, and we SHOULD give Terry and Jones solid looks. But if they aren't working out like we'd want, what then? And losing Silf means needing another AHL, trade, or signing. In any case, he's the best option for a move.
2019-20 Salary Cap: ?
Let's not assume a large increase in the cap. Let's just keep it at $80M. 3 additional roster spaces need to come from the AHL, trades, or signings. If we ride the cap, that's $5.722M spread between 3 players. If we get the D from the AHL (e.g. Larsson + Welinski? one would have to play on off-side), and let's assume we either use Boyle as main backup, or re-sign Miller for one more year at $2M, that allows us to stay under the cap.
In the chance Eaves is still being considered on the roster, the total is $77.428M, leaving us with $2.57 to fill out the 3 spots (4 with an extra body). This makes things extremely tight. Eaves is really the odd one out, and unfortunately it would be best if we could buy out his last year.
Summary
In the end, trading one of Fowler, Henrique, or Silf (before signing) will give us some cap flexibility and breathing room, but in most cases leaves us with gaps of some kind. These would have to be hockey trades, with an equally serviceable player coming back. $ savings there would then be questionable. It is possible to save maybe $2M, if we additionally trade a prospect (reasonable) or picks (not a good idea) and get someone cheaper/younger back that can at least fill a roster spot.
However, until these trades actually happen, we can at least theorize on how next year's roster may shape up.
Thoughts?
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