Prospect Info: 2019-20 Prospects Thread Part II (CHL, NCAA, Junior A, Europe)

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AnimalMother73

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Yep title was misleading. He simply focused on two college prospects and the benefits of waiting and using the college route
 

tigervixxxen

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I probably shouldn’t go there but I have nothing better to do, so sorry.

Yeah the Avs should get credit for adding talent, which extra picks and a massive windfall of a trade helps. But it’s how they transition that talent marks if they have a functioning system much less a model one. If they can get Sampo to the NHL matters more than keeping him in the NCAA (which I agree with). Kennedy just wanted to talk about a couple NCAA players is pretty much the basis of that article, so I get it.

The fact that all their second year pros (Lewis, Dickinson, Barron, Anderson, Shvyrev) plus keeping Henry on the 4th line in addition to the requisite trip to the ECHL and they traded away their third year pros means they have not figured it out. The argument to that is all those dudes just weren’t good enough, which I’ve heard for at least 7 years now and there’s always hope for the next group including guys like Mutala. Yeah it’s tough for all non-premium prospects but the fact that the Avs have turned out just one own drafted second rounder (Galiardi and I guess one could argue Pickard sort of) in their history should be a big concern.

I get the conservative first year approach but that means they have to be equally as pro-active in the second and third years in regards to planning for an opportunity and path to becoming a NHLer. A player basically has that three years until their waiver exemption is up regardless of their age or pedigree to stick. Exceptions like Graves require a fresh start somewhere and he even cleared waivers once. Bowers and Timmins are not going to be on the roster this fall because they didn’t get a callup. I doubt they will even pencil Kaut it but he has a chance at least. Hopefully there’s a plan to get all three of them major callups so they can transition in second year pro (Kaut does have 2 waiver exempt years left), which is the most important year to transitioning to becoming a regular in the NHL (I have done a little research on this and what it takes for second rounders to make it which is where the Avs greatly lag behind the league average 30% success rate). They absolutely can’t wait around and watch AHL vets get the call next year and hope for a couple desperation games in the spring.

This is where patience can’t be confused with a lack of plan, which I still find as a major concern with the development system. Delaying getting guys in the AHL and starting that clock seems to be a good idea. The AHL should be a springboard more than anything. I believe some time is helpful to anyone but players with a future absolutely can’t stay there long. There has to be a plan to move them along and it needs to be progressive and proactive in the second and third years.
 

Foppa2118

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It's still hard to tell what the main problem is. Amateur scouting or development. It's likely a little of both, though I've always thought drafting was their bigger problem.

That said, Kaut looking as NHL ready as he did in his callup is a sign that both did well with regard to him. Though I think you have to give a little more credit to development with Kaut, since he had more room to grow to be NHL ready.

I think they've made some small incremental improvements to both the amateur scouting and development, so maybe we're starting to see the fruits of that now.

The question is whether Kaut will remain an exception, or if they'll have luck with other non top 10 picks like Bowers or Greer (seems destined for trade). I think Timmins will most likely be an NHLer he's too good. Then can they turn any of their long shot prospects into NHLers like Anderson, Shvyryov, Henry, Helleson, Ranta, Beaucage, Saigeon, Stienberg, etc?

If they can just get one or two NHLers out of that long shot group, it would be a welcome improvement, and a sign they really have improved their development/drafting, because they basically couldn't turn out any NHLers for a long time in that group.
 

Northern Avs Fan

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I probably shouldn’t go there but I have nothing better to do, so sorry.

Yeah the Avs should get credit for adding talent, which extra picks and a massive windfall of a trade helps. But it’s how they transition that talent marks if they have a functioning system much less a model one. If they can get Sampo to the NHL matters more than keeping him in the NCAA (which I agree with). Kennedy just wanted to talk about a couple NCAA players is pretty much the basis of that article, so I get it.

The fact that all their second year pros (Lewis, Dickinson, Barron, Anderson, Shvyrev) plus keeping Henry on the 4th line in addition to the requisite trip to the ECHL and they traded away their third year pros means they have not figured it out. The argument to that is all those dudes just weren’t good enough, which I’ve heard for at least 7 years now and there’s always hope for the next group including guys like Mutala. Yeah it’s tough for all non-premium prospects but the fact that the Avs have turned out just one own drafted second rounder (Galiardi and I guess one could argue Pickard sort of) in their history should be a big concern.

I get the conservative first year approach but that means they have to be equally as pro-active in the second and third years in regards to planning for an opportunity and path to becoming a NHLer. A player basically has that three years until their waiver exemption is up regardless of their age or pedigree to stick. Exceptions like Graves require a fresh start somewhere and he even cleared waivers once. Bowers and Timmins are not going to be on the roster this fall because they didn’t get a callup. I doubt they will even pencil Kaut it but he has a chance at least. Hopefully there’s a plan to get all three of them major callups so they can transition in second year pro (Kaut does have 2 waiver exempt years left), which is the most important year to transitioning to becoming a regular in the NHL (I have done a little research on this and what it takes for second rounders to make it which is where the Avs greatly lag behind the league average 30% success rate). They absolutely can’t wait around and watch AHL vets get the call next year and hope for a couple desperation games in the spring.

This is where patience can’t be confused with a lack of plan, which I still find as a major concern with the development system. Delaying getting guys in the AHL and starting that clock seems to be a good idea. The AHL should be a springboard more than anything. I believe some time is helpful to anyone but players with a future absolutely can’t stay there long. There has to be a plan to move them along and it needs to be progressive and proactive in the second and third years.

I agree with your criticism of the team drafting outside of the first round. Very, very poor in the Sakic era. Though, I would say that if Annunen and Timmins continue on their path, it will begin to change the narrative.

Sakic’s built the team through excellent drafting in the 1st round, trades, and free agency. It will become more important for Sakic to get NHL players outside of the first round now that they will be drafting later in the first.

In terms of developing prospects I don’t know if I agree that there’s no plan. They seem to have made all the right determinations when it comes to Rantanen, Makar, Girard and hopefully Kaut. All different paths, but looking very good. Some guys needed time to develop, other guys not as much and it looks to be working out well.

Prospect development is not something where you can just set out a specific plan where you say ‘this player needs to spend two years in the NCAA’. You start with a plan, but it changes as you go, depending on how the player develops.
 

Barklez

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I probably shouldn’t go there but I have nothing better to do, so sorry.

Yeah the Avs should get credit for adding talent, which extra picks and a massive windfall of a trade helps. But it’s how they transition that talent marks if they have a functioning system much less a model one. If they can get Sampo to the NHL matters more than keeping him in the NCAA (which I agree with). Kennedy just wanted to talk about a couple NCAA players is pretty much the basis of that article, so I get it.

The fact that all their second year pros (Lewis, Dickinson, Barron, Anderson, Shvyrev) plus keeping Henry on the 4th line in addition to the requisite trip to the ECHL and they traded away their third year pros means they have not figured it out. The argument to that is all those dudes just weren’t good enough, which I’ve heard for at least 7 years now and there’s always hope for the next group including guys like Mutala. Yeah it’s tough for all non-premium prospects but the fact that the Avs have turned out just one own drafted second rounder (Galiardi and I guess one could argue Pickard sort of) in their history should be a big concern.

I get the conservative first year approach but that means they have to be equally as pro-active in the second and third years in regards to planning for an opportunity and path to becoming a NHLer. A player basically has that three years until their waiver exemption is up regardless of their age or pedigree to stick. Exceptions like Graves require a fresh start somewhere and he even cleared waivers once. Bowers and Timmins are not going to be on the roster this fall because they didn’t get a callup. I doubt they will even pencil Kaut it but he has a chance at least. Hopefully there’s a plan to get all three of them major callups so they can transition in second year pro (Kaut does have 2 waiver exempt years left), which is the most important year to transitioning to becoming a regular in the NHL (I have done a little research on this and what it takes for second rounders to make it which is where the Avs greatly lag behind the league average 30% success rate). They absolutely can’t wait around and watch AHL vets get the call next year and hope for a couple desperation games in the spring.

This is where patience can’t be confused with a lack of plan, which I still find as a major concern with the development system. Delaying getting guys in the AHL and starting that clock seems to be a good idea. The AHL should be a springboard more than anything. I believe some time is helpful to anyone but players with a future absolutely can’t stay there long. There has to be a plan to move them along and it needs to be progressive and proactive in the second and third years.

Last year’s Conn Smythe winner would like a word.

Edit: also Stastny. Am I misreading you here or...


Not that you’re wrong. Just it isn’t AS bad as you said.
 
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tigervixxxen

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Last year’s Conn Smythe winner would like a word.

Edit: also Stastny. Am I misreading you here or...


Not that you’re wrong. Just it isn’t AS bad as you said.
Those two never played in the AHL.

It seems when their hand is forced things can work out. I often wonder how different things would have been had they drafted Girard for example. Successes through the system is where guys tend to get stuck. I agree some is poor drafting but lack of opportunity is just as much of a function.

Anyway, not trying to say the Avs don’t deserve some credit but it grinds my gears when it’s called “the system” is a model of success. If anyone I think Bednar deserves some credit for utilizing young players and having them achieve a higher level of success than many anticipated. I do think Cronin is a good teacher too but the org has to do their part to foster opportunity because NHL experience is part of growth as well.
 
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S E P H

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The fact that all their second year pros (Lewis, Dickinson, Barron, Anderson, Shvyrev) plus keeping Henry on the 4th line in addition to the requisite trip to the ECHL and they traded away their third year pros means they have not figured it out. The argument to that is all those dudes just weren’t good enough, which I’ve heard for at least 7 years now and there’s always hope for the next group including guys like Mutala.
Or what if they're trying to insulate them instead of allowing them to be fed to the wolves which is happening to the Barracuda? They have an extremely young team and besides Blichfield - who is more in terms of a prospect finding all the right tools at the right time - get ripped apart. I am not arguing per se because I don't understand how Dickinson and Shvyrev continue to be given absurdly low ice time, but Kroenke has always been a seniority-basis organisation. Just look at how they treated players like Iginla and how he was spoon-fed minutes even though he was clearly, CLEARLY past it. Only player that I suggest they mistreated in this respect was Hejduk, but it seemed that was more Sacco being an idiot than anything else.

Also I know you love the prospects we draft, got nothing against it, but I also suggest that probability and possibility also needs to be taken into question. Not every Avs player will ever make the NHL, not if we recruited the best scouts of every team and paid handsomely for every Mitch Korn in the league. There will still be failed prospects in terms of draft selections, in terms of development, and in terms of talent/character mistakes. You might hate hearing "they weren't good enough", but sometimes that is honestly the answer in the end for some of them. I made a post concerning the Avs scout team, if you want to read it here; Joe Sakic - Record as Colorado Avalanche GM - Part III (Updates in First Post)
 
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Foppa2118

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Those two never played in the AHL.

It seems when their hand is forced things can work out. I often wonder how different things would have been had they drafted Girard for example. Successes through the system is where guys tend to get stuck. I agree some is poor drafting but lack of opportunity is just as much of a function.

Anyway, not trying to say the Avs don’t deserve some credit but it grinds my gears when it’s called “the system” is a model of success. If anyone I think Bednar deserves some credit for utilizing young players and having them achieve a higher level of success than many anticipated. I do think Cronin is a good teacher too but the org has to do their part to foster opportunity because NHL experience is part of growth as well.

I think Bednar and Pratt deserve a lot of credit for the final stages of development of some of the young guys. Guys like Girard and Makar really seemed to improve on a month by month basis, just on the details of the game. They'd make improvements on both their strengths and weaknesses as well.

Burakovsky had a bit of a slow adjustment but he seemed to get better and better the more he learned Bednar's system, and you can't just learn that on it's own. You have to be guided along the way, and you have to install confidence in someone like Bura that he can play to his strengths here.

Compher really seemed to improve as this season went on too, albeit it was a bit slow the first couple years.

The one guy who I don't think gets enough credit though is Shawn Allard, for how much he's helped the individual skill of the Av players, and by extension the team. I think he might be the single biggest addition to the organization in decades, because so many players have improved their skill level since he got here.
 

McMetal

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I think TV makes a good point about opportunity. The plan does always seem to be "call up a vet plug to be a warm body" whenever there's an opportunity. Now you could argue that a guy like Greer never earned it, but it still feels a bit like there's an organizational reluctance to call up unproven young players. And since they never get an opportunity to prove themselves, they stay unproven until we finally get tired of them and move on.

I wish there was a little bit more of a willingness to call up a guy like Meloche and just try him for 8 minutes in a game or two just to see what happens. Hard for a guy to lose you a game with that kind of ice time, and hey, maybe something good happens, you never know. Instead during that time frame we kept getting pure AHL guys like Alt and Lindholm called up instead for those minutes.

There does need to be a feeling down there in Loveland that there is a path for a young player to the NHL, rather than just "blow us away and we'll consider it, otherwise AHL vets with no future will get the nod by default". I feel like if Kaut wasn't a first round pick he would never in a million years have gotten a look last season.
 

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Those two never played in the AHL.

It seems when their hand is forced things can work out. I often wonder how different things would have been had they drafted Girard for example. Successes through the system is where guys tend to get stuck. I agree some is poor drafting but lack of opportunity is just as much of a function.

Anyway, not trying to say the Avs don’t deserve some credit but it grinds my gears when it’s called “the system” is a model of success. If anyone I think Bednar deserves some credit for utilizing young players and having them achieve a higher level of success than many anticipated. I do think Cronin is a good teacher too but the org has to do their part to foster opportunity because NHL experience is part of growth as well.
Steve Moore was looking good until Beretuzzi decided to end his career.

I don't kno how much you can hold the days before Pracey's firing and Roy leaving at this point, but I like our current bunch.
 

henchman21

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Fringe prospects fail all the time. I don't think that is anything to get upset about, and like it or not the Barron, Anderson, Dickinson, Shvy, etc are all fringe prospects (as much as I love Shvy, he's fringe). To me, the big failures are Bigras and Meloche... and I think there are solid reasons.The others simply aren't good enough... Barron and Anderson shouldn't have gotten contracts. Dickinson was a shot on a kid that had an excellent freshman year in college, but has shown why he was passed over. Similar with Lewis... he works hard, but he's undersized and can't skate at a high pace.

If we look that the Avs roster when the shutdown happened, Compher, Graves, Frank, Z and Rants all spent a good amount of time with an Avs affiliate in the past few years. The AHL team isn't perfect and I don't think all development goes as planned... but there are 5 shining examples of success. LOC and Kaut both showed well in the NHL. Bowers and Timmins took strides forward in their development. It is easy to point out how bad they have done, but at least acknowledge their successes.

There does need to be a feeling down there in Loveland that there is a path for a young player to the NHL, rather than just "blow us away and we'll consider it, otherwise AHL vets with no future will get the nod by default". I feel like if Kaut wasn't a first round pick he would never in a million years have gotten a look last season.

If that was the case, how do you explain Graves? Or how LOC is trending?

When we get to Greer, he had plenty of chances to stick around... each time he ended up taking bad penalties. No NHL coach will put preference to a kid that takes that many penalties. It simply won't happen. If he had cut those penalties in half or less, he might have stuck around.
 

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The Avs have lots of recent success stories from guys who spent time in the minors.


A lot of them weren't drafted by the organization which IMO is where the problem lies. Simply put our drafting has not been good enough.


Now... are there signs of things changing on that front? Sure. Kaut looked decent in his NHL stint(Though I think folks are overreacting to just how good he really was) earlier which is a positive sign. Timmins, concussion aside, has been pretty much fantastic since he was drafted and is well on track to be a future NHLer. Newhook just had maybe the best D+1 year relative to expectations of any 2019 draft pick. And other guys are showing well as well. Mutala, Annunen, Kovalenko, Zhuravlyov... all had good developmental seasons this year.



But, the same was said a few years ago as well. Bigras, Greer, Beaudin, Meloche, Martin... all these guys had some real positive outlooks in there D+1 or D+2 years as well but never panned out.


To me drafting is easily the problem and until we actually see some results I wouldnt be getting my hopes up. Newhook and Timmins are the only 2 drafged prospects in our system I have any real expectations of being full time NHLers right now.
 
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Northern Avs Fan

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I don’t disagree that the Avs have sucked for a while now at drafting outside of the 1st round, but we also can’t discount the players they hit on in the 1st. Because ultimately, that’s where you usually get the franchise players.

MacKinnon/Rantanen/Makar. None of those guys were slam dunk picks. Even Newhook, the Avs didn’t need to take him.

They could very easily have picked

Jones/Crouse/Petterson

Or god forbid, something like

Jones/Crouse/Glass

I’m not saying they don’t deserve some criticism for their drafting, but they have hit some major home runs. And with Byram, Newhook, Timmins, Kaut, and Annunen all coming along nicely there could be many drafted players contributing in the future.

Yes, the Avs absolutely need to get better at finding NHLers outside of the 1st round, but there are much worse drafting teams out there, and this regime appears to be getting better at identifying talent in the draft.
 
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S E P H

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Fringe prospects fail all the time. I don't think that is anything to get upset about, and like it or not the Barron, Anderson, Dickinson, Shvy, etc are all fringe prospects (as much as I love Shvy, he's fringe). To me, the big failures are Bigras and Meloche... and I think there are solid reasons.The others simply aren't good enough... Barron and Anderson shouldn't have gotten contracts. Dickinson was a shot on a kid that had an excellent freshman year in college, but has shown why he was passed over. Similar with Lewis... he works hard, but he's undersized and can't skate at a high pace.

If we look that the Avs roster when the shutdown happened, Compher, Graves, Frank, Z and Rants all spent a good amount of time with an Avs affiliate in the past few years. The AHL team isn't perfect and I don't think all development goes as planned... but there are 5 shining examples of success. LOC and Kaut both showed well in the NHL. Bowers and Timmins took strides forward in their development. It is easy to point out how bad they have done, but at least acknowledge their successes.
Pretty much this, personally I would love every prospect we draft to get at least one NHL game, but I don't think anybody should be mad when a 7th rounder in Travis Barron, a FA signing in Lewis, and a terrible selection in Anderson won't ever get an NHL game. They had a mountain to climb even before they were targeted by the Avs scout team. As you said, fringe players are so hard to predict because majority of the hockey world is filled with bottom 6ers and I am not really talking about Calverts', but more of the Josts' and Kamenevs'.

However, there is also a good point in that you also cannot stagnate your prospects either even though they might be fringe. I get that you want to insulate prospects and not to be fed to the wolves. There is also no doubt in my mind that players like Condra and Megna are better and more productive than Shvy, but keeping your prospect stuck in the bottom 6 in the freakin' AHL is also nonsense. You have to play favourites and sure playoff hockey is a great learning experience - especially in the AHL - where players like Condra/Megna help, you also need to find that balance. Shvyryov should be on the third line after playing on the fourth in the AHL last season, yet he's kept in the same position and worthless players like Joly, Wagner, Campbell, and Molino get to play over him because they for some reason. I am less concerned about others like Henry because they're rookies and like freshmen in the NCAA a certain amount expectations need to be reduced.

And other guys are showing well as well. Mutala, Annunen, Kovalenko, Zhuravlyov... all had good developmental seasons this year.
Tyler Weiss has had one of the most post-draft success compared to any one of our prospects.
 

henchman21

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Pretty much this, personally I would love every prospect we draft to get at least one NHL game, but I don't think anybody should be mad when a 7th rounder in Travis Barron, a FA signing in Lewis, and a terrible selection in Anderson won't ever get an NHL game. They had a mountain to climb even before they were targeted by the Avs scout team. As you said, fringe players are so hard to predict because majority of the hockey world is filled with bottom 6ers and I am not really talking about Calverts', but more of the Josts' and Kamenevs'.

However, there is also a good point in that you also cannot stagnate your prospects either even though they might be fringe. I get that you want to insulate prospects and not to be fed to the wolves. There is also no doubt in my mind that players like Condra and Megna are better and more productive than Shvy, but keeping your prospect stuck in the bottom 6 in the freakin' AHL is also nonsense. You have to play favourites and sure playoff hockey is a great learning experience - especially in the AHL - where players like Condra/Megna help, you also need to find that balance. Shvyryov should be on the third line after playing on the fourth in the AHL last season, yet he's kept in the same position and worthless players like Joly, Wagner, Campbell, and Molino get to play over him because they for some reason. I am less concerned about others like Henry because they're rookies and like freshmen in the NCAA a certain amount expectations need to be reduced.


Tyler Weiss has had one of the most post-draft success compared to any one of our prospects.

Agree that you have to play favorites. They should be players that could have a future climbing up the ranks. If they don't show that future, IMO, you're better off not flooding the system with them. A great development system will pump out 2-3 NHL players a year. Figure it takes 2-3 years to churn once they turn pro, focusing on your top ~7-8 isn't a bad idea to me. You can't have an AHL team with 17 players you are actually trying to develop at the same time. There isn't enough bandwidth in a system to dedicate to that. Which is why I personally think variety in development leagues is important for a team.

Agree Weiss took a large step forward this year. The points weren't always there, but his impact improved significantly. He was really becoming the driver at UNO and figuring out his game. If he hadn't been so snake bitten the last ~7-8 games, he probably would doubled his goals this year. The weekend against Miami in Feb, he probably should have came away with 3 alone.
 

Foppa2118

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It's unfortunate Byram didn't get another playoff run. Would have been huge for his development and confidence level going into next season after his slow start offensively.

Wonder if that may affect his chances of making the Avs next season?
 

Barklez

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It's unfortunate Byram didn't get another playoff run. Would have been huge for his development and confidence level going into next season after his slow start offensively.

Wonder if that may affect his chances of making the Avs next season?

Unless he looks horrible in camp or the stoppage cuts into next season significantly I don’t see any way he’s sent back to junior again.

Obviously the outbreak is causing devastating real-world issues but the timing of this stoppage also sucks for the Avs. If next year gets chewed into at all that’s 2 disrupted seasons where we were just entering contender status and looking to keep the ball rolling.
 

henchman21

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FWIW I’m more optimistic about our 2nd-7 th rounders now than I have been in a while.

I honestly feel mostly the same... maybe slightly better in the peaks. There are some bright spots, and some real stinkers still. I see Saigeon, Stienburg, Miner, etc. and see some similar garbage picks. Then I see shots at players like Kovalenko and Ranta where they varied outside normal areas and took some shots on players. Right now it is hard for me to say how this will pan out, but the 2018 draft has as soild of base as any Avs draft in a long time.
 

Foppa2118

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Unless he looks horrible in camp or the stoppage cuts into next season significantly I don’t see any way he’s sent back to junior again.

Obviously the outbreak is causing devastating real-world issues but the timing of this stoppage also sucks for the Avs. If next year gets chewed into at all that’s 2 disrupted seasons where we were just entering contender status and looking to keep the ball rolling.

The main signs will be his defensive ability against NHLers, and his confidence level to play his possession game offensively and make plays.

Neither were high enough last year and it won't quite be clear yet until we see it in the pre-season.

One interesting thing to look out for is if Canada and the US get impacted differently and have different sets of data going into next season. Especially if their public guidelines for large gatherings are different in October.

Could potentially impact what they do with Byram since the NHL and WHL could be in different situations.
 

PAZ

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The past 2-3 years the Avs have revamped the whole organization, and since then I think they've done a pretty decent job. I don't really take stock of the older fringe prospects like Meloche, Bigras, Nantel, etc. because even if they developed a bit more in the AHL and became decent AHLers, i'd be surprised if that translated into the NHL and sustained in the AHL. Sure it might boost up their value (ie. Rosen), but this whole board was bitching and bemoaning about trading awhile Kyle Wood and was obsessed with his 1st year in the AHL. Years later he's been tossed around like candy in trade deals, yet if he wasn't traded he'd just be another name on the list that wasn't 'developed' properly.

I also think there's a fine line between going with your guys and completely tanking the team, if a player gets spoonfed top line undeserved minutes, the locker room takes notice and it can quickly become toxic. I'm pretty happy with how Bowers has developed and while Kaut has had a pretty poor showing in the AHL, it clearly hasn't hindered him much considering his stint up here. I will say that the upcoming crop of prospects that go through the AHL will be a lot more telling, as we finally have a pretty deep prospect pool.
 
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