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Pre-Game Talk: 2019-20 Playoff Watch Thread

y2kcanucks

y2kcanucks

Le Sex God
Aug 3, 2006
71,229
10,319
Surrey, BC
Both Calgary and Arizona win. They’re now both 1 point back of the Canucks.

Still early but Vegas is leading Washington. A win would put them 1 up on the Canucks.

Nashville plays Carolina tomorrow and Winnipeg hosts the Kings. A win for each would put them both 2 back of the Canucks.
 
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StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
25,967
9,610
y2kcanucks said:
Both Calgary and Arizona win. They’re now both 1 point back of the Canucks.

Still early but Vegas is leading Washington. A win would put them 1 up on the Canucks.

Nashville plays Carolina tomorrow and Winnipeg hosts the Kings. A win for each would put them both 2 back of the Canucks.
Click to expand...
Going to be tight.
For the past 4 seasons, the Canucks record in February after the ASG has been bad. Up to game 70 in early/mid March, it's bad until they even out in the final 12 games of the season.

15-16 - they went 7-12-1 from Feb 1 to game 70
16-17 - they went 5-12-3 from Feb 1 to game 70
17-18 - they went 5-12-3 from Feb 1 to game 70
18-19 - they went 6-10-3 from Feb 1 to game 70
19-20 - currently at 3-4-1 since Feb 1. 11 more games to hit game 70.

This has been the stretch of the season that this team has stunk. Have to be able to ramp up the play.

Their March schedule is super packed. With back to backs, 3 games in 4 nights and 4 in 6 days.
 
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PG Canuck

PG Canuck

Registered User
Mar 29, 2010
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y2kcanucks said:
Both Calgary and Arizona win. They’re now both 1 point back of the Canucks.

Still early but Vegas is leading Washington. A win would put them 1 up on the Canucks.

Nashville plays Carolina tomorrow and Winnipeg hosts the Kings. A win for each would put them both 2 back of the Canucks.
Click to expand...

Nashville plays Carolina tomorrow and Winnipeg hosts the Kings. A loss for each would put them both 4 back of the Canucks.
 

Hammer79

Registered User
Jan 9, 2009
7,274
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Kelowna
On the bright side, we are 5 points back of the conference leading Blues and the Stars with equal games played, while being 4 back of the Avs with a 1 game deficit. The Blues and Stars are only 9 points out of 9th, and the Preds have a game in hand.
 

Hammer79

Registered User
Jan 9, 2009
7,274
1,099
Kelowna
Interestingly, 2 out of 3 of the prediction sites have moved the 'clinch line' (points by 8th place team) to 91. The clinch line was as low as 89 last week. Just shows how bad the out of town scoreboard was this week.

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

Avs 102.9
Blues 101.4
Stars 100.9

Oilers 96.2
Canucks 95.0
Golden Knights 94.1

Predators 91.8
Flames 91.0
..........................
Coyotes 90.8
Jets 88.9
Wild 87.4
Blackhawks 85.7

http://hockey.338canada.com/

Avs 102.6
Stars 99.9
Blues 99.6

Oilers 95.3
Canucks 94.8
Golden Knights 93.8

Predators 91.0
Coyotes 90.1
...............................
Flames 89.8
Jets 88.5
Wild 85.6
Blackhawks 84.3

Western Conference Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats
(points total with most simulations agreeing)

Avs 105
Blues 102
Stars 102

Oilers 97
Canucks 96
Golden Knights 94

Predators 92
Coyotes 91
........................................
Flames 90
Jets 88
Wild 87
Blackhawks 85
 
Samzilla

Samzilla

Prust & Dorsett are
Apr 2, 2011
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If memory serves, starting March 20th, we play 6 divisional games in a row. That's probably gonna be our make or break time.
 
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Fire Benning

Fire Benning

diaper filled piss baby
Oct 2, 2016
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Hell
No team in the West really standing out for me, could change by April I suppose.

Blues with 3 wins in 13 games.
 

Hammer79

Registered User
Jan 9, 2009
7,274
1,099
Kelowna
cookiefest said:
No team in the West really standing out for me, could change by April I suppose.

Blues with 3 wins in 13 games.
Click to expand...

It's like the reverse of last year. They are losing to teams that they should be beating. They might be in tough against the Stars in the first round.

The west is wide open, I would put the Avalanche as the favorites to come out of the west but I don't think they are a strong favorite.
 
Samzilla

Samzilla

Prust & Dorsett are
Apr 2, 2011
15,297
2,151
We're 2-4-2 in our last 8. Playoff odds have dropped below 90% on sportsclubstats after being around 97% the other week.
 
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Hammer79

Registered User
Jan 9, 2009
7,274
1,099
Kelowna
Samzilla said:
We're 2-4-2 in our last 8. Playoff odds have dropped below 90% on sportsclubstats after being around 97% the other week.
Click to expand...

The Sportsclubstats formula relies on goal differential (http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Win_Probabilities.pdf) to figure out the 'relative strength' of a team, then runs a simulation (I'm assuming something similar to a Monte Carlo simulation) based on the rest of the team's scheduled matchups and their opponents relative strength.

However, there is a variable that the website owner can play with to make goal differential more or less important. I think they tend to err on the side of making the swings in playoff chances feel more exciting.

We swung down this week because we lost games that the simulations said we should have won more times than lost. We also had a bad goal differential on the week, which brought down our relative strength.
 
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