Prospect Info: 2019-20 Oilers Prospect Thread

[Faelko]

I like konovalov as a goalie prospect but I fear him being small is what holds him back from nhl success

He’s what, 5’11”? I don’t consider that small. Compared to other starters, sure.

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That’s the 3” he’s shorter than the average goalie.

 

[Oilhawks]

Not to split hairs but isn't he 6'?

 

[CycloneSweep]

How tf is a .950 only 5th in the league? lol. I guess the KHL really is a defensive league. Take all goalie numbers there with a grain of salt.

I mean it's only 4 games in. A goalie with a single shutout and a couple good games would have stellar numbers at the start.

 

[Panda Bear]

Yeah, but what's his inseam and sleeve length?

 

[Cloned]

I mean it's only 4 games in. A goalie with a single shutout and a couple good games would have stellar numbers at the start.

Yeah but this means that there are 4 goalies who have done that at a better rate than .950, which is pretty telling of how defensive the league is.

 

[McDNicks17]

Yeah but this means that there are 4 goalies who have done that at a better rate than .950, which is pretty telling of how defensive the league is.

Sample size is key here since there's a lot less parity in the KHL.

Pretty much everyone at the top has multiple games against the really bad teams that are averaging less than two goals per game.

 

[Cloned]

Sample size is key here since there's a lot less parity in the KHL.

Pretty much everyone at the top has multiple games against the really bad teams that are averaging less than two goals per game.

Fair, but even the really bad teams in the NHL don’t average less than 2 goals per game (although Detroit was really close this year). The KHL is definitely more defensive.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Fair, but even the really bad teams in the NHL don’t average less than 2 goals per game (although Detroit was really close this year). The KHL is definitely more defensive.

I think it might be worth trying to separate his starts at the end of the year to a teams record to see how his stats are vs high/medium/low quality and such.

 

[McDNicks17]

Fair, but even the really bad teams in the NHL don’t average less than 2 goals per game (although Detroit was really close this year). The KHL is definitely more defensive.

Like I said, the KHL has waaaay less parity.

There's already a team with a -18 goal differential six games in haha.

 

[Cloned]

I think it might be worth trying to separate his starts at the end of the year to a teams record to see how his stats are vs high/medium/low quality and such.

Yep. Don’t get me wrong, I want the player to succeed, I just think you have to subtract X number of points off any goalie’s KHL save percentage to get a reasonable read of what his NHL performance might be like.

 

[Cloned]

Like I said, the KHL has waaaay less parity.

There's already a team that has a -18 goal differential six games in haha.

I understand, but there’s a difference between being -18 and having scored 15 goals for vs being -18 and having scored 10 goals for.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Yep. Don’t get me wrong, I want the player to succeed, I just think you have to subtract X number of points off any goalie’s KHL save percentage to get a reasonable read of what his NHL performance might be like.

I agree. The average shot distance is a decent amount farther than the NHL. Showing that bigger ice doesn’t increase offence, but actually muffles it.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Yeah but this means that there are 4 goalies who have done that at a better rate than .950, which is pretty telling of how defensive the league is.

There were 15 goalies last year above 0.930.

 

[Cloned]

There were 15 goalies last year above 0.930.

Yeah, that’s a lot lol.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Yeah, that’s a lot lol.

And that's why when people said that Konovalov had like a 916 or something after MacTavish left like it was great but that would of been good enough for like...28th for goalies with 30+ starts. If you aren't at like 925 in the KHL or higher that's not good. Like Koskinen was a 930 goalie in the KHL.

 

[Cloned]

And that's why when people said that Konovalov had like a 916 or something after MacTavish left like it was great but that would of been good enough for like...28th for goalies with 30+ starts. If you aren't at like 925 in the KHL or higher that's not good. Like Koskinen was a 930 goalie in the KHL.

To be fair there is a period of healing and recovery after a Chia/MacT regime.

 

[CycloneSweep]

To be fair there is a period of healing and recovery after a Chia/MacT regime.

Ain't that the truth. Looks like his recovery is done.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Ain't that the truth. Looks like his recovery is done.

If I remember right, his numbers are pretty eye popping post MacT shitcanning

 

[CycloneSweep]

If I remember right, his numbers are pretty eye popping post MacT shitcanning

Someone said his numbers were still sub 920 after Mac T left. If you remove the MacT games his save percentage improves but he was only there for a few games. He was better but wasn't his normal self. He looks so far like that guy again though. If it's not 920 or higher in the KHL it's not eye popping

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Someone said his numbers were still sub 920 after Mac T left. If you remove the MacT games his save percentage improves but he was only there for a few games. He was better but wasn't his normal self. He looks so far like that guy again though. If it's not 920 or higher in the KHL it's not eye popping

He’s also a young goalie, progression isn’t linear.

I’ll look into his stats pre and post Mac T when I’m at my computer.

I believe he was a 917 after he left though.

 

[CycloneSweep]

He’s also a young goalie, progression isn’t linear.

I’ll look into his stats pre and post Mac T when I’m at my computer.

I believe he was a 917 after he left though.

If that number is accurate that would move him from 38th in the league to 34th. For guys with 10+ starts.
The KHL website sorts by 25+ starts so a 917 over a full year would move him from 30 to 28th.

Not saying he was terrible but for what he has done it was a rough year, or a down year overall. In goalies that started 25+ games last year, 23 had above a 920, 14 above a 930. He has previously been in that 930+ range so that's a pretty decent drop.

And like you said it's not linear so that's why it's good he is trending back up this year

 

[Tobias Kahun]

If that number is accurate that would move him from 38th in the league to 34th. For guys with 10+ starts.
The KHL website sorts by 25+ starts so a 917 over a full year would move him from 30 to 28th.

Not saying he was terrible but for what he has done it was a rough year, or a down year overall. In goalies that started 25+ games last year, 23 had above a 920, 14 above a 930. He has previously been in that 930+ range so that's a pretty decent drop.

And like you said it's not linear so that's why it's good he is trending back up this year

His stats breakdown like this.

With MacT as coach
12 GA 90 shots against - 0.867

After MacT fired.
79 GA 959 shots against - 0.9176

His monthly breakdown is

September
14ga 135 shots against - 0.896

October
21ga 255 shots against - 0.918

November
16ga 201 shots against - 0.920

December
21 goals 199 shots against - 0.894

January
7ga 86 shots against - 0.919

February
12 ga 173 shots against - 0.930

 

[CycloneSweep]

His stats breakdown like this.

With MacT as coach
12 GA 90 shots against - 0.867

After MacT fired.
79 GA 959 shots against - 0.9176

His monthly breakdown is

September
14ga 135 shots against - 0.896

October
21ga 255 shots against - 0.918

November
16ga 201 shots against - 0.920

December
21 goals 199 shots against - 0.894

January
7ga 86 shots against - 0.919

February
12 ga 173 shots against - 0.930

So had some good months, has some fine months and some really bad months.

 

[aspin3]

Looks like Bakersfield signed Graham McPhee an oiler draft pick and son of George.

 

[Oilers in NS]

Good as place as any to post some random thoughts about our defense now and moving forward.

Klefbom: has had at least one good year offensively where he showed off his Klefbomb of a shot. Has improved immensely defensively. Still battles injury and consistency as do all/most defenseman. Is a big part of our defense and the team struggles when he is injured. A top 3 defenseman on most teams. On a sweat heart deal. If not for his injury issues I rate this player all but untradable because of his value to this team. Just turned 27 and is just entering his prime for defense. Signed two more years. We move him we have to bring back someone as good or better. Extremely unlikely anyone passes him on the depth chart prior to his contract expiring.

Nurse: Had an off year where he did not develop much offensively or defensively. Still a top 3 defenseman imo albiet his decision making in all 3 zones did not indicate a player entering his prime. His 2 year contract walks him to UFA status which is stupid beyond belief but not coincidentally expires the same time as Klefbom's. I believe both Klefbom and Nurse are too value able to move prior to the end of the 2021/22 season. Still young still growing even at the end of this contract I would be leary of moving him as experience for him "should" count a lot towards effectiveness.

Larsson: Very similar to Klefbom in age, cap hit, and effectiveness except watered down. More injury prone if possible. Movable only if Bouchard has a monster year at both ends of the ice.

Russell: Love the player, a solid 4/5 defender, but completely expendable due to cap restraints and a deep group of prospects.

Benning: Grossly under rated by many. A solid #5 RD cost controlled RFA. Young as well entering his prime. Also only expendable if Bouchard has a monster season. Moving him or Larsson is a risk that dances around RFA status, cap hit, and development.

Bear: Monster year but skating and size still a bit of an issue. Need more sample size before cementing himself as a bonified top 3 Rd but very likely a top 4 fixture for the foreseeable future.

Jones: Very impressive this year but in a very limited role. If all goes well unlikely to be protected in next year's expansion draft. Even not being as high as most on this player short of him struggling the most likely player drafted by Seattle. Him or Benning. Nothing more than #7 atm but likely to be a acceptable 4/5 when Nurse/Klefbom contracts expire.

Bouchard: Our whole defense hinges around the progress/development of this player. Unless this player is deemed top 4 ready to start the next season the only truely expendable defenseman we have is Russell. Having said that he has been groomed perfectly and has a pedigree far beyond anything the Oilers have had in a generation. By projections "should" be far better than anyone in the system albiet I would expect that to be 3 to 5 years away at best. Trading this asset for anything is foolish due to his high end talent and RFA status.

Laggesson: Another depth player that could surprise but even as is can help softer losing a warrior like Russell. Or Larsson. Or Benning.

Samorukov: Not in the Oilers plans until later next year at best but like Laggesson another piece that makes the left side log jamb all but improbable for all those players to still be in Edmonton past the 2021/22 season. I project Samorukov optimistically to eventually be a 4/5. Still more unlikely than likely to even be an nhler.

Broberg: Higher upside than Samorukov but further behind in his development. I think there is more wishful thinking than serious projection to place this prospect as anything higher than a fringe top 3 defenseman in a long long time.

The reason I posted this is to really point out how hard it would be to move anyone out of this system until the end of the 2021/22 season post expansion draft. Projecting guys like Jones, Samorukov, or Broberg to take the place of Nurse or Klefbom short term doesn't work.

I like what u have done here. Can I add if u dont mind?

Bear - does everyone on here remember Brian Rafalski when he played in New Jersey? Bear kinda reminds me off him. Almost same size as well. Rafalski had a great career.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?
pid=4438

Samourkov - I seen him play Jr. I realize it is a big jump but I think if he is developed properly, he could be a good #5-#6 Dman.

Broberg - Kid was 6'2" 205 at 17 and skate like the wind. It should be noted he played forward as well before. I think we have a dandy here. I know people were screaming for a forward but I think Ken knows Sweden.

Bouchard - gonna be a dandy on the PP. Hopefully he can get that extra step that is needed.

Jones - I think he will be a dandy. Its in his DNA, I seriously think his brother is top 3 in the league. Columbus would be nowhere without him