Salary Cap: 2019-20 - Leafs Salary Cap issues and adjustments?

[nuck]

It says there is the option to pay signing bonus, he retires, and then trade the cap space.

It does agree with you that it's unlikely he'll want to do that.

Hers what it says at the end of that section "He could nonetheless say he’s had enough and call it a day. And you can hope he does! But I think saying it’s likely is letting the wish be father to the thought."

As others have pointed out, why structure the bonus that way if not for a potential move out? Of course his first two years were also bonus heavy so it could simply be the club piling on the over payment until he couldn't say no. It would be nice if there was a contender they could send him to for year 3 but who has that cap space to burn? Best option is to win the Cup for him this year I consider his deal to be sunk money so I am not expecting they will be able to move him. They will just bridge some players to get over the hump and deal with the cap crunch like everyone else. It isn't like they will lose core players, just maybe some depth that might take them over the top next season. Is Zaitsev movable? Absolutely, with the right add so problem solved, just not comfortable value wise, but if I lose a late 1st and all my core is resigned, that is not an issue at all. Again, how essential is the outside addition of a RD necessary for the club to be able to dominate?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I just looked through some threads from the summer about cap problems and new contracts.

These were projections from even the most “generous” posters.

Nylander: 6.5x7 (Pretty much nobody went higher than this)
Matthews: 11x8 (highest one I saw)
Marner: 6x6 or 7x8 (highest I saw)

So other than what DUBAS himself has done to the market, why have expectations changed so much? The only one I understand is Marner, who broke out more than most expected this season. But I was told in the Nylander vs Pastrnaks threads that one break out season is an outlier and you get paid for what your elc years average out as. That’s not now applying to marner? Only Pastrnak?

And Matthews broke out less than most expected from last season. His numbers are only slightly better than last years. So why did he get such a worse contract than everyone expected?

I hear people saying “the market has changed”, but is there any evidence of that other than what Dubas himself has handed out?

Why did the dollar value of all of these contracts greatly exceed pretty much everyone’s expectations?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

After talking to one of Leafs cap guys on Saturday at Marlies game I am feeling a lot better about our CAP situation next year. Although he could not tell me all the moves they are planning. He sounded very optimistic. I asked about Marleau and he said everything would be decided based on playoffs. I got the distinct impression that if he plays like last years playoffs they would keep him around for 1 more run. If not then he likely gone.

Also sounds like 2-4 Marlies on bubble for next years Leafs. I asked if it was Bracco, Marchment, Lilly and Sandin on the bubble. He said they needed at least a couple for CAP.

Asked about Kappy and Johnsson staying or going? and got the well it depends on each negotiation line. when I pressed it was very clear things were not going well on either front right now. response well it is a tough business to round out a CAP roster.

Asked about defense and adding some depth and he agreed we needed to add depth but it was tough given CAP reality and Marner's negotiation after season. So it sounds to me like we are not going to do much on that front.

Anyways it was an overall optimistic feeling for improving team next season .

 

[hockeywiz542]

5 ways for the Toronto Maple Leafs to create some cap space - Sportsnet.ca

Even if the 2019-20 salary cap raises to its projected $83 million and even if Dubas let all his unrestricted free agents walk, he’d still only have about $8.8 million left over to keep key RFAs Mitchell Marner, Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson, plus fill the minutes-munching gaps in his defence corps left by UFAs Jake Gardiner and Ron Hainsey.

1. Let the free agents walk

2. Trade a roster player (or two)

3. Bridge, trade, or let an opponent offer-sheet the RFAs

4. Find an island for Nathan Horton’s contract

5. Embrace cheap labour

 

[hockeywiz542]

Off the Post podcast: Leafs’ Stanley Cup window could be closing | Edmonton Journal

Updated: May 2, 2019

Mike Traikos joins Paul Chapman to discuss the Leafs exit from the playoffs and what the team is missing. While Mike thinks the team needs to get bigger and nastier, salary cap issues leaves few options for a fix.

 

[Superstar]

I just looked through some threads from the summer about cap problems and new contracts.

These were projections from even the most “generous” posters.

Nylander: 6.5x7 (Pretty much nobody went higher than this)
Matthews: 11x8 (highest one I saw)
Marner: 6x6 or 7x8 (highest I saw)

So other than what DUBAS himself has done to the market, why have expectations changed so much? The only one I understand is Marner, who broke out more than most expected this season. But I was told in the Nylander vs Pastrnaks threads that one break out season is an outlier and you get paid for what your elc years average out as. That’s not now applying to marner? Only Pastrnak?

And Matthews broke out less than most expected from last season. His numbers are only slightly better than last years. So why did he get such a worse contract than everyone expected?

I hear people saying “the market has changed”, but is there any evidence of that other than what Dubas himself has handed out?

Why did the dollar value of all of these contracts greatly exceed pretty much everyone’s expectations?

We can and we will!

 

[Morbo]

oh gee Traikos thinks something negative about the Leafs. I for one am shocked.

 

[The Podium]

Posted this in another thread:

What about a half season LTIR? Does LTIR work towards daily cap hit total or no?

For example, if Marleau is placed on LTIR for a "fake injury" can his cap hit not be counted until the Leafs have accrued enough daily cap space to take him off LTIR? With ~193 days in the season if Marleau is kept on LTIR for ~97 days his cap hit would effectively be 3.125 million for the remaining 95 days of the season or roughly 40 games. Or, in other words, the Leafs would accrue roughly 3.125 million.

The same can be said about Hyman as well. If placed on LTIR for roughly 60 days (based on 6 month estimate) the Leafs would accrue roughly 700k in salary cap in that time. Or am I understanding the cap wrong?

 

[Nithoniniel]

The team with the youngest core of all contender teams have their window to win close in their third competitive season? When almost all important players are under 25?

That's among the dumbest things I've heard.

 

[4thline]

The team with the youngest core of all contender teams have their window to win close in their third competitive season? When almost all important players are under 25?

That's among the dumbest things I've heard.

Didn't you know that any regression or failure to improve the team for next season is permanent?

 

[4thline]

Long game boys. Deep breath.

Keep the pieces that need to be kept, ride out the year, let our young guys develop and face some more adversity while having to carry the mail.

A middling season isn't the end of the world. Adding a Wilson or a Vrana wouldn't be the worst thing

 

[deletethis]

Fact: The Leafs just had 3 consecutive opportunities to go deep in the playoffs while their youth were still on ELCs fortified with experienced (expensive) vets and couldn't make it happen. If you think things get easier from this point on, you're in denial. Matthews and co. are now the team's expensive leadership fortified by cheap support that doesn't consist of young superstar talent.

 

[deletethis]

Bridges for Kapanen and/or Johnsson?

Kapanen , 20g 24a
Johnsson, 20g, 23a

2018 signings of RFAs:

More points
Less points

Tobias Rieder: $2.0M (1 year), 12g 13a
Jimmy Vesey: $2.275M (2 years), 17g 11a
Mattius Janmark: $2.3M (1 year), 19g 15a
Devin Shore: $2.3M (2 years), 11g, 21a
Oliver Bjorkstrand $2.5M (3 years), 11g, 29a
Ondrej Kase $2.6 M (3 years), 20g 18a
Miles Wood $2.75M (3 years), 19g 13a
Chris Tierney $2.937M (2 years), 17g 23a
Andreas Athanasiou $3.0M (2 years), 16g 17a
Ryan Strome $3.1M (2 years), 13g 21a
Max Domi $3.15M (2 years), 9g 36a
Anthony Mantha $3.3M (2 years), 24g 24a
Vlad Namestnikov $4.0M (2 years), 22g 26a
Brock Nelson: $4.25M (1 year), 19g 16a

 

[4thline]

Fact: The Leafs just had 3 consecutive opportunities to go deep in the playoffs while their youth were still on ELCs fortified with experienced (expensive) vets and couldn't make it happen. If you think things get easier from this point on, you're in denial. Matthews and co. are now the team's expensive leadership fortified by cheap support that doesn't consist of young superstar talent.

Fact: back in 2015-2016 I was one of the only posters on this board advocating that this 3 year window even existed and that we wouldn't have a long drawn out rebuild. That being said, there's two windows to win. The 2nd one exists as long as we have the bones in place (1C, 1D,1G + 1X), there will be ups, there will be downs, but this is a long road.

 

[deletethis]

Fact: back in 2015-2016 I was one of the only posters on this board advocating that this 3 year window even existed and that we wouldn't have a long drawn out rebuild. That being said, there's two windows to win. The 2nd one exists as long as we have the bones in place (1C, 1D,1G + 1X), there will be ups, there will be downs, but this is a long road.

It's always a bit of a playoff long shot in any event but it essentially happened in Pittsburgh. None of the Leafs' great young players are equivalent to a 21 year old Sidney Crosby or even a 22 year old Gino Malkin. There was some hope that our guys might have better vet support to make something special happen.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Fact: back in 2015-2016 I was one of the only posters on this board advocating that this 3 year window even existed and that we wouldn't have a long drawn out rebuild. That being said, there's two windows to win. The 2nd one exists as long as we have the bones in place (1C, 1D,1G + 1X), there will be ups, there will be downs, but this is a long road.

2Cs, 1D 1G and 6 total A list players who eat sleep and dream hockey to win and you get a Cup. That was Scotty's thing. At this point we have Tavares, Matty and Marner. We are close with Rielly, Freddy and one more still needed.

 

[GoonieFace]

Bridges for Kapanen and/or Johnsson?

Kapanen , 20g 24a
Johnsson, 20g, 23a

2018 signings of RFAs:

More points
Less points

Tobias Rieder: $2.0M (1 year), 12g 13a
Jimmy Vesey: $2.275M (2 years), 17g 11a
Mattius Janmark: $2.3M (1 year), 19g 15a
Devin Shore: $2.3M (2 years), 11g, 21a
Oliver Bjorkstrand $2.5M (3 years), 11g, 29a
Ondrej Kase $2.6 M (3 years), 20g 18a
Miles Wood $2.75M (3 years), 19g 13a
Chris Tierney $2.937M (2 years), 17g 23a
Andreas Athanasiou $3.0M (2 years), 16g 17a
Ryan Strome $3.1M (2 years), 13g 21a
Max Domi $3.15M (2 years), 9g 36a
Anthony Mantha $3.3M (2 years), 24g 24a
Vlad Namestnikov $4.0M (2 years), 22g 26a
Brock Nelson: $4.25M (1 year), 19g 16a

So in Dubas land - both should get 6 year/$36 mil.

 

[deletethis]

So in Dubas land - both should get 6 year/$36 mil.

Let's hope not. It's pretty clear that after Kapanen's late season slump both Kapanen and Johnsson can legitimately demand a bridge deal in the vicinity of $3.3M AAV over 2 years.

 

[BlueForever75]

I believe everything will sort itself out. The Leafs are different then others where there cap troubles are due to young players and not older players. Look at Chicago, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, LA, SJ, STL, Washington etc. None of those teams have a core group of 25 years or younger that they have locked up that will be good in seasons to come. They all have older players signed up, and older players that are part of their current core that will free agents that are causing a cap crunch with no way of getting better. At least we have players that have yet to hit their prime and are only projected to get better. This in itself keeps us in contention for the long haul. Determining the core of the team will be the task for Dubas and company. Once they have established it, surrounding them with other components shouldn't be any different then what teams like Pittsburgh, LA and Chicago did in their cup winning seasons. We will not have studs at every position. Its impossible. But some patch work will be needed with cheap pieces. Other teams have done this, with our core the Leafs should be able to do the same.

LA has Brown, Kopitar, Doughty, Quick, Kovalchuk, etc... all in the expensive contracts on the downside of their careers. Causing a cap crunch.

Pitt has Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang causing theirs. Are they all going to be better next season?

Was has Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie, Holtby, Carlsson causing their cap issues.

Chicago has Kane, Toews, Seabrook, Keith causing theirs.

Would rather have Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander and Reilly causing our issues with their promising careers in front of them.

Things will work out. Just let it pan out before we judge.

 

[deletethis]

LA has Brown, Kopitar, Doughty, Quick, Kovalchuk, etc... all in the expensive contracts on the downside of their careers. Causing a cap crunch.

Pitt has Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang causing theirs. Are they all going to be better next season?

Was has Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie, Holtby, Carlsson causing their cap issues.

Chicago has Kane, Toews, Seabrook, Keith causing theirs.

Would rather have Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander and Reilly causing our issues with their promising careers in front of them.

Things will work out. Just let it pan out before we judge.

The sole reason to choose the Leafs' version of cap crunch is that it involves younger talent. 3 out of those 4 examples are cap crunches AS A RESULT OF ACTUAL SUCCESS in the playoffs. The Leafs' crew are getting paid for qualifying for the playoffs and losing first round series in consecutive seasons.

 

[BlueForever75]

The sole reason to choose the Leafs' version of cap crunch is that it involves younger talent. 3 out of those 4 examples are cap crunches AS A RESULT OF ACTUAL SUCCESS in the playoffs. The Leafs' crew are getting paid for qualifying for the playoffs and losing first round series in consecutive seasons.

Personally I would rather be in the Leafs cap crunch then those teams. At least we are forecasting success and putting ourselves in a position to pay fairly for a team that is winning now. I don't want to be paying players higher salaries later for what they accomplished already. Everyone has to believe the cap will continue to rise over the next 5-6 years. If it does, the contracts signed will be nothing compared to what others will be signing.

Paying players a large sum into the twilight of their careers where they no longer produce at what they are paid is not a position the Leafs want to get in. Once we have Marleau off the books we wont have a player that fits that description and that is a great thing for a contending team. Regardless of how you slice it.

 

[thewave]

The sole reason to choose the Leafs' version of cap crunch is that it involves younger talent. 3 out of those 4 examples are cap crunches AS A RESULT OF ACTUAL SUCCESS in the playoffs. The Leafs' crew are getting paid for qualifying for the playoffs and losing first round series in consecutive seasons.

Exactly, and anyone that doesn't have problems with participation awards is likely missing the mark. The league comes down to PO performance ultimately, as should be, the point is to win the cup and anything less is a failed season.

 

[Menzinger]

Personally I would rather be in the Leafs cap crunch then those teams. At least we are forecasting success and putting ourselves in a position to pay fairly for a team that is winning now. I don't want to be paying players higher salaries later for what they accomplished already. Everyone has to believe the cap will continue to rise over the next 5-6 years. If it does, the contracts signed will be nothing compared to what others will be signing.

Paying players a large sum into the twilight of their careers where they no longer produce at what they are paid is not a position the Leafs want to get in. Once we have Marleau off the books we wont have a player that fits that description and that is a great thing for a contending team. Regardless of how you slice it.

Rewarding older guys with. If paydays for success they had while younger is the biggest reason for almost every terrible contract in the league - agreed that is not paying for guys in their primes.

Look no further than Marleau. His contract is based on legacy not current abilities

 

[Menzinger]

Let's hope not. It's pretty clear that after Kapanen's late season slump both Kapanen and Johnsson can legitimately demand a bridge deal in the vicinity of $3.3M AAV over 2 years.

Thas still muh higher than we should expect.

Their best comparables have them getting like 2.1-2,7 mil aav in such a small term. 3ish would be a number if we were talking 4-5 year contracts though

 

[Mr Hockey]

Rewarding older guys with. If paydays for success they had while younger is the biggest reason for almost every terrible contract in the league - agreed that is not paying for guys in their primes.

Look no further than Marleau. His contract is based on legacy not current abilities

You still don't understand why Marleau was signed?