2019-20 General Lightning Discussion - Part 3: Uncharted

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Sky04

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Jan 8, 2009
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I'm surprised Coburn hasn't been moved to Calgary yet... They've been looking for a vet defenseman on the right side and Coburn's family is there, he isn't going to get much playing time here if he's hoping for another contract after this one.

Anything other than Foote should be on the table to get Johnson off the books completely. JBB can be pretty anal when it comes to value so I hope it's not his ego holding back a trade.

Johnson + Coburn off the books should give us enough to re-sign everyone to a reasonable contract given the circumstances.
 

LightningStrikes

Champa Bay Lightning
Nov 24, 2009
26,061
9,771
You could see it either way (slide a year or not) - either way helps us keep the core together. Coleman and Goodrow are great, but they're filler pieces not core pieces (and I think we could sign Goodrow fairly cheaply anyway, although Coleman is getting a pretty fat raise so he may be priced out).

Johnson's NTC goes away (as do others). Killorn's contract looks a lot prettier. Three years is a lot less of an albatross than 4. Seattle takes a contract off of our books for free.
If there was no 2020-21 season would those special clauses like NTCs or even salary really just go away (lose a year) or just be postponed? Does anybody know how these contracts are structured i.e. is it “$5M and NTC in 2020-21” or “$5M and NTC in year/season 2 of the contract (when/if there is a season)”?

I would guess it’s the former as lockdowns have been a thing but I just wonder. A lockdown enforced by the league / owners due to a pandemic sure is a different thing than a holdout initiated by players and the PA.
 
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Byrddog

Lifer
Nov 23, 2007
7,471
823
AS important as contracts are right now when the season is canceled yes the contracts will be shortened by a year. The problem is the player is now a year older as well. Additionally many players will not have played from March 2019 to Oct 2021. Every team will be effected. You will have guys in the pipeline adding a year of age while missing the same time period setting development back while the contract remains the same. The Cap will crash and as in times past during the lockout attendance will be soft even moreso as scared shitless as people are now. There are no positives shutting down the season Buttman knows this but he is not going to have much choice. The league is not going to play in a bubble an entire year nor can they afford to play even 25 games with no fans in the stands. If I were betting I would think we lose somewhere between 4 and 8 teams and Seattle postpones fielding a team for at least a year.
 

BoltSTH

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Sep 4, 2008
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The question is, does the TV revenue offset playing in empty, or very reduced seating, arenas in the USA? With 200K positive Covid-19 tests, and 1200 deaths a day in the US I don't see a safe way to have a 2020-21 season, even shortened, until there is widespread use of a vaccine in the general population, which is expected to be the summer of 2021.
If the season is lost then Goodrow, Coleman, Paquette, Coburn, Shenn, Mcbackup are all UFA, plus Palat and Killorn have one less year on the contracts, so easier to move.
 

DrMartinVanNostrand

Kramerica Industries
Oct 6, 2017
4,508
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Of course, you're also losing a year of Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, and Vasi (among others) while they're still in the prime of their careers, so that's also something to keep in mind when discussing the "benefits" of having a season washed out.

EDIT - Byrddog basically made the same point.
 
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Todd1a

Kucherov or prospect
Jun 19, 2014
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Of course, you're also losing a year of Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, and Vasi (among others) while they're still in the prime of their careers, so that's also something to keep in mind when discussing the "benefits" of having a season washed out.

EDIT - Byrddog basically made the same point.

me very time the lightning win the cup no season after!
 

BoltzManConstant

Registered User
Mar 8, 2017
1,150
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Yeah, losing the season directly after we the season where we were unequivocally the best team in the league is some bad damn luck. Windows are small and this just makes it smaller.

I mean yes, we got a Cup but I want MOOORE!

If there's any way the league can afford the seaon, I desperately want them to do it. I'd like to see them cut down the regular season to either 2 games or 4 games with every team in your division and that's it (so a 14 or 28 game regular season), and that's it. Similar to the (soccer) World Cup group stage.

Regular season is too damn long anyway.
 
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T REX

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Feb 28, 2013
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The question is, does the TV revenue offset playing in empty, or very reduced seating, arenas in the USA? With 200K positive Covid-19 tests, and 1200 deaths a day in the US I don't see a safe way to have a 2020-21 season, even shortened, until there is widespread use of a vaccine in the general population, which is expected to be the summer of 2021.
If the season is lost then Goodrow, Coleman, Paquette, Coburn, Shenn, Mcbackup are all UFA, plus Palat and Killorn have one less year on the contracts, so easier to move.

Absolutely not. NHL is gate driven. No fans means losing massive money.

They can't play without fans.
 

Letsgobolts21

Registered User
Apr 19, 2019
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I think they try something stripped down as suggested to get to the playoffs banking on no fans for regular season- maybe very limited numbers, but the big hope is by a playoff start date in May fans can come back with the vaccines and they can either get half full or even full arenas (unlikely), but it gets 21-22 on track for full season with fans.

I saw Boston isn't charging their December payment to STM members. Haven't seen that yet from us, but I pay in monthly and I have 3 months left to be paid in full for 20-21 season so at some point they are going to have to stop charging or start trying to roll over those payments to something else b/c there is no way they have 41 home games for this season with full fans--even here.
 

T REX

Registered User
Feb 28, 2013
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People behind the scenes are suggesting there will be a season, likely 60 games

I understand. It's also just simple math. The players would have to take a massive paycut for this season to happen. Massive. Or massive deferment. TV money isn't enough to float a season.
 

DistantThunderRep

Registered User
Mar 8, 2018
19,303
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I think they try something stripped down as suggested to get to the playoffs banking on no fans for regular season- maybe very limited numbers, but the big hope is by a playoff start date in May fans can come back with the vaccines and they can either get half full or even full arenas (unlikely), but it gets 21-22 on track for full season with fans.

I saw Boston isn't charging their December payment to STM members. Haven't seen that yet from us, but I pay in monthly and I have 3 months left to be paid in full for 20-21 season so at some point they are going to have to stop charging or start trying to roll over those payments to something else b/c there is no way they have 41 home games for this season with full fans--even here.
If you don't mind me asking, how much is it usually for a year?
 

Letsgobolts21

Registered User
Apr 19, 2019
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For my tickets it's roughly $4k (half season) for 2 seats with that spread out evenly over 12 payments.
 

BowDownToVasilevskiy

Registered User
Jun 30, 2013
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Stamkos cup 3.jpg

Still the champs! Have a good day everyone.
 

BoltzManConstant

Registered User
Mar 8, 2017
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So how does it work if someone (Stamkos) goes on LTIR for the entire season? That would give us just about the right amount of cap space to sign everyone and make it through the regular season.

My understanding is that the salary cap is entirely turned off for the playoffs.

Could Stammer play in the playoffs if he sat on LTIR all regular season? We'd probably have problems with whoever is insuring his contract (I assume we have insurance on him), but we could probably settle with them for something less than the full season's payment without ever putting anything in writing that says he was healthy enough to play.
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
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So how does it work if someone (Stamkos) goes on LTIR for the entire season? That would give us just about the right amount of cap space to sign everyone and make it through the regular season.

My understanding is that the salary cap is entirely turned off for the playoffs.

Could Stammer play in the playoffs if he sat on LTIR all regular season? We'd probably have problems with whoever is insuring his contract (I assume we have insurance on him), but we could probably settle with them for something less than the full season's payment without ever putting anything in writing that says he was healthy enough to play.

This is stupid, first because Stamkos himself would not agree to it, and second LTIR states you MUST activate a player when they are cleared to play, why would the team subject themselves to huge penalties and fines? It would be incredibly embarrassing to get caught with that mid-season, take a huge penalty, and forced to trade a signed Sergachev/Cirelli for pennies to get cap compliant.

Chicago only got away with Kane because they were a month away from the end of the season and they had reasonably assumed he would not finish the regular season given the 12 week prognosis.
 

J T Money

Biggest Bozo
Jan 21, 2016
2,740
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Really? :) :) Unfortunately I cannot hear/watch a lot that station (I can only watch them on FB).
But I really appreciate Jay Recher and his teammates_ their coverage is really nice

They were just talking about distant thunder and awesome fans of the Lightning and had to talk about the one and only Fabio from Italy ;)

Ian is an acquaintance of mine, so I listen every afternoon.

This is stupid, first because Stamkos himself would not agree to it, and second LTIR states you MUST activate a player when they are cleared to play, why would the team subject themselves to huge penalties and fines? It would be incredibly embarrassing to get caught with that mid-season, take a huge penalty, and forced to trade a signed Sergachev/Cirelli for pennies to get cap compliant.

Chicago only got away with Kane because they were a month away from the end of the season and they had reasonably assumed he would not finish the regular season given the 12 week prognosis.

Don’t forget about the legal (criminal and civil) ramifications of defrauding the insurance company.

Zero chance they try to LTIR Stamkos unless he seriously can’t play.
 
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BoltzManConstant

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This is stupid, first because Stamkos himself would not agree to it, and second LTIR states you MUST activate a player when they are cleared to play, why would the team subject themselves to huge penalties and fines? It would be incredibly embarrassing to get caught with that mid-season, take a huge penalty, and forced to trade a signed Sergachev/Cirelli for pennies to get cap compliant.

Chicago only got away with Kane because they were a month away from the end of the season and they had reasonably assumed he would not finish the regular season.

It's a simple question dude, if you don't know the answer you don't need to get all pissy.

Yes it only works if Stammer generally goes along, but he rehabbed for 6 months and then it took all of one shot in his third minute on the ice to set himself all the way back to where he was in March. That's how difficult and delicate it is to come back from this. The man just had major surgery -- it may well appeal to him to say "I'm not gonna play until June to make sure I don't f it again next time I play".

And who exactly do you think makes the decision on "cleared to play"?

Sure there's some risk here, but I just want to know if the rules allow for it.
 

BoltzManConstant

Registered User
Mar 8, 2017
1,150
872
Upper West Side
Don’t forget about the legal (criminal and civil) ramifications of defrauding the insurance company.

Zero chance they try to LTIR Stamkos unless he seriously can’t play.

Re-read my post, I addressed that specifically. You come to a settlement with the insurer for this season now, so they no longer have any interest in his health or injury this season. E.g., if the doctors think he's going to need to miss, say, 3/4 of the season, you offer the insurer now to settle for only half his salary (rather than 3/4) regardless of how many games he plays. It's good for them because they pay less than they'll probably need to, good for you because only team-friendly doctors will be assessing his ability to play.
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
28,955
17,896
It's a simple question dude, if you don't know the answer you don't need to get all pissy.

Yes it only works if Stammer generally goes along, but he rehabbed for 6 months and then it took all of one shot in his third minute on the ice to set himself all the way back to where he was in March. That's how difficult and delicate it is to come back from this. The man just had major surgery -- it may well appeal to him to say "I'm not gonna play until June to make sure I don't f it again next time I play".

And who exactly do you think makes the decision on "cleared to play"?

Sure there's some risk here, but I just want to know if the rules allow for it.

It's called cap circumvention.
 
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