Speculation: 2019-20 Expected Blackhawks Roster Part III

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ChiHawks10

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Jul 7, 2009
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Yeah, well, the fanboy thing was out of line.

And just generally stupid cause I genuinely think you’re one of the more rational posters here. I dont know why I went there, or so quickly. Maybe I need a workout.

I apologize again.

Ill post numbers in a bit.

And sorry for being a dick, lol. The fanboy thing did kind of set me off. Especially when I like Keith as a player, and for how good he has been, but despise the type of player he can be at times. He's sneakily one of the dirtiest players in the league, and I have no respect for that type of shit. I'm the farthest thing from a fanboy of his. I like him cus he's a Hawk. I'd probably hate him if he were on another team. Kind of like a Marchand.

As for numbers, I've looked at them all already since we had this argument with someone else a couple weeks ago. His numbers aren't shining, and don't scream "top pairing" but you have to put it into the context of the team he was on, the goalies he played in front of, etc. When you do that, his numbers are actually great, IMO.

And again, that site has his 3 past years, and the statistics they used for their rankings:

Definitive ranking of NHL’s top 20 defencemen over three seasons - Sportsnet.ca

And that's not including this season, which IMO, is the best of the past 2-3.
 

DisgruntledHawkFan

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I mean, writing this team in pen as a lottery or playoff team is goofy to me. If things go right, I absolutely see this team as 6-8 seed. If they don’t, I think we’ll be in the 9-10 range.

Ever the optimist, I think we see the Hawks play meaningful hockey in April next year. I could very easily see this team flounder if Crow isn’t healthy and Delia isn’t consistent.

And Keith is on Keith. He was good early, ass for a month, and decent to great for the rest of the year.
 

DisgruntledHawkFan

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I will say that dumpster fire Keith month was the lowest I’ve ever been on him. He’s a fiery prick. Losing Q should have had him pissed off, not checked out. He’s definitely got fuel left in the tank, but is he at quarter or about to hit E?
 

Hattrick Kane

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Oct 8, 2018
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I will say that dumpster fire Keith month was the lowest I’ve ever been on him. He’s a fiery prick. Losing Q should have had him pissed off, not checked out. He’s definitely got fuel left in the tank, but is he at quarter or about to hit E?
He was good for the most part. He looked good with Joker and Gus. I’m willing to bet he probably looks the worst when playing with Seabrook.

But who wouldn’t? The fact that Seabrook has a roster spot locked up next year is vomit inducing.

It’s also not easy picking up a new system in the middle of the season.
 
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ChicagoHockeyFan

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Mar 3, 2019
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The question I ask is which of the playoff teams this year aren’t in next year. As of now they all probably look pretty good for next season but that is gonna change after a big offseason with tons of big FA’s. I don’t really see us passing Trashville, St.Loser, or Colorado for next season. Maybe Winnipeg has an off year or Dallas regresses? I don’t think we’re gonna get a top 3 spot in the central so we will have to fight it out for a WC spot. The Yotes will improve after an injury plagued season.

It’s so hard to say what will happen next season and I think hawks will be close to playoffs or in playoffs but I think a lot has to go right if we want to be in next season, I sure hope it does.
 

JaegerDice

The mark of my dignity shall scar thy DNA
Dec 26, 2014
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And sorry for being a dick, lol. The fanboy thing did kind of set me off. Especially when I like Keith as a player, and for how good he has been, but despise the type of player he can be at times. He's sneakily one of the dirtiest players in the league, and I have no respect for that type of ****. I'm the farthest thing from a fanboy of his. I like him cus he's a Hawk. I'd probably hate him if he were on another team. Kind of like a Marchand.

As for numbers, I've looked at them all already since we had this argument with someone else a couple weeks ago. His numbers aren't shining, and don't scream "top pairing" but you have to put it into the context of the team he was on, the goalies he played in front of, etc. When you do that, his numbers are actually great, IMO.

And again, that site has his 3 past years, and the statistics they used for their rankings:

Definitive ranking of NHL’s top 20 defencemen over three seasons - Sportsnet.ca

And that's not including this season, which IMO, is the best of the past 2-3.

I see where you're coming from.

Funny enough, Keith is one of my favorite players ever, so if anything I'd probably be called a fanboy of his discussing him anywhere other than a Blackhawks forum. And I'd probably be much less critical of him in any mixed-fan company too.

And if I wasn't clear (and I probably wasn't cause I was being a dick), my position isn't that Duncan Keith is a bad player, or has aged into uselessness, or the Blackhawks should trade him ASAP, or anything like that. In fact, even the phrase "Keith played bad this year" is harsher than I intend. I would say 'I think Keith struggled this season'. The numbers show he struggled, by his standards, and by top D standards (If you've looked at the numbers, then I won't bother bringing them up unless anybody else really wants to see them).

The funny thing is, despite the joke about me never watching games and only looking at spreadsheets (which I don't mind, for the record, I can wear that as my schtick with a knowing grin), my perception of Keith this season is actually based a lot on the eye-test. Stats are an output, they're results. If I watched Keith and genuinely felt that he was playing well and was merely being dragged down by a lack of support, or bad goaltending, or a systems change, then I would feel differently. And no doubt all of those things are factors. But my concern about Keith is much more about the WHY he struggled. The inputs. The reasons for those outputs... and yeah, that's eye-test stuff, because counting events is counting events. You can't see WHY they happened (for good and for bad).

This season, I saw a lot of instances of Keith trying to do the same kinds of moves, make the same kinds of plays, or make the same decisions as he always has... the kind plays and decisions that made him so great. And it's just not working, because he's maybe getting 90% of the way there, but not quite. Or he pulls it off, but once he does, the players around him catch up so quick that he has no time and space to make a decision, and ends up making a bad play, or he makes a great play, but the opposition just recover faster than it takes him to follow-up. It wasn't like 'oh, he made a bad decision cause he had a mental hiccup adjusting to Coliton's system' it was like 'he's trying the same play he's made dozens of times a game over the last decade, because he still thinks he has the legs to make it work'. And I'm not sure he can.

My concern for Keith is that even if you provide him with great support, he's going to need to adjust a bit for the realities of father time... and those adjustments may yet rob him of at least some of what made him so impactful. And it's not so much a concern, really, as a bittersweet realization that the Blackhawks have been so lucky to have this pillar for so long, that we've been spoiled. That I've been spoiled, and have come to expect ELITE, just because we've just had ELITE as a matter of fact for the last decade. And now ELITE might be aging into merely GREAT, and suddenly building a winner gets so much harder from such a small decline. Like, 'f***, now we're stuck dealing with the same problems as all those other poor schlubs in the NHL'.

My concern is that, I'm not sure you can replace ELITE, with a lot of GREAT. I think you need replace ELITE with ELITE if you want to see similar standards hold, and short of Boqvist and maybe this Byram kid, I'm not sure we have anybody in the pipeline with a ceiling above GREAT. Which is probably why I'm more bullish than most above forking over the money for a guy that has proven to be ELITE and hope the injuries aren't a permanent issue... and why I'm far less bullish on spending UFA premiums for more good to great, rather than saving that money for when we are lucky or smart enough to draft/develop/trade for/sign ELITE.
 
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CallMeShaft

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Apr 14, 2014
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I will say that dumpster fire Keith month was the lowest I’ve ever been on him. He’s a fiery prick. Losing Q should have had him pissed off, not checked out. He’s definitely got fuel left in the tank, but is he at quarter or about to hit E?
Like Hattrick Kane said, Keith struggled with the different systems.

And it's pretty obvious that he would've looking back on things. Colliton drastically changed the way the Hawks defended and moved the puck up ice, and Keith, playing more minutes under Q than anyone else, was going to have a re-adjustment period.

From January 1st til the end of the season, Keith was a +16, good for 9th for defensemen. Obviously plus/minus isn't the best stat (though it's super easy to find which is why I'm referencing it), but it does help showcase how good Keith started to become after the long adjustment period.
 

DisgruntledHawkFan

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Like Hattrick Kane said, Keith struggled with the different systems.

And it's pretty obvious that he would've looking back on things. Colliton drastically changed the way the Hawks defended and moved the puck up ice, and Keith, playing more minutes under Q than anyone else, was going to have a re-adjustment period.

From January 1st til the end of the season, Keith was a +16, good for 9th for defensemen. Obviously plus/minus isn't the best stat (though it's super easy to find which is why I'm referencing it), but it does help showcase how good Keith started to become after the long adjustment period.
I genuinely don’t think it was just the systems change. Plenty of shifts where Keith just looked like he didn’t give a f***.
 

JaegerDice

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Dec 26, 2014
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I genuinely don’t think it was just the systems change. Plenty of shifts where Keith just looked like he didn’t give a ****.

In fairness, this isn't the first time Keith has pouted.

He spent most of 2011 in a similar funk, and it wasn't until Torres mashed Seabrook that he woke up for a few games (and gave the Canucks a heartattack). After the fact (I'm not sure if it was after that playoffs, or sometime in 2012) he basically admitted that watching so many of his friends leave in the cap purge got to him, and he didn't have his heart in it for awhile.
 

DisgruntledHawkFan

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I see where you're coming from.

Funny enough, Keith is one of my favorite players ever, so if anything I'd probably be called a fanboy of his discussing him anywhere other than a Blackhawks forum. And I'd probably be much less critical of him in any mixed-fan company too.

And if I wasn't clear (and I probably wasn't cause I was being a dick), my position isn't that Duncan Keith is a bad player, or has aged into uselessness, or the Blackhawks should trade him ASAP, or anything like that. In fact, even the phrase "Keith played bad this year" is harsher than I intend. I would say 'I think Keith struggled this season'. The numbers show he struggled, by his standards, and by top D standards (If you've looked at the numbers, then I won't bother bringing them up unless anybody else really wants to see them).

The funny thing is, despite the joke about me never watching games and only looking at spreadsheets (which I don't mind, for the record, I can wear that as my schtick with a knowing grin), my perception of Keith this season is actually based a lot on the eye-test. Stats are an output, they're results. If I watched Keith and genuinely felt that he was playing well and was merely being dragged down by a lack of support, or bad goaltending, or a systems change, then I would feel differently. And no doubt all of those things are factors. But my concern about Keith is much more about the WHY he struggled. The inputs. The reasons for those outputs... and yeah, that's eye-test stuff, because counting events is counting events. You can't see WHY they happened (for good and for bad).

This season, I saw a lot of instances of Keith trying to do the same kinds of moves, make the same kinds of plays, or make the same decisions as he always has... the kind plays and decisions that made him so great. And it's just not working, because he's maybe getting 90% of the way there, but not quite. Or he pulls it off, but once he does, the players around him catch up so quick that he has no time and space to make a decision, and ends up making a bad play, or he makes a great play, but the opposition just recover faster than it takes him to follow-up. It wasn't like 'oh, he made a bad decision cause he had a mental hiccup adjusting to Coliton's system' it was like 'he's trying the same play he's made dozens of times a game over the last decade, because he still thinks he has the legs to make it work'. And I'm not sure he can.

My concern for Keith is that even if you provide him with great support, he's going to need to adjust a bit for the realities of father time... and those adjustments may yet rob him of at least some of what made him so impactful. And it's not so much a concern, really, as a bittersweet realization that the Blackhawks have been so lucky to have this pillar for so long, that we've been spoiled. That I've been spoiled, and have come to expect ELITE, just because we've just had ELITE as a matter of fact for the last decade. And now ELITE might be aging into merely GREAT, and suddenly building a winner gets so much harder from such a small decline. Like, '****, now we're stuck dealing with the same problems as all those other poor schlubs in the NHL'.

My concern is that, I'm not sure you can replace ELITE, with a lot of GREAT. I think you need replace ELITE with ELITE if you want to see similar standards hold, and short of Boqvist and maybe this Byram kid, I'm not sure we have anybody in the pipeline with a ceiling above GREAT. Which is probably why I'm more bullish than most above forking over the money for a guy that has proven to be ELITE and hope the injuries aren't a permanent issue... and why I'm far less bullish on spending UFA premiums for more good to great, rather than saving that money for when we are lucky or smart enough to draft/develop/trade for/sign ELITE.
I can definitely understand wanting to replace Keith another elite top end guy, but I don’t think EK or PK is at that level anymore and I’d rather pay market rate for good than mortgage the future for very good - great at an elite price point.
 

CallMeShaft

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Apr 14, 2014
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I genuinely don’t think it was just the systems change. Plenty of shifts where Keith just looked like he didn’t give a ****.
I do think some of that is not fully grasping the man-on-man systems. Frustration with that system change made him look worse out there.

It looked like he started to get more comfortable after a while with the different systems and that's when his play started to pick up. Soon after that, Colliton started shifting into more of a hybrid defensive system (which is what should've been used all along), and I think Keith played his best hockey of the season at that point.
 
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DisgruntledHawkFan

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I do think some of that is not fully grasping the man-on-man systems. Frustration with that system change made him look worse out there.

It looked like he started to get more comfortable after a while with the different systems and that's when his play started to pick up. Soon after that, Colliton started shifting into more of a hybrid defensive system (which is what should've been used all along), and I think Keith played his best hockey of the season at that point.
His play picked up when the teams did. We went on a month long death march this year like we did the last half of the 17-18 season where the whole team played defeated.
 

CallMeShaft

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The only way we're getting an elite defender is through our farm.

EK is injury riddled and is not a good bet for the future and trading for that type of player will cost an arm and a leg.

Bowman drafted a bunch of defensive prospects recently because top 4 guys are so hard to acquire (he specifically stated as much). We just gotta hope one of Boqvist, Jokiharju, Mitchell, or Krys (or Byram if we draft him) can become a top defender. There is no other option for us.
 

DisgruntledHawkFan

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The only way we're getting an elite defender is through our farm.

EK is injury riddled and is not a good bet for the future and trading for that type of player will cost an arm and a leg.

Bowman drafted a bunch of defensive prospects recently because top 4 guys are so hard to acquire (he specifically stated as much). We just gotta hope one of Boqvist, Jokiharju, Mitchell, or Krys (or Byram if we draft him) can become a top defender. There is no other option for us.
Who was the last true franchise #1 defenseman moved outside of PK and that was a locker room issue? Pronger? And that was strictly a financial decision.
 

CallMeShaft

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His play picked up when the teams did. We went on a month long death march this year like we did the last half of the 17-18 season where the whole team played defeated.
I think that long period of Ls was in large part due to the coaching/systems change, and IMO, Keith suffered the most with the change. Colliton himself said it was hard getting the team to change when there is so little time for practice sessions (and for those who aren't aware, no, morning skates are not the same as practice). It took a long time for the team to adjust, but after that adjustment period, they started looking like a team that should've made the playoffs.
 

JaegerDice

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Who was the last true franchise #1 defenseman moved outside of PK and that was a locker room issue? Pronger? And that was strictly a financial decision.

Given the return of a 1C, you could argue Seth Jones was traded as 1D (as perceived by the team getting him). He wasn't the 1D on Nashville when he was traded though, so maybe he doesn't count.

He's a 1D now, that's for sure.
 
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CallMeShaft

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Who was the last true franchise #1 defenseman moved outside of PK and that was a locker room issue? Pronger? And that was strictly a financial decision.
No idea. Shit just doesn't happen often.

He wasn't traded away, but Chara leaving Ottawa for Boston in 2006 was another semi-recent #1 going to a new organization. Of course Chara didn't re-sign with Ottawa, however, because they dicked over Hossa.

Edit: JD is right with Jones. Forgot about him.
 

DisgruntledHawkFan

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Given the return of a 1C, you could argue Seth Jones was traded as 1D (as perceived by the team getting him). He wasn't the 1D on Nashville when he was traded though, so maybe he doesn't count.

He's a 1D now, that's for sure.
Jones was potential for potential. Jones definitely wasn’t the player he is now at the time.
 

DisgruntledHawkFan

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No idea. **** just doesn't happen often.

He wasn't traded away, but Chara leaving Ottawa for Boston in 2006 was another semi-recent #1 going to a new organization. Of course Chara didn't re-sign with Ottawa, however, because they dicked over Hossa.

Edit: JD is right with Jones. Forgot about him.
Chara left because the Sens could only afford him or Redden. They obviously chose poorly, but they didn’t want to move Z.
 

CallMeShaft

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Chara left because the Sens could only afford him or Redden. They obviously chose poorly, but they didn’t want to move Z.
I thought part of it was Z didn't want to sign with them. He was going to be an UFA and them trading his buddy Hossa, after just re-signing with them, put a bad taste in his mouth.
 
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