2019-20 Dallas Stars Regular Season Discussion - Part II

[serp]

 

[JesusNPucks]

Of course, everyone is replaceable. And the Carbo line was a unique combo of Hicks willing to spend anything for a Cup. BTW, they were great, but actually had a negative +/-, IIRC. These days, they would probably get crucified on the internet, LOL, but hockey guys knew how good they were.

What do you think Faksa will command above his $2.2M now? $3.3M? $4.4? I don't even know who the best checking centers are, and what they make? Anyone who can fill me in, it would be interested. I know Nill thought a similar player in Eakin was expendable at $3.85M. Bump that to $4 for inflation, and I think anything in that range would make Nill trade him. At a 50% raise to $3.25-3.3, I think he stays.

But, who knows. If they somehow sign Taylor Hall, without using him as trade bait, they may be under a lot of pressure to bring up Robertson, Ottenger, etc. to fill in at sub million dollar contracts to allow another high dollar guy.

The question is, do stars and scrubs win the cup, or does sub 30 year old vets across the roster do it. I think most SC winners have the bulk of their roster filled out with guys like Faksa. If you want to win in the next 3 years, you can't constantly be relying on unproven guys, especially in a defensive system, but sometimes for cap reasons, you have to.

Your guess is as good as mine, right? I bet he will want Eakin or higher money; you gave a great comparable, by the way. I’m actually not a fan of signing Hall, but would be okay with a rental, so long as Harley stays put. Basically, my view is that if another team wants to make a solid checking-line center like Faksa the centerpiece of a deal, let them. We’d get the better player and IMHO already have a replacement ready internally.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Not sure what Janmark has done to get a look on the top line. Also Benn at RW and Pavelski at LW?

 

[serp]

Not sure what Janmark has done to get a look on the top line. Also Benn at RW and Pavelski at LW?

To me its more about who already failed Benn and Seguin and the fact that the FCC line is staying together and that the Gurianov-Dickinson-Perry line was easily the teams best line last game and won't be broken up until it no longer does well. Not so much about Janmark. Hintz doesn't seem to work with Benn and Seguin , Radulov hasn't been good there either and Pavelski never worked well with those two either. Only Janmark left to put there.

 

[Satan]

the lines are going to get scrambled 5 minutes into the game - who cares

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

To me its more about who already failed Benn and Seguin and the fact that the FCC line is staying together and that the Gurianov-Dickinson-Perry line was easily the teams best line last game and won't be broken up until it no longer does well. Not so much about Janmark. Hintz doesn't seem to work with Benn and Seguin , Radulov hasn't been good there either and Pavelski never worked well with those two either. Only Janmark left to put there.

Fair enough, I just feel if they are going to toss feces at the wall and hope it sticks I’d toss Gurianov in as Benn/Seguin’s right wing. At the end of the day the lines will get blended and everyone is getting decent minutes anyways so doesn’t really matter.

 

[serp]

The team wants to roll 4 lines who can all do things anyway so whatever. In certain situation we'll see the completely different lines and pairings anyway.

The whole lineup is fluid.

 

[hairylikebear]

Monty plays a passive 1 forechecker scheme most of the time so that forechecker needs to be pretty good at it. Janmark is a good fit and that's pretty much the only thing Dowling can do at an NHL level which explains his roster spot. If Gurianov is the wing, Seguin has to fill that role on their line. I guess this setup is designed to help Seguin find his offense.

 

[eartotheground]

last year it was readily apparent that the team needed to add a top 6 scorer.

this year, if you only get to add one piece at the TDL, what do you go for? more top 6 fire power? top 4 defender? the bottom 6 and top 3.5 seem pretty set imo.. no point in adding if you don't add anything top tier.

 

[Timani]

Another White Elephant Day episode of Monty on Monty. "Good luck with your bush, coach!"

White Elephant Afternoon Drive 2019- Monty on Monty - The Ticket Top 10 - Omny.fm

 

[M88K]

last year it was readily apparent that the team needed to add a top 6 scorer.

this year, if you only get to add one piece at the TDL, what do you go for? more top 6 fire power? top 4 defender? the bottom 6 and top 3.5 seem pretty set imo.. no point in adding if you don't add anything top tier.

That.
Can't Rely on Benn, Hintz is a rush scorer mostly, with a highly unsustainable shooting %, and has already started to fall back to earth.

Seguin has been enigmatic, still the best offensively overall, but Miro has almost caught and passed him, which is a big indictment of how weak that top6 really is.

Anyway
Seguin is pacing for 60ish points
Heiskanen 55ish points
Radulov 46ish
Benn 40
Hintz 40ish
Pavelski 35ish
Faksa 32ish.


Part of the lack of scoring is Monty's shit-ass system, but that is our "top 6 forwards" and our #1 defenseman.
The only one pacing for good scoring levels is Miro relative to the role he plays.
This is a team that is starved for scoring help, obviously a lot of that is on the completely shit system, and you wonder how much another legitimate scoring threat will actually help because you can't get around the limitations of the coaches system that has very obvious shortcomings in the offensive zone and PP schemes
But a big upgrade up front, helps more than a marginal upgrade on Oleksiak/Sekera will.
That said, Nill is still somehow in charge of things, so i fully expect to see another #5-6 defenseman picked up, like last year, billed as an "elite" addition.
Or another Cogliano waste of space type move, that doesn't make the team better

 

[serp]

The way minutes are distibuted its pretty clear that the big guys points will be down. If you're playing 2-4 minutes less than usual you get less point. Overall the team is scoring more than last year just way way more balanced . Scoring back to about where it was under Hitch just not individual scoring.

There just won't be any scoring champions on this team and how could there be ? Stars don't have a single forward averaging even 19 minutes per game and none of the forwards average less than 11 either.

Defenseman is the only place where the team heavily relies on a few guys and thats where it shows pointswise .

I don't care if nobody gets 80 points. If everybody who regularly plays gets at least 20 points that more than makes up for that.

 

[Smelling Salt]

Another White Elephant Day episode of Monty on Monty. "Good luck with your bush, coach!"

White Elephant Afternoon Drive 2019- Monty on Monty - The Ticket Top 10 - Omny.fm

Wtf lol

 

[serp]

 

[BfantZ]

The way minutes are distibuted its pretty clear that the big guys points will be down. If you're playing 2-4 minutes less than usual you get less point. Overall the team is scoring more than last year just way way more balanced . Scoring back to about where it was under Hitch just not individual scoring.

There just won't be any scoring champions on this team and how could there be ? Stars don't have a single forward averaging even 19 minutes per game and none of the forwards average less than 11 either.

Defenseman is the only place where the team heavily relies on a few guys and thats where it shows pointswise .

I don't care if nobody gets 80 points. If everybody who regularly plays gets at least 20 points that more than makes up for that.

Ya I remember when Benn won the art ross it was him and seguin on the ice all game . I will take making the playoffs any day over having the scoring champion .

 

[serp]

 

[BrettHullsToe]

So more than anything, I'm now questioning the value of xGoals for and against per 60. According to that data, if the Rangers offered to trade their line for the Avs line straight up (ignoring cap), then Colorado should gladly accept.

But I'm pretty sure no one in the real world would think that trade is a remotely good idea, including the guy who came up with those numbers. So if you can't use those numbers to predict the probable near-future, what good are they?

 

[M88K]

The way minutes are distibuted its pretty clear that the big guys points will be down. If you're playing 2-4 minutes less than usual you get less point. Overall the team is scoring more than last year just way way more balanced . Scoring back to about where it was under Hitch just not individual scoring.

There just won't be any scoring champions on this team and how could there be ? Stars don't have a single forward averaging even 19 minutes per game and none of the forwards average less than 11 either.

Defenseman is the only place where the team heavily relies on a few guys and thats where it shows pointswise .

I don't care if nobody gets 80 points. If everybody who regularly plays gets at least 20 points that more than makes up for that.

This literally applies to only Benn, and he's washed up so yeah, his time should be down.
Seguin is down 1 shift (30secs) from his career average with Dallas. (19:25) He's literally broken 20min only 2x, (The Hitchcock season and Monty last year)
If you go back to 13-14, only 2 years, did the team not have all 12 regular forwards at/above 12mins (Hitchcock and Monty yr 1)

Ya I remember when Benn won the art ross it was him and seguin on the ice all game . I will take making the playoffs any day over having the scoring champion .

You remember wrong
Benn played just under 20 a game, and Seguin played 36 seconds more than he does not. Benn is down about 3mins from that year, but he sucks quite a bit now compared to then and the ice time balance that year(14-15) was actually better than this year under Monty. literally had 15 forwards who played 12 or more (due to injuries of course)
In fact only McKenzie or Morin were under that mark. Kind of like how Gardner and Caamano are currently.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

So more than anything, I'm now questioning the value of xGoals for and against per 60. According to that data, if the Rangers offered to trade their line for the Avs line straight up (ignoring cap), then Colorado should gladly accept.

But I'm pretty sure no one in the real world would think that trade is a remotely good idea, including the guy who came up with those numbers. So if you can't use those numbers to predict the probable near-future, what good are they?

107 minutes of 5v5 hockey is very little in the grand scheme of things, seems like a woefully small sample too me and kind of a silly use of the stat. I know by comparison corsi needed something like 400-450 minutes to gain a respectable amount of predictive ability.

Edit: Only thing I take from that is "hey, want a fun table to look at, these combos are doing well early on"

 

[hairylikebear]

CF/CA and xGF/xGA both have weak correlations to GF/GA. I consider them nonsense stats that demonstrate nothing.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

CF/CA and xGF/xGA both have weak correlations to GF/GA. I consider them nonsense stats that demonstrate nothing.

Last thing I'll say on the issue, cause people hate these stat arguments. The crappy thing is that goals for/goals against has historically had an even weaker correlation to future GF/GA then score adjusted shot differentials, which is why people still use crude stats like the ones mentioned above.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

That.
Can't Rely on Benn, Hintz is a rush scorer mostly, with a highly unsustainable shooting %, and has already started to fall back to earth.

Seguin has been enigmatic, still the best offensively overall, but Miro has almost caught and passed him, which is a big indictment of how weak that top6 really is.

Anyway
Seguin is pacing for 60ish points
Heiskanen 55ish points
Radulov 46ish
Benn 40
Hintz 40ish
Pavelski 35ish
Faksa 32ish.


Part of the lack of scoring is Monty's ****-ass system, but that is our "top 6 forwards" and our #1 defenseman.
The only one pacing for good scoring levels is Miro relative to the role he plays.
This is a team that is starved for scoring help, obviously a lot of that is on the completely **** system, and you wonder how much another legitimate scoring threat will actually help because you can't get around the limitations of the coaches system that has very obvious shortcomings in the offensive zone and PP schemes
But a big upgrade up front, helps more than a marginal upgrade on Oleksiak/Sekera will.
That said, Nill is still somehow in charge of things, so i fully expect to see another #5-6 defenseman picked up, like last year, billed as an "elite" addition.
Or another Cogliano waste of space type move, that doesn't make the team better

I'll vote for top 6 as well, and agree with everything you said.

 

[LT]

Don't we have all that puck-tracking data now? Why don't we have legitimate possession stats yet?

 

[Timani]

Wtf lol

I'll give Monty this, he's a great sport on these questions.

And some meaty tactical nuggets as well.

 

[LT]

I dislike that they use percentages. Percentages don't mean shit in hockey. Differences do.

Literally everyone will take 18 goals scored and 12 allowed over 5.5 goals scored and 3 allowed, and yet 5.5/3 ranks higher than 18/12 in this metric.

That's a super simple change that would provide much better insight, IMO.