2019-20 Colorado Eagles (AHL) and Utah Grizzlies (ECHL)

[Pokecheque]

Last season Dries had 46% Corsi For, 43% expected goals for, was on the ice 9 goals for and 16 against. This season Dries had 39% Corsi For, 31% expected goals for and was on the ice for 2 goals against none for. That’s not a NHL player.

Part of the problem is there’s no path for the non top 40 picks. They sit on the bench, 4th line and the ECHL so that they are never close to having an opportunity. The waiver exemption comes up in 3 years regardless.

Which leads to...speaking of Beaudin he played 22 games for Ottawa which yeah I get it’s Ottawa and much easier to give an opportunity but I watched at least half those games he was in and he fit in as a 4C. He was a lot more physical and recorded 51 hits, he was actually good at faceoffs and when he played helped Ottawa during their best stretch of play during the year. Throwing away third year pros is how you don’t have anyone available for an opportunity. So again back to the main point, there’s a very fine line between finding use for these types of players and turning to outside solutions.

If they get Kaut and Timmins at the very least into regular NHL roles next season then yes I’d call that progress but it still needs to happen.

Again, what are we expecting from the 14th forward, and he was the 14th forward on an Avs team with serious depth issues? Who should’ve been there instead? I’m not expecting a possession monster or even a *good* player, just someone who doesn’t embarrass himself out there. And IMO his first stint with the team, he didn’t. He played his role fine, apart from a couple dumb penalties.

IIRC the next time he was called up, Bowers and Kaut were both hurt. I could be wrong though.

If anything I think the Avs might be a little guilty of leaning too much on their youth. They opted not to get a 2C in 2018 because they wanted to see if Jost could take the role. He didn’t. In 2019 they traded away Soderberg because they felt Compher could be a worthy 3C behind MacKinnon and Kadri. He wasn’t.

Lastly, and I’m just asking here, does any team have a set “path” for players to make their way up? Even Detroit, for all the applause they get for player development, have received criticism for overcooking their minor leaguers. I feel like they’re doing a fairly good job of opening up spots for youngsters the last couple years. They let Nemeth walk and traded away Barrie when Makar and Graves were deemed ready, and we’re expecting them to let Nieto go and let LOC take his place.

 

[Pokecheque]

I’ve always thought Bednar is pretty good at not leaning too hard on talentless grinders—about the only one I thought he used too much was Gork.

 

[Avs_19]

I just found out on tonight's broadcast that LOC's dad was teammates with Billington. That's not good scouting, that's good old nepotism!

 

[Pokecheque]

I just found out on tonight's broadcast that LOC's dad was teammates with Billington. That's not good scouting, that's good old nepotism!

Well, that’s basically what Pierre Lacroix did during the Avs’ heyday...

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I just found out on tonight's broadcast that LOC's dad was teammates with Billington. That's not good scouting, that's good old nepotism!

God damnit, back to square one with this team and its piss poor scouting

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Prospects absolutely should not be just given an opportunity. They have to earn those opportunities to play at a higher level and up until this year nobody on the Eagles had done anything to suggest they had earned an opportunity at a call up or minutes in a higher role.

 

[Pokecheque]

Y'all can scoff, but I'll use this as an example: One of Kyle Dubas's primary tenets as GM has been that he does not want to "test" prospects at the NHL level. They have to be ready in the organization's eyes before they're given a legit opportunity. Obviously circumstances, like injury, can force a team's hand, but it seems like sound logic.

 

[henchman21]

Y'all can scoff, but I'll use this as an example: One of Kyle Dubas's primary tenets as GM has been that he does not want to "test" prospects at the NHL level. They have to be ready in the organization's eyes before they're given a legit opportunity. Obviously circumstances, like injury, can force a team's hand, but it seems like sound logic.

That is the same way Tampa runs. If you're in the NHL as a young player you better be ready. If not they will call up others until you are. That why ABB hasn't been called up despite being arguably the best player in the AHL over the past two seasons.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Think about all the success Detroit had for over a decade, a tonne of that came from not rushing prospects, and letting them over marinate in the AHL until they were really truly 100% ready to go.


It's a pretty damn tried and true practice to be patient with your prospects, especially the guys who have real NHL upside but aren't elite prospects right away and need that extra time to develop.



And one can get into the debate that the Avs give up on prospects quickly and trade them too early before giving them a chance.... But history is a pretty strong indicator that in reality we just suck at drafting because those same kids have went on to do absolutely nothing in different organizations. See Kyle Wood, Nick Meloche, Chris Bigras, Connor Bleackley(UGH), Duncan Siemen.... And I'm sure we'll soon be adding Morrison, Beaudin, Henry, etc. etc. to this list.

 

[henchman21]

I think Morrison is going to end up a NHLer in Chicago, and he'd have pushed here too. I don't think he is a top 6 guy, but he's gonna get games.

I don't think the Avs have a terrible amount of patience with their prospects and they lean way too much to rushing than overcooking. I would say both are getting better with time, but they still tend to push players in faster than most and expect them to swim.

 

[McMetal]

I think there's merit to both arguments. On the one hand, you definitely don't want to rush a prospect to the NHL and then lose faith in then when they don't immediately impress because they're not ready. On the other hand, expecting a player to dominate in the AHL and force their way onto the NHL squad while you keep signing guys to block them is a problem, too.

Kaut is a good example. He hasn't exactly shone in the AHL, but given a chance in the NHL he popped in 2G1A in 9 games as a rookie with bottom six minutes, and showed off a good motor and (for a rookie winger) good defensive awareness. I wouldn't want to force him back down to the AHL when he's clearly got something to offer with the Avs. I would rather nurture that potential in the NHL than stuff him back down to the Eagles and wait for him to go PPG before giving him another shot.

I think it should be something you evaluate on a case by case basis. Development, we all keep saying, is not linear, and it isn't always a smooth progression from elite in juniors, to elite in the AHL, to the NHL. Setting up arbitrary benchmarks for what an NHL prospect needs to achieve at the AHL level isn't really helpful. It can certainly be one tool you use to figure out if a player needs a callup, but it shouldn't be your only one.

 

[Pokecheque]

Personally I don't mind them waiting for a prospect to be "ready," though that readiness is subjective. But I also don't advocate for "overmarinating" them either. You don't have to require every damned player to practically be beating down the door to the big club in order to promote them. The Wings were usually cautious in their approach, but that doesn't mean you have to play an overpaid grinder in favor of a better player who looks ready.

 

[henchman21]

I don't think anybody is saying that players like Kaut/Bowers/etc have to be elite top line AHL players before calling them up. Those types of players are not the ones you care about their scoring and how they impact that way. You want them having a strong, consistent positive impact in the game. Learning the technical parts about how to defend and attack in professional systems. If they score at a high rate, great! If the don't, it can be fine if they are learning the right things. Obviously it would be a positive if Kaut became a 60 point player, but that isn't what we are really looking for. So the other parts of the game are more important.

Now Newhook, if he went into the AHL and had trouble being more than a .5ppg player, we may have an issue. Typically top 6 NHL forwards who spend time in the AHL produce at a solid rate. If he couldn't produce offense down there, it would be a red flag. Not the end all be all, but a red flag nonetheless. Saying that, the Avs are likely to carve out a role for him in the NHL right away like they did Jost.

I would also be careful about small sample sizes. Many callups are playing their very best and working as hard as they can to stick and show to the coaches they belong. Sometimes that can lead to large mistakes (Greer), sometimes that can mean unsustainable production (look at Hirose for Detroit). Undoubtedly Kaut showed well in his call up, and I think enough to compete for a spot next year... but I wouldn't expect him to be a 30 point guy third line guy because he had a 9 games stint here. It could happen, but more likely that he's a 15-20 point guy who has some struggles and some successes while shuffling lines.

 

[Alex Jones]

Think about all the success Detroit had for over a decade, a tonne of that came from not rushing prospects, and letting them over marinate in the AHL until they were really truly 100% ready to go.


It's a pretty damn tried and true practice to be patient with your prospects, especially the guys who have real NHL upside but aren't elite prospects right away and need that extra time to develop.



And one can get into the debate that the Avs give up on prospects quickly and trade them too early before giving them a chance.... But history is a pretty strong indicator that in reality we just suck at drafting because those same kids have went on to do absolutely nothing in different organizations. See Kyle Wood, Nick Meloche, Chris Bigras, Connor Bleackley(UGH), Duncan Siemen.... And I'm sure we'll soon be adding Morrison, Beaudin, Henry, etc. etc. to this list.

Ehh, I've always been skeptical about claims of how strong the Red Wings player development was/is.

Two things. A lot of it was around their European scouting advantage in the 90's/early 2000's, which they no longer have. That advantage allowed them to find a ton of high end talent that nobody else was really looking at. Core pieces of their really strong teams weren't really guys that they kept in the system a long time.

I think Zetterburg played his 20 year old season with Detroit and came straight to the NHL from Europe.

Same for Datsyuk, although I think he came over at 21.

Kronwall was an obvious talent who got passed over due to his size. If I remember right he got plugged right into the lineup coming over from Europe and struggled. The lockout year let him play in the AHL and really improve/adjust his game to NA.

Franzen got put into the Red Wings lineup as a teenager to be a grinder. Considering his skating deficiencies and the fact that it took him a few years to find his niche as a scorer I actually think most teams would have pushed for a longer development curve for him.

Second, Detroit's player development for fringe players isn't really about the fact that they kept players in the minors longer, it's that they were more patient with prospects that other teams would have moved on from.

Guys like Jonathan Ericsson or Justin Abdelkader had very long development curves, and really didn't even find their spot until their late 20's. A lot of teams wouldn't have stayed patient and probably would have moved on from those guys.

The only guy that I can really think of that they kept in the minors longer than he needed it was Tatar.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I think there's merit to both arguments. On the one hand, you definitely don't want to rush a prospect to the NHL and then lose faith in then when they don't immediately impress because they're not ready. On the other hand, expecting a player to dominate in the AHL and force their way onto the NHL squad while you keep signing guys to block them is a problem, too.

Kaut is a good example. He hasn't exactly shone in the AHL, but given a chance in the NHL he popped in 2G1A in 9 games as a rookie with bottom six minutes, and showed off a good motor and (for a rookie winger) good defensive awareness. I wouldn't want to force him back down to the AHL when he's clearly got something to offer with the Avs. I would rather nurture that potential in the NHL than stuff him back down to the Eagles and wait for him to go PPG before giving him another shot.

I think it should be something you evaluate on a case by case basis. Development, we all keep saying, is not linear, and it isn't always a smooth progression from elite in juniors, to elite in the AHL, to the NHL. Setting up arbitrary benchmarks for what an NHL prospect needs to achieve at the AHL level isn't really helpful. It can certainly be one tool you use to figure out if a player needs a callup, but it shouldn't be your only one.

There’s a ton of missing context too. The Eagles give the vets the top 6 minutes, power play, special situation, empty net and in OT. It took them through at least half the year before they gave Bowers and Kaut some of those minutes and none to guys like Igor and Henry. That’s why AHL production is such a mirage. The ones who manage to get the perfect situation and pop 70 points like Petan and Benson don’t make the NHL following that anyway. The longer someone is in the AHL they tend to adapt to that style and get further from NHL type habits in order to achieve those numbers. Not that a player can have zero production or success at that level but people think it’s some linear path and it just isn’t. The AHL should be a place for finishing touches, nothing more.

Kaut’s numbers will never blow anyone away but nearly all his production is even strength primary as well. His impact in the NHL was the same. Maybe 3 points doesn’t knock anyone’s socks off but was the same type of production, two ES primary and a PP goal which all directly led to one goal wins.

There’s really no such thing as patience. The three year waiver exemption comes up just as quick regardless. It’s a rarity that a player gets waived and then sticks with the team that waived him. So if an org wants to have a policy to slow play a guy in his first year, no callup on the table, etc that’s fine but in years two and three they need to be equally as proactive to get them in a position for a callup and eventually sticking in year three.

 

[Foppa2118]

I think Morrison is going to end up a NHLer in Chicago, and he'd have pushed here too. I don't think he is a top 6 guy, but he's gonna get games.

I don't think the Avs have a terrible amount of patience with their prospects and they lean way too much to rushing than overcooking. I would say both are getting better with time, but they still tend to push players in faster than most and expect them to swim.

Haven't we put to rest this narrative of the Avs rushing their prospects by the way they handled Byram, Timmins, Bowers, and Kaut?

Jost remains the only example of them "rushing" a prospect.

 

[tigervixxxen]

They are at least fickle. If someone has been to three training camps without a major opportunity they’ve pretty much lost the enthusiasm for that player.

 

[Foppa2118]

They are at least fickle. If someone has been to three training camps without a major opportunity they’ve pretty much lost the enthusiasm for that player.

That's the case for lots of teams though after three training camps and not much progress.

 

[Richard88]

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[Metallo]

I just realised that we have the Megna brothers now.

Edit: Forget that, I was mislead by a website.
Jaycob Megna Stats, Profile, Bio, Analysis and More | Colorado Avalanche | The Sports Forecaster

 

[henchman21]

I just realised that we have the Megna brothers now.

Edit: Forget that, I was mislead by a website.
Jaycob Megna Stats, Profile, Bio, Analysis and More | Colorado Avalanche | The Sports Forecaster

Happens to the best of us. I’m beginning to think that the Nigerian Prince I help out monthly isn’t gonna pay me my million.

 

[Metallo]

Happens to the best of us. I’m beginning to think that the Nigerian Prince I help out monthly isn’t gonna pay me my million.

Hang in there and the payout will make it all worthwile. Just like waiting for Siemens to pan out.

PS. Megna brothers would have been cool however. (I didn’t even know there was another Megna before today.)

 

[Pokecheque]

I got burned by fake accounts twice the other day.

To be fair, one of them fooled me because Mirtle retweeted them.

 

[AnimalMother73]

Is Bibeau still with the Avs?