GDT: 2018 Trade Deadline Thread

kliq

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Dec 17, 2017
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I value exceptional hockey. I'd rather see one dynasty win 10 straight with breathtaking fluidity than 10 average teams win each of the next 10 Cups. Now that's an exaggeration to prove a point, but "parity" leads to a lot more bad hockey than good hockey.

With the skill level in the NHL being what it is today, I guess I dont see it as "bad hockey". But like I said, to each their own. I think you're in the minority here though.
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
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So are you against parity in general or against the lottery system? I thought this discussion was about the lottery system and its effects on tanking.
Both. Ditch the lottery, drop a handful of teams, and if I could really waive a magic wand, switch to Olympic sized rinks. Anything to encourage puck possession and skill over "being competitive" via slowing the game down to compensate for a lack of talent.

I'm perfectly willing to tank if I'm confident there's an elite guy at #1, because elite players are the ones that most make the game worth watching. And parity ends in the playoffs, anyway, so I'd rather just stop having it degrade the regular season.
 

Redder Winger

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May 4, 2017
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Don't you find that monotonous? Its just the same thing over and over and over again. I just find it boring to have the same teams win every single year.

What are we even talking about?
2008-2017
Pittsburgh 3 Cups
Chicago 3 Cups
LA 2 Cups
Detroit 1 Cup
Boston 1 Cup

1998-2007
Detroit 2 Cups
New Jersey 2 Cups
Anaheim 1 Cup
Tampa 1 Cup
Carolina 1 Cup
Colorado 1 Cup
Dallas 1 Cup
Lockout 1 Cup

1988-1997
Pittsburgh 2 Cups
Edmonton 2 Cups
Calgary 1 Cup
Detroit 1 Cup
Colorado 1 Cup
New Jersey 1 Cup
NY Rangers 1 Cup
Montreal 1 Cup

1978-1987
Edmonton 3 Cups
NY Islanders 4 Cups
Montreal 3 Cups

You have to go back 30-40 years to get a decade with so few winners of the Cup.

The fact is that talent has never been as plentiful as it is today as more Americans have picked up the sports and the pipeline from Europe continues to pour talent into the league.
Today's kids are faster and more skilled than ever before.

The problem is the coaching.
Until we find a coach capable of winning run-and-gun hockey, we're going to waste all that speed and skill on "low-event" hockey.
 

kliq

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Dec 17, 2017
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What are we even talking about?
2008-2017

Pittsburgh 3 Cups
Chicago 3 Cups
LA 2 Cups
Detroit 1 Cup
Boston 1 Cup

1998-2007
Detroit 2 Cups
New Jersey 2 Cups
Anaheim 1 Cup
Tampa 1 Cup
Carolina 1 Cup
Colorado 1 Cup
Dallas 1 Cup
Lockout 1 Cup

1988-1997
Pittsburgh 2 Cups
Edmonton 2 Cups
Calgary 1 Cup
Detroit 1 Cup
Colorado 1 Cup
New Jersey 1 Cup
NY Rangers 1 Cup
Montreal 1 Cup

1978-1987
Edmonton 3 Cups
NY Islanders 4 Cups
Montreal 3 Cups

You have to go back 30-40 years to get a decade with so few winners of the Cup.

The fact is that talent has never been as plentiful as it is today as more Americans have picked up the sports and the pipeline from Europe continues to pour talent into the league.
Today's kids are faster and more skilled than ever before.


The problem is the coaching.
Until we find a coach capable of winning run-and-gun hockey, we're going to waste all that speed and skill on "low-event" hockey.

I'm really not sure what you are challenging here? Do you think I'm lying about something? I can explain in more detail if you like.

I was talking about how the last 9 years for me has been boring as a hockey fan. Do you disagree?

For the record, I completely agree with the bold.

'78 - '87 - I was not watching hockey
1988-1997 - I was watching hockey and it was pretty spread out then. I really enjoyed it
1998-2007 - Wings were on top, I flat out said that I had a bias at that time
2008-2017 - Super boring era for me from 2010 on.
 

BinCookin

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Feb 15, 2012
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London, ON
You know what, I can do a new list. I'm interested to see what it says anyways. I need to go on points though, if I just list who I believe are the best 20, i'm letting bias effect the data.

Data in 2016

1/20 drafted in top 5
2/20 drafted between 6-10
3/20 drafted between 11-15
1/20 drafted between 16-30
13/20 drafted out of the first round/not drafted

Data in 2018

5/20 drafted in top 5
2/20 drafted between 6-10
1/20 drafted between 11-15
4/20 drafted between 16-30
8/20 drafted out of the first round/not drafted

1) John Klingberg – 131st overall
2) Brent Burns – 20th overall
3) John Carlson - 27th overall
3) Shayne Gostisbehere – 78th overall
5) P.K. Subban 43rd overall
6) Erik Karlsson -15th overall
6) Roman Josi – 38th overall
6) Victor Hedman - 2nd overall
9) Drew Doughty - 2nd overall
9) Ryan Suter – 7th overall
11) Seth Jones - 4th overall
12) Jake Gardiner - 17th overall
13) Alex Pietrangelo - 4th overall
13) Torey Krug - undrafted
13) Tyson Barrie – 64th overall
16) Dougie Hamilton - 9th overall
16) Keith Yandle – 105th overall
16) Kris Letang – 62nd overall
19) Morgan Rielly - 5th overall
20) Nick Leddy - 16th overall

Interesting actually. There has been a bit of a shift, more players in the top 20 (+4) are now drafted out of the the top 5, and a few less after the 1st round (-5).
The middle is basically the same.

I wonder if this is a reflection of teams more willing to take a D-man with a top 5 pick, or if its just fluke due to small sample size.

I wonder how this looks if you use AtOI as your deciding factor for "good" d-man instead of points.

How is Erik Johnson not on this list or Chara... thats why id like Atoi.
 

kliq

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Dec 17, 2017
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I wonder how this looks if you use AtOI as your deciding factor for "good" d-man instead of points.

How is Erik Johnson not on this list or Chara... thats why id like Atoi.

Where do you find those rankings? All I can find is TOI/G.
 

BinCookin

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Feb 15, 2012
6,160
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London, ON
Where do you find those rankings? All I can find is TOI/G.

table { }td { padding-top: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-left: 1px; color: black; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; vertical-align: bottom; border: medium none; white-space: nowrap; }
1Ryan Suter
2Drew Doughty
3Rasmus Ristolainen
4Erik Karlsson
5Victor Hedman
6Erik Johnson
7Alex Pietrangelo
8Shea Weber
9John Carlson
10Kris Letang
11Brent Burns
12Seth Jones
13Jared Spurgeon
14Roman Josi
15Keith Yandle
16Mark Giordano
17Cam Fowler
18Ivan Provorov
19Duncan Keith
20P.K. Subban
21Oliver Ekman-Larsson
22T.J. Brodie
23Mattias Ekholm
24Ryan McDonagh
25Marco Scandella
26Dustin Byfuglien
27Aaron Ekblad
28Jeff Petry
29Alexander Edler
30John Klingberg
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

top 30 Atoi leaders
 

kliq

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Dec 17, 2017
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Ok, I'll do the same. Im only going to use top 20 though just to keep it consistent.
 

kliq

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Dec 17, 2017
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Data in 2016 Based on top 20 Points

1/20 drafted in top 5
2/20 drafted between 6-10
3/20 drafted between 11-15
1/20 drafted between 16-30
13/20 drafted out of the first round/not drafted

Data in 2018 Based on top 20 Points

5/20 drafted in top 5
3/20 drafted between 6-10
2/20 drafted between 11-15
2/20 drafted between 16-30
8/20 drafted out of the first round/not drafted

Data in 2018 Based on top ATOI provided above

5/20 drafted in top 5
2/20 drafted between 6-10
1/20 drafted between 11-15
4/20 drafted between 16-30
8/20 drafted out of the first round/not drafted

1 Ryan Suter - 7th overall
2 Drew Doughty - 2nd overall
3 Rasmus Ristolainen - 8th overall
4 Erik Karlsson -15th overall
5 Victor Hedman - 2nd overall
6 Erik Johnson - 1st overall
7 Alex Pietrangelo - 4th overall
8 Shea Weber – 49th overall
9 John Carlson - 27th overall
10 Kris Letang – 62nd overall
11 Brent Burns - 20th overall
12 Seth Jones - 4th overall
13 Jared Spurgeon - 156th overall
14 Roman Josi – 38th overall
15 Keith Yandle – 105th overall
16 Mark Giordano - undrafted
17 Cam Fowler - 12th overall
18 Ivan Provorov - 7th overall
19 Duncan Keith – 54th overall
20 P.K. Subban - 43rd overall

Its actually quite similar.
 
Jul 30, 2005
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I mean, what is location, really
Something tells me you're not being entirely honest here, but whatever.
I'm being perfectly honest. The difference is that I don't think selling all your assets for draft picks is tanking. Tanking is a very specific subset of rebuilding that involves performing actions that have no net hockey value in order to cause your own team to lose.
 
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Pavels Dog

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Feb 18, 2013
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Data in 2016 Based on top 20 Points

1/20 drafted in top 5
2/20 drafted between 6-10
3/20 drafted between 11-15
1/20 drafted between 16-30
13/20 drafted out of the first round/not drafted

Data in 2018 Based on top 20 Points

5/20 drafted in top 5
3/20 drafted between 6-10
2/20 drafted between 11-15
2/20 drafted between 16-30
8/20 drafted out of the first round/not drafted

Data in 2018 Based on top ATOI provided above

5/20 drafted in top 5
2/20 drafted between 6-10
1/20 drafted between 11-15
4/20 drafted between 16-30
8/20 drafted out of the first round/not drafted

1 Ryan Suter - 7th overall
2 Drew Doughty - 2nd overall
3 Rasmus Ristolainen - 8th overall
4 Erik Karlsson -15th overall
5 Victor Hedman - 2nd overall
6 Erik Johnson - 1st overall
7 Alex Pietrangelo - 4th overall
8 Shea Weber – 49th overall
9 John Carlson - 27th overall
10 Kris Letang – 62nd overall
11 Brent Burns - 20th overall
12 Seth Jones - 4th overall
13 Jared Spurgeon - 156th overall
14 Roman Josi – 38th overall
15 Keith Yandle – 105th overall
16 Mark Giordano - undrafted
17 Cam Fowler - 12th overall
18 Ivan Provorov - 7th overall
19 Duncan Keith – 54th overall
20 P.K. Subban - 43rd overall

Its actually quite similar.
Essentially shows that multiple picks can make up for lack of top 5 picks.

Nashville 2008 is a good example. Missed Karlsson twice in the top 15, landed Josi in the 2nd round. Dumb luck, brought on by having enough picks.

It’s possible we already have a gem in the pipeline but 6-7 picks in the top 90 is an awesome position for finding talent this upcoming draft.
 
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Go Wings

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Sep 26, 2009
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You know what, I can do a new list. I'm interested to see what it says anyways. I need to go on points though, if I just list who I believe are the best 20, i'm letting bias effect the data.

Data in 2016

1/20 drafted in top 5
2/20 drafted between 6-10
3/20 drafted between 11-15
1/20 drafted between 16-30
13/20 drafted out of the first round/not drafted

Data in 2018

5/20 drafted in top 5
2/20 drafted between 6-10
1/20 drafted between 11-15
4/20 drafted between 16-30
8/20 drafted out of the first round/not drafted

1) John Klingberg – 131st overall
2) Brent Burns – 20th overall
3) John Carlson - 27th overall
3) Shayne Gostisbehere – 78th overall
5) P.K. Subban 43rd overall
6) Erik Karlsson -15th overall
6) Roman Josi – 38th overall
6) Victor Hedman - 2nd overall
9) Drew Doughty - 2nd overall
9) Ryan Suter – 7th overall
11) Seth Jones - 4th overall
12) Jake Gardiner - 17th overall
13) Alex Pietrangelo - 4th overall
13) Torey Krug - undrafted
13) Tyson Barrie – 64th overall
16) Dougie Hamilton - 9th overall
16) Keith Yandle – 105th overall
16) Kris Letang – 62nd overall
19) Morgan Rielly - 5th overall
20) Nick Leddy - 16th overall

Interesting actually. There has been a bit of a shift, more players in the top 20 (+4) are now drafted out of the the top 5, and a few less after the 1st round (-5).
The middle is basically the same.

I wonder if this is a reflection of teams more willing to take a D-man with a top 5 pick, or if its just fluke due to small sample size.

That is what I thought. For the most part the top defensemen in the league these days are being drafted in the first round. Now there will always be guys found after the first round.

Think last years draft, guys like Makar and Brannstrom drafted in the first round will likely be on that list in a few years.
 
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Winger98

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Something else about Kliq's 2018 list. 4/8 of drafted outside of the first round were drafted in the second. It's also comparing 30 spots in the draft to ~150 spots, over a number of years. If we're looking at D and hoping to get a good one, more than likely it's going to be within the first 60 picks of the draft.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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I know it can be done. But we've had how many 2nd-7th rounders and not done it? Clearly evaluating defenseman is not our strong suit. Use a high pick on it. Take luck out of the equation as much as possible.

Look at these kids that recently went in the top 10. Heiskanen and Makar from last year look great. Then you have Werenski, Hamilton, Provorov, Sergachev, Trouba, Hanifin, Dumba. Yeah I'll take any of them.
 
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jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
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I know it can be done. But we've had how many 2nd-7th rounders and not done it? Clearly evaluating defenseman is not our strong suit. Use a high pick on it. Take luck out of the equation as much as possible.

Look at these kids that recently went in the top 10. Heiskanen and Makar from last year look great. Then you have Werenski, Hamilton, Provorov, Sergachev, Trouba, Hanifin, Dumba. Yeah I'll take any of them.
Completely agree. It's not only probability in a vacuum, it's also factoring in the track record of this franchise. Even if both Cholo and Hronek pan out into top 4 guys - which certainly isn't a given yet - there's a long way to go before defense is a strength for this team, so pony up with the resources to go after some quality incoming talent.
 

Pavels Dog

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I know it can be done. But we've had how many 2nd-7th rounders and not done it?
Not many tbh. I think realistically if you want a #1D it’s going to come from the first ~60 picks. How often the last 20+ years have we had more than two top 60 picks? How often more than 1 in the top 40? More than 1 in the first round?

Like I said, multiple picks allow you to make bad mistakes and still come out looking great. No one talks about Nashville making two garbage picks instead of Erik Karlsson. Are they good or bad at evaluating d-men?

Should we use our 1st rounder on a d-man? More than likely yes (Svech or Zadina might be the exceptions).
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
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Not many tbh. I think realistically if you want a #1D it’s going to come from the first ~60 picks. How often the last 20+ years have we had more than two top 60 picks? How often more than 1 in the top 40? More than 1 in the first round?

In a single draft? No. But we had plenty them in total over those 15-20 years.
 
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kliq

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Dec 17, 2017
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Something else about Kliq's 2018 list. 4/8 of drafted outside of the first round were drafted in the second. It's also comparing 30 spots in the draft to ~150 spots, over a number of years. If we're looking at D and hoping to get a good one, more than likely it's going to be within the first 60 picks of the draft.

The reason for that is when I first made the list it was because someone argued that no top D-men are found outside of the 1st round. So I broke it down to show a detailed breakdown of the first round, and then anything outside of the first round.
 

waltdetroit

Registered User
Jul 20, 2010
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GMGM's deadline press conference: Thoughts on the attractive aspect of Tatar and knowing that he was a guy they wanted to target…

"I don’t know how many conversations I’ve had with (Detroit GM) Ken Holland, there’s no doubt it’s in the double digits, but we’ve talked a lot. We’ve talked as far back as a month ago and we’ve continued to be consistent and continue talking. We’ve had a lot of correspondence today with a lot of talking and a lot of texting. He was a guy we talked to based on where the prices would be the right guy for us. Most of the things you do in this business you like to do is because you base your decisions on data and they’re data-driven. At the trading deadline, things are market-driven. This is the price that he was comfortable with or he wasn’t going to trade him. This was the price that we are comfortable to get him now. He could’ve held onto him through the summer but we wanted him now. "

entire conference:
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Sheng-Peng/George-McPhees-Trade-Deadline-Conference-Call/244/91402
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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Cleveland
The reason for that is when I first made the list it was because someone argued that no top D-men are found outside of the 1st round. So I broke it down to show a detailed breakdown of the first round, and then anything outside of the first round.

I'm not criticizing, just wanted to make sure it was noticed by folks. It's easy to look at the list and see the divide without really appreciating the number of picks involved between the two sets.
 
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Redder Winger

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May 4, 2017
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I'm really not sure what you are challenging here? Do you think I'm lying about something? I can explain in more detail if you like.
I was talking about how the last 9 years for me has been boring as a hockey fan. Do you disagree?

For the record, I completely agree with the bold.

'78 - '87 - I was not watching hockey
1988-1997 - I was watching hockey and it was pretty spread out then. I really enjoyed it
1998-2007 - Wings were on top, I flat out said that I had a bias at that time
2008-2017 - Super boring era for me from 2010 on.

I'm saying parity doesn't really exist.
Sure, teams stick around the NHL playoff hunt for longer than they used - but that's more a function of the NHL's 3-point games, and the number of coaches hawking "low-event" hockey than the salary cap.

If you want a better idea of where these teams really are, check out their ROW stats. (Even better, regulation stats - but I can't easily find those)


Here's the other thing.
People point to 2002 as the reason why the salary cap was needed. Because Detroit traded for Hasek, signed Hull and signed Robitaille.
Hasek - 36
Hull - 37
Robitaille - 35

Ilitch's money allowed him to keep his players - that's huge.
It also allowed us to trade for other teams' expensive old players (Chelios - 39 in 01-02)

To a large degree, Holland was using his salary cap to spend on old guys, well past their prime.
 

Pavels Dog

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Feb 18, 2013
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In a single draft? No. But we had plenty them in total over those 15-20 years.
Yeah I don’t think that’s the same at all tbh. Way, way less margin of error. Also a 2nd isn’t = to a 2nd. Drafting 30-35 or 50-60 is a big difference. Drafting 20th and 50th is way different than drafting 10th, 30th, 35th, 40th and 50th.
 

Red Stanley

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Apr 25, 2015
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I'm being perfectly honest. The difference is that I don't think selling all your assets for draft picks is tanking. Tanking is a very specific subset of rebuilding that involves performing actions that have no net hockey value in order to cause your own team to lose.

Except that's the very definition of tanking - moving a bunch of productive roster players and not replacing their production. You and many others on here want teams to sell their assets and stay as bad as possible until such a time that a bonafide superstar or two are drafted. Any improvements in the meanwhile are to be frowned upon, because they worsen draft position. The added random luck of the lottery interferes with that master plan and that's why you're against it. I hope they keep adjusting the lottery in favor of bubble teams to prevent this long-term rebuilding strategy from becoming the norm. As for the perennial failures who just can't seem to get it together, their problem isn't a lack of high draft picks.
 

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