Post-Game Talk: 2018 Trade Deadline - How Happy Are You?

[WTFMAN99]

They would jump at Doughty but you can't empty the farm. Now if you have an abundance of prospects (as the Lightning appear to have) you can overpay. If not, I would wait to sign one of the big fish 2019 UFA dmen , in which case it only costs me cap space.

Okay but what happens if none of that works out?

Someone trades for Karlsson and re-signs him (I see it happening)

Doughty re-signs with Kings or if he becomes available, we gotta win that bidding war no matter what, even if we have to trade ahead of time, as long as an extension is agreed upon prior then the assets going out are fine.

OEL - LHD so not a perfect fit. What reason does he have to come here over anywhere else? We could lose him too.

If a top end guy becomes available, we have to get him and can't keep saying "oh we'll get the next good guy available" or hope our own guys become as good as Doughty. I'd rather just make sure I got Doughty in this very hypothetical scenario.

 

[Macallan18]

Because he can actually play C position responsibally. Bozak has had flaws with every winger he has played with and his line has always had negative impact on game regardless the point production. You can check his stats way back with Kessel and it won't look any better. Yes he is younger and that's why he will be looking for 3-4 years long deal at least. Plek is getting older and you can sign him to a Hainsey type of low cost deal. I still think he will be a better option than Bozak even though some might think he is older now.

Agree. And the first impact of getting older is his offensive output will decrease. But if his role is a defensively responsible 4 th line centre because we are rolling Matthews, Nylander and Kadri, then yeah, he is a way better signing than Bozie.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Okay but what happens if none of that works out?

Someone trades for Karlsson and re-signs him (I see it happening)

Doughty re-signs with Kings or if he becomes available, we gotta win that bidding war no matter what, even if we have to trade ahead of time, as long as an extension is agreed upon prior then the assets going out are fine.

OEL - LHD so not a perfect fit. What reason does he have to come here over anywhere else? We could lose him too.

If a top end guy becomes available, we have to get him and can't keep saying "oh we'll get the next good guy available" or hope our own guys become as good as Doughty. I'd rather just make sure I got Doughty in this very hypothetical scenario.

We can't get carried away and overpay. No matter how good Doughty is (and yes, he is amazing and would be perfect for us) we still need a team around him. Edmonton is a perfect example of that IMO.

 

[ToneDog]

It could be or they just realized that the sum of the parts haven't been generating the desired effect.
We need to look out for this as well.
Every action has a consequence.
So we could move draft picks for guys like Boyle/Plekanec, let UFAs like JVR/Bozak walk and discover in a few years that we are still missing the same pieces and achieve the same ending like the Blues. 1st/2nd round exits. In which case then you have to acquire more depth in the organization. This is always a possibility of the actions we are taking. Chicago needs to acquire more internal depth. Washington stuck at the 2nd round. Same with the Blues. Pittsburgh 7 years before they developed the right depth.

We are talking about a late 1st (JVR), a couple of late seconds (TyBo, Pleks) and late 3rd (Leo). If you are lucky you hit on one, maybe two of those picks. I don't think that is worth stripping this team before the playoffs. There has to be a balance between asset management and winning. The stronger the Cup contender the more you lean to winning. Vegas' plan going into the season was to dump their UFAs at the TDL for futures. We saw them do the opposite on Monday because they think they have a shot and want to give themselves the best chance to win. Leafs feel the same way.

 

[Macallan18]

Okay but what happens if none of that works out?

Someone trades for Karlsson and re-signs him (I see it happening)

Doughty re-signs with Kings or if he becomes available, we gotta win that bidding war no matter what, even if we have to trade ahead of time, as long as an extension is agreed upon prior then the assets going out are fine.

OEL - LHD so not a perfect fit. What reason does he have to come here over anywhere else? We could lose him too.

If a top end guy becomes available, we have to get him and can't keep saying "oh we'll get the next good guy available" or hope our own guys become as good as Doughty. I'd rather just make sure I got Doughty in this very hypothetical scenario.

I still would want to be careful. For instance, in the off season we could have a run at Tanev for a much more reasonable price then Karlsson. Who might actually fit our needs better.
And without giving up. Liljegren.

 

[ToneDog]

Okay but what happens if none of that works out?

Someone trades for Karlsson and re-signs him (I see it happening)

Doughty re-signs with Kings or if he becomes available, we gotta win that bidding war no matter what, even if we have to trade ahead of time, as long as an extension is agreed upon prior then the assets going out are fine.

OEL - LHD so not a perfect fit. What reason does he have to come here over anywhere else? We could lose him too.

If a top end guy becomes available, we have to get him and can't keep saying "oh we'll get the next good guy available" or hope our own guys become as good as Doughty. I'd rather just make sure I got Doughty in this very hypothetical scenario.

Two top end guys were available on Monday but Lou was not willing to pay top price for either.

 

[WTFMAN99]

This is a lot to respond to...

We can't get carried away and overpay. No matter how good Doughty is (and yes, he is amazing and would be perfect for us) we still need a team around him. Edmonton is a perfect example of that IMO.

We are talking about a late 1st (JVR), a couple of late seconds (TyBo, Pleks) and late 3rd (Leo). If you are lucky you hit on one, maybe two of those picks. I don't think that is worth stripping this team before the playoffs. There has to be a balance between asset management and winning. The stronger the Cup contender the more you lean to winning. Vegas' plan going into the season was to dump their UFAs at the TDL for futures. We saw them do the opposite on Monday because they think they have a shot and want to give themselves the best chance to win. Leafs feel the same way.

I still would want to be careful. For instance, in the off season we could have a run at Tanev for a much more reasonable price then Karlsson. Who might actually fit our needs better.
And without giving up. Liljegren.

Two top end guys were available on Monday but Lou was not willing to pay top price for either.

I'm going to try to answer everyone's concerns in 1 shot.

Okay

Tanev - I agree the cap hit makes more sense and we can add Tavares potentially. Downside? Durability for sure. He provides no offense. He's going to cost a 1st + prospects anyway. I'd rather give up more for a guy who's healthy, can make a contribution at both ends and is one of the best at his position. The moment we drafted Matthews is when Tavares was looked at as a luxury whereas Doughty would be a need.

There is also a huge difference between even McDonagh and Doughty. Situationally, we'd get an extension with Doughty. McDonagh's health has been somewhat questionable, he's a left shot defense and he has 1.5 years left on his deal, no contractual safety net. That is why Lou didn't pay up on Monday.

We definitely need to surround our good players with great depth but star players and then add the depth. I think we'll be able to acquire depth.

We saw big pieces go for McDonagh so assume we have to do the same with Doughty, now if we can do it without disrupting the big 3, that is the dream.

2 1sts (2018, 2019), Liljegren, Brown, 1 of Sparks/Pickard, Martin (cap) maybe something else for Doughty (extension), Clifford and maybe a later pick.

We can still fit in a guy on a 1 year contract like Nash, Kovalchuk or even Thornton

Assume the trade above goes through

Sign Thornton for 1 year 5M, add more if need be, there is room.
Sign Beagle 1 year for 1.9M
Sign Nash or Kovalchuk for 1 year at 6M
Trade Josh Leivo to Edmonton for a 3rd in the off-season (they have 3)

There is 2.9M in cap space with this roster (I went to an 80M cap)

After that you have some big money coming off the books to accomodate the big 3 and Doughty's extension, you'd just need to find a 3-4 centre mainly

 

[ShaneFalco]

They should have traded Leivo. He's not going to play under Babcock
Martin too - if there were takers

 

[thewave]

They should have traded Leivo. He's not going to play under Babcock
Martin too - if there were takers

Probably no takers and they want the depth for injury. Not getting a good D was the big mistake.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Probably no takers and they want the depth for injury. Not getting a good D was the big mistake.

Could very well be. We;ll see in the playiffs. Holl is hurt right now apparently so they can't even give him a shot

 

[GoonieFace]

They still have lots of options come the offseason. Lots of 1st rd picks changed hands at the deadline, so that plays into the Leafs hands if they were to acquire someone. McDonagh really didn't fit their needs, and there was really noone else available that would be worth acquiring.

I for one am refreshed that they have stated patient, they will make the right move when the time comes. We should have nothing but faith in this management group, they have turned this franchise around.

 

[Mess]

If the Leafs drop early in the playoffs the answer to this question will be obvious.

Anyone you would ask suggested the Leafs needed a upgrade on defense to solidify their Cup chances and that remains to be seen if patience and standing pat was the right or wrong move for the Leafs.

To me it seems like they passed up a great opportunity to potentially go deep by not addressing and known area of concern, in a season where they were situated based on depth and rookie ELC contracts to make a serious run.. When JVR, Bozak, Komarov, Plekanec etc all walk away and Marlies fill those spots as Leafs 3 amigos get big raises may see the Leafs weakened next year in terms of forward depth.

The Leafs window was wide open this year.

 

[Liminality]

If the Leafs drop early in the playoffs the answer to this question will be obvious.

Anyone you would ask suggested the Leafs needed a upgrade on defense to solidify their Cup chances and that remains to be seen if patience and standing pat was the right or wrong move for the Leafs.

To me it seems like they passed up a great opportunity to potentially go deep by not addressing and known area of concern, in a season where they were situated based on depth and rookie ELC contracts to make a serious run.. When JVR, Bozak, Komarov, Plekanec etc all walk away and Marlies fill those spots as Leafs 3 amigos get big raises may see the Leafs weakened next year in terms of forward depth.

The Leafs window was wide open this year.

And will continue to be for the next 8 years thanks to these young kids on the team.

 

[Mess]

And will continue to be for the next 8 years thanks to these young kids on the team.

When Matthews in making +$10 mil and Leafs have to let players like JVR and Bozak and Komarov all walk just to balance the team salary cap of trying to cover the big raises then Leafs depth will be tested.

Letting a 30+ goal scorer like JVR walk for free knowing you need his cap $$ to pay for raises in the future, weakens the offense and thus while the window is still open the team competitiveness decreases as a result.

When the 3 Amigo's are taking up $24 mil cap instead on <$3 mil at present that lost $21 mil cap costs the Leafs a lot of in terms of team strength... This is not about player age of the youngsters its about what kind of team will the Leafs be able to ice around them.

 

[Liminality]

When Matthews in making +$10 mil and Leafs have to let players like JVR and Bozak and Komarov all walk just to balance the team salary cap of trying to cover the big raises then Leafs depth will be tested.

Letting a 30+ goal scorer like JVR walk for free knowing you need his cap $$ to pay for raises in the future, weakens the offense and thus while the window is still open the team competitiveness decreases as a result.

When the Amigo's are taking up $24 mil cap instead on lost $21 mil cap costs the Leafs a lot of in terms of team strength... This is not about player age of the youngsters its about what kind of team will the Leafs be able to ice around them.

They'll be fine. Other teams have had to pay their elite youngsters and have won cups right after.
They've got to be smarter about filling out the rest of the roster but I'd trust the management has seen this happening and already has plans for it.

Yes we have a window now with the ELC's but we definitely have a window even when the big trio get their contracts. Yes they'll be making 10-11m, 7-8m, etc but they're also getting better every year. All three of them have the potential to be PPG players, big impact players.

Even with all these contracts we'd still be around 20m in cap space in 2019/20 when all the young guys would be on their new contracts

Hyman 2.25m-Matthews 11m-Marner 7.5m
Marleau 6.25m-Nylander 7.5m-Kapanen 3m
__________-Kadri 4.5m-Brown 2.1m
__________-________-________

Rielly 5m-Zaitsev 4.5m
Dermott .863m

Andersen 5m

You're looking to fill in mostly the defense but you could spend big money on a couple of players while filling in internally.

 

[Mugzy97]

Two top end guys were available on Monday but Lou was not willing to pay top price for either.

I feel like Lou would rather build his team in the offseason and only tweak it at the deadline where costs get higher. This theory would save people from making knee jerk moves and regretting them later. How often does the team who makes the big deadline acquisition actually win the cup?

 

[Morbo]

They may well regret not making the McDonagh trade, as you can forget about Karlsson or Doughty -- neither is happening for the Leafs. We had a once in a blue moon chance Monday to add a #1 defenceman for a reasonable cost and we didn't take it, instead letting a rival team who already had an elite #1 get him for a very doable price.

We shall see to what degree this was a wise course of action.

I don't know why people keep bringing them up, either. Doughty isn't interested in coming here and has said so on more than one occasion. Karlsson will not be traded to the Leafs by Ottawa, for reasons which hopefully I don't need to explain.

 

[SprDaVE]

I feel like Lou would rather build his team in the offseason and only tweak it at the deadline where costs get higher. This theory would save people from making knee jerk moves and regretting them later. How often does the team who makes the big deadline acquisition actually win the cup?

He's never been much of a buyer at the trade deadline. The biggest trade he ever made in the cap era (by far) at the deadline was to get Kovalchuk, and that turned out to be a very easy win for the Devils at the time and in hindsight.

Outside of the Kovalchuk trade, they've all been Plekanec/Boyle type additions for 2nd round picks and/or depth prospects.

 

[Morbo]

I feel like Lou would rather build his team in the offseason and only tweak it at the deadline where costs get higher. This theory would save people from making knee jerk moves and regretting them later. How often does the team who makes the big deadline acquisition actually win the cup?

What is going to change during the summer though?

They needed a defenceman last offseason too, and the best they could do was sign a stopgap in Hainsey.

The only difference is now we have an emergent Dermott, and Liljegren having a good year in the A. But if he wasn't willing to trade those guys Monday, why would he do it in the summer?

 

[SprDaVE]

What is going to change during the summer though?

They needed a defenceman last offseason too, and the best they could do was sign a stopgap in Hainsey.

The only difference is now we have an emergent Dermott, and Liljegren having a good year in the A. But if he wasn't willing to trade those guys Monday, why would he do it in the summer?

Inactivity doesn't mean they didn't try. Of course their job is to get and give results so trying doesn't matter but I do think they were looking at plenty of options.

We know they tried for Hamonic. We know they were going after McDonagh.

I'm not sure if things will change in the off-season but they will likely do the same and offer the same kind of pieces they were offering for Hamonic, McDonagh, etc. Maybe they will give up Liljegren for the right player. Maybe they won't have to.

With OEL, Doughty and Karlsson very close to UFA and this summer there will be Carlson, De Haan and some interesting RFAs looking for big paydays... I think it could be a little different than last summer.

 

[Mess]

They'll be fine. Other teams have had to pay their elite youngsters and have won cups right after.
They've got to be smarter about filling out the rest of the roster but I'd trust the management has seen this happening and already has plans for it.

Yes we have a window now with the ELC's but we definitely have a window even when the big trio get their contracts. Yes they'll be making 10-11m, 7-8m, etc but they're also getting better every year. All three of them have the potential to be PPG players, big impact players.

Even with all these contracts we'd still be around 20m in cap space in 2019/20 when all the young guys would be on their new contracts

Hyman 2.25m-Matthews 11m-Marner 7.5m
Marleau 6.25m-Nylander 7.5m-Kapanen 3m
__________-Kadri 4.5m-Brown 2.1m
__________-________-________

Rielly 5m-Zaitsev 4.5m
Dermott .863m

Andersen 5m

You're looking to fill in mostly the defense but you could spend big money on a couple of players while filling in internally.

Look at this way.

Today
Matthews ($925k) + JVR ($4.25 mil) + Bozak ($4.2 mil) + Komarov ($3 mil) = ~ $12.5 mil

After
Matthews ($10 mil) + Bracco (>$1 mil) IN + (JVR out) + Gauthier (>$1 mil) IN + (Bozak out) + Grundstrom (>$1 mil) IN (Komarov OUT) = $12.5 mil

Are the Leafs window of competitiveness greater with Matthews+JVR+Bozak+Komarov or with Matthews @ $10 + Marlie + Marlie + Marlie for the same cap hit?

Ditto
Nylander $900k to $ 6 mil cap raise = Marleau OUT and Marlie IN ..

 

[RedRenegade]

Aren't NHL entry-level contracts 3 years? Matthews is only in year 2 right now. I don't understand why he's making 10 mil next year in your calculations.

 

[Liminality]

Look at this way.

Today
Matthews ($925k) + JVR ($4.25 mil) + Bozak ($4.2 mil) + Komarov ($3 mil) = ~ $12.5 mil

After
Matthews ($10 mil) + Bracco (>$1 mil) IN + (JVR out) + Gauthier (>$1 mil) IN + (Bozak out) + Grundstrom (>$1 mil) IN (Komarov OUT) = $12.5 mil

Are the Leafs window of competitiveness greater with Matthews+JVR+Bozak+Komarov or with Matthews @ $10 + Marlie + Marlie + Marlie for the same cap hit?

Ditto
Nylander $900k to $ 6 mil cap raise = Marleau OUT and Marlie IN ..

You're forgetting that they'll be getting better in 3 years, when all their new contracts are going to be active. They'll also have enough cap space to fill in replacements.
They could grab a big defender that you've always wanted!

 

[Mugzy97]

What is going to change during the summer though?

They needed a defenceman last offseason too, and the best they could do was sign a stopgap in Hainsey.

The only difference is now we have an emergent Dermott, and Liljegren having a good year in the A. But if he wasn't willing to trade those guys Monday, why would he do it in the summer?

GM's place less value on their assets in the summer compared to the deadline and different players become available in different situations. Why make a trade or signing last summer if it didn't make sense for the team? It has to make sense for now and the future to pull the trigger. Hainsey was obviously calculated to be a good veteran stop gap until someone who makes sense becomes available.

 

[Morbo]

GM's place less value on their assets in the summer compared to the deadline

no they don't. in fact for many selling GMs, the rationale is precisely the opposite -- let's wait till the offseason/draft when there are more suitors and we'll get better value for our asset. A major reason being the salary cap, obviously.

and different players become available in different situations. Why make a trade or signing last summer if it didn't make sense for the team? It has to make sense for now and the future to pull the trigger.

what?

of course it made sense for the team -- you admitted yourself that a Hamonic trade was almost made. it didn't fall through because it didn't make sense suddenly for whatever reason. It fell through because the Flames made a better offer.