2018 THN Future Watch

Brodeur

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Feb 27, 2002
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I was also surprised that Niku was not included in their top 10. But at least in past years, I grown accustomed not to be surprised if somebody gets omitted for whatever reason. Since the rankings get compiled right after the WJC in January, it is possible that some of the contributing scouts simply haven't seen Niku in the AHL yet. Like a lot of prospect rankings, I'm sure that could change in the next year.

In years past, it almost seemed like several teams would include a few AHL veterans over AHL rookies who we all figured were better long term projects. Almost like a virtual pat on the back for the years of service.

An Islanders beat writer mentioned how the team didn't include Kevin Poulin and Casey Cizikas among their top 10 on purpose because they weren't signed and possibly were going to re-enter the draft. The team didn't want to list them and possibly lose them a few months later. But internally the team had them as top 10 prospects in those years. So there can be weird PR reasons that influence it.

I get that most people use this issue to pump the tires of their own guys. Over the years, I've learned to just use this issue as a reference rather than any ironclad indication of how things are going to pan out. Heck, THN includes the 2008 and 2013 lists if only to chuckle at how badly some of those rankings are. In past years, I remember people being up in arms about Zac Dalpe and Jon Blum not being ranked higher after big rookie years in the AHL, or Johan Larsson putting up great numbers as a teenager in the SEL.
 

Fantomas

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Aug 7, 2012
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"With the assistance of scouts, we identify the 10 in each organization with the best long term upside five-plus years down the road. Then with a master list of 310 A-listers, we ask our panel of scouts - one from each team is invited - to rank their top 60. Their opinions are distilled in a spreadsheet, and out comes our top 100 list of blue-chip NHL prospects."

We then throw the opinions of the scouts into a trashbin and ask a group of talentless writers to pen player profiles from scratch.
 

67Cup

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Sep 16, 2005
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Probably most of us could find questionable opinions and outright errors in the writeups about our teams. Here’s one I noticed for the Leafs: “(Joseph Woll’s) save percentage for Boston College has nosedived.” In fact, it has risen slightly from last year from .913 to .915. I don’t know exactly what it was on the date of final editing but it certainly did not “nosedive.”
 

Brodeur

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Feb 27, 2002
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We then throw the opinions of the scouts into a trashbin and ask a group of talentless writers to pen player profiles from scratch.

Pretty much.

Probably most of us could find questionable opinions and outright errors in the writeups about our teams. Here’s one I noticed for the Leafs: “(Joseph Woll’s) save percentage for Boston College has nosedived.” In fact, it has risen slightly from last year from .913 to .915. I don’t know exactly what it was on the date of final editing but it certainly did not “nosedive.”

BC has a nice game by game for each players, although it took me a second to realize it tracked save percentage: Joseph Woll - 2017-18 Men's Hockey Roster - Boston College

They mention how they poll the scouts right after the WJC in January, so I don't know if that's around the same time they start writing things up. Looks like THN guys do the writeups now; In the old days they had local beat writers do it. Woll's save percentage did dip as low as .903 in early February before a string of good games has pushed him back up to .916.

But yeah, I don't disagree that some of those writeups leave a lot to be desired.
 

lawrence

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May 19, 2012
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It will sell everywhere just as well as it does any year. This is the premiere, most anticipated issue of The Hockey News (Really, the only besides the yearbook, worth picking up in the digital age). Fans are going to have to suck it up.

and exactly how well did it sell in general?
 

Chainshot

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Feb 28, 2002
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I think Mittelstadt is ranked about 10-15 spots too high

Who do you have above him? I'd put Pettersson, Tolvanen, and Heiskanen above him from what I've seen of all four, but beyond that, it gets a lot tighter to determine, especially upwards of a dozen more.
 

Lackhalak

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May 26, 2017
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Who do you have above him? I'd put Pettersson, Tolvanen, and Heiskanen above him from what I've seen of all four, but beyond that, it gets a lot tighter to determine, especially upwards of a dozen more.

Necas, Makar, Glass, Vilardi and the 3 you mentioned (in no particular order). I put Mittlestadt in a group of 8-15
 

Lackhalak

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May 26, 2017
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I would MAYBE have Mittelstadt at #2 behind Pettersson.
Interesting post from someone with only 15 posts....

I dont think Mittlestadt showed enough to earn the top spot, compare his numbers after he was drafted to Boeser or Keller. Mittlestadt 30 in 34 for .88 ppg. Boeser 60 in 42 for 1.43 ppg. Keller 45 in 31 for 1.45 ppg. A good world juniors does not overshadow a very average season in collage.
 

Brodeur

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I dont think Mittlestadt showed enough to earn the top spot, compare his numbers after he was drafted to Boeser or Keller. Mittlestadt 30 in 34 for .88 ppg. Boeser 60 in 42 for 1.43 ppg. Keller 45 in 31 for 1.45 ppg. A good world juniors does not overshadow a very average season in collage.

It can be a little unfair to compare numbers across college clubs. Boeser himself went down to a little more than a point per game during his sophomore year after Schmaltz/Caggiula/Stecher turned pro after 2016. I think there's a misplaced expectation that a top NHL prospect can single handedly skate circles around NCAA competition without help.
 

Lackhalak

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May 26, 2017
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It can be a little unfair to compare numbers across college clubs. Boeser himself went down to a little more than a point per game during his sophomore year after Schmaltz/Caggiula/Stecher turned pro after 2016. I think there's a misplaced expectation that a top NHL prospect can single handedly skate circles around NCAA competition without help.

To be ranked number one, i kind of expect them to skate circles around the competition, like Pettersson has and Keller did.
 

Brodeur

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Feb 27, 2002
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To be ranked number one, i kind of expect them to skate circles around the competition, like Pettersson has and Keller did.

Keller's freshman year was awesome, but it helps that BU had a great recruiting class that year and the ones preceding him. The current Golden Gophers club isn't one of the better ones they've had. Brock Boeser's production went down in his sophomore year, but that was more a function of North Dakota losing a lot of talent to the pros. It wasn't exactly a reflection that Boeser was any less of a prospect than he was the year before.

And it's not that I necessarily disagree with your assertion that the voting puts too much stock in WJC performance. Like I mentioned in the first post, WJC bias tends to show a bit with the Future Watch since they do the voting right after the tournament. And that's the problem with print media, they do the voting in January but publish it in March. If they did the voting again now, we'd certainly get different results.
 

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