Prospect Info: 2019 Prospects

Status
Not open for further replies.

Hodgy

Registered User
Feb 23, 2012
4,266
4,236
The problem here is that there are some posters with hilarious skewed views on how prospects should develop, so they flip out when posters with more reasonable views are critical about a prospect's development. Like, with Lind and Gadjovic, being drafted in the second round put them at a 20% chance or so of succeeding. This isn't a great chance, so right off the bat, the odds are against. The next big hurdle for them is turning pro, so when each of them struggles as mightily as they have, what are their realistic chances at that point? 5%? 10% if we are being generous?
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
The problem here is that there are some posters with hilarious skewed views on how prospects should develop, so they flip out when posters with more reasonable views are critical about a prospect's development. Like, with Lind and Gadjovic, being drafted in the second round put them at a 20% chance or so of succeeding. This isn't a great chance, so right off the bat, the odds are against. The next big hurdle for them is turning pro, so when each of them struggles as mightily as they have, what are their realistic chances at that point? 5%? 10% if we are being generous?


Yes.

And what's frustrating to me is how people don't learn from this, and continue to craft "projected" lineups that include Jett Woo or whoever the latest overrated prospect is who is piling up points against children.
 

bobbyb2009

Registered User
Sep 3, 2009
1,898
953
Yes.

And what's frustrating to me is how people don't learn from this, and continue to craft "projected" lineups that include Jett Woo or whoever the latest overrated prospect is who is piling up points against children.

This! I have to agree. Me too.
 

Cupless44

Registered User
Jun 25, 2014
7,154
3,298
I am on record as wanting management change but I still get tired of the negativity and appreciate some balance. On the current roster Virtanen in a good example. I can still be pretty positive about Jake at 22. I can enjoy witnessing the evolving improvement in his game and be positive he is going to be a very useful fast and physical player. I don’t feel the need to ignore his obvious improvement in the past year and rag for 5 years that he is a bust and we should have drafted Ehlers or Nylander.

Nothing wrong with being positive about some prospects. When MacEwen was signed as an UDFA many on here said Benning wasted a salary spot and said he would never be anywhere near the NHL. I loved the signing at the time and still do. I feel positive he can play in the NHL. Nothing wrong with that, right or wrong.

And frankly no one on the board has all the answers or know quite as much as they think they do.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
Real discussion is good though some on this board are pretty negative and pessimistic about every prospect. We watch a team that is missing the playoffs for 4 straight seasons. If we can’t be a little positive about some of the prospects, with hope for a better future...what really is the point of following the team? Not everyone follows the Canucks with sole purpose of ragging on the team.

I am on record as wanting management change but I still get tired of the negativity and appreciate some balance. On the current roster Virtanen in a good example. I can still be pretty positive about Jake at 22. I can enjoy witnessing the evolving improvement in his game and be positive he is going to be a very useful fast and physical player. I don’t feel the need to ignore his obvious improvement in the past year and rag for 5 years that he is a bust and we should have drafted Ehlers or Nylander.

Nothing wrong with being positive about some prospects. When MacEwen was signed as an UDFA many on here said Benning wasted a salary spot and said he would never be anywhere near the NHL. I loved the signing at the time and still do. I feel positive he can play in the NHL. Nothing wrong with that, right or wrong.

And frankly no one on the board has all the answers or know quite as much as they think they do.

I don't know what to tell you man. It's a discussion forum. I come here to talk about hockey. If it means that I'm "negative" on players like Jett Woo because I know that he's 20% at best to be an NHL player then I guess I just have to accept that.
 

Cupless44

Registered User
Jun 25, 2014
7,154
3,298
I don't know what to tell you man. It's a discussion forum. I come here to talk about hockey. If it means that I'm "negative" on players like Jett Woo because I know that he's 20% at best to be an NHL player then I guess I just have to accept that.

I would say that this is a particular player you are choosing the glass half empty outlook on. You don’t KNOW he has a 20% chance to make the NHL, that is an opinion you think. He is all of 18 years old, coming off an injury, starting to play well as a well rounded defenceman. He skates well and has decent size. You are likely not a professional scout or coach with experience in developing WHL players for the NHL qualified to definitively know he will not make the NHL.

You want to talk Palmu that is another story.
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
I would say that this is a particular player you are choosing the glass half empty outlook on. You don’t KNOW he has a 20% chance to make the NHL, that is an opinion you think. He is all of 18 years old, coming off an injury, starting to play well as a well rounded defenceman. He skates well and has decent size. You are likely not a professional scout or coach with experience in developing WHL players for the NHL qualified to definitively know he will not make the NHL.

You want to talk Palmu that is another story.

Sure man, whatever you say. I guess we shouldn't post things unless we can prove them in a court of law. See you never.

I don't know why 20% is "negative" by the way. Those are decent odds. Palmu is 0%.

It's really funny when someone posts a probability and they are charged with "definitively know[ing] he will not make the NHL." In what way in your mind is 20% definitive.

Mathophobia sometimes on this forum, I swear to God.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Canadian Club

sting101

Registered User
Feb 8, 2012
15,707
14,508
Playing the right way just means putting team before individual peformance it makes sense
 

VanJack

Registered User
Jul 11, 2014
21,043
14,073
The problem here is that there are some posters with hilarious skewed views on how prospects should develop, so they flip out when posters with more reasonable views are critical about a prospect's development. Like, with Lind and Gadjovic, being drafted in the second round put them at a 20% chance or so of succeeding. This isn't a great chance, so right off the bat, the odds are against. The next big hurdle for them is turning pro, so when each of them struggles as mightily as they have, what are their realistic chances at that point? 5%? 10% if we are being generous?

Canucks have basically two elite-level prospects -- Elias Pettersson, who's really already arrived, and Quinn Hughes. As far as the rest, every team in the league has their own prospects similar to the Canucks 3-10 rated prospects. Some will work out, but a lot more won't. That's just the reality of the amateur draft and parity in the NHL.
 

ChilliBilly

Registered User
Aug 22, 2007
7,081
4,325
chilliwacki
I would put Woo at 20% to play 150 games, what seems to be the arbitrary bar for "making it". I would put his chances of being a 6 - 7 D man for a year at least 50%.

We shall see.
 

alternate

Win the week!
Jun 9, 2006
8,017
2,854
victoria
Yes.

And what's frustrating to me is how people don't learn from this, and continue to craft "projected" lineups that include Jett Woo or whoever the latest overrated prospect is who is piling up points against children.

Why would you find this frustrating? If you do, that's on you not the people having fun with projected lineups. Everyone knows the stats say the average 2nd rounder has a 20% or so chance of playing 100 games or whatever arbitrary number someone has decided is a success.

It's easy to talk about draft picks failing. Just about every draft pick ever made will fail. "Ya but he's probably going to bust" isn't some pinnacle of rational discussion. It's lazy and simplistic and just points out the obvious. Instead, try discussing what a player needs to improve, and what their chances of doing it are. Lind needs to improve his skating and strength before we can see if his hockey sense translates to higher levels. What does Woo do that will translate now, and what are his obstacles he needs to overcome. Simply being pessimistic when we already know every pick outside the top 3 or so faces long odds does nothing to stimulate conversation.
 

HankNDank

Registered User
Oct 25, 2013
1,614
520
Medicine Hat
Sure man, whatever you say. I guess we shouldn't post things unless we can prove them in a court of law. See you never.

I don't know why 20% is "negative" by the way. Those are decent odds. Palmu is 0%.

It's really funny when someone posts a probability and they are charged with "definitively know[ing] he will not make the NHL." In what way in your mind is 20% definitive.

Mathophobia sometimes on this forum, I swear to God.
If every pick every team makes has X% chance of making it based on the round they are picking, why does the league let the team's even pick their players? Just distribute them base on their ISS rankings. Then, once every 5 years, we can be excited about our 2nd round pick!
 

Blue and Green

Out to lunch
Dec 17, 2017
3,411
3,360
Woo's birthday is fairly late in the draft calendar, adding a little more lustre to what seems like a respectable D+1 season to this point. Those months make a difference at that age.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mr. Canucklehead

Cupless44

Registered User
Jun 25, 2014
7,154
3,298
Woo was considered a mid to late first round pick last year until injuries derailed his season. I don’t mind the pick at 37 and think he has a chance to play. He was one of the younger players in the draft.

Don’t mind a bit of a throwback player with a physical edge on this team that has been soft for many years either.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->