OT: 2018 Phillies: Part trey

[JojoTheWhale]

I was just using Kershaw as am example of perennial Cy Young contender. Halladay, Sherzer, Verlander, whomever. Nola is none of them. He's had one Cy Young caliber season. He very well may have more in the future, but you are absolutely nuts if you would rather have a CHANCE at an ace pitcher than the best position player possibly of his generation who has already established himself as such.

Interesting list. Verlander didn't have his first elite season until 26. Halladay at 25. Scherzer at 29. Nola's breakout came at 25. Don't get me wrong, his 2018 wasn't Verlander's 2009 but context is needed.

You're not accounting for team control, effect on payroll, etc. I get that you don't like to discuss those things, but they matter. Would I ultimately include him if everything else made sense? Yes, but it's a real decision with positives and negatives.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Interesting list. Verlander didn't have his first elite season until 26. Halladay at 25. Scherzer at 29. Nola's breakout came at 25. Don't get me wrong, his 2018 wasn't Verlander's 2009 but context is needed.

No I think you are missing my point. The names are illustrative. Forget about names all together. Nola is not a perennial Cy Young contender. He may turn out to be, but he is not right now nor is he guaranteed to be.

You're not accounting for team control, effect on payroll, etc. I get that you don't like to discuss those things, but they matter. Would I ultimately include him if everything else made sense? Yes, but it's a real decision with positives and negatives.

Mike Trout is the best player in baseball and is roughly the same age. Team control, salary, whatever. That doesn't matter when you are talking about acquiring Mike Trout. I am not suggesting that we trade Nola just to trade him. I am not suggesting he isn't a valuable asset. I am suggesting that if you can get a player that you KNOW will be a dominant force for the next decade or so because he already is at 26 years old you don't hold on to a pitcher because he MIGHT contend for more Cy Youngs in the future.

Five years from now Aaron Nola may have multiple Cy Young caliber seasons, but if I'm a betting man I'd bet Trout's impact on this team would be more impactful, and that's consodering salary, control, etc.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Look at Hoskins. He's our most promising young hitter I'd say. Who would you trade him for? Lance Mccullers? Luke Weaver? (Trying to think of promising young MLB arms that haven't been great but are still promising).

 

[JojoTheWhale]

No I think you are missing my point. The names are illustrative. Forget about names all together. Nola is not a perennial Cy Young contender. He may turn out to be, but he is not right now nor is he guaranteed to be.



Mike Trout is the best player in baseball and is roughly the same age. Team control, salary, whatever. That doesn't matter when you are talking about acquiring Mike Trout. I am not suggesting that we trade Nola just to trade him. I am not suggesting he isn't a valuable asset. I am suggesting that if you can get a player that you KNOW will be a dominant force for the next decade or so because he already is at 26 years old you don't hold on to a pitcher because he MIGHT contend for more Cy Youngs in the future.

Five years from now Aaron Nola may have multiple Cy Young caliber seasons, but if I'm a betting man I'd bet Trout's impact on this team would be more impactful, and that's consodering salary, control, etc.

You never know. You're more sure. That's an important difference.

The bolded just isn't how modern baseball front offices work. It's fine to think that way as a fan, but think like one as a GM and you'll be with them soon, etc.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

You never know. You're more sure. That's an important difference.

The bolded just isn't how modern baseball front offices work. It's fine to think that way as a fan, but think like one as a GM and you'll be with them soon, etc.

I think in normal circumstances you are right. I wouldn't trade Nola for let's say Aaron Judge or Stanton. But we're talking about a legit 5-tool player. That changes the discussion for fans and GMs alike. It's like you have a single winning Mega Millions ticket (Mike Trout) and you'd rather have a chance to win the Power Ball because the jackpot is higher (Nola).

 

[tucson83]

I think in normal circumstances you are right. I wouldn't trade Nola for let's say Aaron Judge or Stanton. But we're talking about a legit 5-tool player. That changes the discussion for fans and GMs alike. It's like you have a single winning Mega Millions ticket (Mike Trout) and you'd rather have a chance to win the Power Ball because the jackpot is higher (Nola).

i look at it this way in 2008, this team didnt have great pitching, we had good pitching but we had great hitting with howard, ultley rollin. and this team is similar to 08 phillies, which they had howard and we have hoskins, they have to build around him and add more hitting which is our strength and a star closer like they did with brad ledge.

if they manage to add manny, harper and trade for another star hitter like kris Bryant he's on the block, this team will be gold.

 

[Halladay]

Look at Hoskins. He's our most promising young hitter I'd say. Who would you trade him for? Lance Mccullers? Luke Weaver? (Trying to think of promising young MLB arms that haven't been great but are still promising).

McCullers is having TJS, so that is out of the question. The Astros could use him though, especially with Gonzalez with likely leaving.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

i look at it this way in 2008, this team didnt have great pitching, we had good pitching but we had great hitting with howard, ultley rollin. and this team is similar to 08 phillies, which they had howard and we have hoskins, they have to build around him and add more hitting which is our strength and a star closer like they did with brad ledge.

if they manage to add manny, harper and trade for another star hitter like kris Bryant he's on the block, this team will be gold.

He's not really on the block, though. The whole quote from Epstein was something like "I can't imagine the scenario in which we trade guys like (Bryant and Rizzo), but I don't like to deal in absolutes. Why limit yourself?" I am paraphrasing, but it was something very close to that.

I think it's in this linked article that I saw it.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

@JojoTheWhale I also want to point out that I'm not saying Nola won't turn into a perennial Cy Young guy, just that he is not at the moment but Trout is a perennial MVP candidate and dominant player right now and barring an injury should be for the next decade or so. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

if they manage to add manny, harper and trade for another star hitter like kris Bryant he's on the block, this team will be gold.

Your expecations are way, way, way, way, way, way, way out of whack. The hell even is this?

@JojoTheWhale I also want to point out that I'm not saying Nola won't turn into a perennial Cy Young guy, just that he is not at the moment but Trout is a perennial MVP candidate and dominant player right now and barring an injury should be for the next decade or so. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Yeah, I get you completely. You weren't slamming Nola at all. It's just that baseball has turned into a giant spreadsheet. I enjoy so much about the new data that we have, but I find it tough to have discussions that ignore that even if I find those retro style debates more fun on some level.

 

[tucson83]

@JojoTheWhale I also want to point out that I'm not saying Nola won't turn into a perennial Cy Young guy, just that he is not at the moment but Trout is a perennial MVP candidate and dominant player right now and barring an injury should be for the next decade or so. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

i would trade nola for trout and the way the organization is focused more hitting, it wouldnt surprise me they are going that way.

 

[magnumpi]

Why are people debating trade Nola?

He's someone you dont trade. Whether Trout is worth it isn't the point.

It's opening up a huge hole on the roster.

In reality, its not going to happen but of course I see the usual poster getting into a tantrum over it.

 

[magnumpi]

Aaron Nola is 25 and he had one season where he was Cy Young caliber. Mike Trout is 26 and has finished top five in the league MVP voting each year of his career (and won it twice). I am not knocking Nola, but let's not pretend like he has a proven track record of Cy Young caliber pitching. Even if you look at advanced stats, of which I'm not a huge fan, Nola is not all that impressive outside of this past year. That's not a big enough track record to forego the best player in baseball entering his prime.

Building around pitching is a good idea. I'm not advocating that we shop Nola to improve hitting. We should not do that. But if you are choosing between Trout and Nola, it has to be Trout. If Aaron Nola was Clayton Kershaw level, I could see the argument. But he is not Kershaw right now. Will he be? Possibly. But he is not right now on that level. I'm taking Trout every day of the week over Nola and it isn't even close.

Frankly, I don't see Trout being traded so I think its a moot point.

You'll have to acquire him as a free agent.

If he was available, I wouldn't gut my roster for 2 years of Trout. We;d be like... the Angels for 2 seasons

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Why are people debating trade Nola?

He's someone you dont trade. Whether Trout is worth it isn't the point.

It's opening up a huge hole on the roster.

In reality, its not going to happen but of course I see the usual poster getting into a tantrum over it.

It’s a discussion board and it’s the off-season.

Makes sense to me.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I wouldn't trade Nola for let's say Aaron Judge or Stanton.

Dude what? You wouldn't trade Nola for Judge, but you're without a doubt trading him for Trout?! And implying that Judge and Stanton have equal trade value is laughable.

 

[Halladay]

Think JRam is the only player I would trade Nola for. He is really cheap through 2023. But Cleveland has a plethora of starters, so it isn't realistic.

 

[montreal]

The problem with trading Nola for Trout, look at the record for the phillies for games Nola pitched vs games he didn't. If you trade him for Trout, you end up in the same spot as the Angles, not good enough to compete. Then what happens if he signs somewhere else in 2 years? I wouldn't do it. Now if they had a deal where Trout would sign right away but then his trade value goes way up vs what it would be if he refuses to re-sign. Even then though, if you trade Nola who takes his spot?

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Dude what? You wouldn't trade Nola for Judge, but you're without a doubt trading him for Trout?! And implying that Judge and Stanton have equal trade value is laughable.

That is correct. Mike Trout is better than Aaron Judge. I would trade Nola for Trout but not for Judge. And I wasn't implying Judge and Stanton were of equal value or even skill or impact, I was just naming two prominent players for whom I would not trade Nola. I could probably list a number of other players to illustrate the point.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Frankly, I don't see Trout being traded so I think its a moot point.

You'll have to acquire him as a free agent.

If he was available, I wouldn't gut my roster for 2 years of Trout. We;d be like... the Angels for 2 seasons

Oh I agree it is unlikely that the Angels trade him and I would be shocked if they did it for Nola. As for two more seasons of Trout, you know that Nola is going to be a free agent I believe in three years so it is not like we have Nola locked in for a decade and we're guaranteed to lose Trout in two years.

 

[FLYguy3911]

That is correct. Mike Trout is better than Aaron Judge. I would trade Nola for Trout but not for Judge. And I wasn't implying Judge and Stanton were of equal value or even skill or impact, I was just naming two prominent players for whom I would not trade Nola. I could probably list a number of other players to illustrate the point.

Mike Trout might be the best player ever. That's not the point. You are eliminating other factors that make trading for Player X worth it. Where do you draw the line on Trout? Are you trading Nola for him mideseason in 2020?

And I would like to see that list because most people would agree that Judge is a top 5 most valuable asset in baseball.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Judge is a top 5 most valuable asset in baseball.

I think you could make a solid argument he's as high as 3. I'll take the left side of Cleveland's infield over everyone, then Judge is in the next pack.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I think you could make a solid argument he's as high as 3. I'll take the left side of Cleveland's infield over everyone, then Judge is in the next pack.

Yup. I was being generous.

 

[Hurricane28]

I think Trout comes here if he’s a FA. I don’t think LAA has much leverage so that’s my main reason for not giving up Nola

 

[montreal]

Oh I agree it is unlikely that the Angels trade him and I would be shocked if they did it for Nola. As for two more seasons of Trout, you know that Nola is going to be a free agent I believe in three years so it is not like we have Nola locked in for a decade and we're guaranteed to lose Trout in two years.

from what i've heard the phils are looking at locking up both Nola and Hoskins but I don't know how strong that rumor is or if they are talking this off-season or perhaps next. But Nola is under team control so clearly they would lock him up before he gets close to that 3rd year imo.

I think Trout comes here if he’s a FA. I don’t think LAA has much leverage so that’s my main reason for not giving up Nola

That's the thing, right now it's all a moot point cause it will all come down to what does Trout do this off-season. If he turns down the Angles, he's very likely gone at some point before 2 years and if not then we know he's likely staying there for a long time.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Mike Trout might be the best player ever. That's not the point. You are eliminating other factors that make trading for Player X worth it. Where do you draw the line on Trout? Are you trading Nola for him mideseason in 2020?

I mean, I think I have made myself pretty clear that I don't really have a line for Trout. He's the best player in baseball about to enter his prime. Salary, control, etc. whatever the other factors are you would be considering in a deal for any other player don't really come in to play in my mind. I'm 100% certain the Angels would not make this trade for Nola straight up so there would be more added, and the more you add the less likely I would be to make the trade, but it would have to be a whole heck of a lot to dissuade me.

And I would like to see that list because most people would agree that Judge is a top 5 most valuable asset in baseball.

He may be and that's fine. But he ain't Mike Trout.