Speculation: 2018 Off-season Thread #3

[RemoAZ]

I still feel like we need one more move for a legit top 6 rw. Panik and some futures to upgrade that spot.

 

[XX]

I still feel like we need one more move for a legit top 6 rw. Panik and some futures to upgrade that spot.

Panik of last season already produced at a top 6 clip. There's a good chance you're not really getting an actual upgrade, given the available budget and trade ammo.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Panik of last season already produced at a top 6 clip. There's a good chance you're not really getting an actual upgrade, given the available budget and trade ammo.

Yep - no reason to really get rid of Panik since he actually performed at a decent enough clip last year.

I was okay with the Hayton pick, but for those individuals who are questionable with it, if we knew that Hayton was our target, would you have preferred the suggestion of trading the #5 pick straight up for a first line RW?

 

[BUX7PHX]

One other thought - that pick up of Oesterle seems a little underrated. OEL is locked up long term and Goligoski has a NMC until July 1st, 2019, at which point, he submits the 8 team no trade list.

As odd as this sounds, are we souring on Chychrun considering in two years, he has now missed a combined 46 games? I am not suggesting that we are actively looking to shop him now, but let's say that Oesterle puts himself into the conversation for bigger minutes b/c we like what we see in camp. Teams that would be looking to deal a top line RW may be more apt to do so for a player like Chychrun, given his youth and upside is still strong. The injuries were not exactly long-term type of things, like Hanzal's back, but would that give us enough reason to suggest that Chychrun is more likely to be on an injury report than not and we may be willing to move him around? Does Chychrun's agent have a history of taking a hard line stance in negotiations? All of those factors could be at play.

 

[Name Nameless]

...

As odd as this sounds, are we souring on Chychrun considering in two years, he has now missed a combined 46 games? ...

Chychrun has had tough luck.

With a big roster, it is to expected someone has tough luck.

If you sour on Chychrun for being that guy, I sure hope you are not thinking the same as Chayka or Tocchet.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Chychrun has had tough luck.

With a big roster, it is to expected someone has tough luck.

If you sour on Chychrun for being that guy, I sure hope you are not thinking the same as Chayka or Tocchet.

I am not saying that I would agree with it, either. But as Chayka called out in the Domi deal, sometimes you have to give a good player to get a good player. While he has had tough luck, I do wonder if teams have used past data to track things like major injuries prior to a certain age and how long the careers last. Say a player has had a major knee injury before the age of 21 is expected to cut an average of 2 years off the career - probably something that isn't a big deal. But let's say that number is actually closer to 4 years. Does that change the way that player is valued? A player like Merkley is in that situation with 2 knee injuries now before the age of 21. How does that change his long-term outlook?

Anyhow, I am just suggesting that when you look at all of the items surrounding a LHD like Chychrun:

1. picking up Oesterle
2. Goligoski's NMC
3. injury history
4. Chychrun's age and perceived value
5. history with agent (not certain who his agent is, but if he has the same agent that represented a player like Reider, that would be a red flag)

I can't advocate that it would be the smartest of ideas but it could certainly be something that could be on the minds of the decision-makers.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

I'm not against Chychrun at all, but I don't really see what so many of us like about him. Is he really a potential 1st pair defensman? I hope so, but I haven't seen the hints of that kind of potential. As to his injuries, I suspect he just got them out of his system and he won't have any more.

 

[BUX7PHX]

I'm not against Chychrun at all, but I don't really see what so many of us like about him. Is he really a potential 1st pair defensman? I hope so, but I haven't seen the hints of that kind of potential. As to his injuries, I suspect he just got them out of his system and he won't have any more.

That's a fair statement. I think we all like Chychrun as a 2nd pairing D with potential for top pairing (which isn't going to happen in the next 8 years). But what does it also say when Oesterle averaged the 2nd most minutes at D for the Blackhawks last year? If our left side is that strong with OEL, Goligoski, and Chychrun, it seems like we would add someone slightly less significant than that, no? Unless something else was in the works. Could even be prep work to have a player like this to expose for the expansion draft down the line, or to cover whomever it is that we may lose in the expansion draft. It just seems like there is more writing behind this move and Hinostroza wasn't just the main piece in this deal.

 

[_Del_]

Oesterle played the right side last year for the most part. I think Oesterle was better than a throw-in, but Vinny was definitely the bigger get.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Good to know. Just interesting that Oesterle saw that many minutes. Guess Chicago really wants Murphy to succeed there.

 

[cobra427]

That's a fair statement. I think we all like Chychrun as a 2nd pairing D with potential for top pairing (which isn't going to happen in the next 8 years). But what does it also say when Oesterle averaged the 2nd most minutes at D for the Blackhawks last year? If our left side is that strong with OEL, Goligoski, and Chychrun, it seems like we would add someone slightly less significant than that, no? Unless something else was in the works. Could even be prep work to have a player like this to expose for the expansion draft down the line, or to cover whomever it is that we may lose in the expansion draft. It just seems like there is more writing behind this move and Hinostroza wasn't just the main piece in this deal.

I don’t think we would get much for Chychrun now because of the knee injuries. He is also still not proven, maybe a top 4D now maybe not. I think he needs to have a good year and stay injury free for his value to go up. I am glad our D is deeper, we will have injuries. I don’t see Chayka moving Chychrun at this time.

 

[BUX7PHX]

I don’t think we would get much for Chychrun now because of the knee injuries. He is also still not proven, maybe a top 4D now maybe not. I think he needs to have a good year and stay injury free for his value to go up. I am glad our D is deeper, we will have injuries. I don’t see Chayka moving Chychrun at this time.

That's kind of why I asked the question in the first place. We may see the injuries, see the rehab progress and say that while we still think he is a good player, another team may not look as deep into injury history and might have a different value on Chychrun than what we put on him. Maybe since rehab appears to be going fine, we are using that as a less likely approach to entertain offers.

As was said before, sometimes you have to give value to get value. If a one-for-one trade of very good value came up (who is the RW equivalent of what Chychrun could become - Eberle?). If the Islanders are ignoring the knee injuries and past other injuries, but we have some idea that Chychrun may be far less likely to reach and stay at his potential value b/c of those same injuries (i.e. his expected longevity goes from 8 years to 5 years) and Eberle is willing to sign a friendly deal for 4-5 years, maybe that is something that would be strongly considered.

At this moment right now, I agree that we don't trade Chychrun, but let's say we come out of camp seeing that both Oesterle and Lyubushkin are not significant drop-offs from Chychrun and Capobianco also puts himself in a position to see much more time than originally thought, maybe it crosses into our mind.

 

[cobra427]

That's kind of why I asked the question in the first place. We may see the injuries, see the rehab progress and say that while we still think he is a good player, another team may not look as deep into injury history and might have a different value on Chychrun than what we put on him. Maybe since rehab appears to be going fine, we are using that as a less likely approach to entertain offers.

As was said before, sometimes you have to give value to get value. If a one-for-one trade of very good value came up (who is the RW equivalent of what Chychrun could become - Eberle?). If the Islanders are ignoring the knee injuries and past other injuries, but we have some idea that Chychrun may be far less likely to reach and stay at his potential value b/c of those same injuries (i.e. his expected longevity goes from 8 years to 5 years) and Eberle is willing to sign a friendly deal for 4-5 years, maybe that is something that would be strongly considered.

At this moment right now, I agree that we don't trade Chychrun, but let's say we come out of camp seeing that both Oesterle and Lyubushkin are not significant drop-offs from Chychrun and Capobianco also puts himself in a position to see much more time than originally thought, maybe it crosses into our mind.

I agree, and think we would or could trade Chychrun given our LHD depth. I just think his injuries kill his value for now. That could change by the TDL or next summer assuming he has recovered from his injuries and produces.

 

[Jakey53]

I agree, and think we would or could trade Chychrun given our LHD depth. I just think his injuries kill his value for now. That could change by the TDL or next summer assuming he has recovered from his injuries and produces.

Not with RT as coach. Chychrun has been amazing considering his age and playing a difficult position. He is still a kid, learning and progressing as he goes. Injuries happen, I just hope he is not injury prone, but if he can go through this year with no injuries his development and value should sky rocket.

 

[Heldig]

Wonder what the Coyotes would need to add to trade for a signed Trouba?

 

[SR]

Absolute no on trading Chychrun. You trade every other LHD, minus OEL, before Chychrun. Why this is even being discussed is beyond me.

 

[Ebb]

Absolute no on trading Chychrun. You trade every other LHD, minus OEL, before Chychrun. Why this is even being discussed is beyond me.

Well, because we need a 1C more desperately than a 2D at the moment and it will cost us a fair amount to acquire one.

Personally, I'm fine with Stepan/Galchenyuk competing for the 1C spot, but if we could get a true 1C, I'd be elated. Of course I'd hope Chychrun isn't included in such a deal, but we're not going to be able to fleece someone for a 1C.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Absolute no on trading Chychrun. You trade every other LHD, minus OEL, before Chychrun. Why this is even being discussed is beyond me.

I outlined exactly why. Gogo has an NMC until next July and do we wait that long for a deal? Chychrun has already missed 46 games in two seasons. Is that just getting injuries out of the way, or is he injury prone? We also signed Lyubushkin and picked up Oesterle in a trade (both LHD). I was informed that Oesterle primarily played the right side in Chicago, but we have no idea what he is or is not capable of, but we do know that he played the 2nd most minutes on D for the Blackhawks last year, in terms of average TOI.

If we go through training camp and realize that Lyubishkin, Oesterle, and/or Capobianco are all right in line to be deserving of minutes and Chychrun is not terribly far ahead of them on the depth chart, why wouldn't we at least explore the idea, especially if Chychrun has an agent that we have had difficulty with in the past or there are concerns about him reaching his peak when looking at his injury history?

Let's say that a team was looking to pick up a young LHD in exchange for a top line RW. Even though one of those 3 players referenced above could be equal or close to equal with Chychrun, which name would be targeted for that type of trade? Probably the possibly injury prone but tantalizing talent who was taken #16 OA. Probably not the players who were undrafted or drafted later than the 1st round. That's called good asset management if we can potentially turn a player who might be injury prone and may not be on the ice as much as we would like/need into something of greater need and/or value. Especially if Oesterle, Lyubushkin, or Capobianco are considered relatively similar to what Chychrun can bring on a night to night basis now and in the future.

It's a board to make random thoughts and see what the story is. I am actually surprised b/c it looks like a few people don't see Chychrun as being a guaranteed top pairing D, and some have mentioned that they don't see the hype about him. By all accounts, both Sergachev and McAvoy appear to have greater potential than he does. We still haven't seen some of his other peers quite yet, but maybe there was a reason why he became the 5th defensemen taken in that draft. Samuel Girard may have more upside.

Player A: 0.29 PPG and average of 1:01 minutes per game in the penalty box
Player B: 0.31 PPG and average of 0:06 per game in the penalty box

Obviously, these are very basic stats and they don't tell all, including game play, team quality, pairings, etc. But which one would you want? Player A or player B? One of them is Girard and one is Chychrun.

Regardless, usually things are done for a reason. Hayton was selected b/c we wanted to further have C depth. That could mean a lack of confidence in Strome and could mean a few other factors. Is it possible that we wanted to shore up our LHD situation b/c there is a chance that we consider Chychrun to be more "damaged goods" than what it appears, yet there may be a handful of teams out there who are willing to take Chychrun on in exchange for another need.

 

[rt]

Strome and Galchenyuk are complete wild cards. Hayton has showed barely more than your typically mid-late first rounder. Dvorak has a lot more potential but we need to see him flash it at this level. What if Galchenyuk looks great at C, Strome starts dropping points left and right, Dvorak starts to look like ROR and Hayton blows the doors off the OHL next year?

We threw a bunch of shit at the wall to see what stuck. Can you please just wait to see if any of it does before you go slinging more shit. Just wait one season.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Strome and Galchenyuk are complete wild cards. Hayton has showed barely more than your typically mid-late first rounder. Dvorak has a lot more potential but we need to see him flash it at this level. What if Galchenyuk looks great at C, Strome starts dropping points left and right, Dvorak starts to look like ROR and Hayton blows the doors off the OHL next year?

We threw a bunch of **** at the wall to see what stuck. Can you please just wait to see if any of it does before you go slinging more ****. Just wait one season.

Like I said - if Chychrun winds up missing 25 more games, how concerned do we become about him? To a lesser degree, that could be a Hanzal scenario all over again. Yes, he is helpful when on the ice, but he isn't on the ice enough to be a meaningful presence.

I understand what you're saying (i.e. just slinging shit), but the reality is that everything needs a contingency plan. What if Hayton was taken at #4, what was our contingency plan then? Take Tkachuk? Trade the pick? Take Zadina? Take the next best C in Veleno? Is it possible that one of the plusses for getting Oesterle and picking up Lyubushkin was the contingency plan that Chychrun could simply be injury prone, and it may be something on the minds of the people in charge? While it doesn't guarantee that we would move forward with trading Chychrun any more than keeping him and seeing how he recovers, it is a part of the contingency plan so that we don't fall off a cliff when/if Chychrun (or any other D, for that matter) misses time.

 

[Mosby]

Wonder what the Coyotes would need to add to trade for a signed Trouba?

I like him, but don't really want to pay the price (RD is a need, but not a gaping hole) plus this is twice now where he and his agent have been sort of a pain to deal with. The contract holdout two years ago and this year's arbitration. Plus he's eligible for arbitration again next summer. Just not worth the pain. Same agent as Mike Smith FWIW.

 

[Jamieh]

I like him, but don't really want to pay the price (RD is a need, but not a gaping hole) plus this is twice now where he and his agent have been sort of a pain to deal with. The contract holdout two years ago and this year's arbitration. Plus he's eligible for arbitration again next summer. Just not worth the pain. Same agent as Mike Smith FWIW.

A major issue with Trouba is that he wants to live in the US. His Father has a criminal record and can't enter Canada which us an issue for the player. Agent is still a pain and I don't personally feel he has earned the $7 million contract he wants.

 

[rt]

Like I said - if Chychrun winds up missing 25 more games, how concerned do we become about him? To a lesser degree, that could be a Hanzal scenario all over again. Yes, he is helpful when on the ice, but he isn't on the ice enough to be a meaningful presence.

I understand what you're saying (i.e. just slinging ****), but the reality is that everything needs a contingency plan. What if Hayton was taken at #4, what was our contingency plan then? Take Tkachuk? Trade the pick? Take Zadina? Take the next best C in Veleno? Is it possible that one of the plusses for getting Oesterle and picking up Lyubushkin was the contingency plan that Chychrun could simply be injury prone, and it may be something on the minds of the people in charge? While it doesn't guarantee that we would move forward with trading Chychrun any more than keeping him and seeing how he recovers, it is a part of the contingency plan so that we don't fall off a cliff when/if Chychrun (or any other D, for that matter) misses time.

Wait. The answer is obviously to wait.

 

[Jamieh]

I wouldn't be shopping Chychrun but if someone comes offering something we need more then away he goes.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Wait. The answer is obviously to wait.

If we had not signed Lyubushkin and not picked up Oesterle, instead going after bargain basement FA signings that were expected to be nothing more than injury call-ups and the expectation that they are a #7 D at best, then I could agree with waiting. However, getting a player who saw significant NHL ice time in Oesterle and someone, who by all accounts, has the physical toughness that we may want in Chychrun, but haven't been able to rely on staying on the ice for at least 70 games in the year would suggest that there may be something that we don't know about. Which is why I suggested the ideas of adverse philosophies between agent/management and/or being uncertain regarding the injury history and what that means to us. The only D whom I consider "safe" at this point are OEL, Hjalmarsson, and Goligoski (mainly b/c of the NMC - if not for the NMC, Goligoski would be a bigger target to look into dealing, should the situation arise).