Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[Halla]

Don't get me wrong Miller isn't perfect either

He moves the puck really well but hasn't put up a ton of points, I'm overlooking that because he gets zero PP time and plays as the defensive conscience on his pair with some very offense first partners

He also tends to puck watch at times and will end up facing the same way as the guys bearing down on him to often as well, instead of facing the play and backing in, but as I said he's been a forward most of his life and is still learning but he's hugely toolsy



He's to much of a head case for me

It's hard enough developing guys as is without dealing with them being ass hats with multiple coaches thrown into the mix, then giving up on plays because your pouting as well

kis is one of the youngest in the draft, a couple weeks away from being a 2019 pick.
16-17 year olds are just that, 16-17

Babs would whip him into shape

 

[Kiwi]

kis is one of the youngest in the draft, a couple weeks away from being a 2019 pick.
16-17 year olds are just that, 16-17

Babs would whip him into shape

He's got to develop to an NHL level for Babcock to get his hands on him

My issue with him is it's not just one coaching staff that's had problems controlling him, it two and his behaviour isn't getting better

He's also problematic on the ice to, I've sat down and watched him a few times shift by shift and there's some serious issues to deal with
The kid straight up quits on plays, he's a train wreck defensively and shows zero willingness to improve that area of his game (it certainly hasn't improved this season) and I've never seen a defenseman last back into his own zone as often as he is, there's zero excuse for it, he skates amazingly well

All of that is going to take some serious fixing

 

[93LEAFS]

kis is one of the youngest in the draft, a couple weeks away from being a 2019 pick.
16-17 year olds are just that, 16-17

Babs would whip him into shape

How often do these players get fixed? More likely Babs banished him to the marlies for them to deal with him.

When has Babs every really fixed someone with serious attitude concerns? The only one even close is Kadri, and he was nothing like this, just a bit reluctant to change his game and unprofessional off the ice in how he prepared.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Where is Johnny Gruden slated to go in this draft? late 2nd? 3rd?

Is Kotkaniemi dropping?

I am completely behind on hockey.

 

[cookie]

I'm still hoping for Merkley. obviously weaker away from the puck than most in this range but top 5 offense.
When he is ready in 3-4 years who knows what we will need?

An earlier post showed how off the charts Merkley is with respects to creating scoring chance assists, being at least 2x better than other draft-eligible CHL defenders, so it got me thinking. If defensemen's stats are heavily influenced by the guys in front of him, then why is it that, even with the number of scoring chance assists Merkley's generating, that his production isn't drastically different than his CHL contemporaries? Could it be that the guys in front of him just aren't finishing his chances? Aside from Ratcliffe and Hill, there were no other near-ppg players on the team.

Maybe it's just a hunch, but I'd be willing to bet that a lot of Merkley's bad habits are borne of a need, rather a desperation, to get his team to score. Obviously, as his plus-minutes alludes to, the Storm aren't too good in keeping the puck out of the net and a big part of that's on him as well. Internationally, he was a top scorer for Canada in the Ivan Hlinka tournament but the other instances weren't too noticeable. Unlike a fridge on skates that aspires to be the next Hal Gill, Merkley would be my pick as a project for this draft. Maybe the Leafs can get him onto a contender?

(I should add that I'm not saying Miller is that fridge, just that I've not been too attached with some of our past picks)

 

[Halla]

How often do these players get fixed? More likely Babs banished him to the marlies for them to deal with him.

When has Babs every really fixed someone with serious attitude concerns? The only one even close is Kadri, and he was nothing like this, just a bit reluctant to change his game and unprofessional off the ice in how he prepared.

Laine had questions surrounding his attitude

Sprong dropped to 46th because of his attitude issues, just finished his rookie season in the AHL with 32g/65pts in 65 games.

Ho sang was a late first, but has 22pts in his first 43 games

Radulov mid 1st

Kessel slid to 5th.

 

[Halla]

An earlier post showed how off the charts Merkley is with respects to creating scoring chance assists, being at least 2x better than other draft-eligible CHL defenders, so it got me thinking. If defensemen's stats are heavily influenced by the guys in front of him, then why is it that, even with the number of scoring chance assists Merkley's generating, that his production isn't drastically different than his CHL contemporaries? Could it be that the guys in front of him just aren't finishing his chances? Aside from Ratcliffe and Hill, there were no other near-ppg players on the team.

Maybe it's just a hunch, but I'd be willing to bet that a lot of Merkley's bad habits are borne of a need, rather a desperation, to get his team to score. Obviously, as his plus-minutes alludes to, the Storm aren't too good in keeping the puck out of the net and a big part of that's on him as well. Internationally, he was a top scorer for Canada in the Ivan Hlinka tournament but the other instances weren't too noticeable. Unlike a fridge on skates that aspires to be the next Hal Gill, Merkley would be my pick as a project for this draft. Maybe the Leafs can get him onto a contender?

(I should add that I'm not saying Miller is that fridge, just that I've not been too attached with some of our past picks)

the team is awful. Merkley led the team in scoring as a rookie 16 year old dman...thats almost unheard of
1 pt back of the scoring lead his 2nd year in 4 less games. so yeah, safe to say his teammates arent finishing his created chances. throw him on london and he probably has a bouchard like statline.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Laine had questions surrounding his attitude

Sprong dropped to 46th because of his attitude issues, just finished his rookie season in the AHL with 32g/65pts in 65 games.

Ho sang was a late first, but has 22pts in his first 43 games

Radulov mid 1st

Kessel slid to 5th.

I don't think he had attitude issues in Jr, only he was Russian.

 

[meefer]

First of all, thx again to the posters here who provide me with info about the up and comers. It’s fun to read and suggests to me a counter argument to the prevailing credo: draft the best player available, regardless of need. Of course, the top young players 1-10 (just a grouping) are going to be evaluated by their skill and projected development and drafted accordingly. However, as skill sets equalize, as the kids learn the importance of year round dedication to their sport and as coaching and development programs are equalizing throughout the hockey world, am I correct in assuming that the difference in the best player in draft group 10-15/20-30/45-55 etc., sees a decreasing ability to gauge who is the best player available in that group? And as such, might a better strategy be to draft for positional need within that selection group as you’re identified need is more determinable than is the ability to identify the BPA within that selection group? In other words, if at pick #23 the Leafs identify a forward as being the BPA, but the Leafs need for a D prospect is seen by the team as being a greater need, should the Leafs select their highest rated D prospect - even if they rank the kid as the 25th best prospect - because the differences between 23rd best and 25th (or 26th) best are so slight? I’d suggest this might be more apparent in the later rounds. Thoughts?

 

[realgoodleafs]

How often do these players get fixed? More likely Babs banished him to the marlies for them to deal with him.

When has Babs every really fixed someone with serious attitude concerns? The only one even close is Kadri, and he was nothing like this, just a bit reluctant to change his game and unprofessional off the ice in how he prepared.

What did Merkley do?

 

[93LEAFS]

Laine had questions surrounding his attitude

Sprong dropped to 46th because of his attitude issues, just finished his rookie season in the AHL with 32g/65pts in 65 games.

Ho sang was a late first, but has 22pts in his first 43 games

Radulov mid 1st

Kessel slid to 5th.

Laine questions were erased by draft day. Something that isn't the case for Merkley.

Again, these aren't people Babcock fixed. Ho-Sang spent this year in the minors and will probably be in another organization soon. The Isles are unlikely to see good value return on that pick. Shinkaruk is on to another organization. Duclair is on his 3rd. DeAngelo is on his 3rd.

Radulov had no character concerns. Sprong still hasn't proven anything at the NHL level.

 

[93LEAFS]

An earlier post showed how off the charts Merkley is with respects to creating scoring chance assists, being at least 2x better than other draft-eligible CHL defenders, so it got me thinking. If defensemen's stats are heavily influenced by the guys in front of him, then why is it that, even with the number of scoring chance assists Merkley's generating, that his production isn't drastically different than his CHL contemporaries? Could it be that the guys in front of him just aren't finishing his chances? Aside from Ratcliffe and Hill, there were no other near-ppg players on the team.

Maybe it's just a hunch, but I'd be willing to bet that a lot of Merkley's bad habits are borne of a need, rather a desperation, to get his team to score. Obviously, as his plus-minutes alludes to, the Storm aren't too good in keeping the puck out of the net and a big part of that's on him as well. Internationally, he was a top scorer for Canada in the Ivan Hlinka tournament but the other instances weren't too noticeable. Unlike a fridge on skates that aspires to be the next Hal Gill, Merkley would be my pick as a project for this draft. Maybe the Leafs can get him onto a contender?

(I should add that I'm not saying Miller is that fridge, just that I've not been too attached with some of our past picks)

He did the exact same crap playing for the Junior Canadians and he's doing it at the U-18's. It isn't out of necessity, its how he plays and how he wants to play. Coaches have wanted him to change his game and he refuses.

What did Merkley do?

Well for starters he's been sent to the dressing room by two different coaches for talking back. Including one that led to a suspension and being sent home.

 

[93LEAFS]

the team is awful. Merkley led the team in scoring as a rookie 16 year old dman...thats almost unheard of
1 pt back of the scoring lead his 2nd year in 4 less games. so yeah, safe to say his teammates arent finishing his created chances. throw him on london and he probably has a bouchard like statline.

He'd be traded by London and or wouldn't get the minutes Bouchard does because he wouldn't be trusted to handle them. The kids a minus 70 over two seasons in the OHL (worst plus minus on his team both years). In the absence of better stats, those are absolutely reflective of his defensive effort. He's also negative relative to his teammates in gf%. He can't penalty kill. He quits on plays.

 

[Halla]

He'd be traded by London and or wouldn't get the minutes Bouchard does because he wouldn't be trusted to handle them. The kids a minus 70 over two seasons in the OHL (worst plus minus on his team both years). In the absence of better stats, those are absolutely reflective of his defensive effort. He's also negative relative to his teammates in gf%. He can't penalty kill. He quits on plays.

you held my attention until your brought up plus minus...seriously? you realize his team was AWFUL when they got the right to pick him 1 OA. they won 13 games. he jumps on the team leads em in scoring and ice time and your are gonna blast his +/-? pretty weak man.

this year merkley was -29, their other top dman was a -25 and their top scorer was -28. using team stats doesnt really work in this scenario. you think bouchard wouldnt be nearly -30 on guelph?

13 wins without merkley
21 wins with merkley leading in scoring
30 wins with merkley 2nd in scoring, but only ppg+ player

take merkley off the team and they are still shooting for the 1st pick

 

[Halla]

Laine questions were erased by draft day. Something that isn't the case for Merkley.

Again, these aren't people Babcock fixed. Ho-Sang spent this year in the minors and will probably be in another organization soon. The Isles are unlikely to see good value return on that pick. Shinkaruk is on to another organization. Duclair is on his 3rd. DeAngelo is on his 3rd.

Radulov had no character concerns. Sprong still hasn't proven anything at the NHL level.

wait wait...a rookie over 0.5ppg isnt good return on a late 1st? Ho sang makes the isles next year and id bet anything on that.

No, Laines questions werent erased draft day. He did an interview lying in his bed on HNIC. He was seen as an oddball and coachkiller. obviously it worked out pretty well

I never brought up duclair...talking about a 3rd rd pick doesnt make sense so not sure why you decided to lump him in their...ditto shinkaruk who dropped more due to his size and coaches thinking his skill wouldnt translate more than anything else.

Babcock fixed Kadri..but it wouldnt suit your agenda to talk about that eh?

 

[93LEAFS]

you held my attention until your brought up plus minus...seriously? you realize his team was AWFUL when they got the right to pick him 1 OA. they won 13 games. he jumps on the team leads em in scoring and ice time and your are gonna blast his +/-? pretty weak man.

this year merkley was -29, their other top dman was a -25 and their top scorer was -28. using team stats doesnt really work in this scenario. you think bouchard wouldnt be nearly -30 on guelph?

13 wins without merkley
21 wins with merkley leading in scoring
30 wins with merkley 2nd in scoring, but only ppg+ player

take merkley off the team and they are still shooting for the 1st pick

Merkely was -11 more than his lowest player on his team last year. I don't think plus/minus is a great stat, but its pretty representative to how detrimental his defensive game is to his team. I'm just wondering, how many games have you seen of his over the past 2 years? I've seen at least 30 to 40 including his time with Team Canada. He simply doesn't track back or play defense. He isn't good at anything on the defensive side of the ice. He looks good on highlight reels and stat sheets that ignore what he does. I'm in favor of using stats as a tool in evaluating players, but there is such a wide discrepancy between Merkley's offensive numbers and what you actually see, if you are going to point to stats evaluating him, plus-minus has to be noted. In general, he is a detriment to his team in regards to gf%.

A significant reason for the growth is better players and it isn't Merkley. The CHL tends to be highly cyclical outside of the exceptions like the Knights or Halifax. This is due to the high amount of turnover.

 

[Halla]

I don't think he had attitude issues in Jr, only he was Russian.

he was a notorious party animal .
man did he dominate with vlasic in 05-06 though

 

[93LEAFS]

wait wait...a rookie over 0.5ppg isnt good return on a late 1st? Ho sang makes the isles next year and id bet anything on that.

No, Laines questions werent erased draft day. He did an interview lying in his bed on HNIC. He was seen as an oddball and coachkiller. obviously it worked out pretty well

I never brought up duclair...talking about a 3rd rd pick doesnt make sense so not sure why you decided to lump him in their...ditto shinkaruk who dropped more due to his size and coaches thinking his skill wouldnt translate more than anything else.

Babcock fixed Kadri..but it wouldnt suit your agenda to talk about that eh?

I mentioned Kadri before you. Kadri was also a good NHLer.

Shinkaruk slipped due to personality concerns. Duclair was a highly hyped kid similar to Merkley who slipped for similar reasons. It was a reluctance to change his play style and an arrogant attitude.

Laine was seen as an oddball, but not a headcase. Nothing happened to him since the incident at Hlinka two years prior to his draft and it was documented he went to anger management therapy to fix the issue. His attitude since then alleviated the issues.

My agenda is basically that investing in head-cases tends to be a stupid move. Ho-Sang won't be with the Isles next year. If you want to point to stats, why don't you point to his most recent results? He was barely a .6 ppg in the AHL this year. There's a reason Hockey teams don't want these players.

Kadri had good NHL seasons before Babcock came along. He had some issues, but you really think Babcock is going to be that guy to bring that "come to god type moment" out of NHL players on a frequent basis? That isn't his coaching style. Its extremely demanding with high-expectations. Merkley has not responded well to these types before.

Smart teams don't draft guys trying to fix their personalities, it tends to be bad organizations that do this. Even the good organizations that have done it, have been quick to move on (see DeAngelo).

 

[93LEAFS]

he was a notorious party animal .
man did he dominate with vlasic in 05-06 though

Being a party animal doesn't kill your draft stock. Might as well include Patrick Kane, Tyler Seguin and Taylor Hall if you are going to use those guys as a benchmark. Kadri's issue was more partying than anything else and a reluctance to change his game. It wasn't constantly feuding with NHL coaches or being hated by teammates.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Anyone standing out at the u18s?

 

[DraftGuru]

Anyone standing out at the u18s?

On the Canadian side of things. Alan McShane has looked great. Sitting at close to 84% for the tournament in faceoffs. Isnt afraid to shoot the puck. He was the player of the game today.

Serron Noel has played better than I thought he would. Such a good skater for a kid his size. 6 points in 3 games.

Olivier Rodrigue looked good playing in his first game today. Very sound fundamentally and technically.

The 2 youngsters out of the Q have looked good. Lavoie and Lafreniere. Draft eligible in 2019 and 2020.

I like Sweden's Adam Ginning. Has both size and speed. He hasnt showed what he can bring offensively yet but he should be a solid 2 way dman.

With so many evenly tiered players from 25 to 60, I hope we trade down and pick up another 2nd round selection.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Merkely was -11 more than his lowest player on his team last year. I don't think plus/minus is a great stat, but its pretty representative to how detrimental his defensive game is to his team. I'm just wondering, how many games have you seen of his over the past 2 years? I've seen at least 30 to 40 including his time with Team Canada. He simply doesn't track back or play defense. He isn't good at anything on the defensive side of the ice. He looks good on highlight reels and stat sheets that ignore what he does. I'm in favor of using stats as a tool in evaluating players, but there is such a wide discrepancy between Merkley's offensive numbers and what you actually see, if you are going to point to stats evaluating him, plus-minus has to be noted. In general, he is a detriment to his team in regards to gf%.

A significant reason for the growth is better players and it isn't Merkley. The CHL tends to be highly cyclical outside of the exceptions like the Knights or Halifax. This is due to the high amount of turnover.

Even London and Halifax have their down years. I mean look at London this year. They sold off pretty much anything that wasn't coming back next year. The turnaround of Foudy, Moskal, etc. made them competitive, especially considering most teams below them were selling as well, but they got swept in the first round. Halifax got swept in the second round.

These teams do well because they put in the work to hit on later round picks that other teams don't, or as other teams complain about all of the time, get really high end players to commit. Guys who wouldn't commit to most other teams in the OHL so they go a lot later than usual. Even then, you don't see London winning every time. Just unlike the majority of teams in the CHL, you see them be competitive in a lot shorter cycles than most.

However even with guys who are willing to commit to the CHL no matter who drafts them, these top teams do it better because they are more committed to developing their players properly. That's what the lower tiered teams don't understand, and therefore they complain that they are inferior.

 

[Jeypic]

Anyone standing out at the u18s?

I watched a bit of Canada vs Swiss this morning and liked Serron noel’s Game. McBain didn’t look out of place, but didn’t really do anything to get me overly excited either. Merkley would be like drafting a slightly worse version of liljegren. But with attitude issues.

 

[Judas Tavares]

On the Canadian side of things. Alan McShane has looked great. Sitting at close to 84% for the tournament in faceoffs. Isnt afraid to shoot the puck. He was the player of the game today.

Serron Noel has played better than I thought he would. Such a good skater for a kid his size. 6 points in 3 games.

Olivier Rodrigue looked good playing in his first game today. Very sound fundamentally and technically.

The 2 youngsters out of the Q have looked good. Lavoie and Lafreniere. Draft eligible in 2019 and 2020.

I like Sweden's Adam Ginning. Has both size and speed. He hasnt showed what he can bring offensively yet but he should be a solid 2 way dman.

With so many evenly tiered players from 25 to 60, I hope we trade down and pick up another 2nd round selection.

Agree with this. Will there be "the guy" at our pick? Maybe someone drops, as they always do. But if the range is all similar, I'd like to move down and take more shots at a gem.

 

[hawkeerox]

I watched a bit of Canada vs Swiss this morning and liked Serron noel’s Game. McBain didn’t look out of place, but didn’t really do anything to get me overly excited either. Merkley would be like drafting a slightly worse version of liljegren. But with attitude issues.

Serron made a nice play to LaFreniere for the opening goal. He's big and fast - lots to like.

To me, McBain stood out nicely on a few shifts, plus also stood out for the wrong reason on one powerplay, hahah! Other than that, yup sort of a not-out-of-place game, I would agree.

Is it just me, or is Smith making some boo-boos out there that perhaps a Captain who is a defenseman shouldn't be making? All the guys make mistakes - Foudy, McShane, McBain, etc 'cause that's just the nature of competitive sport in general and hockey in particular. So, you accept them, but I thought Smith committed a few blunders above and beyond the normal error.