Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[Morgs]

I see the offensive ability, but I'm not betting on his all around game being good enough to be a top pairing defenseman...top 4 sure, so that's just my opinion but I wouldn't call that a high upside pick.

Do you consider Brent Burns/Erik Karlsson a top-pairing guy, or a top-4 guy? Because sure, they dont face the hardest comps, and sure they arent exactly good defensively. But I doubt you can make a serious case against them not being top-pairing guys.

Merkley's offense has an upside that could be in that range, coupled with strong entries/exits, and smart decision making with the puck. Although he'll never be a defensive stalwart, he'll always have that insane IQ that lets him process whats happening from the blue line forward. Its just can he take his defense from literal trash to not that bad.

 

[Community]

It would make me lose faith in the teams ability to properly assess character and cause concerns going forward.

I would be fine with basically any other pick.

edit: Flat out, taking Merkley and ignoring all the issues around him is something Garth Snow would do, and I don't want a management team that makes me think they are approaching draft fallers thinking they are getting a discount like Garth Snow.

They wouldn't be ignoring his issues, they would be determining whether or not it is worth the risk at pick #25.

If the Leafs take Merkley with their 7th round pick would that make you lose faith in the teams ability to properly assess character? I hope not, it's obvious that wherever he gets drafted is because they think he is worth the gamble of turning it around. If he stays a hot head and continues to have on ice issues, he very likely won't stick with the team that drafted him or make the NHL.

Regarding the bolded, the Leafs took Liljegren who was a draft faller and thought they were getting lucky he was available. Do you think that was a bad move? (before you say Merkley is different, I'm just commenting on the bolded part and not comparing the two)



Once again (and I won't keep commenting back because I don't think we'll agree), if the Leafs (or any team) do pick Merkley at #25 or 52 or whatever pick it is because they think he is worth the risk at that spot, not because they are overlooking his character issues. No team is picking Merkley and just overlooking his issues, they're taking him because they think its worth the risk at that pick.

 

[Sundinisagod]

They've got four second rounders. It actually makes quite a bit of sense for them to throw a pick at a lottery ticket.

What do you think @93LEAFS If you are Montreal, with the #3, and four, second rounders.... would you consider throwing one of the second rounders at Merkeley, knowing that the odds he becomes the guy the optimists think he can, are small?

They don't like headcases at all, they always go for character guys, to a fault even. They traded Subban away because they didn't like his attitude.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yeah, I'm aware and i see the risks attached to him. But i also see the upside he has to be thought of as a top-5 pick come redraft day 2025.

You mix his skill with a Connor Brown type attitude and you have Ghost.

Yeah, but you mix his attitude with Connor Brown type skill and you have a guy who's playing for UWO in USports, telling what I did back in the day stories by the pool table at Jacks.

The thing is, there are a bunch of guys who at 25 could become a top 5 pick in 2025 who don't have serious attitude issues. Historically, gambling on people red-flagged by half the league has been the smart move. Garth Snow did it multiple times and every time he ended up with a very declined asset.

I'd also add, most of the high-stats offensive guys' defenders from the OHL haven't panned out unless they were also held in high-regard by the scouting community. DeAngelo is already a bad pick for Tampa, Sanguinetti is an outright bust. MDZ is a passable player but never anything of major substance, Murphy was a complete loss for the Hurricanes. Yeah, the guys with stats like Doughty, Hamilton, and Pietrangelo panned out, but those guys passed both tests.

 

[Morgs]

Yeah, but you mix his attitude with Connor Brown type skill and you have a guy who's playing for UWO in USports, telling what I did back in the day stories by the pool table at Jacks.

The thing is, there are a bunch of guys who at 25 could become a top 5 pick in 2025 who don't have serious attitude issues. Historically, gambling on people red-flagged by half the league has been the smart move. Garth Snow did it multiple times and every time he ended up with a very declined asset.

I'd also add, most of the high-stats offensive guys' defenders from the OHL haven't panned out unless they were also held in high-regard by the scouting community. DeAngelo is already a bad pick for Tampa, Sanguinetti is an outright bust. MDZ is a passable player but never anything of major substance, Murphy was a complete loss for the Hurricanes. Yeah, the guys with stats like Doughty, Hamilton, and Pietrangelo panned out, but those guys passed both tests.

Haha true.

Again, we all see the risk attached. Just some people are willing to make the bet, and some people don't want to be anywhere near it.

I have complete faith in Dubas to make the right decision, even if it ends up being a guy like Foudy or Noel in the first.... bleh

 

[93LEAFS]

They wouldn't be ignoring his issues, they would be determining whether or not it is worth the risk at pick #25.

If the Leafs take Merkley with their 7th round pick would that make you lose faith in the teams ability to properly assess character? I hope not, it's obvious that wherever he gets drafted is because they think he is worth the gamble of turning it around. If he stays a hot head and continues to have on ice issues, he very likely won't stick with the team that drafted him or make the NHL.

Regarding the bolded, the Leafs took Liljegren who was a draft faller and thought they were getting lucky he was available. Do you think that was a bad move? (before you say Merkley is different, I'm just commenting on the bolded part and not comparing the two)



Once again (and I won't keep commenting back because I don't think we'll agree), if the Leafs (or any team) do pick Merkley at #25 or 52 or whatever pick it is because they think he is worth the risk at that spot, not because they are overlooking his character issues. No team is picking Merkley and just overlooking his issues, they're taking him because they think its worth the risk at that pick.

Liljegren falling because of mono and having on-ice issues is a bit different. I'm talking specifically about drafting kids falling for character concerns who multiple NHL teams flagged as an absolute no draft.

Snow repeatedly drafted people who were falling for issues the rest of the league knew about. The only time it worked out was Casey Cizikis (which was such a weird situation, that I hope we never see another like it). He drafted Ho-Sang (a known lazy kid with a very self entitled attitude, who Windsor was openly telling teams was a mess), Pilon (who wanted to quit Hockey) and Kirill Kabanov (a guy who spent his draft year drinking in his room at his billets).

If the Leafs were willing to gamble on Merkley at 25 (in the 2nd I would be annoyed but could accept the risk/reward), I would seriously question the new regimes ability to assess character and the path we are taking.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Do you consider Brent Burns/Erik Karlsson a top-pairing guy, or a top-4 guy? Because sure, they dont face the hardest comps, and sure they arent exactly good defensively. But I doubt you can make a serious case against them not being top-pairing guys.

Merkley's offense has an upside that could be in that range, coupled with strong entries/exits, and smart decision making with the puck. Although he'll never be a defensive stalwart, he'll always have that insane IQ that lets him process whats happening from the blue line forward. Its just can he take his defense from literal trash to not that bad.

"Insane IQ" ? Tbh I've not heard it praised that highly before. If things go right for Merkley, I think you're looking at a poor man's Gardiner. Nothing to get overly excited about imho.

 

[Morgs]

"Insane IQ" ? Tbh I've not heard it praised that highly before. If things go right for Merkley, I think you're looking at a poor man's Gardiner. Nothing to get overly excited about imho.

If you watch his highlight reel, the things he does are just unnatural.

 

[HC7]

Merkley is like Gardiner except better offensively, and worse defensively. Almost to an extreme.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

I won't be able to watch the draft, but I trust our management with who they select. Seems like whoever they select some will be happy and others will be upset, unless there's a big faller and we take him. Dubas was a big part of the 2015 draft and that was our best draft by far in a long time.

 

[93LEAFS]

Haha true.

Again, we all see the risk attached. Just some people are willing to make the bet, and some people don't want to be anywhere near it.

I have complete faith in Dubas to make the right decision, even if it ends up being a guy like Foudy or Noel in the first.... bleh

I have faith in any picks he makes but Merkley. For me to buy into that type of pick, I would need a pretty strong track record by the person involved. Even for a guy as respected as Yzerman and Al Murray the DeAngelo pick blew up in his face.

I know people aren't a fan of him around here these days. I could sign off on Lou taking this kid, because I would have more faith in the process, as I don't think he would overlook important aspects in the attempt to hit a home-run.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

What?

You'll be lucky if Miller even gets to #25 and if he does he's definitely worth taking

He has major upside. Big guy who can move and has good offensive skills. He also has major bust potential. More than most you can take at that position. His defensive game is not bad, but it is more raw than most in that range, and you are taking a huge risk that he has the IQ to pick up his defensive game over the next few years to be a reliable shutdown type guy in the NHL.

He reminds me a lot of JD Greenway. Better in a few areas, but generally the same strengths, weaknesses and upside. I'd expect Miller to be gone long before 72, but there is not enough there for me to see him being the Leafs' prime target at 25.

I'd take him long before Addison, Wilde and definitely Merkley though.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

it would be one thing if it was Merkley and then a bunch of very untalented players like Middleton or Mattinen or whatever in our range. But there are some legitimately good players who are projected to be more successful at the NHL level by smarter minds than mine. I wouldn't want to miss out on one of them

 

[HC7]

He has major upside. Big guy who can move and has good offensive skills. He also has major bust potential. More than most you can take at that position. His defensive game is not bad, but it is more raw than most in that range, and you are taking a huge risk that he has the IQ to pick up his defensive game over the next few years to be a reliable shutdown type guy in the NHL.

He reminds me a lot of JD Greenway. Better in a few areas, but generally the same strengths, weaknesses and upside. I'd expect Miller to be gone long before 72, but there is not enough there for me to see him being the Leafs' prime target at 25.

I'd take him long before Addison, Wilde and definitely Merkley though.

6'4 D-Men that skate well have hardly any bust potential. Worst case scenario he plays bottom pairing on any team in the league and is a system D-Man.

 

[Community]

I'm not seeing the upside with Merkley, even if he puts up points, I don't think he'll ever be strong enough defensively to be considered a top pairing guy, imho.

First off I may seem like I am pro-Merkley, but I am just keeping an open mind and won't be upset if we draft him. I also see the upside he has and think he COULD be a good NHLer if everything goes well (I think he is the biggest boom/bust prospect in the entire draft).

Teaching passable defensive skills is a lot easier to do than offensive skills. He's one of the youngest (maybe the youngest?) prospects in the draft. There is still lots of time for him to learn passable defensive skills. The bigger concern I have is that he needs to grow up and try to at least put in some effort defensively (which if the Leafs do take him is something I'm sure they will have already talked to him about at the combine and believe that he will work on the defensive side).

Whoever takes Merkley knows it will be a long-term development and it is 90% likely that he either busts or booms (not a lot of in between IMO). Is it worth it at 25? That's not my decision... However, if he had a passable defensive game and no attitude issues he would probably go 3rd overall (or maybe even 2nd).

 

[Brown Dog]

For the record, I love how Pittsburgh gets home ice advantage in the first round and pick #22 while we start on the road and get pick #25. Makes perfect sense.

 

[Sundinisagod]

If you watch his highlight reel, the things he does are just unnatural.

Too much focus on a guy I'd bet is on our do not draft list. Tomorrow night can't come soon enough.

 

[HC7]

Too much focus on a guy I'd bet is on our do not draft list. Tomorrow night can't come soon enough.

One of the youngest players in the draft, who has very good advanced stats on a bad team, that has been very good at the international level is obviously on our draft list.

This isn't a team run by Burke, or Lou.

 

[Liminality]

Haha true.

Again, we all see the risk attached. Just some people are willing to make the bet, and some people don't want to be anywhere near it.

I have complete faith in Dubas to make the right decision, even if it ends up being a guy like Foudy or Noel in the first.... bleh

I wouldn't even mind Foudy at 25. Definitely not my first pick either but there's just so many players who can fit anywhere in the first two or maybe three rounds.

 

[KMNRB]

Liljegren falling because of mono and having on-ice issues is a bit different. I'm talking specifically about drafting kids falling for character concerns who multiple NHL teams flagged as an absolute no draft.

Snow repeatedly drafted people who were falling for issues the rest of the league knew about. The only time it worked out was Casey Cizikis (which was such a weird situation, that I hope we never see another like it). He drafted Ho-Sang (a known lazy kid with a very self entitled attitude, who Windsor was openly telling teams was a mess), Pilon (who wanted to quit Hockey) and Kirill Kabanov (a guy who spent his draft year drinking in his room at his billets).

If the Leafs were willing to gamble on Merkley at 25 (in the 2nd I would be annoyed but could accept the risk/reward), I would seriously question the new regimes ability to assess character and the path we are taking.

Actually there were also character issues associated with Barzal (though his attitude issue is of a different magnitude comparing to Merkley).

 

[Sundinisagod]

One of the youngest players in the draft, who has very good advanced stats on a bad team, that has been very good at the international level is obviously on our draft list.

This isn't a team run by Burke, or Lou.

It's a team run by a guy mentored by Lou...

 

[HC7]

Liljegren falling because of mono and having on-ice issues is a bit different. I'm talking specifically about drafting kids falling for character concerns who multiple NHL teams flagged as an absolute no draft.

Snow repeatedly drafted people who were falling for issues the rest of the league knew about. The only time it worked out was Casey Cizikis (which was such a weird situation, that I hope we never see another like it). He drafted Ho-Sang (a known lazy kid with a very self entitled attitude, who Windsor was openly telling teams was a mess), Pilon (who wanted to quit Hockey) and Kirill Kabanov (a guy who spent his draft year drinking in his room at his billets).

If the Leafs were willing to gamble on Merkley at 25 (in the 2nd I would be annoyed but could accept the risk/reward), I would seriously question the new regimes ability to assess character and the path we are taking.

Someone should tell this guy about Barzal...

NYI traded up when he was on the board at 15, but I guess that doesn't fit your narrative.

 

[HC7]

We're going to draft one of the following players:

Sandin
Berggren
Miller
Dellandrea
Merkley
Wise

The top 3 are likely gone, expect one of the bottom 3.

 

[Liminality]

Someone should tell this guy about Barzal...

NYI traded up when he was on the board at 15, but I guess that doesn't fit your narrative.

I don't think I've heard of Barzal having off ice and on ice issues like Merkley. Not sure it's fair to compare them.

 

[93LEAFS]

Actually there were also character issues associated with Barzal (though his attitude issue is of a different magnitude comparing to Merkley).

Someone should tell this guy about Barzal...

NYI traded up when he was on the board at 15, but I guess that doesn't fit your narrative.

If anyone wants to find me a piece which shows where Barzal was red-flagged by multiple NHL teams. which was a known fact about both Ho-Sang and Merkley (and Pilon but not reported on). I'd support your claim. But, otherwise its a false equivlancy. Like when people talk about Nylander having "character concerns." These guys may have not been saints, cocky and occasionally moody, but they didn't have issues where a significant portion of the NHL scouting community wanted nothing to do with the,