Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[AppsSyl]

Pronman has always had a bias with skilled players. I don't think this is anything out of the ordinary for him.

To be honest it's quite disheartening to hear so many closed minded views on players who haven't even been drafted yet.

Personally, I am not closed minded. I have posted more than once that I would give Dubas the benefit of the doubt if he takes him at #25 assuming he has done his due diligence and feels as though they can rectify his issues. But I don't think there is anything wrong with the opinion some others and myself share, that we would not draft him due to said issues, given the track record of others in recent years who have had similar issues (apparently not as severe) like Ho-Sang, Murphy, etc. To me it is no different from saying I don't want to draft player X because his skating is brutal. Character and attitude are things that need to be taken into account.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Personally, I am not close minded. I have posted more than once that I would give Dubas the benefit of the doubt if he takes him at #25 assuming he has done his due diligence and feels as though they can rectify his issues. But I don't think there is anything wrong with the opinion some others and myself share, that we would not draft him due to said issues, given the track record of others in recent years who have had similar issues (apparently not as severe) like Ho-Sang, Murphy, etc. To me it is no different from saying I don't want to draft player X because his skating is brutal. Character and attitude are things that need to be taken into account.

drafting is all about weighing a player's attributes and projecting them going forward. Attitude, work ethic, and character all absolutely factor in. His general approach to the game is a huge red flag to me (and many others), and that has to be considered when projecting how likely it is that he'll be a good player for us going forward

 

[AppsSyl]

As a side note to my last post. I would love nothing more than if we take Merkley and I am proven wrong about him, and he gets his issues figured out, plays defense and lives up to his potential. Because if that is the case, in my mind, we have a top 5 talent in the draft at the position of most need.

 

[Liminality]

Personally, I am not closed minded. I have posted more than once that I would give Dubas the benefit of the doubt if he takes him at #25 assuming he has done his due diligence and feels as though they can rectify his issues. But I don't think there is anything wrong with the opinion some others and myself share, that we would not draft him due to said issues, given the track record of others in recent years who have had similar issues (apparently not as severe) like Ho-Sang, Murphy, etc. To me it is no different from saying I don't want to draft player X because his skating is brutal. Character and attitude are things that need to be taken into account.

It's more towards the people who have him on their "do not draft" list. I agree you have to take everything into consideration when evaluating these prospects.
Heck I could see Merkley dropping out of the first round cause teams think the same thing.

As a side note to my last post. I would love nothing more than if we take Merkley and I am proven wrong about him, and he gets his issues figured out, plays defense and lives up to his potential. Because if that is the case, in my mind, we have a top 5 talent in the draft at the position of most need.

That's my mindset. At this late in the first round you can take chances like these imo. Not saying it's Merkley but any prospect that displays that kind of skill.

 

[Cor]

Have you see the "Mitch Brown Tracker" that everyones talking about?

Basically it says K'Andre Miller comes away top-2 in 6 of the 9 categories. He's especially gòod at shooting, scoring chances, passing assists, passing assist chances, controlled exit percentage, and especially neutral zone defense.

Some other guys that graded exceptionally well in the majority of categories are Merkley, Smith, Addison, and Kral.

Probably the most relevant quote from it other than the charts.

"If there’s one takeaway from this article, it’s that Ty Smith and K’Andre Miller are both excellent players. Of the nine different ways we evaluated the prospects, Ty Smith was top-four in five of them. Miller was top-two in six categories, including every measure of offence and the top player in neutral zone defence."

Interesting.

Addison is a guy I’ve considered my favourite as our pick, so if he is similar in grading to him, I’d like it.

 

[Sundinisagod]

I'd take my chances with Merkley at 52 if he's there, but hard pass at 25.

If we stay at 25, my gut feeling is it will be Alexeyev.

Here is my final mock draft: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/sundinisagods-final-2018-mock-draft.2506307/

 

[AppsSyl]

I'd tale Merkley at 52 if he's there, but hard pass at 25.

If we stay at 25, my gut feeling is it will be Alexeyev.

I would not be upset at all if we ended up with Alexeyev. I really like him.

 

[Cor]

Re: Ryan Merkley.

I’m a gambler. The kid has talent for days. Obviously his defense and attitude has major flaws. There’s no player more high risk and arguably no player with more of a high reward.

It’s one of those things I’m not sure how I would feel until it happened.

May be an odd thing, but if we selected him, I’d probably pull him from the CHL. Send him to the KHL or SHL for a year. Give him that wake up call.

 

[Sundinisagod]

I would not be upset at all if we ended up with Alexeyev. I really like him.

He ticks a lot of boxes imho.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Re: Ryan Merkley.

I’m a gambler. The kid has talent for days. Obviously his defense and attitude has major flaws. There’s no player more high risk and arguably no player with more of a high reward.

It’s one of those things I’m not sure how I would feel until it happened.

May be an odd thing, but if we selected him, I’d probably pull him from the CHL. Send him to the KHL or SHL for a year. Give him that wake up call.

I'm not seeing the upside with Merkley, even if he puts up points, I don't think he'll ever be strong enough defensively to be considered a top pairing guy, imho.

 

[Fogelhund]

I'd take my chances with Merkley at 52 if he's there, but hard pass at 25.

If we stay at 25, my gut feeling is it will be Alexeyev.

Here is my final mock draft: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/sundinisagods-final-2018-mock-draft.2506307/

52 sure... but my bet, is he's either taken at #36 or #38, unless someone surprises and takes him earlier.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

As a side note to my last post. I would love nothing more than if we take Merkley and I am proven wrong about him, and he gets his issues figured out, plays defense and lives up to his potential. Because if that is the case, in my mind, we have a top 5 talent in the draft at the position of most need.

yeah ideally all we want is getting the best players and constructing the best team. I'm just concerned that Merkley will never reach his potential due to all of the red flags, and in the process we might miss out on a gem who's a little bit less skilled but infinitely more motivated to improve. you have to consider if he's worth the risk, and I am not sure he is

 

[Sundinisagod]

52 sure... but my bet, is he's either taken at #36 or #38, unless someone surprises and takes him earlier.

I don't think MTL will touch him.

 

[Morgs]

Interesting.

Addison is a guy I’ve considered my favourite as our pick, so if he is similar in grading to him, I’d like it.

Addison is my favourite too (of guys that i believe could/should make it to 25 with Miller a close 2nd at this point.

 

[AppsSyl]

yeah ideally all we want is getting the best players and constructing the best team. I'm just concerned that Merkley will never reach his potential due to all of the red flags, and in the process we might miss out on a gem who's a little bit less skilled but infinitely more motivated to improve. you have to consider if he's worth the risk, and I am not sure he is

I couldn't agree more. You have guys like Miller with huge upside that could also be a gem who I would rather take.

 

[Judas Tavares]

I just hope if we stand pat, the names don't fly off too quickly on Day 2 between 32-49. I would love to get a late 1st/early 2nd guy at 52, but usually those guys don't slip too far. Honestly sometimes I get quite jealous of those teams who pick in the 30s. They got a stud the night before in the top 10 and took a 1st round faller early on that day!

 

[Menzinger]

Re: Ryan Merkley.

I’m a gambler. The kid has talent for days. Obviously his defense and attitude has major flaws. There’s no player more high risk and arguably no player with more of a high reward.

It’s one of those things I’m not sure how I would feel until it happened.

May be an odd thing, but if we selected him, I’d probably pull him from the CHL. Send him to the KHL or SHL for a year. Give him that wake up call.

He wouldn’t be my choice, but I don’t think I’d be upset either.

If the Leafs do keep their 1st round pick I want them to swing for sky-high skill, and let their development system do its thing for him

 

[Morgs]

I'm not seeing the upside with Merkley, even if he puts up points, I don't think he'll ever be strong enough defensively to be considered a top pairing guy, imho.

If you dont see the upside, youre not watching. The guy is the best player on the ice... when hes not skating towards his own goalie.

Even then, he's not hopeless defensively. You can see the upside there too, its just a matter of:

Will he put in the work to improve? Will he put it the work to stop giving up on plays?

We dont know, and that to me is the biggest and (only) real risk. You cant have a guy do what he does far too often, but if you can get even an average/below-average defensive player out of him that puts in effort, youre talking about a steal in the late first.

 

[93LEAFS]

Re: Ryan Merkley.

I’m a gambler. The kid has talent for days. Obviously his defense and attitude has major flaws. There’s no player more high risk and arguably no player with more of a high reward.

It’s one of those things I’m not sure how I would feel until it happened.

May be an odd thing, but if we selected him, I’d probably pull him from the CHL. Send him to the KHL or SHL for a year. Give him that wake up call.

I doubt a kid is going to wake up once he starts getting paid. If he does, it will probably be after the organization that drafted him has traded him for a return worth less than the pick they used on him. For example, it might still click for Ho-Sang and DeAngelo, but the teams that drafted them either have (DeAngelo being a 19th overall pick, being traded for a 2nd) or are about to (I can't see Ho-Sang lasting under Trotz and Lou, and they aren't getting a 27th overall back). The closest example of a success who had this many toxic rumors about them is Phil Kessel, who has still managed to find his way to piss off multiple coaches and is likely going to his 4th organization in the near future. Phil was also in a position where playing little to no D with limited compete can be somewhat hidden.

Who knows where he'll end up. The belief is Guelph has been trying to dump him since the off-season started.

I also don't think he'd play in Europe. Any Swedish coach trying to avoid losing in a relegation/promotion system will just ship him down to J-20's.

 

[Fogelhund]

I don't think MTL will touch him.

They've got four second rounders. It actually makes quite a bit of sense for them to throw a pick at a lottery ticket.

What do you think @93LEAFS If you are Montreal, with the #3, and four, second rounders.... would you consider throwing one of the second rounders at Merkeley, knowing that the odds he becomes the guy the optimists think he can, are small?

 

[93LEAFS]

If you dont see the upside, youre not watching. The guy is the best player on the ice... when hes not skating towards his own goalie.

Even then, he's not hopeless defensively. You can see the upside there too, its just a matter of:

Will he put in the work to improve? Will he put it the work to stop giving up on plays?

We dont know, and that to me is the biggest and (only) real risk. You cant have a guy do what he does far too often, but if you can get even an average/below-average defensive player out of him that puts in effort, youre talking about a steal in the late first.

He also blames teammates for all faults and loses control and effort level when they make a mistake, but just quits on plays himself. He's also feuded with pretty much every coach he's encountered.

He's shown no signs of putting in the work to improve his defensive game in two years in the OHL. He still plays defence at a AAA level.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I couldn't agree more. You have guys like Miller with huge upside that could also be a gem who I would rather take.

obviously i'm not even close to an expert, but I think that the Leafs are in a spot as a franchise that making the far safer pick with slightly less of a reward is much more desirable than praying for Merkley to pan out. Leafs aren't exactly starved for high-end offensive players that they need to pull a Garth Snow here and risk ending up with nothing. Obviously no prospect is a guarantee, but I'd much rather try to aim for a highly skilled and smart player who has a good chance of panning out, as it would probably help the team more going forward.

I know i'm basically preaching to the choir with that and I apologize, but yeah

 

[Morgs]

He also blames teammates for all faults and loses control and effort level when they make a mistake, but just quits on plays himself. He's also feuded with pretty much every coach he's encountered.

He's shown no signs of putting in the work to improve his defensive game in two years in the OHL. He still plays defence at a AAA level.

Yeah, I'm aware and i see the risks attached to him. But i also see the upside he has to be thought of as a top-5 pick come redraft day 2025.

You mix his skill with a Connor Brown type attitude and you have Ghost.

 

[Sundinisagod]

If you dont see the upside, youre not watching. The guy is the best player on the ice... when hes not skating towards his own goalie.

Even then, he's not hopeless defensively. You can see the upside there too, its just a matter of:

Will he put in the work to improve? Will he put it the work to stop giving up on plays?

We dont know, and that to me is the biggest and (only) real risk. You cant have a guy do what he does far too often, but if you can get even an average/below-average defensive player out of him that puts in effort, youre talking about a steal in the late first.

I see the offensive ability, but I'm not betting on his all around game being good enough to be a top pairing defenseman...top 4 sure, so that's just my opinion but I wouldn't call that a high upside pick.

 

[Liminality]

He also blames teammates for all faults and loses control and effort level when they make a mistake, but just quits on plays himself. He's also feuded with pretty much every coach he's encountered.

He's shown no signs of putting in the work to improve his defensive game in two years in the OHL. He still plays defence at a AAA level.

I'd agree he has a lot of red flags and wouldn't be my first choice at 25, but if you can fix some of those issues? That's a very skilled player.

I see the offensive ability, but I'm not betting on his all around game being good enough to be a top pairing defenseman...top 4 sure, so that's just my opinion but I wouldn't call that a high upside pick.

Getting a top 4 RHD PP specialist is still quite the grab for a late first round pick imo.