Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft

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Henkka

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Jan 31, 2004
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Ken Holland just talked about this for Art Regner. Tanking doesn't help anymore. Generational players will go in TOP 1-2-3 for lottery winners. Philadelphia tried to get in the playoffs, failed by small margin and got 2nd overall. Even if you suck for last position, it does quarantee only 4th overall for you like it did for Colorado.
 

Rzombo4 prez

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May 17, 2012
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Ken Holland just talked about this for Art Regner. Tanking doesn't help anymore. Generational players will go in TOP 1-2-3 for lottery winners. Philadelphia tried to get in the playoffs, failed by small margin and got 2nd overall. Even if you suck for last position, it does quarantee only 4th overall for you like it did for Colorado.

It does still help. You cannot act like odds don't matter. You are correct though that you aren't guaranteed a top three pick or a generational player. Sadly, rebuilding on the fly isn't guaranteed to work either.
 

Flowah

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Nov 30, 2009
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What? We drafted 9th... in a year where we **** the bed.

If the 2018 draft was this year... we wouldn't be in line to get any of the top guys.

We'd be bemoaning the fact that Dahlin, little Svech, Merkley, etc. all went to other teams and we had to take a second tier guy.

Being last, if next year's lottery is the same, guarantees a top4 pick and ~50% at a top2. That'd be pretty nice.
 

Henkka

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It does still help. You cannot act like odds don't matter. You are correct though that you aren't guaranteed a top three pick or a generational player. Sadly, rebuilding on the fly isn't guaranteed to work either.

So if both are not guaranteed, why not pick the other one. More and more is will sound that grass is just greener always on the other option.
 

Rzombo4 prez

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So if both are not guaranteed, why not pick the other one. More and more is will sound that grass is just greener always on the other option.

We are struggling right now because we lack elite talent. More often than not, elite talent is found at the top of the first round. Rebuilding on the fly doesn't increase our odds of drafting towards the top of the first round. Odds matter. Just ask someone who owns a casino.

I am all ears if you have other ideas on how we may acquire young elite talent.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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Being last, if next year's lottery is the same, guarantees a top4 pick and ~50% at a top2. That'd be pretty nice.

Pretty sure it's a ~50% chance at top 3, but just a ~34% chance at top 2.

But anywho, Holland citing something that had a 2.4% chance of happening as justification for trying to get in the playoffs is funny... yeah, totally repeatable! :sarcasm:
 

HisNoodliness

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It does still help. You cannot act like odds don't matter. You are correct though that you aren't guaranteed a top three pick or a generational player. Sadly, rebuilding on the fly isn't guaranteed to work either.

The other thing worth noting is that while in last place you're not guaranteed first overall you're still guaranteed fourth overall. In second last you're guaranteed fifth overall. Having the best odds to pick top 3 and a guaranteed top 5 pick is a great deal. That's what the Red Wings need.

The 2018 draft looks like the second or third defenseman taken could still be a franchise guy...so if we're guaranteed a top 5 pick we're hopefully getting a franchise D. We might not be lucky enough to get Dahlin but having the best odds at him and a guaranteed top 5 pick is way better than rebuilding on the fly which has almost chance of working unless we get absurdly lucky and move up from 9 to 1 in the lottery anyway.

I just don't see the argument for rebuild on the fly at all. We need elite talent. To get elite talent you have to draft well. It's easiest to draft well at the top of the draft. The lower you finish in the standings the higher you pick (on average...lottery obviously randomizes this slightly but any rebuilding strategy has to be the one that's most likely to work). Therefore to rebuild you should finish as low as possible in the standings... That seems really straight forward. After you get elite players in the draft you then try to build around them with your other, less-high picks, trades and free agency. If you do that successfully then you get to win 3 stanley cups before cap hell makes you trade away Panarin.
 

Henkka

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The other thing worth noting is that while in last place you're not guaranteed first overall you're still guaranteed fourth overall. In second last you're guaranteed fifth overall. Having the best odds to pick top 3 and a guaranteed top 5 pick is a great deal. That's what the Red Wings need.

Nah.

We don't need that kind of losing culture. Being at bottom3 you really need to be abysmal and lose a lot of hockey games.

It causes bad habits to key propects more than it gives an advantage at drafting.
 

Henkka

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It does still help. You cannot act like odds don't matter. You are correct though that you aren't guaranteed a top three pick or a generational player. Sadly, rebuilding on the fly isn't guaranteed to work either.

Depth drafting is what separates future contenders of non-contenders.

Tanking or not-tanking doesn't.
 

silkyjohnson50

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Jan 10, 2007
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Ken Holland just talked about this for Art Regner. Tanking doesn't help anymore. Generational players will go in TOP 1-2-3 for lottery winners. Philadelphia tried to get in the playoffs, failed by small margin and got 2nd overall. Even if you suck for last position, it does quarantee only 4th overall for you like it did for Colorado.

Lol.

And they're still limiting Smith's PP time for cap purposes.
 

Flowah

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Nov 30, 2009
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Pretty sure it's a ~50% chance at top 3, but just a ~34% chance at top 2.

But anywho, Holland citing something that had a 2.4% chance of happening as justification for trying to get in the playoffs is funny... yeah, totally repeatable! :sarcasm:

Huh..

I dunno what site I got my numbers then. Though a Google search does show some sites have different odds than what the NHL.com link says. Weird.

Nah.

We don't need that kind of losing culture. Being at bottom3 you really need to be abysmal and lose a lot of hockey games.

It causes bad habits to key propects more than it gives an advantage at drafting.
Doesn't seem to have mattered for Chicago or Pittsburgh.

Do you think "losing culture" is going to haunt Toronto?

Is being bottom 3 really that much different from being bottom 5, which we already were last season?
 

HisNoodliness

The Karate Kid and ASP Kai
Jun 29, 2014
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Nah.

We don't need that kind of losing culture. Being at bottom3 you really need to be abysmal and lose a lot of hockey games.

It causes bad habits to key propects more than it gives an advantage at drafting.

Give me a losing culture and good players all day over a winning culture and the garbage we're collecting. Good players can fix a losing culture (by winning). The garbage Kenny is bringing is going to lose no matter what our culture is like.
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
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Nah.

We don't need that kind of losing culture. Being at bottom3 you really need to be abysmal and lose a lot of hockey games.

It causes bad habits to key propects more than it gives an advantage at drafting.
You do realize that, after going 9-0 in the shootout, Detroit finished exactly 9 points above the 3rd worst team in the league?

If they trade Green and/or Nyquist for additional picks, they're absolutely right there contending for a top-3 draft slot.
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
10,853
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Ken Holland just talked about this for Art Regner. Tanking doesn't help anymore. Generational players will go in TOP 1-2-3 for lottery winners. Philadelphia tried to get in the playoffs, failed by small margin and got 2nd overall. Even if you suck for last position, it does quarantee only 4th overall for you like it did for Colorado.
The lottery didn't remove the benefits of tanking. It simply removed the guarantee of a given draft slot in a given year.

Which shouldn't matter all that much to a team that will need several high draft picks to really turn things around. Being one of the worst 3-5 teams in the league by record still holds pretty good odds of ending up with a top 3-5 draft pick.

If they're going to stink for the next 2, 3, or even 5 years...why not get the best 'reward' you can for being a team that's lousy to watch?
 

ChadS

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Jun 30, 2009
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A "winning culture" doesn't mean much if you never get back to winning. And the way it looks right now, that ain't happening anytime soon.
 
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iDangleDangle

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Jan 2, 2014
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"Winning culture" is one of the worst sports cliches of all time.

Winning creates winning culture. Winning requires elite pieces.

How much "winning culture" has this team cultivated since 2010 with all those first round exits?
 
Jul 30, 2005
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I mean, what is location, really
"Winning culture" is one of the worst sports cliches of all time.

Winning creates winning culture. Winning requires elite pieces.

How much "winning culture" has this team cultivated since 2010 with all those first round exits?
Can nobody see the post hoc? Just because you won games and you have a good organizational culture doesn't mean winning those games caused the good organizational culture. That's just... voodoo. That's religious thinking.

"Winning culture" is an empty phrase. It's just used to describe some unspecified psychological reason why the winners won, and usually in the following format:

How do you think this team won? Well, they've got a winning culture. But how do you know they've got a winning culture? Well, because they won, so they must.
 
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Orthodox Caveman

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Sep 12, 2006
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Already getting excited for next years draft if the Wings don't mess it up by winning themselves into a worse position and prolonging this purgatory. Yes it is early and I know even less about the 2018 prospects than 2017..... but just going by where Detroit is likely to pick especially if the wheels fall off and how deeper the next draft is supposed to be..... is the most exciting news for me as a fan in several years. I just don't think last season was an outlier. They are a slipping.

How much better does our defense/defensive depth look with a Dahlin/McIsaac/insert other elite prospect? Especially considering how much it would move our current players and prospects to their correct projected slots in the line up?

Also intriguing is the possibility of landing Andrei Svechnikov as it makes our winger depth look pretty good alongside Mantha, Rasmussen (unless he plays center), E. Svechnikov and Anthanasiou. It would make one of Tatar/Nyquist expendable if they're still here. If this was the case you'd think the Wings would try to trade whatever picks/players to get another first round pick and draft a defenseman.

I do however have a feeling we'll miss out on Dahlin somehow.
 
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