GDT: 2018 NHL Draft Weekend

[HenriquesJawLine]

Bernard

 

[MNDevilsfan]

Marek is right more often than not on his prospect takes. Good to see for sure.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Unless I am misunderstanding Steven, the point isn’t that Miller is a big boom pick while Ty is a safe pick.

He sees a lot of upside in both players and he had them ranked pretty close. I think in his mind you couldn’t go wrong with either?

 

[StevenToddIves]

so was miller's dropping unfounded? not saying that as a rhetorical question, but did he drop because his sample of work AS a defenseman is small?

Miller didn't "drop" per se, he went about where many expected him to go. Obviously the Rangers really coveted him and had a feeling that another team did, as well -- they traded a second rounder just to move up a few spots and grab him. The questions concerning K'Andre never had anything to do with sample size or bust potential, it's just the large gap between where he is now and his talent ceiling. There's far more projectibility (if you'll allow me to make up a word) with a Miller or a Wilde than there is for a Bouchard or a Dobson or a Smith.

 

[OmNomNom]

Miller didn't "drop" per se, he went about where many expected him to go. Obviously the Rangers really coveted him and had a feeling that another team did, as well -- they traded a second rounder just to move up a few spots and grab him. The questions concerning K'Andre never had anything to do with sample size or bust potential, it's just the large gap between where he is now and his talent ceiling. There's far more projectibility (if you'll allow me to make up a word) with a Miller or a Wilde than there is for a Bouchard or a Dobson or a Smith.

i'll one up you - trajectability - since we don't know where his trajectory will land him as a professional

 

[StevenToddIves]

Unless I am misunderstanding Steven, the point isn’t that Miller is a big boom pick while Ty is a safe pick.

He sees a lot of upside in both players and he had them ranked pretty close. I think in his mind you couldn’t go wrong with either?

Absolutely.

Let's completely invent a scale of one to ten. Then let's put Miller's talent ceiling as a 8.5 and Smith's at an 8.2. But Smith's chances of hitting that 8.2 is higher than Miller's hitting 8.2, much less 8.5.

Both Smith and Miller offer extremely high upsides as a dynamic 1D. While Smith is a "safer" pick, he's still a potential all-star. And while Miller is a "riskier" pick, I would still say K'Andre's "floor" is somewhere in the ballpark of the "ceiling" for Filip Johansson, who Minnesota somehow took just two picks after Miller was selected.

So, that's the logic behind why I'm so high on both Smith and Miller. Though I'm quite confident (along with the rest of the free world) that Rasmus Dahlin will be the best defenseman taken in the 2018 draft, both Smith and Miller have a chance of one-day being the second best.

I would say in terms of talent "floor", the highest in the draft were:
1)Dahlin
2)Bouchard
3)Smith
4)Dobson

But again, I ranked Smith over Bouchard. Why? Because his ceiling, in my mind, is appreciably higher. This is by no means a knock on Bouchard, whom I think will be an excellent NHL defenseman for the Oilers. I'm just a sucker for dynamic upside.

 

[StevenToddIves]

i'll one up you - trajectability - since we don't know where his trajectory will land him as a professional

I have been, without a doubt, one-upped.

 

[Nubmer6]

Absolutely.

Let's completely invent a scale of one to ten. Then let's put Miller's talent ceiling as a 8.5 and Smith's at an 8.2. But Smith's chances of hitting that 8.2 is higher than Miller's hitting 8.2, much less 8.5.

Both Smith and Miller offer extremely high upsides as a dynamic 1D. While Smith is a "safer" pick, he's still a potential all-star. And while Miller is a "riskier" pick, I would still say K'Andre's "floor" is somewhere in the ballpark of the "ceiling" for Filip Johansson, who Minnesota somehow took just two picks after Miller was selected.

So, that's the logic behind why I'm so high on both Smith and Miller. Though I'm quite confident (along with the rest of the free world) that Rasmus Dahlin will be the best defenseman taken in the 2018 draft, both Smith and Miller have a chance of one-day being the second best.

I would say in terms of talent "floor", the highest in the draft were:
1)Dahlin
2)Bouchard
3)Smith
4)Dobson

But again, I ranked Smith over Bouchard. Why? Because his ceiling, in my mind, is appreciably higher. This is by no means a knock on Bouchard, whom I think will be an excellent NHL defenseman for the Oilers. I'm just a sucker for dynamic upside.

With your description, I probably would have picked Smith over Miller. I don't want to get TOO conservative, but in this case I'd rather have the slightly safer bet.

 

[The Wumpus]

With your description, I probably would have picked Smith over Miller. I don't want to get TOO conservative, but in this case I'd rather have the slightly safer bet.

I think a riskier pick like Miller was perfect for a team like NYR with three 1st rounders, whereas a somewhat safer pick like Smith was better for NJD who had only one pick in the first 100. If we miss on that one, we could easily end up with nothing to show for the entire draft, which would be awful for a rebuilding team.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I absolutely agree with both of you guys. As much as I love Miller, if I'm Shero I probably would have taken Smith as well. With one pick in the first four rounds, he was just the smartest pick. I also would have strongly considered Veleno, whom I think will be a better C than Kotkaniemi (taken #3 overall, 27 picks before Veleno). I said earlier in these threads that the absolute dream scenario for the Devils was both Smith and Veleno falling to #17, and it actually happened.

Ultimately, the Devils made the best possible pick -- getting a potential star 1D, a huge organizational need.

 

[Nubmer6]

I absolutely agree with both of you guys. As much as I love Miller, if I'm Shero I probably would have taken Smith as well. With one pick in the first four rounds, he was just the smartest pick. I also would have strongly considered Veleno, whom I think will be a better C than Kotkaniemi (taken #3 overall, 27 picks before Veleno). I said earlier in these threads that the absolute dream scenario for the Devils was both Smith and Veleno falling to #17, and it actually happened.

Ultimately, the Devils made the best possible pick -- getting a potential star 1D, a huge organizational need.

I understand your infatuation with Miller, but whoda thunk Smith would fall past Colorado? I didn't think there was a chance in hell we'd get him. It just stings a bit that the Rags used OUR pick to trade up and get him. On top of that, our pick was used to snag Tychonick whom some had going in the late 1st round.

 

[MadDevil]

Miller seems like more of a swing for the fences type of pick, which makes sense for the Rangers who you figure will probably do what we did at the previous two years in adding a bunch of players at the draft. They can afford to take some home run swings in there.

 

[MadDevil]

Way to step right into the Rangers/Islanders rivalry kid.

 

[MichaelJ]

Way to step right into the Rangers/Islanders rivalry kid.

Rangers have really screwed the pooch. Kravtsov is incredibly talented, but I’d be much more nervous about them if they had Mittelstadt and Wahlstrom in the pipeline and used their other picks better.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Devils 2018 NHL Draftee Scouting Report by Julie Robenhymer

"We thought Ty would have been gone by the time he got to us at 17," said Paul Castron, Devils director of amateur scouting. "We were really excited to be able to get someone of his talent and character with our first round pick. Before the draft, we had talked with a lot of people who've worked with him at Hockey Canada and his junior team in Spokane and everyone just raves about him, not only as a good hockey player, but as a good person and a good teammate too. He just fits our identity with the way we want to play and the culture we want in our locker room."

 

[OmNomNom]

Devils 2018 NHL Draftee Scouting Report by Julie Robenhymer

"We thought Ty would have been gone by the time he got to us at 17," said Paul Castron, Devils director of amateur scouting. "We were really excited to be able to get someone of his talent and character with our first round pick. Before the draft, we had talked with a lot of people who've worked with him at Hockey Canada and his junior team in Spokane and everyone just raves about him, not only as a good hockey player, but as a good person and a good teammate too. He just fits our identity with the way we want to play and the culture we want in our locker room."

i love julie - great writeup as always

@Devils Dominion also has a crush on her

 

[StevenToddIves]

Rangers have really screwed the pooch. Kravtsov is incredibly talented, but I’d be much more nervous about them if they had Mittelstadt and Wahlstrom in the pipeline and used their other picks better.

Agreed. I'm not one to go out of my way to put down another team, but Kravtsov over Wahlstrom was a bit puzzling. Not as bad as Andersson over Mittelstadt (or Necas or Vilardi etc etc), but still. I would have to day that the Rangers European scouts have dominion over their North American scouts in high management. They also took Lundqvist too high at 28 and Lindbom waaaaay too high at 39.

 

[Brodeur]

I wasn't too surprised by the Lundkvist pick, he seemed like he was getting some late momentum into the late 1st / early 2nd. With Detroit having picks (and a big need for RHD) at 30/33/36, I could understand if they didn't think he'd be there at 39.

 

[nugg]

i love julie - great writeup as always

@Devils Dominion also has a crush on her

Hey, I liked her even back when she was on Ecklund's site

 

[Emperoreddy]

Rangers draft definitely seemed very polarizing among the neutrals. Some people seem to love it, but others definitely thought they screwed ip

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

Rangers draft definitely seemed very polarizing among the neutrals. Some people seem to love it, but others definitely thought they screwed ip

I think the most common comments I saw was that it was a missed opportunity rather than a bad draft. Miller should be good in the future but people didn't like giving up a 2nd to jump 4 spots. 28 was somewhat of a reach. Then they used 39 on a goalie. And people didn't really like what they did after that. The first rounders will make the draft a success or not and how you feel about Kravstov vs. Wahlstrom. I can't imagine the anxiety fans will be feeling about Wahlstrom, they'll never hear the end of it if he lights it up.

 

[devilsblood]

I think the most common comments I saw was that it was a missed opportunity rather than a bad draft. Miller should be good in the future but people didn't like giving up a 2nd to jump 4 spots. 28 was somewhat of a reach. Then they used 39 on a goalie. And people didn't really like what they did after that. The first rounders will make the draft a success or not and how you feel about Kravstov vs. Wahlstrom. I can't imagine the anxiety fans will be feeling about Wahlstrom, they'll never hear the end of it if he lights it up.

Given Rag's had 3 1st rounders, 2 2nd's and 2 3rd's I don't know why people are upset about losing one of the 2nd's. As I was a big Miller guy, I very much dislike that he went to the Rag's.

As per the wingers, I'm wary of putting much credence in a short burst of offense, but when a kid has a big playoffs in a men's league? That's noteworthy. What little I know of Wahlstrom is a very impressive stat line, and in Ty Smith's Shift by Shift, Wahlstrom burn's past him for a power move scoring oppurtunity. I found that impressive.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Kravtsov is unbelievably talented, but so is Wahlstrom. And Wahlstrom was the best pure goal-scorer in the draft aside from Svechnikov. It's going to be fun to watch those two kids develop on rival teams, that's for certain.

Of course I liked the Miller pick. And I thought the Rangers did an outstanding job in the third round with Ragnarsson and Keane. So, whatever happens with the rest of the picks, the Rangers had a very good draft. My only caveat is that it could have been much better. Imagine if the Rangers had taken Veleno over Lundkvist and Wilde or McLeod over Lindbom? People would be calling this the best Rangers draft in history. But to me, Lundqvist was very risky for the first round, he has a high upside but is no guarantee to ever make the NHL unless he really improves his strength and defensive play. And Lindbom at 39 was just absurd, especially considering some of the names on the board.

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

 

[glenwo2]

B-MINUS, though?