Speculation: 2018 NHL Draft Talk :)

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Negan4Coach

Fantastic and Stochastic
Aug 31, 2017
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Always BPA...it's just that sometimes you have to hone the definition of BPA to "best player available at the position of greatest need". Right now we need a dynamic scoring forward, best if it was a centerman. However, we just aren't that deep on the right side on defense and if Dobson, Bouchard, or Wilde is available and we've deemed them BPA, you take 'em. Just because Ron Francis wasn't able to pull off a trade involving one of our young defensive assets doesn't mean it doesn't happen.

Since the Canes are apparently completely incapable of discerning who the actual BPA is, I'm good with shopping for need.
 

NotOpie

"Puck don't lie"
Jun 12, 2006
9,218
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North Carolina
I thought drafting Haydn Fleury over Nylander and Ehlers was viewed as a "draft for need"?
My sense is that was one of those, "best player available at the position of greatest need". I'm still pretty high on Fleury. I've just chosen to put my blinders on when it comes to the context of missed opportunity.
 

Chan790

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Jan 24, 2012
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I thought drafting Haydn Fleury over Nylander and Ehlers was viewed as a "draft for need"?

It was. At the time, our blueline pipeline was barren and our defense was a wreck. Our forward core was better and we had a solid forward pipeline. (All of whom busted.)

Not knowing what we'd have today, or that we'd draft Hanifin a year later, it was definitely a "need" pick. People hated it immediately.

Not having foresight, I'd have been pissed with another F pick. Goes to show the danger of picking for need.
 

MinJaBen

Canes Sharks Boy
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Not saying I agree with the methodology or the premise, but there is an interesting piece over on theAthletic.com on how successful teams are at drafting using a more quantitative analysis of the performance. The author identified two areas of measure: "teams' ability to complete the baseline task of drafting players who can play in the NHL, and teams' ability to draft young, potential core players." He goes into more detail how he measures those two areas in the article.

What he found as results pertaining to the Canes had the team ranked...

#4 - Carolina Hurricanes
01-car-draft.png

The Hurricanes have gotten a lot of good, young, smart players and have hit on a high percentage of their picks for a while now. Noah Hanifin was an all-star this season, while Jaccob Slavin remains one of the more underrated defencemen in the league. The only thing holding the 'Canes out of the top-three has been their limited ability to find premium scoring talent. The closest they've gotten is with Aho, who has 25 goals already this season.

They were behind the Ducks, the Jets, and the Lightning, in that order. The year range of drafts considered was 2011 through 2015.

From worst to first, ranking how each NHL team performs at the draft
 

My Special Purpose

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Apr 8, 2008
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Not saying I agree with the methodology or the premise, but there is an interesting piece over on theAthletic.com on how successful teams are at drafting using a more quantitative analysis of the performance. The author identified two areas of measure: "teams' ability to complete the baseline task of drafting players who can play in the NHL, and teams' ability to draft young, potential core players." He goes into more detail how he measures those two areas in the article.

What he found as results pertaining to the Canes had the team ranked...



They were behind the Ducks, the Jets, and the Lightning, in that order. The year range of drafts considered was 2011 through 2015.

From worst to first, ranking how each NHL team performs at the draft

We'd probably be No. 2 (or even No. 1) if Frederik Andersen signed here. We'd also probably have made the playoffs the past three seasons. I know we're grumpy about it, but looking back, that's probably the single most important factor in the mess we're in.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
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We'd probably be No. 2 (or even No. 1) if Frederik Andersen signed here. We'd also probably have made the playoffs the past three seasons. I know we're grumpy about it, but looking back, that's probably the single most important factor in the mess we're in.

The study MJB showed was only 2011-2015, so Andersen wouldn't have counted even if he signed since he was a 2010 draftee. I agree with the rest of what you posted though.
 

MinJaBen

Canes Sharks Boy
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The study MJB showed was only 2011-2015, so Andersen wouldn't have counted even if he signed since he was a 2010 draftee. I agree with the rest of what you posted though.
Yeah, they bump the year back to 2010, and we get Skinner and Faulk and Anderssen in that draft. That doesn't hurt us in the author's analysis.
 

GoldiFox

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Apr 21, 2014
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The Draft Analyst | 2018 NHL Mock Draft: Picks 1-31 (March)

RankPlayerGoalsDrafted Overall
1Alex Ovechkin, LW421st (2004)
2Patrik Laine, RW412nd (2016)
3Evgeni Malkin, C 402nd (2004)
4Eric Staal, C 372nd (2003)
5Tyler Seguin, C 372nd (2010)
6William Karlsson, C 3553rd (2011)
7Nikita Kucherov, RW3358th (2011)
8Nathan MacKinnon, C 321st (2013)
9Connor McDavid, C 311st (2015)
10Anders Lee, RW 33152nd (2009)
11Taylor Hall, LW311st (2010)
12John Tavares, C 311st (2009)
13James van Riemsdyk, LW312nd (2007)
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Saw this table in the article above. It's 10 days old so the data isn't exact but the top-13 scorers are still the same.

10 of the top 13 goal scorers are either #1 Overall or #2 Overall picks. Kind of drives home the point that picking perpetually in the 5-15 range doesn't cut it.
 

CandyCanes

Caniac turned Jerkiac
Jan 8, 2015
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The Draft Analyst | 2018 NHL Mock Draft: Picks 1-31 (March)

RankPlayerGoalsDrafted Overall
1Alex Ovechkin, LW421st (2004)
2Patrik Laine, RW412nd (2016)
3Evgeni Malkin, C 402nd (2004)
4Eric Staal, C 372nd (2003)
5Tyler Seguin, C 372nd (2010)
6William Karlsson, C 3553rd (2011)
7Nikita Kucherov, RW3358th (2011)
8Nathan MacKinnon, C 321st (2013)
9Connor McDavid, C 311st (2015)
10Anders Lee, RW 33152nd (2009)
11Taylor Hall, LW311st (2010)
12John Tavares, C 311st (2009)
13James van Riemsdyk, LW312nd (2007)
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Saw this table in the article above. It's 10 days old so the data isn't exact but the top-13 scorers are still the same.

10 of the top 13 goal scorers are either #1 Overall or #2 Overall picks. Kind of drives home the point that picking perpetually in the 5-15 range doesn't cut it.

I cry inside every time I keep getting reminded that Eric is top 5 in goal scoring this year.
 

My Special Purpose

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Apr 8, 2008
8,151
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The Draft Analyst | 2018 NHL Mock Draft: Picks 1-31 (March)

RankPlayerGoalsDrafted Overall
1Alex Ovechkin, LW421st (2004)
2Patrik Laine, RW412nd (2016)
3Evgeni Malkin, C 402nd (2004)
4Eric Staal, C 372nd (2003)
5Tyler Seguin, C 372nd (2010)
6William Karlsson, C 3553rd (2011)
7Nikita Kucherov, RW3358th (2011)
8Nathan MacKinnon, C 321st (2013)
9Connor McDavid, C 311st (2015)
10Anders Lee, RW 33152nd (2009)
11Taylor Hall, LW311st (2010)
12John Tavares, C 311st (2009)
13James van Riemsdyk, LW312nd (2007)
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Saw this table in the article above. It's 10 days old so the data isn't exact but the top-13 scorers are still the same.

10 of the top 13 goal scorers are either #1 Overall or #2 Overall picks. Kind of drives home the point that picking perpetually in the 5-15 range doesn't cut it.

True, but four of those 10 have been traded. It's possible to get these guys, even if you're not in the Top 2, but it takes guts.
 
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