2018 NHL Draft Prospects

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Dec 21, 2009
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Here's my initial rankings for the 2018 draft going into this season. I'll leave it at 45.

1. Rasmus Dahlin
2. Andrei Svechnikov
3. Adam Boqvist
4. Bode Wilde
5. Joe Veleno
6. Jared McIsaac
7. Alex Khovanov
8. Jett Woo
9. Filip Zadina
10. Ryan Merkley
11. Joel Farabee
12. Ty Smith
13. Jake Wise
14. Jesperi Kotkaniemi
15. Anderson MacDonald
16. K'Andre Miller
17. Ryan McLeod
18. Quinn Hughes
19. Isac Lundestrom
20. Evan Bouchard
21. Brady Tkachuk
22. Jacob Olofsson
23. Grigori Denisenko
24. Mattias Samuelsson
25. Vitaly Kravtsov
26. Philipp Kurashev
27. Benoit Olivier Grouix
28. Jesse Ylonen
29. Dominik Bokk
30. Oliver Wahlstrom
31. Danila Galenyuk
32. Jakub Skarek
33. Nando Eggenberger
34. Ty Emberson
35. Adam Ginning
36. Akil Thomas
37. Rasmus Kupari
38. Allan McShane
39. Nico Gross
40. Ty Dellandrea
41. Jakub Lauko
42. Keegan Karki
43. Jack McBain
44. David Gustafsson
45. Jacob Ingham

1, 2 is obvious. Outside of 1, 2, Boqvist is my favorite player in this draft. He legitimately might be the next Erik Karlsson. I know thats said a lot about many players, but the skill-set is so similar. Big fan of McIsaac. I think he's one of the few that could break up 1-2, if he has a great season. Awesome two way potential. Merkley is fun to watch. I have him a little lower than some might have him, but he easily could be top 5 if he cleans up his defense. Kotkaniemi is probably the lone really good Finn in a weak draft for Finland. Miller is Brady Skjei size, skating, athleticism starter kit. He's not that good right now, but very projectable. I think Kravtsov could move further up this list with a big season in the KHL. Skarek is the top goalie in this draft. I'm not sure he's as good as any of the top few goalies in the 2017 draft, but he has shown very well. McBain played off the radar this year. Some really like his game, he could be a big riser.

Good list, thanks Pav.

Interesting how you have Veleno still as the second best forward whereas he has dropped in many peoples eyes including my own. Will be interesting to see what he can do next year though. Looks pretty good as its a very hard draft to predict at this point, I do strongly feel Tkachuk goes higher though.

Well, Veleno had a long way to fall. He was an exceptional player with huge expectations. Just because he didn't fulfill those expectations doesn't mean he isn't very good. He was excellent in the Mem Cup from what I saw. Helps that he's one of few exciting centers in this draft.
 

FinnishSniper

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Here's my initial rankings for the 2018 draft going into this season. I'll leave it at 45.

1. Rasmus Dahlin
2. Andrei Svechnikov
3. Adam Boqvist
4. Bode Wilde
5. Joe Veleno
6. Jared McIsaac
7. Alex Khovanov
8. Jett Woo
9. Filip Zadina
10. Ryan Merkley
11. Joel Farabee
12. Ty Smith
13. Jake Wise
14. Jesperi Kotkaniemi
15. Anderson MacDonald
16. K'Andre Miller
17. Ryan McLeod
18. Quinn Hughes
19. Isac Lundestrom
20. Evan Bouchard
21. Brady Tkachuk
22. Jacob Olofsson
23. Grigori Denisenko
24. Mattias Samuelsson
25. Vitaly Kravtsov
26. Philipp Kurashev
27. Benoit Olivier Grouix
28. Jesse Ylonen
29. Dominik Bokk
30. Oliver Wahlstrom
31. Danila Galenyuk
32. Jakub Skarek
33. Nando Eggenberger
34. Ty Emberson
35. Adam Ginning
36. Akil Thomas
37. Rasmus Kupari
38. Allan McShane
39. Nico Gross
40. Ty Dellandrea
41. Jakub Lauko
42. Keegan Karki
43. Jack McBain
44. David Gustafsson
45. Jacob Ingham

Kotkaniemi is probably the lone really good Finn in a weak draft for Finland.

Rasmus Kupari will rise in to the top 20 next season mark my words! He has a special kind of skill and speed to his game that for example Kotkaniemi doesn't have. I could also see Kotkaniemi rise into the top 10.
I also am in love with Boqvist's game. The kid also has an incredible shot!
 

Gigantor The Goalie

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32. Jakub Skarek
33. Nando Eggenberger
34. Ty Emberson
35. Adam Ginning
36. Akil Thomas
37. Rasmus Kupari
38. Allan McShane
39. Nico Gross
40. Ty Dellandrea
41. Jakub Lauko
42. Keegan Karki
43. Jack McBain
44. David Gustafsson
45. Jacob Ingham

I like seeing the acknowledgement of the kind of prospect Keegan Karki is along with Jacob Ingham. Both are usually not mentioned in lists like this. Still though I wouldn't have Karki this high unless you believe he's fixed his footwork because right now he's having issues knowing where his feet are.
 

JK2K

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Thomas, McShane, Dellandrea and Mcbain out of the first round?
Looks a little Eurocentric for my taste.
McBain in top 15
Thomas in top 20
McShane and Dellandrea late first rounders.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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Interesting how you have Veleno still as the second best forward whereas he has dropped in many peoples eyes including my own. Will be interesting to see what he can do next year though. Looks pretty good as its a very hard draft to predict at this point, I do strongly feel Tkachuk goes higher though.

Veleno is still pretty good. He's maybe not an ES player, and the CHL has botched their usage of that rule recently, but he's still one of the best forwards in this draft. Very productive, well-rounded skill-set.

And while I think Tkachuk is good, I kind of regard him similarly to Alex Nylander. People remember his brother being under-drafted, and that makes them want to overdraft him. He was good for the NTDP 18 team from what I saw this season, but I didn't think he was even the best player on that team, and I don't believe I had any players on that team in my 2017 first round or maybe I had one. It was a weak year, and he didn't particularly stand out. He misses the 2017 draft by one day. He's a first rounder I think, but I think it would way over drafting him to have him top 5-10.

Good list, thanks Pav.

Thank you!

Rasmus Kupari will rise in to the top 20 next season mark my words! He has a special kind of skill and speed to his game that for example Kotkaniemi doesn't have. I could also see Kotkaniemi rise into the top 10.
I also am in love with Boqvist's game. The kid also has an incredible shot!

Yeah, I like Kupari, but there were so many players who I wanted to put higher that I just couldn't because of how many good players there are. Not everyone can go higher on the list. Its only a preliminary list, anyway. He could very well be picked like mid first round. I want to see Kotkaniemi have a really good season in Liiga before I move him into the top 10. Most of the Finnish forwards who've went top 10 in recent years have scored like 25 or more points in their draft season. I think the biggest unknown in his game is his NHL upside. Could he be a 1C in the NHL eventually? Right now, I regard him as one of the safer forwards in this draft. If the big upside is not there, I'm not sure he belongs in the top 10 of a deep draft like this, but a big season could help his draft stock.

Agree about Boqvist, thats why I have him 3rd. :laugh:

I like seeing the acknowledgement of the kind of prospect Keegan Karki is along with Jacob Ingham. Both are usually not mentioned in lists like this. Still though I wouldn't have Karki this high unless you believe he's fixed his footwork because right now he's having issues knowing where his feet are.

I won't lie and say I'm great with the little technical things about the goalie position, just my initial observations. You probably know more about that than me.

Thomas, McShane, Dellandrea and Mcbain out of the first round?
Looks a little Eurocentric for my taste.
McBain in top 15
Thomas in top 20
McShane and Dellandrea late first rounders.

Yes, Eurocentric. All my rankings are Eurocentric compared to the majority. I think Europeans are often very under-drafted, and I'm NA, so its not like I'm deliberately ranking my players higher. I think Americans and Canadians are often over drafted.
 
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93LEAFS

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Yes, Eurocentric. All my rankings are Eurocentric compared to the majority. I think Europeans are often very under-drafted, and I'm NA, so its not like I'm deliberately ranking my players higher. I think Americans and Canadians are often over drafted.
This may be true later on (especially for Russians). I haven't seen any in-depth study on this, but I don't think Euro's are undervalued at the top of the draft. I'd say the respective return among top 10 or so picks is fairly equal regardless of regions. Later rounds there is a disparity, partially caused by some teams not having adequate scouting in the euro leagues to grab guys who aren't in top leagues, so the J-20's and MHL are under-scouted. The top guys who play in big leagues and are at most major IIHF events are probably drafted where they belong. I don't think you can apply a universal approach to this.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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This may be true later on (especially for Russians). I haven't seen any in-depth study on this, but I don't think Euro's are undervalued at the top of the draft. I'd say the respective return among top 10 or so picks is fairly equal regardless of regions. Later rounds there is a disparity, partially caused by some teams not having adequate scouting in the euro leagues to grab guys who aren't in top leagues, so the J-20's and MHL are under-scouted. The top guys who play in big leagues and are at most major IIHF events are probably drafted where they belong. I don't think you can apply a universal approach to this.

I guess we just disagree.

I think Canadians and Americans, especially Canada usually produce more good players from every season's draft eligible pool due to sheer number of quality players, but if I'm ranking individual players, I'm not going to factor in those numbers, I gotta evaluate each player individually, not based on their nationality. All these players are still developing, nearly impossible to predict who will be the best, the side with more numbers will usually win out, which is usually the Canadians, and then the Americans. I think there are individual examples that have nothing to do with those numbers that point to Europeans being under drafted. Do you really think Crouse and Rasmussen would go 9th and 11th if they were Europeans? I don't think so, although I tend to think Europeans playing in NA pre-draft have an easier time with draft position, although I still don't think its equal. How does a player like Sebastian Aho sneak into the second round? How does Kucherov sneak into the second round? How does Poehling go 50 picks higher than Lipanov?
 

Daximus

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This may be true later on (especially for Russians). I haven't seen any in-depth study on this, but I don't think Euro's are undervalued at the top of the draft. I'd say the respective return among top 10 or so picks is fairly equal regardless of regions. Later rounds there is a disparity, partially caused by some teams not having adequate scouting in the euro leagues to grab guys who aren't in top leagues, so the J-20's and MHL are under-scouted. The top guys who play in big leagues and are at most major IIHF events are probably drafted where they belong. I don't think you can apply a universal approach to this.

Sometimes I think they may even be over hyped. Specifically if they preform well at international events. Overhyping happens in pretty much every region but Russia.
 

93LEAFS

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I guess we just disagree.

I think Canadians and Americans, especially Canada usually produce more good players from every season's draft eligible pool due to sheer number of quality players. All these players are still developing, nearly impossible to predict who will be the best, the side with more numbers will usually win out, which is usually the Canadians, and then the Americans. But I think there are individual examples that have nothing to do with those numbers that point to Europeans being under drafted. Do you really think Crouse and Rasmussen would go 9th and 11th if they were Europeans? I don't think so, although I tend to think Europeans playing in NA pre-draft have an easier time with draft position, although i still don't think its equal. How does a player like Sebastian Aho sneak into the second round? How does Kucherov sneak into the second round?
How does Gaudreau fall into the 4th round, how does Parayako get completely passed over then drafted the next year? Jamie Benn went in the 5th round. You can easily pick exceptions on both sides. Europeans probably bust at a similar rate relative to the amount drafted as North Americans at the very top. There is still a bunch of big name euro busts at the top such as Stefan, Chistov, Svitov, Zheredev, MPS, and Filatov.

I don't think Euro's are undervalued at the very top of the draft, and it would be very difficult to make a case that they are. Are guys in lesser leagues overlooked, probably, but at the very top, I don't think it really matters. Those guys get a significant amount of viewings.

If you want to say big physical guys are overvalued that's fine, but I don't think that is entirely a nationality issue.

At the very top of the draft, I'd think it would be very difficult to prove your assertion and the divide in later rounds is getting minimized over years by the increased spending on European scouting.
 

Daximus

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I guess we just disagree.

I think Canadians and Americans, especially Canada usually produce more good players from every season's draft eligible pool due to sheer number of quality players, but if I'm ranking individual players, I'm not going to factor in those numbers, I gotta evaluate each player individually, not based on their nationality. All these players are still developing, nearly impossible to predict who will be the best, the side with more numbers will usually win out, which is usually the Canadians, and then the Americans. I think there are individual examples that have nothing to do with those numbers that point to Europeans being under drafted. Do you really think Crouse and Rasmussen would go 9th and 11th if they were Europeans? I don't think so, although I tend to think Europeans playing in NA pre-draft have an easier time with draft position, although I still don't think its equal. How does a player like Sebastian Aho sneak into the second round? How does Kucherov sneak into the second round? How does Poehling go 50 picks higher than Lipanov?

Usually it's because of under production and size. If you are 6'0+ and producing like Laine, Puljujarvi, Barkov, Lindholm, Ristolainen, Hedman, etc. Than you are likely going to be selected high. If you are sub 6'0 and aren't producing highly there tends to be some under rating going on. 3 Euro's went in the top 10 this last draft though so I think it has a lot to do with the same reasons the Marchands, Simmonds, Benn, Subbans and the like all fall to later rounds. They develop a bit later than some other guys. It's going to happen to every single region in the draft not just Euro regions.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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How does Gaudreau fall into the 4th round, how does Parayako get completely passed over then drafted the next year? Jamie Benn went in the 5th round. You can easily pick exceptions on both sides. Europeans probably bust at a similar rate relative to the amount drafted as North Americans at the very top. There is still a bunch of big name euro busts at the top such as Stefan, Chistov, Svitov, Zheredev, MPS, and Filatov.

I don't think Euro's are undervalued at the very top of the draft, and it would be very difficult to make a case that they are. Are guys in lesser leagues overlooked, probably, but at the very top, I don't think it really matters. Those guys get a significant amount of viewings.

If you want to say big physical guys are overvalued that's fine, but I don't think that is entirely a nationality issue.

At the very top of the draft, I'd think it would be very difficult to prove your assertion and the divide in later rounds is getting minimized over years by the increased spending on European scouting.

I think its mostly a league issue, and then there's some nationality that plays into it. Some teams even admit that they ignore Russians.

And I don't necessarily buy that all big guys are drafted high because they are big. I think NA big guys are still preferred to European big guys. I could use individual examples, but you didn't seem to like that when I did so for my last point.
 

93LEAFS

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I think its mostly a league issue, and then there's some nationality that plays into it. Some teams even admit that they ignore Russians.

And I don't necessarily buy that all big guys are drafted high because they are big. I think NA big guys are still preferred to European big guys. I could use individual examples, but you didn't seem to like that when I did so for my last point.
It's not that I didn't like it, I didn't agree with it. You can cherry pick late round picks who hit quite easily in both directions and you can cherry pick busts the exact same way. The Russian issue is also much different when compared to the Finnish/Swedish/Swiss. Kopitar was probably under-drafted because he was under-scouted early on, but I don't think the guys who come up through major Swedish and Finnish teams are treated unfairly.

I haven't seen any proof that high in the draft euro's are more likely to exceed where they are drafted high-up in the draft.

I mean, this argument can be proven either way if you convert players careers into GVT, find that for the average draft position then compare results. But, just looking at each pick there doesn't appear to be much going either way. Atleast not the extent one can be viewed as significantly undervalued. My main contention was, at the top of the draft, they don't appear to be.
 
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Daximus

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I think its mostly a league issue, and then there's some nationality that plays into it. Some teams even admit that they ignore Russians.

And I don't necessarily buy that all big guys are drafted high because they are big. I think NA big guys are still preferred to European big guys. I could use individual examples, but you didn't seem to like that when I did so for my last point.

That has more to do with Russians being unsure of whether they will come over or not or bailing if things get tough. You really don't have that problem with Finns, Swedes, Czechs, Germans or Swiss players.
 

Babula

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That has more to do with Russians being unsure of whether they will come over or not or bailing if things get tough. You really don't have that problem with Finns, Swedes, Czechs, Germans or Swiss players.

I think it is pretty normal in every league to prefer "home made kids". Foreigner has to be better player or to be back at home.
 

Daximus

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I think it is pretty normal in every league to prefer "home made kids". Foreigner has to be better player or to be back at home.

I don't think the NHL is super picky. Some areas like Montreal obviously have a bit of a Quebec bias. Minnesota has been known to favor Minnsota kids as well. But other than that some teams actually have more of a Swede or Finn bias. St. Louis seems to love Russians.
 

93LEAFS

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I don't think the NHL is super picky. Some areas like Montreal obviously have a bit of a Quebec bias. Minnesota has been known to favor Minnsota kids as well. But other than that some teams actually have more of a Swede or Finn bias. St. Louis seems to love Russians.
Certain teams also trust certain regions of their scouting department slightly more. Under Hunter, Leafs seem a bit more comfortable taking Ontario based guys late (which we did this year) and gambled on Russians recently now that we've expanded our scouting there.

Very few teams have a scout in all European regions, so they miss out on guys and have to have one or two guys cover the entire region. I don't think it leads to them being disproportionally under-drafted but it does lead to sleepers. The Leafs who probably have the biggest scouting budger of all teams only have 2 Swedish guy, a director of Euro scouting based in Finland, 1 Czech guy (fairly new) and 2 Russians. Teams like Florida only have 2 Euro scouts for the entire region (hence why management/ownership tried to embrace the draft cohort model from the Canucks Army guys).
 

cgf

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I think its mostly a league issue, and then there's some nationality that plays into it. Some teams even admit that they ignore Russians.

And I don't necessarily buy that all big guys are drafted high because they are big. I think NA big guys are still preferred to European big guys. I could use individual examples, but you didn't seem to like that when I did so for my last point.

It's more that it's easier for Euros to not get the hype they deserve. Like Rantanen. Mikko clearly should've gone higher in his draft class; but that's not because he was finnish, it was because he played for a s***ty team in Finland and on a ****** team at his draft year WJC. Because his team sucked it was easier for him to get forgotten or lost in the shuffle than a guy on a mediocre OHL team.

But you see this happen in NA as well. The small market Q teams are regularly under-scouted because they get less attention and so it's harder for kids to get the hype they deserve; even if Halifax is so well scouted that they're averaging a top 10 guy in each draft because it's easy to get media attention when you're tearing it up on that team.

The same factors effect both NA & european prospects, but it's just easier for the europeans to get hit harder by those factors.
 

93LEAFS

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It's more that it's easier for Euros to not get the hype they deserve. Like Rantanen. Mikko clearly should've gone higher in his draft class; but that's not because he was finnish, it was because he played for a s***ty team in Finland and on a ****** team at his draft year WJC. Because his team sucked it was easier for him to get forgotten or lost in the shuffle than a guy on a mediocre OHL team.

But you see this happen in NA as well. The small market Q teams are regularly under-scouted because they get less attention and so it's harder for kids to get the hype they deserve; even if Halifax is so well scouted that they're averaging a top 10 guy in each draft because it's easy to get media attention when you're tearing it up on that team.

The same factors effect both NA & european prospects, but it's just easier for the europeans to get hit harder by those factors.
Rantanen's good, but I don't think he was really slept on. Most of the guys who went ahead of him would still go ahead of him today, it was just a ridiculously talented class. McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Werenski, and Provorov still go ahead. Hanifin probably keeps his spot ahead but it's debatable. Strome and Zacha are very debatable, and he clearly goes ahead of Meier. Then again, there's also Aho behind him, and to a lesser extent Konecny of players who have established themselves as NHLers. Guys like Connor, Barzal, Chabot and Boeser are also held in very high-regard. It will be interesting to see what a re-draft of that class looks like in another 5 years when the busts have been weeded out and players are in their prime.

The real sleeper Euro in that draft was Gurianov, who at the moment probably got over-drafted on the back of a very strong U-18's.
 

cgf

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Rantanen's good, but I don't think he was really slept on. Most of the guys who went ahead of him would still go ahead of him today, it was just a ridiculously talented class. McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Werenski, and Provorov still go ahead. Hanifin probably keeps his spot ahead but it's debatable. Strome and Zacha are very debatable, and he clearly goes ahead of Meier. Then again, there's also Aho behind him, and to a lesser extent Konecny of players who have established themselves as NHLers. Guys like Connor, Barzal, Chabot and Boeser are also held in very high-regard. It will be interesting to see what a re-draft of that class looks like in another 5 years when the busts have been weeded out and players are in their prime.

The real sleeper Euro in that draft was Gurianov, who at the moment probably got over-drafted on the back of a very strong U-18's.

I've never rated Strome, Meier was a clear mistake even at the time, and though I liked Zacha; I don't think he ever showed the smarts or skill level Rantanen has...though to me he was the safer NHLer, as he's a great 3C even if the offensive game never became efficient...that said I really liked Crouse's IQ against the puck & shot and saw the 30 goal PWF with an elite two way game and leadership qualities; basically a rich man's Ladd; so take my thoughts at that time with a grain of salt.

I loved Connor to so won't argue with you there; but I was a Barzal doubter...and at the time neither Chabot nor Boeser were that level of prospects; ridiculous draft+ years are why those two are so highly rated by their fanbases. Aho is another fine example of the difficulty euros can have building hype; though he's more Chabot / Boeser than Barzal / Connor in that his great draft+ seasons have fueled the rise in his standing and he wasn't proven enough to be there as a prospect in that draft...though obviously in a re-draft with hindsight, he should've gone higher.

My top 10 that year went McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Provorov, Marner, Rantenen, Crouse, Connor, Werenski, Zacha
 
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93LEAFS

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I've never rated Strome, Meier was a mistake, and though I liked Zacha; I don't think he ever showed the smarts or skill level Rantanen has...though to me he was the safer NHLer, as he's a great 3C even if the offensive game never becomes efficient.

I loved Connor to so won't argue with you there; but I was a Barzal doubter...and at the time neither Chabot nor Boeser were that level of prospects; ridiculous draft+ years are why those two are so highly rated by their fanbases. Aho is another fine example of the difficulty euros can have building hype; though he's more Chabot / Boeser than Barzal / Connor in that his great draft+ seasons have fueled the rise in his standing and he wasn't proven enough to be there as a prospect in that draft...though obviously in a re-draft with hindsight, he should've gone higher.
Was speaking in a re-draft type scenario. Rantanen appeared to be in the 6-13 range of that draft. Provorov and Zacha probably led that pack but could easily be grouped with Werenski, Rantanen, Crouse, Barzal, Connor, and Meier. The 3 to 5 range appeared to have a decent amount of separation at the time.

Aho was a shocker, just among Euro's he was ranked 18th overall among Euro skaters and wasn't even the highest ranked Sebastian Aho. His status is purely post-draft.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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That has more to do with Russians being unsure of whether they will come over or not or bailing if things get tough. You really don't have that problem with Finns, Swedes, Czechs, Germans or Swiss players.

So its the fault of the Russian kids? :help:

NHL teams don't scout Russia well enough. Thats on them. They also under scout the other European countries. You see teams make errors all the time with picking the bigger name European than the better one who's on the same national junior team. Thats because teams don't scout Europe well enough. And part of that is that its harder for the central figures within teams to get to Europe, so they probably know the players playing in NA a lot better.
 

93LEAFS

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So its the fault of the Russian kids? :help:

NHL teams don't scout Russia well enough. Thats on them. They also under scout the other European countries. You see teams make errors all the time with picking the bigger name European than the better one who's on the same national junior team. Thats because teams don't scout Europe well enough. And part of that is that its harder for the central figures within teams to get to Europe, so they probably know the players playing in NA a lot better.
Russian teams are also highly uncooperative with NHL teams that magnifies the difficulty in scouting them. Unless you have a scout with deep connections (which are hard to find because KHL also hires a bunch of Russian scouts) getting info is extremely difficult. Then there are the shady agents which can make it very difficult to actually tell what a guys contract is. KHL teams view NHL as competitors and the enemy taking talent away. I don't blame KHL teams for this, as it's their prerogative to protect their interests, but it makes life much more difficult for NHL teams. Other federations/teams are pretty open with NHL teams making getting accurate background info on a kid much easier and can give you access to practices.

Scouts mess up Canadians on the U-18 and Hlinka teams all the time. That's far from an exclusive European thing. They may slightly over-emphasize guys at IIHF events and mis-rank them, but I don't see how it makes them universally undervalued on are large scale, rather it makes the rankings of players within Europe just more inaccurate.
 

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So its the fault of the Russian kids? :help:

NHL teams don't scout Russia well enough. Thats on them. They also under scout the other European countries. You see teams make errors all the time with picking the bigger name European than the better one who's on the same national junior team. Thats because teams don't scout Europe well enough. And part of that is that its harder for the central figures within teams to get to Europe, so they probably know the players playing in NA a lot better.

When it comes to Russians, yeah I suppose it is. They are far more susceptible to just up and leaving if things aren't going right over here. Or just flat out staying in Russia. Not all Russian kids want to come over to play and that will undoubtedly affect their rankings and likely where they get picked. Why waste a 1st rounder or 2nd rounder on someone that may never come over? Obviously not every team feels that way but the Russian Factor is still a very real thing. Even if they find some success here like Kovalchuk did, there is still a chance they up and leave. Finns and Swedes tend to stay here even if they become depth players, likely because the pay is still better than in their native countries. Russians that aren't top guys here can go home and be higher up on a KHL teams depth chart and likely make more money. Teams scout Russians quite a bit but just because they don't take them high in the draft doesn't mean they don't like them as players it's likely much deeper than that about how the player feels about coming over among other factors. Team's take weaker players on other teams all the time. This isn't just isolated to Europe.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
57,228
23,101
New York
When it comes to Russians, yeah I suppose it is. They are far more susceptible to just up and leaving if things aren't going right over here. Or just flat out staying in Russia. Not all Russian kids want to come over to play and that will undoubtedly affect their rankings and likely where they get picked. Why waste a 1st rounder or 2nd rounder on someone that may never come over? Obviously not every team feels that way but the Russian Factor is still a very real thing. Even if they find some success here like Kovalchuk did, there is still a chance they up and leave. Finns and Swedes tend to stay here even if they become depth players, likely because the pay is still better than in their native countries. Russians that aren't top guys here can go home and be higher up on a KHL teams depth chart and likely make more money. Teams scout Russians quite a bit but just because they don't take them high in the draft doesn't mean they don't like them as players it's likely much deeper than that about how the player feels about coming over among other factors. Team's take weaker players on other teams all the time. This isn't just isolated to Europe.

But you can't blame an individual for the actions of their countrymen. And while you might be right that they are more susceptible to leave, its not because they are inherently evil, its because the KHL is a more viable option for Russian players than the SHL or Liiga is for Swedes or Finn's. The pay is usually better, and more sustainable over a career. Other than one or two instances, most of the players who've left have left because they weren't getting a chance with the NHL team. Thats the team's doing, not theirs.

I don't see any good reason for the Russian factor. The only thing I'd say should exist within the Russian factor are the cultural differences. Might take some time for a Russian kid to adjust once they come over, but that shouldn't mean you don't draft good players.

But I do think you are wrong here about how teams scout Russia. I realize teams have different ways of how they draft and its not always about taking the best player, but you often times see some of the best Russian first year draft eligibles not getting drafted. Never does that happen with Canadians or Americans, and rarely with Swedes or Finn's. Might be a little more likely with Czechs, Slovaks, Danes, but those countries have less talented players on average.
 

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