GDT: 2018 NHL Draft | June 22nd @ 7pm est

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QuietOnTheFront

@QuietOnTheFront
Jun 17, 2011
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The last two picks seem like a total waste. Surprised we didn’t touch Europe at all. Like rounds 1-6, dud of a seventh round. Would’ve loved a flyer on a Swede or Finn. Never understand our fetish with overagers in lower tiers (Todd Burgess, Chris Leblanc, Tim Boyle, etc.), seem like total throwaways.
 

Hale The Villain

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Apr 2, 2008
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Wiercioch did the exact same thing. USHL-> BCHL ->Denver. Going to Junior A/USHL prior to NCAA is common.

Nothing wrong with that pick, worrying about that loophole, which is rarely used, for a 7th round pick 4 years before he's able to even think about doesn't make much sense.

Wiercioch went straight to Denver after being drafted from the USHL, which means he would have had to play 4YRs to be a UFA. If he had spent another season in the USHL, he would have only had to play 3YRs before he could leave as a UFA. Given that he was a 2nd round pick and a good player, the risk of him staying for 4 full seasons and jumping ship was minimal.

Loheit, on the other hand, will only need to play 3 seasons for Minnesota-Duluth before he can become a free agent. And let's face it, he's a 7th round pick and will probably need at least 3YRs in college, which means if he develops successfully into a legit NHL prospect over the next 4YRs, in 2021/22 we'll be just another team trying to convince him to sign with us.

If we were New York, LA or Chicago, that would be one thing, as everyone wants to sign there, but unfortunately we're not nearly as attractive as a place to play. It's an unnecessary risk to take.
 

Tuna99

Registered User
Sep 26, 2009
14,712
6,797
Good draft by Ottawa. Brady is the exact type of player we needed and they added skill on D.

If you Rebuild from the net out they have Gustavson, Chabot and Wolanin, the two D from today and a future Captain in Brady
 

Ice-Tray

Registered User
Jan 31, 2006
16,288
8,100
Victoria
Looks like lots of skilled guys are opting to go the university route instead of CHL. I have to admit its a smart move for guys as it gives them an education as well as hockey training. Some of the universities have fantastic development programs, while at the same time young guys are playing right away against men.

I find intriguing that the team has decided to hone in on these guys. After a few high talent picks from this route lately, this might just be a less exploited avenue than then the traditional CHL picks, and allow our team a chance at better players with later picks.

The reports on these guys look solid, and the development reputation of places like UND sound fantastic.
 

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
53,113
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Loheit pick looks like more of a wasted pick than the Novak one.

We're talking about a player that is going to Penticton next year, then will be going to school, probably for at least 3YRs, which means he could walk as a UFA because of that stupid NCAA loophole rule.

Given how unattractive we are as a place to play in, we really should be staying away from long-shot college players with late rounds picks.

I think that could change pretty quick though, so I wouldn't base my drafting on the mess that's going on now. If Melnyk sells, suddenly we could be a much more attractive market to play. And, if he doesn't, and the player is progressing well, trade his rights off (obviously not last minute though).
 

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
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I'm pretty happy with who we drafted after doing my due diligence.

- I wanted Zadina if available, but was happy with most of the guys in the next tier including Tkachuk.

- Wanted Miller with our next pick, but once he was gone, moved on to Bokk. Getting both Bernard-Docker and Tychonick exceeded my expectations, though, I'd still have prefered Bokk and think we probably could have moved back again.

- Last guy I had intrest in went 79th, but Gruden looks solid, and after that it's a crapshoot anyways.
 
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BondraTime

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Nov 20, 2005
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Wiercioch went straight to Denver after being drafted from the USHL, which means he would have had to play 4YRs to be a UFA. If he had spent another season in the USHL, he would have only had to play 3YRs before he could leave as a UFA. Given that he was a 2nd round pick and a good player, the risk of him staying for 4 full seasons and jumping ship was minimal.

Loheit, on the other hand, will only need to play 3 seasons for Minnesota-Duluth before he can become a free agent. And let's face it, he's a 7th round pick and will probably need at least 3YRs in college, which means if he develops successfully into a legit NHL prospect over the next 4YRs, in 2021/22 we'll be just another team trying to convince him to sign with us.

If we were New York, LA or Chicago, that would be one thing, as everyone wants to sign there, but unfortunately we're not nearly as attractive as a place to play. It's an unnecessary risk to take.
Yup, I mis-remembered Wiercioch's route without looking it up.
 

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
53,113
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So... if everything goes according to plan;

Brady Tkachuk ~> more physical playmaking version of Matt Tkachuk
Bernard-Docker ~> poor mans Makar?
Tychonick ~> poor mans Fabbro?

Seems solid to me.
 

WadeRedden

Registered User
Feb 24, 2016
846
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Here’s the thing with any picks outside the 3rd round. The likeliness of drafting an NHL player, is about the same from rounds 4-7. (9%)

There is no way a scouting staff can see every player multiple times, so when you are looking at players to be take in rounds 4-7, you are looking for flashes of NHL talent.

I honestly know very little about the players Ottawa took in rounds 4+, but Ottawa has had good success getting NHL quality players in later rounds, so I see no reason to doubt their methods.

I have no idea why people keep perpetuating this narrative. Ottawa's last really good draft was in 2011--seven years ago. Between 2012 and 2014, they absolutely whiffed on nearly every pick (including Lazar, who I consider a bust and think will be out of the NHL before his 25th birthday). The jury is still out on '15-'17 but I've seen enough out of a lot of those guys to know that there aren't any Hoffmans or Stones in those classes. Best we can hope for is that guys like Lajoie and Jaros can become serviceable depth dmen, or that Chlapik or Gagne can be decent bottom six guys. I guess the point I'm trying to make is: Ottawa isn't Edmonton-bad at the draft, but they're also not especially good either. At least not good in the way that people try to portray them online and in the media. They're average to slightly-below average at best imo. I think they were once a little bit above average but a lot has happened since 2011. Bryan Murray died, Bob Lowes moved on to Vegas, and Melnyk went busto. We aren't who we once were.

And yeah, I get your point about not being able to see guys play multiple times. But how does that explain them drafting players out of obscure tier II and high school leagues? I just don't understand it really. It's not like they've had success doing it. I don't understand why they keep going back to that well. The only thing that makes sense is they're drafting for need and feel like some of these guys can be serviceable role players. But, again, why even take those guys with a draft pick? They're a dime a dozen. A few years ago Brandon Prust was literally practicing with the Leafs for free because he was so desperate to stay in the league. Imo, they should swing for a home-run on a Mark Stone type player (NHL talent, with certain deficiencies) instead of trying to get a guy they could acquire cheaply through free agency.
 
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Sens of Anarchy

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Jul 9, 2013
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I have no idea why people keep perpetuating this narrative. Ottawa's last really good draft was in 2011--seven years ago. Between 2012 and 2014, they absolutely whiffed on nearly every pick (including Lazar, who I consider a bust and think will be out of the NHL before his 25th birthday). The jury is still out on '15-'17 but I've seen enough out of a lot of those guys to know that there aren't any Hoffmans or Stones in those classes. Best we can hope for is that guys like Lajoie and Jaros can become serviceable depth dmen, or that Chlapik or Gagne can be decent bottom six guys. I guess the point I'm trying to make is: Ottawa isn't Edmonton-bad at the draft, but they're also not especially good either. At least not good in the way that people try to portray them online and in the media. They're average to slightly-below average at best imo. I think they were once a little bit above average but a lot has happened since 2011. Bryan Murray died, Bob Lowes moved on to Vegas, and Melnyk went busto. We aren't who we once were.

And yeah, I get your point about not being able to see guys play multiple times. But how does that explain them drafting players out of obscure tier II and high school leagues? I just don't understand it really. It's not like they've had success doing it. I don't understand why they keep going back to that well. The only thing that makes sense is they're drafting for need and feel like some of these guys can be serviceable role players. But, again, why even take those guys with a draft pick? They're a dime a dozen. A few years ago Brandon Prust was literally practicing with the Leafs for free because he was so desperate to stay in the league. Imo, they should swing for a home-run on a Mark Stone type player (NHL talent, with certain deficiencies) instead of trying to get a guy they could acquire cheaply through free agency.

The AJHL and the BCHL are not obscure; Its the route players take to go to the NCAA; Turris played in the BCHL, as did Jost and Fabbro and Makar.. Casey Mittelstadt played half his draft year in US high school... There is some quality hockey in US HS in certain areas, Minnesota being one. Sens took a HS player with their 2nd and their last pick in the 7th round. Tychonick and Docker were both interviewed by a minimum of 24 teams at the combine. The Crookshank kid sounds like he has some upside for a 5th rounder. The NAHL has a few picks pretty much every year .. I know very little about Novak other than he's an overager with good size that led the league in scoring both in goals and points .. I would not expect much from our 7th rounders but you never know
 
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WadeRedden

Registered User
Feb 24, 2016
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The AJHL and the BCHL are not obscure; Its the route players take to go to the NCAA; Turris played in the BCHL, as did Jost and Fabbro and Makar.. Casey Mittelstadt played half his draft year in US high school... There is some quality hockey in US HS in certain areas, Minnesota being one. Sens took a HS player with their 2nd and their last pick in the 7th round. Tychonick and Docker were both interviewed by a minimum of 24 teams at the combine. The Crookshank kid sounds like he has some upside for a 5th rounder. The NAHL has a few picks pretty much every year .. I know very little about Novak other than he's an overager with good size that led the league in scoring both in goals and points .. I would not expect much from our 7th rounders but you never know

Yeah, I meant to say "tier II and obscure HS leagues." I'm well aware of the fact that Turris, Makar, Jost and a slew of other players were drafted out of the BCHL and AJHL. It's also worth noting that those guys f***ing annihilated those leagues. I'm ok with the two early picks from the BCHL but the Angus Crookshank one concerns me since his numbers are somewhat pedestrian. Also, what does it even mean to say he "sounds like he has some upside for a 5th rounder." If you're gonna draft a player, I hope he has some upside. Otherwise, why are you drafting him? As for the few picks coming out of the NAHL every year, they're almost all trash. I'm not saying there aren't any talented players in that league but it's inferior to basically every other junior league in NA and I think it's hard to gauge how good a player will be when you're watching him play against a bunch of nobodies every night. These guys almost always end up going to some second-rate college program and then languishing in the ECHL for a few years before they call it quits on hockey. Hard pass on the next Todd Burgess imo.

I'd love to be proven wrong though.
 

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
53,113
30,328
I have no idea why people keep perpetuating this narrative. Ottawa's last really good draft was in 2011--seven years ago. Between 2012 and 2014, they absolutely whiffed on nearly every pick (including Lazar, who I consider a bust and think will be out of the NHL before his 25th birthday). The jury is still out on '15-'17 but I've seen enough out of a lot of those guys to know that there aren't any Hoffmans or Stones in those classes. Best we can hope for is that guys like Lajoie and Jaros can become serviceable depth dmen, or that Chlapik or Gagne can be decent bottom six guys. I guess the point I'm trying to make is: Ottawa isn't Edmonton-bad at the draft, but they're also not especially good either. At least not good in the way that people try to portray them online and in the media. They're average to slightly-below average at best imo. I think they were once a little bit above average but a lot has happened since 2011. Bryan Murray died, Bob Lowes moved on to Vegas, and Melnyk went busto. We aren't who we once were.

And yeah, I get your point about not being able to see guys play multiple times. But how does that explain them drafting players out of obscure tier II and high school leagues? I just don't understand it really. It's not like they've had success doing it. I don't understand why they keep going back to that well. The only thing that makes sense is they're drafting for need and feel like some of these guys can be serviceable role players. But, again, why even take those guys with a draft pick? They're a dime a dozen. A few years ago Brandon Prust was literally practicing with the Leafs for free because he was so desperate to stay in the league. Imo, they should swing for a home-run on a Mark Stone type player (NHL talent, with certain deficiencies) instead of trying to get a guy they could acquire cheaply through free agency.

2015 looks to be shaping up as good as 2011 imo, particularly when you account for draft position. Chabot, White and Wolanin all look like legit NHL players. Jaros and Chlapik could become some as well.

in 2016 Both Brown and Dahlen look like they'll be quality NHL'rs and I think Lajoie has a shot as well.

2017 was only 4 picks, but so far 2 look extremely promising in Forementon and Batherson.

We certainly had a dry spell from 2012-2014, which makes sense, we have fewer top 2 round picks in all those years combined than we had in either of 2011 or 2015.
 

Tundraman

ModerationIsKey
Feb 13, 2010
11,678
1,528
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How the heck is a camera right above a table allowed at a draft? Makes you wonder how many spies are eyeballing other tables from up top to see what players other teams have on their list. It's especially useful for a team that picks behind another but might be thinking of moving up and take a player just before someone else does.
 

armani

High Jacques
Apr 8, 2005
9,909
4,728
Uranus
I think Tkachuk, JBD, and Tycho are all NHLers, with John Gruden with the potential for more than a few cups of tea at the very least. I am intrugued by Mandolese's size and agility - his current stats irrelevant as he supposedly has no defence infront of him.

Tkachuk has the ability to be a bonafide star winger. Not one that scores a lot of goals (compared to Zadina) but does everything well. Total package Lex Luger. More tools in his toolbox than Zadina's (the best goalscorer from this draft class).

JBD-Tycho have immense 2nd pairing potential. With a good UND program recruiting them, this bodes very well for the Sens future. They immediately take 1-2 spots in Sens defensive prospect rankings.
 

BankStreetParade

Registered User
Jan 22, 2013
6,684
4,115
Ottawa
I have no idea why people keep perpetuating this narrative. Ottawa's last really good draft was in 2011--seven years ago. Between 2012 and 2014, they absolutely whiffed on nearly every pick (including Lazar, who I consider a bust and think will be out of the NHL before his 25th birthday). The jury is still out on '15-'17 but I've seen enough out of a lot of those guys to know that there aren't any Hoffmans or Stones in those classes. Best we can hope for is that guys like Lajoie and Jaros can become serviceable depth dmen, or that Chlapik or Gagne can be decent bottom six guys. I guess the point I'm trying to make is: Ottawa isn't Edmonton-bad at the draft, but they're also not especially good either. At least not good in the way that people try to portray them online and in the media. They're average to slightly-below average at best imo. I think they were once a little bit above average but a lot has happened since 2011. Bryan Murray died, Bob Lowes moved on to Vegas, and Melnyk went busto. We aren't who we once were.

And yeah, I get your point about not being able to see guys play multiple times. But how does that explain them drafting players out of obscure tier II and high school leagues? I just don't understand it really. It's not like they've had success doing it. I don't understand why they keep going back to that well. The only thing that makes sense is they're drafting for need and feel like some of these guys can be serviceable role players. But, again, why even take those guys with a draft pick? They're a dime a dozen. A few years ago Brandon Prust was literally practicing with the Leafs for free because he was so desperate to stay in the league. Imo, they should swing for a home-run on a Mark Stone type player (NHL talent, with certain deficiencies) instead of trying to get a guy they could acquire cheaply through free agency.

This is a pretty poor rebuttal. Let's look at: Pageau (2011), Stone (2010), Hoffman (2009), Dzingel (2011), Claesson (2011), Wideman (2009), Borowiecki (2008). It took almost all of these guys 6 years after their draft to have a full time NHL season. And while you have varying skill levels and contributions, you can't deny that there has been some great success with some of these players.

So how can you not afford more recent draftees the same amount of time before you start grading them as busts? And do you expect the Senators to draft star players every single year out of somewhere in round 4-7? It's not very realistic. Despite that there's still a lot of optimism about Wolanin and Batherson becoming pretty good players. So, again, patience is required.
 
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