2018 NHL Draft: Fisher's Seven Round Mock

[Larry Fisher]

I like how you had some off the board picks, but I think the ones I mentioned are a little too bold for me. Appreciate the work you put into this, cheers!

Those being Wise and Pekar in the first round instead of say Noel and McLeod? Or Samuelsson and Tychonick? Or Alexeyev and Olofsson? So many options to choose from in that 15-45 range. Jay O'Brien and Jack McBain could sneak into the first round too. I tried to swing for the fences with Wise and Pekar since I'm personally high on both those prospects, but who knows what will happen from 15-45. I do think there will be one or two "wow" picks of players that the "consensus" rankings didn't have in their top 31 or possibly even their top 40.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Really? I think Svechnikov would be the best thing that's happened to the Red Wings in a long, long time. If I cheered for Detroit, I would want Holland to pull off that trade at almost any cost.

The Wings aren't in a position to trade 2+ high picks just to draft a winger they don't need. They have plenty. Sure, he's much better than their existing wingers, but they just have nothing on defense. Their defense group is so impoverished that anyone they take will be a huge upgrade.

Drafting for need is not exactly en vogue, but Detroit drafts endless amounts of wingers every single year. Their forward group is fine. At some point they have to prioritize defense, and there's no better time than now.

 

[Larry Fisher]

The Wings aren't in a position to trade 2+ high picks just to draft a winger they don't need. They have plenty. Sure, he's much better than their existing wingers, but they just have nothing on defense. Their defense group is so impoverished that anyone they take will be a huge upgrade.

Drafting for need is not exactly en vogue, but Detroit drafts endless amounts of wingers every single year. Their forward group is fine. At some point they have to prioritize defense, and there's no better time than now.

I find the forward group in terms of the NHL roster and the prospects in the pipeline quite underwhelming, to be honest. Lots of decent talent but no real front-liners, nobody with Svechnikov's franchise player potential.

On defence, I quite like what the Red Winge already have coming in Hronek, Hicketts, Saarijarvi, Lindstrom, Cholowski. Those five have more upside than a lot of their forward prospects IMO. That said, as you can tell from my mock, I still had Detroit stockpiling defencemen outside of its top pick.

I just think Svechnikov would be dynamite in Detroit, similar to the Bure brothers. I wouldn't pass up that opportunity if Carolina is willing to trade No. 2 or on the draft floor with Montreal (as I predicted) if the Hurricanes happened to take somebody other than Svechnikov at No. 2.

 

[Brett44]

I hate Kupari with AVS. If Sakic can't choose a good players for second line like Kravtsov or Hayton i prefer trade 16th + For Skinner.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I find the forward group in terms of the NHL roster and the prospects in the pipeline quite underwhelming, to be honest. Lots of decent talent but no real front-liners, nobody with Svechnikov's franchise player potential.

On defence, I quite like what the Red Winge already have coming in Hronek, Hicketts, Saarijarvi, Lindstrom, Cholowski. Those five have more upside than a lot of their forward prospects IMO. That said, as you can tell from my mock, I still had Detroit stockpiling defencemen outside of its top pick.

I just think Svechnikov would be dynamite in Detroit, similar to the Bure brothers. I wouldn't pass up that opportunity if Carolina is willing to trade No. 2 or on the draft floor with Montreal (as I predicted) if the Hurricanes happened to take somebody other than Svechnikov at No. 2.

When I was talking about forwards, I was really talking about their young-ish guys already on the roster. They're technically not prospects anymore. Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi have all looked like they can play in the top 6 (Bertuzzi might be more surprising, but he was really good in his time this year). And then there are guys in the system like E. Svechnikov, Rasmussen, Givani Smith, and some interesting college guys in David Pope and maybe Chase Pearson. That's not to say that any of those guys are A. Svechnikov level, but it's a start. I think there's a lot of 2nd/3rd line potential there, which is appropriate for reasons I explain in a minute.

On the other hand, the only guys on defense I'm convinced by are Hronek and Cholowski. Detroit is really, really bad at drafting defensemen, and Lindstrom has a lot of power skating to do before I regard him as having a shot at being a 2nd pairing guy. The other guys? Meh. Not a Hicketts fan, Saarijarvi had a really tough year (and IMO the Wings are mishandling his development), and then there are some pretty meh stay-at-home types like Kotkansalo.

But I think there are two fairly Detroit-specific factors that maybe don't carry across. (1) Detroit fans are very, very down on the organization's ability to draft defensemen. The thought process is that if the Wings take a defenseman at 6, it'll be so early that even they can't screw it up. (2) Detroit fans want to be sure the rebuild actually happens. Ownership is definitely looking for a reason to bail on this rebuild, and A. Svechnikov coming in and scoring 30 goals would be enough for them to start trying to make the playoffs again. That would be catastrophic for the team's long-term chances, because they have nobody who even approximates a first line center, top pairing defenseman, or even a starting goalie. It would be jumping the gun in the worst way.

 

[emptyNedder]

Larry. Amazing that you provide details for all 217 players. Thanks.

As a Carolina fan, I would bet that the organization doesn't pick both Nordgren and Nyman. In fact, Aho was the last player the Canes drafted who was less than 6 feet tall. Though I hope you are correct about Nyman as I think he will be one of this year's sleepers.

So my guess is the 42nd pick is used on a player with speed who is at least 6'. Taking your draft order, I think one of Ylonen/Foudy/Lauko is the choice.

Also, at 96 if they go for a Czech d-man, I think it is Zabransky. Actually I hope that is their 4th-round pick. I know he didn't put up many points his first year in NA, but has fared well internationally.

Again thanks for all the great work.

 

[Dux917]

Like the fact that you included Max Crozier getting picked in the 6th. No player had a bigger drop in central scouting rankings from mid-term to final - but the BCHL is really hard to judge Dmen, and he had such a growth spurt from last year to this (5'10 to 6'2). He seems to be able to really skate still even with the bigger frame. As you said, teams may take a chance on him now, instead of waiting until he's an overager. Have you seen much of him?

Thanks!

 

[Wooren]

Didn't notice all 7 rounds have been uploaded already. Thought you would be posting them separately, so I didn't even bother to look for them.

I counted 16 Czechs, that would be quite a number but unfortunately I think there will be "only" around 10 or 11 Czech drafted. I have started making my own top 20 Czechs ranking for the 2018 draft that I will post on HFB soon and the best CZE prospects you didn't include that do appear in my ranking are Radim Salda, Karel Plasek and Daniel Kurovsky. All are in my top 15. While Kurovsky and to a lesser extent Plasek are longshots, I think Salda has pretty good chance of getting drafted.
On the other hand, Buchtela, Blumel, Svoboda and Klapka don't appear in my list at all. Buchtela may be a victim of no viewing, he didn't impress me much in last year's U18 and haven't seen him since then. Stats wise he had an ok season, although his lack of scoring in U20 league is concerning. Blumel is someone I considered for my list, but ultimately decided to not go with him, because considering his play-style, his scoring is underwhelming. He clearly has some skill, but 8+10 in 50 games in the USHL is not draft worthy at all. Maybe invite him to the NHL development camp or just keep an eye on him the next season, but I would not spend a draft pick on him just yet. Admitedlly, I haven't seen Svoboda nor Klapka play a single time, but I can't understand why they keep popping on some rankings from time to time. Klapka has intriguing size, but he spent the whole season in the Czech U18 league. You sure don't want to draft any player from that until they prove themselves on a bigger stage. He should be playing U20/Czech2 next season though, that will tell us more. Svoboda did play in the U20 league, but scoring below PPG usually means you are not an NHL prospect.
As for the rest, Zabransky and Kvasnica are too high, but we have already discussed those two before, so I am going to leave it like that.

And from a Boston fan's point of view, not a fan. Don't want Ginning and Buchtela, know next to nothing about Stastney and Hughes. Durzi would be a nice pick though.

 

[XXIV97]

The Oilers are going to take Bouchard or Boqvist if they drop. I like the rest of the draft though.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I hate Kupari with AVS. If Sakic can't choose a good players for second line like Kravtsov or Hayton i prefer trade 16th + For Skinner.

You don't think Kupari would be a good player for the second line? What don't you like about him?

 

[Larry Fisher]

When I was talking about forwards, I was really talking about their young-ish guys already on the roster. They're technically not prospects anymore. Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi have all looked like they can play in the top 6 (Bertuzzi might be more surprising, but he was really good in his time this year). And then there are guys in the system like E. Svechnikov, Rasmussen, Givani Smith, and some interesting college guys in David Pope and maybe Chase Pearson. That's not to say that any of those guys are A. Svechnikov level, but it's a start. I think there's a lot of 2nd/3rd line potential there, which is appropriate for reasons I explain in a minute.

On the other hand, the only guys on defense I'm convinced by are Hronek and Cholowski. Detroit is really, really bad at drafting defensemen, and Lindstrom has a lot of power skating to do before I regard him as having a shot at being a 2nd pairing guy. The other guys? Meh. Not a Hicketts fan, Saarijarvi had a really tough year (and IMO the Wings are mishandling his development), and then there are some pretty meh stay-at-home types like Kotkansalo.

But I think there are two fairly Detroit-specific factors that maybe don't carry across. (1) Detroit fans are very, very down on the organization's ability to draft defensemen. The thought process is that if the Wings take a defenseman at 6, it'll be so early that even they can't screw it up. (2) Detroit fans want to be sure the rebuild actually happens. Ownership is definitely looking for a reason to bail on this rebuild, and A. Svechnikov coming in and scoring 30 goals would be enough for them to start trying to make the playoffs again. That would be catastrophic for the team's long-term chances, because they have nobody who even approximates a first line center, top pairing defenseman, or even a starting goalie. It would be jumping the gun in the worst way.

Fair points, even if we will agree to disagree on a lot of fronts. As you said, mostly second- and third-liners up front or a poor man's first line with the likes of Larkin, Mantha and Bertuzzi. I like Michael Rasmussen and he could get to a No. 1 centre level in time, but I'm not sure he'd be the ideal centre for Andrei Svechnikov. I just think Svechnikov is on another level from anybody on Detroit's roster or in the Red Wings' prospect pool, so I'd be doing everything in my power to trade up to get him, especially with his brother already in the system.

It is a good draft year for defencemen and some in that No. 6 range have top-pairing upside, but you aren't getting a franchise player there. None of those guys not named Dahlin are going to be the next Lidstrom, but Svechnikov could be the next Federov in terms of impact on the franchise, not in terms of playing style. If there is any way to trade up and take Svechnikov, you get that deal done IMO.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Larry. Amazing that you provide details for all 217 players. Thanks.

As a Carolina fan, I would bet that the organization doesn't pick both Nordgren and Nyman. In fact, Aho was the last player the Canes drafted who was less than 6 feet tall. Though I hope you are correct about Nyman as I think he will be one of this year's sleepers.

So my guess is the 42nd pick is used on a player with speed who is at least 6'. Taking your draft order, I think one of Ylonen/Foudy/Lauko is the choice.

Also, at 96 if they go for a Czech d-man, I think it is Zabransky. Actually I hope that is their 4th-round pick. I know he didn't put up many points his first year in NA, but has fared well internationally.

Again thanks for all the great work.

Interesting to me that you'd prefer Zabransky over Kral. I'm intrigued to see where they both go, I like their upside and think they could take off in their draft-plus-one campaigns.

Noted on the other fronts. Thanks for reading and for commenting.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Like the fact that you included Max Crozier getting picked in the 6th. No player had a bigger drop in central scouting rankings from mid-term to final - but the BCHL is really hard to judge Dmen, and he had such a growth spurt from last year to this (5'10 to 6'2). He seems to be able to really skate still even with the bigger frame. As you said, teams may take a chance on him now, instead of waiting until he's an overager. Have you seen much of him?

Thanks!

I haven't seen much of Crozier with my own eyes, but I have a good network of BCHL scouts/staff and I've heard a lot of good/promising reports on his potential. At that point in the draft, lots of teams will be picking for potential not stat-lines to date, so I do think Crozier could be on the radar for a number of teams. In saying that, I feel his chances of getting drafted are 50/50.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Didn't notice all 7 rounds have been uploaded already. Thought you would be posting them separately, so I didn't even bother to look for them.

I counted 16 Czechs, that would be quite a number but unfortunately I think there will be "only" around 10 or 11 Czech drafted. I have started making my own top 20 Czechs ranking for the 2018 draft that I will post on HFB soon and the best CZE prospects you didn't include that do appear in my ranking are Radim Salda, Karel Plasek and Daniel Kurovsky. All are in my top 15. While Kurovsky and to a lesser extent Plasek are longshots, I think Salda has pretty good chance of getting drafted.
On the other hand, Buchtela, Blumel, Svoboda and Klapka don't appear in my list at all. Buchtela may be a victim of no viewing, he didn't impress me much in last year's U18 and haven't seen him since then. Stats wise he had an ok season, although his lack of scoring in U20 league is concerning. Blumel is someone I considered for my list, but ultimately decided to not go with him, because considering his play-style, his scoring is underwhelming. He clearly has some skill, but 8+10 in 50 games in the USHL is not draft worthy at all. Maybe invite him to the NHL development camp or just keep an eye on him the next season, but I would not spend a draft pick on him just yet. Admitedlly, I haven't seen Svoboda nor Klapka play a single time, but I can't understand why they keep popping on some rankings from time to time. Klapka has intriguing size, but he spent the whole season in the Czech U18 league. You sure don't want to draft any player from that until they prove themselves on a bigger stage. He should be playing U20/Czech2 next season though, that will tell us more. Svoboda did play in the U20 league, but scoring below PPG usually means you are not an NHL prospect.
As for the rest, Zabransky and Kvasnica are too high, but we have already discussed those two before, so I am going to leave it like that.

And from a Boston fan's point of view, not a fan. Don't want Ginning and Buchtela, know next to nothing about Stastney and Hughes. Durzi would be a nice pick though.

Not sure if you noticed but Salda appeared on my Next 31, so he was strongly considered at several spots in rounds 5-7. Truth be told, he was in and out of my mock a couple times and he will probably be back in my revised "consensus" mock.

I like Kurovsky too and I've mocked him at least once if not twice before in 2016 and/or 2017 if you look back. I wouldn't be surprised if he finally got picked as a budding power forward since he looked pretty good on the international stage again this season. I see a bit of Richard Panik in Kurovsky, but not sure if he has the offensive upside to be more than a big body in a bottom-six checking role.

I don't know as much about Plasek, care to enlighten me?

I do like Zabransky and Kvasnica more than you, to a lesser degree Buchtela and Svoboda too. They would be on my personal draft list. I'm not as high on Blumel and Klapka, but they are intriguing to me. Those two might not make the cut for my revised mock, possibly replaced by Plasek if you can sell me on him haha

And out of curiosity, who would you be targeting for the Bruins in those spots?

 

[emptyNedder]

Interesting to me that you'd prefer Zabransky over Kral. I'm intrigued to see where they both go, I like their upside and think they could take off in their draft-plus-one campaigns.

Not to make you feel like you are competing, but I think ProspectsFanatic in on to something with the Draft Software rankings. Zabransky and Kral end up being very close in that model. Given that Zabransky is a little bigger, 7 months younger, and a right shot, I would say he is a better option--especially for the Canes who really only have McKeown and Martin as RHD in the system.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Thanks, great read.

One point, I don't see Edmonton passing on Bouchard to get Smith.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Not to make you feel like you are competing, but I think ProspectsFanatic in on to something with the Draft Software rankings. Zabransky and Kral end up being very close in that model. Given that Zabransky is a little bigger, 7 months younger, and a right shot, I would say he is a better option--especially for the Canes who really only have McKeown and Martin as RHD in the system.

I do enjoy checking out those rankings as well. Appreciate the feedback. I like Zabransky and his toolkit and was honestly shocked he didn't make a smoother and more offensively effective transition to North America, but I think he'll bounce back in a big way here next season. He'll be getting much more opportunity in offensive situations now that Cal Foote is graduating to the pro ranks as well. Zabransky and 2019 potential first-round pick Kaedan Korczak will be the go-to guys on defence for Kelowna.

 

[Brett44]

You don't think Kupari would be a good player for the second line? What don't you like about him?

IQ and playing on little ice will be difficult for him.

 

[Larry Fisher]

IQ and playing on little ice will be difficult for him.

Smaller ice is always an adjustment for any Euro, but I don't see any concerns with his IQ. Kupari was such a standout at the Ivan Hlinka that I expected more from him and thought he'd be the riser from Finland getting top 10 consideration rather than Kotkaniemi. So Kupari wound up being a slight faller for me in my final rankings, but he's still a first-rounder IMO and I liked the fit for Colorado. Obviously the Avs could go in a ton of different directions there, but I don't think Kupari would be a bad option by any means.