NHL Entry Draft 2018 Draft - Prospect Discussion (Poll added)

[Sensung]

Mitigation. The changes on the horizon for the team are incredibly obvious. We look to essentially be heading into a rebuild. Who rebuilds without your 1st round pick in a very deep draft?

What kind of idiot throws away an asset like Zadina when going into a rebuild when the odds favour getting a worse selection the following year?

 

[Micklebot]

The odds of drafting in the top 4 again next season are low.

There is no rational case for giving up this year's pick.

It's not about where you pick, it's about the quality of the players available when you pick. 4th OA this year is a good player, the 2019 draft is a bit deeper at the top end, so 6th or 7th could easily end up just as good of a pick. I think the risk of getting a significantly lesser player with our pick next year are pretty minimal if we trade off Karlsson and Hoffman, because if we do that odds are very strong we're a bottom 5 team in the league and pick 5-8th or in the top 3.

Heck, this years 4 to 10 is a complete crap shoot. Even 3rd OA isn't a safe bet anymore. 4th OA only has significant value above the picks after it when there is a clear choice to be made. That doesn't really apply this year.

My preference is not to trade Karlsson, but if it`s a foregone conclusion, there are worse things to do than bet on us being bad again.

 

[BondraTime]

What kind of idiot throws away an asset like Zadina when going into a rebuild when the odds favour getting a worse selection the following year?

One who actually watches and has knowledge on Zadina vs Hughes/Newhook/Kakko/Turcotte/Byram/Lavoie/Vlasic/Dach/Poulin/Cozens.

It's not going to happen PR wise, but it would absolutely have merit.

 

[SAK11]

i would also like us to look at dellandrea at 22 if we're not going to be taking a defenseman there(take sandin pls). guy was a near p/g player on the worst team in the OHL as a 17 year old with no help at all on offense really. say you were to switch him and hayton - hayton scores 40 points while dellandrea scores ~75-80 probably.

So you're of the opinion that Dellandrea is superior to Hayton then?

I agree that we should be looking at Dellandrea at 22, but the one thing you have to factor into his and Hayton's point totals is that because Dellandrea's team was so bad, he played in all key offensive situations, getting ample amount of PP time and always on the ice when a goal was needed. Hayton, though, was on a stacked team with a ton of depth so he wasn't always given the same offensive opportunities.

The one time they played together was at the Hlinka tournament in the summer where Hayton scored 3 goals and 6 points in 5 games while Dellandrea went pointless.

The one time I was able to watch Dellandrea closely was at the U-18s and while I liked what I saw, my concern is his offensive potential. I think he does a lot of things well, but nothing at an elite level. So no glaring weaknesses, but no big-time strengths, either. Still, a fine player to consider at 22.

 

[Micklebot]

Just for reference:

Lets say you think the breakeven point is this years 4th OA is equal to next years 6th OA. If you finish bottom three, 100% you will get a better pick. If you finish 4th, 91.7% of the time, better pick, if you finish 5th, 69%. At 6th, 39%.

Lets say the breakeven point is 8th; 97% of the time, if you finish 6th you will end up with a better pick. 55.8% if you finish 8th you`d be better off.

Lets say you conservatively think 4th this year is even to 5th next year, bottom 4 finish is 58% or better of getting a superior pick.

 

[HSF]

If they trade both Karlsson and Hoffman for futures and not immediate help, odds are good they finish in the bottom 5-8 of the league or worse next season. There's certainly no guarantee that they end up with a higher pick, but next years draft is considered a bit deeper, so picking 8th for example, may not yield any worse a pick. We'd essentially be kicking the can down the road, but with the chance of upgrading. The risk would be if we are much better, and end up with a pick in the ~15 range or, I guess a miracle happens and we make the playoffs.

The assumption isn't that we will be a worse team, it's that the expected difference in the quality of the pick will be worth the potential off winning the lottery and getting into the top 3.

With the way the league is structured today its hard to 'tank' . If the sens are going to trade Duchene and Stone then maybe but i don't see it happening.

Also the return of the players being moved out matters. If Karlsson gets back Cody Glass and we use the additional salary that we free up moving karlsson and hoffman to sign or trade for a defensemen then maybe we have a chance.

I think just saying oh we should tank while having good players still on the team is not realistic. There is way to much parity in the league along with the not so strong lottery odds that you cant bank on getting a top 3 pick anymore

Additionally karlsson didn't play too well this year and clearly it took duchene some time to get comfy on this team. Even with those two factors and terrible goaltending we weren't the worst team in the league. I also suspect we will be seeing some younger guys take a step forward

 

[branch]

What kind of idiot throws away an asset like Zadina when going into a rebuild when the odds favour getting a worse selection the following year?

What kind of idiot is willing to watch Jack Hughes pull on an Avalanche sweater next year, because it looks like we're only getting worse. And there's only one more spot we can fall.

 

[R2010]

Article on Bouchard vs Dobson.
2018 NHL Draft: Bouchard vs. Dobson

""To me, Dobson has a little more skating ability that allows him to have more of an impact," said Craig Button, TSN resident director of scouting, NHL analyst and former NHL general manager. "Evan is a real smart player, but for a player as smart as Noah at the next level, not that the demands are easier, but the game is easier because everyone is in the right position. I give the edge to Noah.""

"In a poll conducted by NHL.com of 10 NHL scouts, Dobson had a 6-4 advantage."

Bob Mckenzie also says Dobson is #2 D-man now on his draft board.

Sounds like he's the big riser.

 

[HSF]

Mitigation. The changes on the horizon for the team are incredibly obvious. We look to essentially be heading into a rebuild. Who rebuilds without your 1st round pick in a very deep draft?

who rebuilds and gives up the 4th overall pick in a very good draft?

we are getting a good player at 4th overall

 

[Sensung]

It's not about where you pick, it's about the quality of the players available when you pick. 4th OA this year is a good player, the 2019 draft is a bit deeper at the top end, so 6th or 7th could easily end up just as good of a pick. I think the risk of getting a significantly lesser player with our pick next year are pretty minimal if we trade off Karlsson and Hoffman, because if we do that odds are very strong we're a bottom 5 team in the league and pick 5-8th or in the top 3.

Heck, this years 4 to 10 is a complete crap shoot. Even 3rd OA isn't a safe bet anymore. 4th OA only has significant value above the picks after it when there is a clear choice to be made. That doesn't really apply this year.

My preference is not to trade Karlsson, but if it`s a foregone conclusion, there are worse things to do than bet on us being bad again.

Even if the Sens finish dead last, the most likely selection is 4th.

If the draft lottery didn't exist and the Sens could tank their way to a #1 selection, then I'm on board with the move. Unfortunately for us, the reality we deal with says that the Sens will be most likely to end up with a draft pick that is well below #4.

Factor in the Sens ability to always do the opposite of expectations and it being Andersons turn to have a hot season and the risk is simply not worth the reward.

Ignoring the PR angle and ticket sales and there is still no rational case. Once you factor those in, it will never happen, nor should it.

 

[Daffy]

What kind of idiot is willing to watch Jack Hughes pull on an Avalanche sweater next year, because it looks like we're only getting worse. And there's only one more spot we can fall.

It's almost zero we would pick first. Lets figure out Karlsson and then decide. But if Zadina is there, I think you have to take him.

 

[HSF]

What kind of idiot is willing to watch Jack Hughes pull on an Avalanche sweater next year, because it looks like we're only getting worse. And there's only one more spot we can fall.

what are the odds of getting Hughes? low low low

You think Buffalo was sitting here last summer guaranteeing they would get Dahlin? The answer is no

 

[HSF]

The sens had a horrible year everything that went bad did go bad the odds of all those things happening again are low imo especially if we are cleaning our hands of karl and hoffman you are taking out a lot of distractions

i still believe karl gets signed anyways

 

[Sensung]

What kind of idiot is willing to watch Jack Hughes pull on an Avalanche sweater next year, because it looks like we're only getting worse. And there's only one more spot we can fall.

So in your scenario, the Sens tank next season and finish last overall...what is there most likely draft position?

Will Jack Hughes be selected at the most likely draft position?

 

[branch]

Just for reference:

Lets say you think the breakeven point is this years 4th OA is equal to next years 6th OA. If you finish bottom three, 100% you will get a better pick. If you finish 4th, 91.7% of the time, better pick, if you finish 5th, 69%. At 6th, 39%.

Lets say the breakeven point is 8th; 97% of the time, if you finish 6th you will end up with a better pick. 55.8% if you finish 8th you`d be better off.

Lets say you conservatively think 4th this year is even to 5th next year, bottom 4 finish is 58% or better of getting a superior pick.

I think it should be considered consensus that we will be inside the top 10 next year. And everyone saw what happened this year. #11 jumped to #2. I can't believe people are prepared to risk that opportunity for a prospect that is good, but even the people that like him are ambivalent about him. He can go either way. If Zadina is gone, who do you take??? Tkachuk? And have no pick in 2019 which is considered the better draft AND we're getting worse from where we currently stand. Get real guys. How can you ignore this angle?

 

[branch]

what are the odds of getting Hughes? low low low

You think Buffalo was sitting here last summer guaranteeing they would get Dahlin? The answer is no

Buffalo wasn't about to trade their franchise D, and their top sniper for futures and players on ELC's after the most acrimonious off-season in club history. The team is getting worse.

 

[branch]

So in your scenario, the Sens tank next season and finish last overall...what is there most likely draft position?

Will Jack Hughes be selected at the most likely draft position?

It's not about that. It's about having that pick in the lottery. And it's not even tanking if we're just going to flat out suck unintentionally. Anything can happen. If your pick is a good bet to be in the lottery next year, you need that pick. It is way too risky. It's about proactively looking to the future which something that this team absolutely sucks at doing and has sucked at doing for a very long time.

 

[BondraTime]

So in your scenario, the Sens tank next season and finish last overall...what is there most likely draft position?

Will Jack Hughes be selected at the most likely draft position?

No, which is why you look at 4th overall 2018 vs the guys slotted 1-10...if you like the talent from 2019 2-7 more than the guy taken at #4 this year, there is a ton of merit.

I know right now I would take 5/6 guys at minimum from next years draft outside of Hughes over Zadina.

Impossible to give up the pick anyways with the PR disaster already surrounding the Sens.

 

[Micklebot]

So in your scenario, the Sens tank next season and finish last overall...what is there most likely draft position?

Will Jack Hughes be selected at the most likely draft position?

Their most likely position is the same they are in now, but the player available at that position is currently projected to be a better player than the ones available this year. Stop looking at numbers and look at players.

 

[Sensung]

It's not about that. It's about having that pick in the lottery. Anything can happen. If your pick is a good bet to be in the lottery next year, you need that pick. It is way too risky. It's about proactively looking to the future which something that this team absolutely sucks at doing and has sucked at doing for a very long time.

What are the odds that the Sens trade Hoffman and Karlsson (in your scenario) and don't end up with a lottery pick next year? (not even considering any other moves they make) \

Sorry, you don't throw away a top 4 pick for some magic beans when there are other ways to get into the magic bean party.

 

[Sensung]

Their most likely position is the same they are in now, but the player available at that position is currently projected to be a better player than the ones available this year. Stop looking at numbers and look at players.

I don't care about your projections. They can change rapidly in a year.

To mitigate risk, the Sens should take the sure top level prospect this season.

 

[branch]

What are the odds that the Sens trade Hoffman and Karlsson (in your scenario) and don't end up with a lottery pick next year? (not even considering any other moves they make) \

Sorry, you don't throw away a top 4 pick for some magic beans when there are other ways to get into the magic bean party.

100% chance Hoffman is moved and I think 75% or so that Karlsson goes. The catalyst is Karlsson. If he isn't here to move the puck for half of the game - it is a lottery team easily.

 

[Micklebot]

What are the odds that the Sens trade Hoffman and Karlsson (in your scenario) and don't end up with a lottery pick next year? (not even considering any other moves they make) \

Sorry, you don't throw away a top 4 pick for some magic beans when there are other ways to get into the magic bean party.

What does this even mean? Are you trying to suggest the return for Karlsson/Hoffman might include picks that could become lottery picks next draft? That doesn't really change the value of swapping 4th OA this year for our 1st round pick next year. It just gives us another chance at a pick that could very well be better than our current pick.

 

[BondraTime]

I don't care about your projections. They can change rapidly in a year.

To mitigate risk, the Sens should take the sure top level prospect this season.

Well you see, NHL teams do care about projections

 

[Sensung]

Their most likely position is the same they are in now, but the player available at that position is currently projected to be a better player than the ones available this year. Stop looking at numbers and look at players.

And where did you have Vegas projected last year?

How about the Sens?

When was the last time this franchise played to the projections?

If history teaches us anything, the Sens will unexpectedly squeak into a playoff spot next season. Still feel like it's a good idea to bet against your team?

How will the move affect fan morale?
How will the move affect ticket sales?
How will the move affect team morale?

Sorry, no sale.