In all my communications with Mr. Cordell, I really like him. He's extremely intelligent, a very comprehensive and astute writer, and a good guy. That being said, I strongly disagree with his heavy reliance on analytics.
For instance, comparing McIsaac's 5x5 pts/60 against a guy like Sandin is just absurd. Sandin was on a Sault Ste. Marie powerhouse that went 55-7 and scored 317 goals. Sandin was only third best of defensemen on his own team in 5x5 pts/60. How did McIsaac rank on Halifax? You guessed it -- first on his team among defensemen. These analytic stats can be so easily skewed to back an argument. The same argument used against McIsaac, I just turned inside-out with two clicks on the internet.
I think analytics are useful when comparing similar players in similar situations. But McIsaac is a big, mobile, shut-down, defensive defenseman with some offensive pop. He's the guy you're going to put out against the opposition's best line to shut them down -- a guy you want to control gaps against high-scorers, pin them to the boards and then outlet pass it out of the zone. He is not a "possession-driver", so to speak. He's a net defender. You want him to be Marc-Andre Vlasic, not Erik Karlsson.
Another player whom Mr. Cordell compares favorably to McIsaac is Drummondville's Nicolas Beaudin. Now, I really like Beaudin -- he's an extremely smart player who plays with heart, sees the ice extremely well and rarely makes a mistake. But he's also a 5'11-175 D who gets pushed around by physical forwards and is one of the slowest skaters among the top 100 prospects in this draft. Meanwhile, McIsaac is 6'1-195, an extremely fast skater, and quite strong and physical. This is why McIsaac is a first round pick and Beaudin is a likely third-rounder. Again, this is where scouting absolutely must outweigh analytics while rating draft prospects.
So, let's go back to the Rasmus Sandin comparison. Mr. Cordell sees Sandin as a legitimate pick at 17, and McIsaac as a second-rounder. I see McIsaac as a first rounder (maybe not as high as 17, but in a trade-down scenario) and Sandin as a second-rounder. Scouting wise, it's a no-brainer. McIsaac is notably faster, much bigger, more physical, and comparable offensively. Sandin's best asset is his brain -- he's incredibly smart, enabling him to be extremely successful at the QMJHL level despite limited size and athleticism. Sandin is uncannily efficient, a pinpoint passer, positionally sound, and effective at every facet of the game. I'm not trying to slag him, I really like him. But all of these attributes make him, at best, a bottom-4 defender in the NHL. He has no dynamic qualities, and he's not strong or fast enough to match up against the top forwards in the world in the NHL. While McIsaac is also not dynamic, his defensive play is as strong as Sandin's -- and he has the speed and strength to one day match up against the top forwards in the world in the NHL.
Am I saying the Devils should draft McIsaac over Smith, Miller or Wilde (or a top forward) if they are available? No. But I am saying that it's important not to write off a very good prospect like McIsaac without deeper research than rudimentary analytics.
