2018 Caps NHL Draft Thread

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Langway

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I actually watched about 75% of that game and was surprised at how it was entertaining and was just impressed at the skill over all for both teams. Merkley as a RHD looks intriguing. Kinda hoping a skill forward BPA falls where the caps pick if there is a good offensive D there...
That was the best round robin U18 game I can recall. Team Canada has to be considered favorites now. To beat USA without Veleno playing and in their first tournament game together was pretty impressive. Merkley mostly seems to stand out on the PP where he'll do something fancy but other than that I don't see a player that's matured much over two years or so. Lavoie (2019) and Lafreniere (2020) look to be big-time prospects for Canada. Very impressed with both, particularly at that age.

Noel has been pretty impressive so far. One thing I didn't quite realize is just how young he is as an August birthday. If he continues to look the part the skilled players he's probably a lock for the first round. The USA/Sweden game Sunday should be a good one.
 

Langway

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Sweden beats the US 3-1. I doubt the US even medals at this point. Really mediocre performance, all starting with their back-end. They'll be fortunate to advance in the quarters. Appert is a new coach for the NTDP and there's very little of the overall cohesion you come to expect from a team that's played the season together.

Canada coming up at 10:30 against Switzerland. Noel, Dellandrea, Foudy & McIsaac are among my third tier group from 20-30 currently. I suspect that'll remain the case unless maybe McIsaac's early tournament struggles persist or get worse.
 

Melkor

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Caps are in no position to gamble on 'power forward with grit' or 'two-way player who knows how to play the D' type of players. They should go after talent. They need talent on the offence badly. Even more they need to force Trotz to fit their prospects in a team game or just let him walk and close the door.
 

Langway

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The problem with that is at the point they're going to be drafting the pure skill upside option very likely has warts in their game. It also tends to be shorthand for soft player and we've seen the pitfalls of that approach with Burakovsky & Vrana. Another coach with a stronger emphasis on skilled pace should be able to get more out of them but their battle level tends to be a problem and that's primarily on them. Whereas Stephenson isn't nearly as flashy but has started to produce a bit primarily thanks to hockey sense. For me, I'd consider hockey sense and consistency primary values unless there's staggering upside to the point where flashes warrant investment. Players need skating and skill to back up consistently putting themselves into the guts of the game but there's something to be said for low maintenance players with a natural feel for the game. That's a skill in itself. It puts them further along in being pro ready, particularly when they possess plus physical tools. There are limitations in valuing current play over projecting against NHLers and that's where the tools come into play and hockey sense can suggest further upside. Whoever they take in the first should have plus speed regardless of player type.

The big danger for me is the defensemen and taking one that may be sound/savvy or something but don't add anything distinct from what they already have in the pipeline. To take one early I'd want considerable offensive upside or else I don't know that they'd be getting anything different than what they have. That could be Sandin if he lasts that long or Wilde if he really slips but I think that's it. I don't think Merkley is worth it in the first (but at 46 I'd go for it). They ought to go with a forward and maybe Olofsson is that marriage of upside and maturity. He didn't produce in the game against the US but you could see the hockey sense and flashes of skill. Throw in McLeod, Denisenko & Bokk along with that group of Canadians and that's the short list I'd have absent someone falling.

Noel to Lafreniere and Canada is up.
 

Langway

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Berggren with 2+2 against the Slovaks in the quarters. He's easily been Sweden's most dynamic, productive forward at the tournament. I expected a lot more production from Olofsson. He's shown some flashes but Berggren is making a pretty good case to be a late first rounder, potentially ahead of Olofsson as the second Swedish forward behind Lundestrom. He plays that waterbug type game and is likely the closest thing to a DeBrincat in this draft. He's not that level of pure finisher and there's some question whether his game necessarily translates as well against men but the work rate and hockey sense is there. His ability to work in tight spaces and move laterally is a valuable attribute that makes him pretty interesting. He's rather boom/bust and maybe draws some comparison to a guy like Tedenby but IMO he's more skilled.
 

Langway

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Finland beat USA 3-2 for Gold on a third period SHG. The US got better defensively as the tournament went but didn't have the elite pace you normally expect. The Finns had it and were deserved winners.

My more or less final rankings...

Tier 1: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, Bouchard, Wahlstrom, Kotkaniemi, Dobson, Boqvist, Hughes
Tier 2: Smith, Kravtsov, Hayton, Farabee, Lundestrom, Kaut, Kupari, Veleno
Tier 3: Wilde, Noel, Dellandrea, Olofsson, McLeod, Sandin, Bokk, Denisenko

That's 26 so just about enough for where they'd currently be slated to pick in the first round. There ought to be a few candidates available from the third tier at least. Then I've got a chunk of 22 for the Florida mid-second. They ought to be able to pick up two fairly decent forwards if they want to go that route. The third tier isn't spectacular in terms of raw upside but Noel & Dellandrea have a good mix of qualities and are relatively safe. Olofsson has a good mix and McLeod has skating. Bokk & Denisenko present upside, albeit more on the raw side. The first round doesn't offer tremendous forward depth unless my worst-case is off and some of those second tier types fall. That's possible should teams opt for some of the defensemen I've discounted off as first round fits like Merkley, MSamuelsson, Miller, Lundkvist, Addison, Alexeyev, McIsaac or Tychonick. I don't doubt a number of them go in the first round but I'm not sure I see the fit on the Caps aside from maybe Merkley but that's mainly from a skill aspect and I doubt it's an ideal environment for him. Still, there's probably enough pure ability there to where he deserves consideration. Sandin also may be too simlar to Djoos, albeit maybe more textbook defensively. The PMD profile and headiness is similar.

Trading up for Kaut or Kupari wouldn't be the worst idea (or Kravtsov if he slides). I'm less enthused about the overall depth of the late first/early second after the U18s but that's mostly in the context of fast-track players (at least ones that also present significant upside).
 
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Langway

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I don't want them to pick in the top 26
Yeah, obviously, but that just happened to be where the tier separation fell. Like I said, I don't doubt that Samuelsson, McIsaac or even Merkley end up going before their pick. Some team could really like Groulx, Alexeyev or Foudy. Who knows. There are a number of players that could sneak into the first round but that would be my list for the Caps in particular. Maybe throw Berggren into the mix if they're prepared to be patient with him in terms of physical maturity. There are one or two other forward wild cards like O'Brien or Hallander that could perhaps fit their profile as well but that's my attempt at narrowing a list down.

ISS May rankings. Noel moves up from 21 to 14.
 

Icejoker

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If You look at goalscoring at U18, five players has score 8 goals since 2013, McDavid,Vrana,Matthews,Laine and Nordgren this year.
 
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Langway

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So they'll be picking somewhere between 28-31. Hopefully 31st with GMs congratulating them throughout the first round. :D

I continue to wonder whether their current D-first approach will impact their drafting. There's a recipe here that I think needs to be taken into consideration when evaluating players. Mostly an emphasis on speed, leadership and hockey sense because even if they were to change systems in the next few years those attributes will carry over into most any context. Those attributes along with physical battle level and eventually strength will be keys in being able to fast-track more youth, particularly if Trotz were to remain behind the bench. They'll likely get AJF into the mix next fall but I'd definitely be looking to add yet more speed. It's such an asset all over the ice in making teams uncomfortable. But I also wouldn't doubt them taking another defenseman if someone like MSamuelsson happens to fall that similarly fits a shutdown profile. Previously I've discounted the likelihood (or at least the wisdom) in taking a defenseman that isn't more of a pure offensive-minded type given what's already in the system. But that also hinges on their thoughts on the development and ultimate upside of Bowey, Johansen, Siegenthaler & Hobbs. Are they still high on them and the fit? Do they believe they can net a higher upside defenseman even if it's not more of a pure offensive-minded type like Merkley? MacLellan did hint at wanting to replenish the forward ranks but I wouldn't rule out another D depending on how things fall, particularly if they're able to land more picks in the second round.

Since my tiers only went to 26 here's a few more that should be in the mix: O'Brien, Foudy, MSamuelsson, Berggren, Miller, Alexeyev, Merkley & McIsaac. That makes 34that I think are first round type talents, which speaks fairly well to the depth this year. Perhaps they can net two should they manage to land Buffalo's early second in a Grubauer deal or something. Foudy, Samuelsson & McIsaac may need the least work to be NHLers of that group and of course someone from that third tier could end up falling as well.
 

Langway

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So 30 or 31 for the Caps first pick as-is. Hopefully 31.

Brock's OHL top 50. He has Dellandrea fourth, one above Noel. I'm not much of a fan of Thomas as even a late first round option. Given their team success, it may be wise in the short-term to prioritize speed and defensive maturity as more seamless fits to be fast-tracked and fit the team concept. They may instead opt for upside depending on whether someone slides--and you can teach the defensive side of the game over time--but it may take longer. That becomes less of a priority I guess if they indeed win it all but I'd still tend to be a bit greedy in wanting to net a player that could be ready in 2019-20 while they may still have another decent shot.
 
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Langway

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Why don't you like Thomas?
I just get the vibe he's a really good junior player. I'm not sure what he projects to in the NHL. Does he stay at center? Is he tenacious enough for it? His hockey IQ is his strength and he was productive but I'm not sure he's a scoring-line center. I'm not sure he's explosive enough to be an impact type playmaking winger either and that's what mainly gives off the vibe that he could be a bit of a tweener. In my limited viewings his hockey sense hasn't been that phenomenal either, in part because his all-around work rate isn't great for a center, so at least from what I've seen I don't have him separated much at all from the likes of Wise or McShane in the early-to-mid second round. All three are talented but fairly short, immature middle six center projects. In some ways he profiles similarly to Kyrou, albeit with better junior production. Kyrou is tracking well but there are still some concerns with him in how he'll project. There's a fair amount of projection involved to the point where I'd be uncomfortable taking him in the first round. I don't doubt some team may do so but I wouldn't be inclined. Past 19 or so for the rest of the first round arguably it's a matter of taste and going out on a limb for someone. He's just not that guy for me. There's enough depth to where I'd be focused elsewhere, including Merkley should the Caps win it all and have the juice organizationally to require buy-in or else.
 

Langway

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The NHL combine starts tomorrow in Buffalo and ends Saturday with the last of the physical testing. Interviews will happen during the week. Kind of rough timing with the SCF starting so you'd figure Mahoney will be in charge. Listening to MacLellan's presser yesterday where he emphasized speed, playing North/South, defense and character I've got to believe those areas will be prioritized to a greater extent. There's an opportunity to solidify an organizational identity in this draft and you'd have to think that their success should help form a coherent template of the type of players they're looking for and what will be essential moving forward as the league continues to evolve. As such, I've knocked down the raw skill guys in Merkley & Denisenko to just out of my top 31. I've also knocked McLeod down to the fourth tier. Tier 3 remains the same minus those two forwards with minor tweaks to the order. Tier 4 includes MSamuelsson, Miller, McLeod, Foudy, McIsaac, O'Brien & Berggren to round it out at 31. If they could land 32+ for Grubauer I'd still shoot for bundling those two or 31+46 to move up for someone like Kupari, Kaut or perhaps Veleno, legit top six forward talents with strong skating at the forefront. Perhaps Grubauer could net something in earlier in the draft but I'm a bit skeptical. It would be great but it's hard to say whether demand will be that strong and they're at a point where he does need to move.

Overall, their success should clarify the way forward in so many ways that if decisively followed through upon they could set themselves up really well in the short-term. They need to get Carlson & Wilson sorted out and locked in but there should be a much more coherent sense of where they're at that and what it really takes to be successful in pressure situations. I'm not under any illusion that they've figured it all out because the game is too humbling for that to happen for very long but particularly if Trotz sticks around they'll have the foundation in place to continue to build off of this (and ideally should be greedy in that sense).
 
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Langway

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Combine invites:



The biggest name not there is by far Berggren. I haven't seen any reports as to why but you'd think if he's injured he'd still want to make it to speak with clubs.
 

ChicagoBullsFan

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Combine invites:



The biggest name not there is by far Berggren. I haven't seen any reports as to why but you'd think if he's injured he'd still want to make it to speak with clubs.


Also Finland's Niklas Nordgren will miss NHL draft combine.
He got sick before leaving to Buffalo he'll do his 20 interviews in draft weekend.
 
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