Prospect Info: 2018-2019 Senators prospect watch

[Peptic Balcers]

Manny is a great follow on Twitter. He/she is doing some really cool analytical stuff

Yeah really doing some cool work with prospects. He's made this tool that compares prospects to players who have played in the same leagues historically, and puts them in cohorts. Really helpful in identifying which players would potentially be worth scouting that you hadn't thought of looking at otherwise.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[stempniaksen]

Manny is a great follow on Twitter. He/she is doing some really cool analytical stuff

This caught my eye, if only because it ranks Cal Foote higher than any other outlet. If we end up snagging him in the Karlsson trade I'm gonna keep bringing this up and hoping that Manny is right

 

[OgieO]

This caught my eye, if only because it ranks Cal Foote higher than any other outlet. If we end up snagging him in the Karlsson trade I'm gonna keep bringing this up and hoping that Manny is right

For me, Tampa's offer has to be Sergachev, forward prospect and Foote.
Vegas, is Brannstrom (#9 above), Glass and another piece
Dallas would have to be Heiskanen, + +

Glad to see PD seems to actually be holding out for some of those pieces (or at least I think he is).

To me, the question is whether or not the relationship EK has with Melnyk really is beyond repair. Cause if PD doesn't get his price I hope he can get EM to budge on contract and re-sign Karlsson.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

This caught my eye, if only because it ranks Cal Foote higher than any other outlet. If we end up snagging him in the Karlsson trade I'm gonna keep bringing this up and hoping that Manny is right

LOL. I think this guy's method my be a tad flawed. Good lord that list.

 

[BondraTime]

LOL. I think this guy's method my be a tad flawed. Good lord that list.

When you scout and create lists without watching players and using stat sheets, Excel, and Moneyball as your criteria, that tends to happen

 

[Xspyrit]

Nicholas Paul - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Nick Paul just signed a 2-way, 650 000$ in the NHL, 80 000$ in the AHL, still RFA after

Didn’t make a thread for that

 

[OgieO]

Are we to believe that lists created by people who only scout players are free from misses? Of course not. Like any sport, a combination of analytics and direct inspection of players is critical. But that shouldn't take away from some really impressive modeling displayed above. I find that list to be incredibly impressive for using statistics only. Think about it for a sec - if statistical modelling can get you that far, think how much more efficient the scouting process could be.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

Are we to believe that lists created by people who only scout players are free from misses? Of course not. Like any sport, a combination of analytics and direct inspection of players is critical. But that shouldn't take away from some really impressive modeling displayed above. I find that list to be incredibly impressive for using statistics only. Think about it for a sec - if statistical modelling can get you that far, think how much more efficient the scouting process could be.

Exactly, if I'm a scout I'm using this as my rough draft to target players that I'm interested in viewing. Manny himself said his tool works best if used with traditional scouting.

 

[BondraTime]

Are we to believe that lists created by people who only scout players are free from misses? Of course not. Like any sport, a combination of analytics and direct inspection of players is critical. But that shouldn't take away from some really impressive modeling displayed above. I find that list to be incredibly impressive for using statistics only. Think about it for a sec - if statistical modelling can get you that far, think how much more efficient the scouting process could be.

It's very impressive. Like you said, using it in conjunction (and not anywhere near a 50/50 split) of watching and evaluating guys is a great process. This list lacks the evaluation and watching.

Of course lists are never free from misses, it is scouting, you are evaluating the future prospects of something in an ever changing motion.

Very impressive that he is able to put those stats together, it definitely has use. But having a prospect ranking where, based on only this statistical method, you get guys like:
Foote
Vesalinen
Davidson
Jokiharju
Bjork
Andersson
Valimaki
Juolevi

End up in the top 15 of guys based on this method, you need to put in other aspects to make the list, because the only guys you can even remotely argue (and they still do not belong) to belong in the top 15 are Vesalinen and Foote, both of which likely are outside.

It's a great tool to be used in conjunction with actual scouting, but relying it on itself to make lists for scouting is setting yourself up for disaster. Imagine we wanted Andersson instead of Bjorgstrom, or Robert Thomas, or Glass, or Makar, or Mittlestadt, or Vilardi, or Chytil, etc. etc. because he ranked higher using this. It's extremely impressive statistical stuff, not so great used on it's own. I'd be lying if I said I could do/understand/use that stuff whatsoever, though it wouldn't apply to midget guys.

We'd have ended up with Zboril instead of Chabot using it heading into the draft.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

This caught my eye, if only because it ranks Cal Foote higher than any other outlet. If we end up snagging him in the Karlsson trade I'm gonna keep bringing this up and hoping that Manny is right

Any idea how he'd rank the 2018 draft using his model?

 

[BondraTime]

Any idea how he'd rank the 2018 draft using his model?

Tkachuk would probably be outside the top 20

Also, Foudy...


Newhook is 41st in 2019 rankings as well, Turcotte 29th

Lavoie not worth a 1st

It is very impressive stats though, I guess, I don't know how to use them

Further reading, I definitely do not agree with much of what he has, though that doesn't mean a lick

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Manny is a great follow on Twitter. He/she is doing some really cool analytical stuff

Yeah really doing some cool work with prospects. He's made this tool that compares prospects to players who have played in the same leagues historically, and puts them in cohorts. Really helpful in identifying which players would potentially be worth scouting that you hadn't thought of looking at otherwise.

Lol, Manny is a great guy, he was a big poster on hf until he got banned and then he kind of blew up via twitter. I think that was the best thing to happen to him loool.

 

[Xspyrit]

So this is just a longwinded version of saying "yes". You watched training camp last year and thought those guys could contribute to a NHL lineup and are now claiming have skills in evaluating players.

Sorry, I can't hear because too many World Cups plugged into my ears

So you're confirming that it's useless having an intelligible discussion with you? Sorry if my language and NHL player evaluation is more sophisticated than "crap" and "garbage".

Oh and everybody knows that training camp is the worst time to evaluate veterans

And since I have no evaluation skills, just stop reading my posts then : problem solved. I'm sure there's some people enjoying them

And by the way, I never "claimed" to have evaluation skills, it was in response to your credibility attacks :

"You're in denial and imo don't have a very good grasp on most of these prospects you're talking about"

"I think you're probably not being honest about your talent evaluation skills"

You're kind of funny.

 

[Xspyrit]

lol people still blaming guys like Burrows, Smith and Oduya for our **** season. If karlsson, stone, duchene, hoffman, turris, ceci, Ryan, Brass aka the money makers on this team actually played to the level that we needed them we would have been a much better team. You can **** on the role players all you want but the top guys were either injured or just not good enough to lead this team on and off the ice

playing Chabot over Oduya wasn't going to save anything

It's not only that, it's the fact that they were basically expecting Oduya to replace Methot and Burrows to replace MacArthur. Those were key players who were never replaced. Sens basically have the same problem as the Habs, they are playing some players in the "wrong chair" (Ceci being one) and are expecting too much out of them, pretty much putting them in a position where they can't succeed. Difference though is the Habs have money coming out of their hears... They can go out and spend a lot to improve their roster. Just like the Mason trade, you wouldn't see Ottawa do that. Montreal can easily afford that kind of move to get assets in the process. Ottawa does the opposite...

Those players weren’t THAT bad.

Pretty much all players our management brings in to help our stars are completed and utter garbage. Like some of the worst players available

It's not exactly that, it's acquiring depth players (at that stage of their career) and expecting them to fill prominent roles. Recipe for failure.

Example : if you ask Pyatt to be an energetic 8-10 mins 4th liner, he's going to be fine. But if you start asking more, then you'll get a negative impact.

Also would have been nice to get nhl caliber goaltending.

Just average goaltending would have changed everything. We were dead last with 0.895%, middle of the pack seems to be 0.909%

NHL Stats

I still remember that Condon gaff against Arizona (Duclair hat trick) sending the game to Overtime (and they finally lost in OT) as the turning point of the season. Probably one of the easiest hat trick (without an EN goal) I have seen.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Tkachuk would probably be outside the top 20

Also, Foudy...


Newhook is 41st in 2019 rankings as well, Turcotte 29th

Lavoie not worth a 1st

It is very impressive stats though, I guess, I don't know how to use them

Further reading, I definitely do not agree with much of what he has, though that doesn't mean a lick

I would expect that .. although I have not looked into his model at all, nor can I pretend to understand how it works at the moment.

At first glance at some of the results .. it looks like its missing some factors / data but nice idea.

 

[DJB]

We gotta let go of that pick.. its gone.. I think its definitely a lottery pick .. and so be it.. If we had a chance for really great futures vs .. avoiding Colorado getting a top 10 pick, because we strove for the bubble this year only, I'd go for the futures.. I want to turn this piece of crap around. Dorion is not building a roster to win anything this year. If they can get everyone on the same page and it doesn't take too long, with some decent goal tending I optimistically think they finish in that 20-25 range. Boucher will add some changes to the attack but ... old habits die hard. The Dzone was horrendous last year and I can see it being worse this year.

I've moved on with the decision, but i dont agree with it now that we know more of what the plan is

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I've moved on with the decision, but i dont agree with it now that we know more of what the plan is

I get that and can definitely see that point. I look at it like , its a rebuild and we are going to need all kinds of players.. Lots of things can happen. The worse gamble was made last year imo.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I wonder why the Sens haven't signed Summers

 

[aragorn]

I wonder why the Sens haven't signed Summers

Probably because they already have around 46 contracts & want to leave a number of spaces open in case there are a couple of deals or trades made over the next season which may mean there will be more bodies coming back this way than going out. If EK is traded alone or even with someone else there could be two or three players coming back with contracts already in place. They could also be trying to move a few other players with the hope of getting back more prospects & picks. I'm also going to guess that they could be looking at Europe & the NCAA this coming season with the hopes of getting lucky & finding a player or two to sign next yr.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

I wonder why the Sens haven't signed Summers

It is really bothering me that I cant find this but someone mentioned that it had to do with off-ice concerns. I feel like it might have actually been the twitter account you just posted (Sens Prospects).

Frustrating because he seems promising. 1 year younger than Wolanin and he posted similar point totals as a senior, apparently while playing a solid, rounded game.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Didn't Summers also have a good camp earlier this summer?

If he signs a contract with Belleville exclusively (an AHL deal, basically), does that still count as one of Ottawa's 50 contracts?

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Didn't Summers also have a good camp earlier this summer?

If he signs a contract with Belleville exclusively (an AHL deal, basically), does that still count as one of Ottawa's 50 contracts?

No to both questions. No, Summers was not at dev camp at all and no, if he is signed to an AHL deal it does not count as one of Ottawa's 50 contracts. Bet he can get an NHL/AHL deal somewhere, though, and we could only ink him to such a deal after he becomes a UFA.

 

[R2010]

When you scout and create lists without watching players and using stat sheets, Excel, and Moneyball as your criteria, that tends to happen

Mitch Brown's project is a better 'moneyball' style. Much more transferable to actual scouting. The only thing model's like Mannys can be useful for to me is maybe helping to setup a scouting list and amending it but the actual scouting has to be done.

Mitch Brown's tracking data project
Brown: Explaining the CHL Data Tracking Project

 

[Xspyrit]

I've moved on with the decision, but i dont agree with it now that we know more of what the plan is

Which is?

The only thing I know based on what happened so far (many players over 28-30 y/o got moved), is that the team is going in a significant youth movement (which is perfect for Melnyk as it is cheap)... but as long as Karlsson, Stone and Duchene are not extended, I have no idea what the plan is. A bunch of young players need a core of solid veterans to guide them.

Also, since Colorado has their 1st next draft, it makes sense for Dorion to have the desire to be competitive, but where are the moves to that effect? We are 17th July and I don't see anything.

Is the plan going with Logan Brown as the #2 C? Chabot as the #1 or #2 D-man? JBD as the #2 LD? Ceci as the #1 RD? Tkachuk as the #1 LW?

I mean, I believe in those guys but that's again asking way too much and putting them in a position to fail.

I'm actually wondering, since nothing is happening, that something big may be brewing (sale please)...

Didn't Summers also have a good camp earlier this summer?

If he signs a contract with Belleville exclusively (an AHL deal, basically), does that still count as one of Ottawa's 50 contracts?

A NHL team will give him a ELC (unless those potential off-ice issues are huge?)

He didn't have a spectacular college career but he broke out in a huge way this year.

Summers earned CCM/AHCA All-American honors for 2017-18 (top 24 college hockey players)
He was on the First-Team ECAC Hockey All-Star and a finalist for the league's Best Defensive Defenseman award
He was also named to the ECAC Hockey Championship All-Tournament team

He was a top player in the NCAA last year. Sucks to lose a prospect for nothing. It's like another sort of Wikstrand situation.