2018-2019 General Lightning Discussion

[DFC]

Yeah, that's part of the problem. Stamkos isn't a set up guy, but he's trying to be since he knows he can't pot 60 in a season.

All those assists last year probably fed into the erroneous idea that he had playmaking hands, when really it was just Kucherov playing out of his mind + some puck luck. That's not to say Stamkos didn't play well. He's just not a legit 60 assist, or even a 50 assist guy. If Stamkos is playing his A-game, most of his assists are coming as a result of rebounds, because goalies can't handle his shot even when they're stopping it. We're not seeing that as much lately, which might be because the one-timer is a lot more telegraphed these days (but also might be because it's not quite what it used to be). Goalies are getting into position and smothering the rebound on him more now, and covering for faceoffs.

Using the Ovy comparison again: Ovy's shot creates chaos most times he gets it on goal, because goalies are just throwing limbs in front of it, rather than containing it. It used to be like that with Stamkos too, whereas now they have that extra fraction of a second to properly set up for it. So now his PP goals are often coming when he just legit beats the goalie square rather than getting the shot off before they can set up.

 

[DFC]

Stamkos gets manhandled in the corners and never walks away with the puck. He is certainly not one of the strongest players in the league.

I don't see him getting manhandled. I see him not walking away with the puck because he doesn't really know how to play in the corners the way, for instance, Palat and Point do. Or even Kucherov, when he feels like going into the corner. But I don't recall seeing Stamkos get outmuscled the way you see it with smaller players sometimes.

 

[Rschmitz]

Maybe it’s still something with his leg holding him back when shooting which ultimately makes him shoot less? Or wrist?

I spent a lot of time watching him play pre-injury and compared it to how hes played in the last year and a half.

For starters, his acceleration is way down, and his shots don't hit twine as often as they once did when he does shoot. The speed is probably the leg, I am not sure about the wrist though. Most notable is he doesn't shoot from everywhere like he once did, making himself very predictable. His predictability right now is his greatest sin, I don't believe the accuracy is off, its just being saved or blocked

 

[DFC]

I spent a lot of time watching him play pre-injury and compared it to how hes played in the last year and a half.

For starters, his acceleration is way down, and his shots don't hit twine as often as they once did when he does shoot. The speed is probably the leg, I am not sure about the wrist though. Most notable is he doesn't shoot from everywhere like he once did, making himself very predictable. His predictability right now is his greatest sin, I don't believe the accuracy is off, its just being saved or blocked

He used to have the ability to shoot before goalies realized he was set to shoot. He didn't look set, and then there's a shot coming at 80+ mph. I remember goals where goalies didn't even react to the shot, even though Stamkos was completely square to them, because by the time they realized he was shooting, the puck was behind them. He doesn't have that anymore. It's probably the leg. But I think he knows he doesn't have that anymore--he now needs an extra step to set up, same as everybody else--and I think that's why he doesn't shoot from everywhere. He used to shoot off either leg. I don't know that he does that anymore.

He could also change speeds on defenders a lot of dynamically than he can now, which helped get him better looks at the net. I think the leg injury, or injuries, has taken away his biggest weapons, and we now have to figure out a better way to get the most out of him.

Trying to turn him into a trigger-man winger isn't the worst idea in the world, especially with the way Brayden Point has progressed to being both a legit #1C, and also a guy who can set up a trigger-man winger.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Problem is Pointer likes to score goals himself too. What a beast!

 

[RegularSznAllStars]

I don't see him getting manhandled. I see him not walking away with the puck because he doesn't really know how to play in the corners the way, for instance, Palat and Point do. Or even Kucherov, when he feels like going into the corner. But I don't recall seeing Stamkos get outmuscled the way you see it with smaller players sometimes.

Manhandled man not be the right word, but he isn’t pushing people around.

 

[These Are The Days]

I'm starting to wonder... How much further does he have to go until Point >/= Richards? He is well on his way

 

[DFC]

Problem is Pointer likes to score goals himself too. What a beast!

Point might be establishing himself as a 1C. It started in the playoffs last year. Fun to watch, especially since, like most of our better players, it's a case of a guy who completely defied expectations, and then continued to defy them.

 

[The Macho King]

I'm starting to wonder... How much further does he have to go until Point >/= Richards? He is well on his way

...

He's got quite a ways to go. Richards was damn good for us (and of course earned that Smythe). But they're pretty different players anyway. Richards didn't have that same knack for scoring that Point has, but I don't think Point has the same touch on his passes that Richards had.

 

[Sky04]

Stamkos gets manhandled in the corners and never walks away with the puck. He is certainly not one of the strongest players in the league.

Just because he doesn't know how to play the corners doesn't mean he's not strong, is Gourde stronger than Stamkos because he wins board battles? Absolutely not.

 

[The Macho King]

Just because he doesn't know how to play the corners doesn't mean he's not strong, is Gourde stronger than Stamkos because he wins board battles? Absolutely not.

As physically fit as Stamkos is, it is really disappointing how underwhelming he looks physically on the ice.

 

[RegularSznAllStars]

Just because he doesn't know how to play the corners doesn't mean he's not strong, is Gourde stronger than Stamkos because he wins board battles? Absolutely not.

Wins boards battles, plays more physical, and is more physically imposing, how else would you judge stronger for a hockey player?

If you can squat 500 pounds but can’t play in the corners, you aren’t strong where it matters. He looks frail on the ice.

 

[Stammertime91]

Wins boards battles, plays more physical, and is more physically imposing, how else would you judge stronger for a hockey player?

If you can squat 500 pounds but can’t play in the corners, you aren’t strong where it matters. He looks frail on the ice.

Honestly I agree with this. Strength and off ice doesn't really matter. A strong player is one who can hold onto the puck and come away with it in the dirty areas and along the boards. In that sense, Gourde is a much stronger player. Stamkos just doesn't get in there and win battles often. He typically tries to pluck it and ghost away or pass it. Though that was never his strong suit.

The problem is his mechanics. He now shoots like a 25 goal scorer, not the guy from 5 years ago who was beating out Crosby and Ovechkin and was considered to have one of the best shots in the league. Sadly, those days are behind him it seems. Just getting open and willingly shooting it seem to escape him. His career has had a lot of ups and downs for a guy that's in his prime.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

He just doesn't seem to really believe in his shot anymore. I've never seen an elite player struggle with confidence the way he does.

Even when he was a more dynamic player, he would go through a stretch of 5 games where he was lights out, and then after a few games not scoring he would look timid and reluctant with his shot.

With him being a bit further from his injury, I'd like to see him pot a couple in a game and see what he does from there. Confidence goes a long way in hockey.

 

[DFC]

He just doesn't seem to really believe in his shot anymore. I've never seen an elite player struggle with confidence the way he does.

Even when he was a more dynamic player, he would go through a stretch of 5 games where he was lights out, and then after a few games not scoring he would look timid and reluctant with his shot.

With him being a bit further from his injury, I'd like to see him pot a couple in a game and see what he does from there. Confidence goes a long way in hockey.

Yeah, but I think we have to consider that he doesn't believe in his shot for good reason. He really doesn't get it off the same way as before.

 

[Felonious Python]

think we put in a claim on de la Rose?

 

[HoseEmDown]

think we put in a claim on de la Rose?

Is he even fully healthy? Had a decent health scare in preseason and thought he wasn't even practicing because of it. We already have Paquette who's a similar player and we would also need to waive someone to make room. Not sure how far Callahan is from coming back but we have to waive someone for him too so makes no sense to claim a guy to sit in the pressbox.

 

[Stormbreaker]

Is he even fully healthy? Had a decent health scare in preseason and thought he wasn't even practicing because of it. We already have Paquette who's a similar player and we would also need to waive someone to make room. Not sure how far Callahan is from coming back but we have to waive someone for him too so makes no sense to claim a guy to sit in the pressbox.

Callahan will likely be back at the beginning of November.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Callahan will likely be back at the beginning of November.

I expect Martel to be sent down then. If we claim de la rose than we would send him down now but don't think it's been 30 days so possibly Philly claims him back. Then when Callahan comes back we send Conacher down who might be claimed also. We would add de la rose, which we don't really need, but lose a guy the Crunch could use in Martel or Conacher. Just doesn't make sense as he isn't good enough to even be in the lineup every game.

 

[DFC]

I expect Martel to be sent down then. If we claim de la rose than we would send him down now but don't think it's been 30 days so possibly Philly claims him back. Then when Callahan comes back we send Conacher down who might be claimed also. We would add de la rose, which we don't really need, but lose a guy the Crunch could use in Martel or Conacher. Just doesn't make sense as he isn't good enough to even be in the lineup every game.

I think we've passed Conacher through waivers multiple times, but I could be wrong about that.

 

[Sky04]

I think we've passed Conacher through waivers multiple times, but I could be wrong about that.

Only once.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I think we've passed Conacher through waivers multiple times, but I could be wrong about that.

He passed last year but he was on a two year contract with the first year a one way. I could see why some teams wouldn't want that contract because if he doesn't stick you're paying a lot for a guy to play in the AHL. This year his deal is a two way so much cheaper AHL option if he ends up there.

 

[Sky04]

I was pretty convinced when mentioned how Johnson changed his training and how visibly thinner he was that he'd have a comeback year. Ovechkin slimmed down considerably last season and had his best year in forever. JT Miller also reportedly did this off season as well. Think players are going to realize that extra half second you can get by being lighter makes all the difference in the skill/speed game now. Stamkos and Palat are two guys who could benefit from this as well

 

[LightningStrikes]

I was pretty convinced when mentioned how Johnson changed his training and how visibly thinner he was that he'd have a comeback year. Ovechkin slimmed down considerably last season and had his best year in forever. JT Miller also reportedly did this off season as well. Think players are going to realize that extra half second you can get by being lighter makes all the difference in the skill/speed game now. Stamkos and Palat are two guys who could benefit from this as well

While true both Stamkos and Palat are at the lower end of the pack on our team weight/height wise.

All these forwards are listed as 6'1 (next I put their listed weight):
Erne 214
Joseph 190
Killorn 196
Miller 218
Paquette 198
Stamkos 194

Palat at 6'0 is at 188 (for reference Cirelli is the same size at 180 pounds).

For league-wide comparison top forwards at 6'1:
N. Backstrom 210
Radulov 205
Bergeron 195
Tavares 209
Bailey 212
McDavid 193
Kapanen 192
Lindholm 195
Forsberg 205
Tierney 195
W. Karlsson 189
Seguin 200

Of course there is a difference in fat and muscle weight. But Stamkos is deemed as one of the fittest players out there with a strict diet and training regiment. I doubt he's not fit or has "bad weight".

 

[Rschmitz]

Thought for sure Stammer was over 200