2018-19 Tank Tracker (Mod Warning post #724)

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Leadzedder

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Jan 2, 2005
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CHI leave the tracker.

Team - Pts - Wins - ROW

7. ARI - 53 - 55 - 22
6. EDM - 53 - 55 - 21
5. LAK - 51 - 55 - 21
4. ANA - 51 - 55 - 18
3. NJD - 50 - 55 - 20
2. DET - 49 - 56 - 19
1. OTT - 47- 55 - 21

Couple loses certainly cleans up the tracker.

Just LAK playing tomorrow.
 
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PullHard

Jul 18, 2007
28,377
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With McDavid going to the Edmonton wasteland and Phoenix losing out on Matthews, I don't think this league rigs the lottery. Those were two prime opportunities to turn around struggling franchises they could prop up.

Ernst and Young (EY) is known as one of the big 4 public accounting firms and they audit/oversee the lottery. I HIGHLY doubt they would allow the NHL to rig it considering it would tarnish their reputation and they don’t want to be the next Arthur Andersen. Yes, public accounting isn’t perfect but I feel like this process is so cut and dry it would be hard to pull one over on them.

I know you guys are right I just irrationally hate Anaheim and worry about the league screwing the wealthy teams for the umpteenth time
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
Jul 6, 2012
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Ernst and Young (EY) is known as one of the big 4 public accounting firms and they audit/oversee the lottery. I HIGHLY doubt they would allow the NHL to rig it considering it would tarnish their reputation and they don’t want to be the next Arthur Andersen. Yes, public accounting isn’t perfect but I feel like this process is so cut and dry it would be hard to pull one over on them.

Not highly doubt. There is no chance in hell that E&Y attaches itself to a rigged lottery for something as insignificant as a professional sports lottery. Unless E&Y is getting some kind of multi-kajillion dollar kickback from some rich dude who wants it rigged. Something like that would put a pothole in their reputation if it were found out to be true (or even implied to be true) and there is literally no tangible benefit for them to violate their own code of ethics.

AA got a really raw deal from a couple bad actors. The auditors on the Enron engagement were worthless sacks of ****, but AA as a company was really good. But... that goes to show you why there is literally no chance that an accounting firm is going to do something in a moral grey area for no return. One slip up and your business's reputation is **** and you're dead. Arthur Andersen was one of the most reputable and well thought of firms and they went out of business from one big blow up.
 
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BStinson

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Nov 11, 2013
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Not highly doubt. There is no chance in hell that E&Y attaches itself to a rigged lottery for something as insignificant as a professional sports lottery. Unless E&Y is getting some kind of multi-kajillion dollar kickback from some rich dude who wants it rigged. Something like that would put a pothole in their reputation if it were found out to be true (or even implied to be true) and there is literally no tangible benefit for them to violate their own code of ethics.

AA got a really raw deal from a couple bad actors. The auditors on the Enron engagement were worthless sacks of ****, but AA as a company was really good. But... that goes to show you why there is literally no chance that an accounting firm is going to do something in a moral grey area for no return. One slip up and your business's reputation is **** and you're dead. Arthur Andersen was one of the most reputable and well thought of firms and they went out of business from one big blow up.
I put highly doubt since I work in that industry and like to use the term reasonable assurance vs absolute assurance. Nothing in auditing is going to be absolute assurance but this is completely off topic for the thread.
 

newfy

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Jul 28, 2010
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Most probably we draft 5th overall from 2nd last spot.

So we are more of at Podkozlin/Dach/Cozens spot.

The wings would have the best odds at 2nd overall. I havent looked at it but would the odds be on picking 5th? I thought the odds kinda make it so you drop a spot, maybe 2?
 

A II R

Registered User
Jun 2, 2014
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Los Angeles, CA
5th isn't most likely from the 2nd spot.

Odds from 1st spot:

1st - 18.5
2nd - 16.5
3rd - 14.4
4th - 50.6

Odds from 2nd spot:

1st - 13.5
2nd - 13.0
3rd - 12.3
4th - 33.3
5th - 27.9

Odds from 3rd spot:

1st - 11.5
2nd - 11.3
3rd - 11.1
4th - 13.2
5th - 37.7
6th - 15.2
 
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Konnan511

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Jul 29, 2008
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5th isn't most likely from the 2nd spot.

Odds from 1st spot:

1st - 18.5
2nd - 16.5
3rd - 14.4
4th - 50.6

Odds from 2nd spot:

1st - 13.5
2nd - 13.0
3rd - 12.3
4th - 33.3
5th - 27.9

Odds from 3rd spot:

1st - 11.5
2nd - 11.3
3rd - 11.1
4th - 13.2
5th - 37.7
6th - 15.2
Maybe not the most likely, but with our luck, the most probable.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
Jul 6, 2012
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I put highly doubt since I work in that industry and like to use the term reasonable assurance vs absolute assurance. Nothing in auditing is going to be absolute assurance but this is completely off topic for the thread.

I am an accountant myself too. Just saying that doing that would give businesses the wrong idea of E&Y. Perception is reality for us accountants.

When it comes down to it though... if there is chicanery when it comes to the lotto, it’s Gary Bettman driven.
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
10,853
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I am an accountant myself too. Just saying that doing that would give businesses the wrong idea of E&Y. Perception is reality for us accountants.

When it comes down to it though... if there is chicanery when it comes to the lotto, it’s Gary Bettman driven.
Massive bonus points for use of the term chicanery.

chicanery-4.jpg



It still doesn't take the grand prize - that's reserved for charcuterie - but excellent nonetheless.

Ahh, charcuterie...

italian-charcuterie-board-square.jpg
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,078
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Tampere, Finland
Odds from 1st spot:
4th - 50.6

Odds from 2nd spot:
4th - 33.3
5th - 27.9

Odds from 3rd spot:
5th - 37.7

You end on the bottom three and the most probable spot to draft is 4th-5th. The final position doesn't even really matter in big picture.

And what comes to this 2019 draft, when some organization pulls "kotkaniemi" or "podkolzin" on this draft at Top4, being at 5th guarantees you a quality center. One of Hughes, Kakko, Cozens, Dach.

Not much to worry about.
 

Leadzedder

Registered User
Jan 2, 2005
1,770
628
So LAK loses. 0/2 points on a quiet night.

Tally 65/98
65%ish

The thing about this percentage is we're talking percentage of points gained by the bottom part of the league. To be hitting over 50% is a huge thing. We've had help thus far from other teams. Parity I guess.


Team - Pts - Games - ROW

7. ARI - 53 - 55 - 22
6. EDM - 53 - 55 - 21
5. LAK - 51 - 56 - 21
4. ANA - 51 - 56 - 18
3. NJD - 50 - 55 - 20
2. DET - 49 - 56 - 19
1. OTT - 47- 55 - 21


So, tomorrow night, Detroit plays Nashville.

Within the 4 point window, three teams are in action
ARI vs VGK
NJD vs STL
OTT vs CAR

Detroit could end the night in the 1, 2 or 3 spot.

ARI could possibly leave the tracker. But on the flipside, if Detroit were to win we could be adding 3 teams back within the window.

We'll see how it all shakes out.
 
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avssuc

Hockey is for everyone!
May 1, 2016
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Gulf Coast
Not highly doubt. There is no chance in hell that E&Y attaches itself to a rigged lottery for something as insignificant as a professional sports lottery.

So after the most cursory of research, I found a plethora of evidence to suggest agents working within the market economy might do otherwise.

The cited example is that 'one time' E&Y got caught cooking the books for Lehman Bros, leading up to the major financial collapse a decade ago. You know, that financial hiccup that crushed millions of us regular folk (for the benefit of the billionaire class, the same class that owns the NHL).

Ernst & Young settles with N.Y. for $10 million over Lehman auditing | Reuters

"While the $10 million was much smaller than what the attorney general’s office had sought, Ernst & Young agreed to pay $99 million in damages to investors in a class action settlement approved a year ago."

In terms of the "insignificance" of the aforementioned lottery, that's probably a matter of perspective, specifically one granted from that of capital interest vested in a CBA governed, 'marketing sharing', sports league. Though that's another post for another time.

I'd like to hear more of this "perception" stuff that you fellas mention...
 
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Marky9er

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Jan 30, 2008
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Leadzedder

Registered User
Jan 2, 2005
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628
Not a great night for the tank. Actually, nothing went the way of the tank.

OTT lose
NJD lose
ARI still playing.

Detroit wins.

There’s 3 teams DET could have caught (within 4 pts) with a win. They all played. They all win. (Oops, I meant lost so they go back in the tracker).

Tank fail.
 
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Leadzedder

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Jan 2, 2005
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ARI wins making it a 2/6 night.

67 / 104

That combined with a Detroit win and 3 teams above losing and falling back to the tracker make for a bad tank night.

But, the wings get a win for their father trip which is good and you can't lose them all.

Team - Pts - Games - ROW

10. ARI - 55 - 56 - 23
9. COL - 55 - 56 - 22
8. CHI - 55 - 57 - 22
7. FLA - 54 - 55 - 21

6. EDM - 53 - 55 - 21
5. LAK - 51 - 56 - 21
4. ANA - 51 - 56 - 18
3. DET - 51 - 57 - 20
2. NJD - 50 - 56 - 20
1. OTT - 47- 56 - 21


I'll group the next two nights together due to laziness and the fact the tracker won't change at all.

FEB 13
ANA vs VAN

FEB 14
OTT vs DET
FLA
vs CGY
COL vs WPG
NJD vs CHI
ARI
vs STL
LAK vs VAN

15 points total.

Det vs Ott is big in regards to rankings but with that said, if we win, that's fine. This is just something to track to keep a positive spin on another brutal season.

Detroit can end this 2 night view from 2nd to 5th.
 
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Steve Yzerlland

Registered User
Jul 18, 2018
7,885
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ARI wins making it a 2/6 night.

67 / 104

That combined with a Detroit win and 3 teams above losing and falling back to the tracker make for a bad tank night.

But, the wings get a win for their father trip which is good and you can't lose them all.

Team - Pts - Games - ROW

10. ARI - 55 - 56 - 23
9. COL - 55 - 56 - 22
8. CHI - 55 - 57 - 22
7. FLA - 54 - 55 - 21

6. EDM - 53 - 55 - 21
5. LAK - 51 - 56 - 21
4. ANA - 51 - 56 - 18
3. DET - 51 - 57 - 20
2. NJD - 50 - 56 - 20
1. OTT - 47- 56 - 21


I'll group the next two nights together due to laziness and the fact the tracker won't change at all.

FEB 13
ANA vs VAN

FEB 14
OTT vs DET
FLA
vs CGY
COL vs WPG
NJD vs CHI
ARI
vs STL
LAK vs VAN

15 points total.

Det vs Ott is big in regards to rankings but with that said, if we win, that's fine. This is just something to track to keep a positive spin on another brutal season.

Detroit can end this 2 night view from 2nd to 5th.
The worst overall usually doesn't get the top pick as long as we are in the range of the bottom 3 all we can do his hope for the best...
 

Leadzedder

Registered User
Jan 2, 2005
1,770
628
Well, the win over OTT is a big swing.

Wins
COL, CHI, FLA, ANA,

Loses
ARI, NJD, OTT

Loser Point...LAK

9/15 on the night. Still feels like an unproductive tank night.

Tally... 76 / 119
(64%)

NYR are back within 4 points. Ottawa is outside of 4 but they stay tracked.

Team - Pts - Games - ROW

11. COL - 57 - 57 - 23
10. CHI - 57 - 58 - 23
9. FLA - 56 - 56 - 21
8. NYR - 56 - 56 - 18
7. ARI - 55 - 57 - 23
6. EDM - 53 - 56 - 21
5. ANA - 53 - 57 - 19
4. DET - 53 - 58 - 21
3. LAK - 52 - 57 - 21
2. NJD - 50 - 57 - 20
1. OTT - 47- 57 - 21
 
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Leadzedder

Registered User
Jan 2, 2005
1,770
628
Team - Pts - Games - ROW

11. COL - 57 - 57 - 23
10. CHI - 57 - 58 - 23
9. FLA - 56 - 56 - 21
8. NYR - 56 - 56 - 18
7. ARI - 55 - 57 - 23
6. EDM - 53 - 56 - 21
5. ANA - 53 - 57 - 19
4. DET - 53 - 58 - 21

3. LAK - 52 - 57 - 21
2. NJD - 50 - 57 - 20
1. OTT - 47- 57 - 21

8 points available tomorrow
 
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