2018-19 Tank Tracker (Mod Warning post #724)

[Leadzedder]

Pretty good day to start the tank tracker.


We'll start out with a link to a site that shows playoff odds.

Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

- 0.07 % chance.
- 75% chance we finish in the bottom 3.


The Tracker (4 point window)

Team - Pts - GP - ROW

7. STL - 47 - 48 - 21
6. PHI - 44 - 48 - 17
5. LAK - 44 - 50 - 19
4. NJD - 43 - 48 - 17
3. OTT - 43 - 49 - 19
2. CHI - 43 - 50 - 17
1. DET - 43 - 50 - 16


For this tracker I take a look at upcoming games for that night and we're counting points for the other teams on the tracker. Although it's the biggest factor, I don't include Detroit's results, just the other teams that are within 4 points of Detroit.

Example, there's 6 other teams being tracked in today's example. If 4 of them play and they all win we've got 8 out of a possible 8 tank points.

If one of those games have 2 of the teams playing each other, then they both can't win. An overtime win by one of them is the best result. In that example it would be a possible 7 points.


(I've reversed the standings order to see if that shows things better)

Click to read more...

 

[Leadzedder]

Tomorrow night's games...

DET vs EDM

ARI vs OTT
NYI vs CHI

4 points available.


Also, with a Detroit win we could jump back to 6th last.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

0.07%

 

[Bondurant]

Tomorrow night's games...

DET vs EDM

ARI vs OTT
NYI vs CHI

5 points available.


Also, with a Detroit win we could jump back to 6th last.

That's a rough slate. I think Wings have the best shot at a win. Do we know who's in net?

 

[lidstromiscool]

0.07%

I wonder what the lowest chance percentage is that a team actually came back and made the playoffs

 

[RedWingzz]

I wonder what the lowest chance percentage is that a team actually came back and made the playoffs

Ottawa during their Hamburglar run. I don't know the specifics of the numbers, but they were so far out of it in March, then won something ridiculous like 21 of 24.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

When we were #30 I did the simulator several times and 8 times we came up with the #1 overall pick. I can live with that.

 

[jkutswings]

The Tracker (5 point window)

Team - Pts - GP - ROW

9. ARI - 48 - 48 - 20
8. FLA - 48 - 48 - 18
7. STL - 47 - 48 - 21

6. PHI - 44 - 48 - 17
5. LAK - 44 - 50 - 19
4. NJD - 43 - 48 - 17
3. OTT - 43 - 49 - 19
2. CHI - 43 - 50 - 17
1. DET - 43 - 50 - 16

We're number one! We're number one!

But seriously, thanks for tracking it. And here's a tankathon link, which includes odds, a simulator, and draft rankings:

Tankathon | 2019 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

 

[Red Stanley]

I should stop clicking on that ... 8 out of 10 clicks we dropped to 4th wtf

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

The Wings are back out of last place for the moment, but fear not: several of the other teams have games in hand. It'll be okay.

 

[KJoe88]

God dammit Koskinen.

He ruined it.

This’ll be the game that we could’ve lost for Hughes.

 

[jkutswings]

God dammit Koskinen.

He ruined it.

This’ll be the game that we could’ve lost for Hughes.

Since Chiarelli is such a genius to have extended Koskinen, we should do him a favor, and take Cam Talbot off his hands.

To EDM: Nyquist
To DET: Talbot, 2019 1st round pick, 2020 1st round pick

Seems fair to me. Then Detroit can deal Howard elsewhere for a 2nd, and the tank goes nuclear.

 

[KJoe88]

Since Chiarelli is such a genius to have extended Koskinen, we should do him a favor, and take Cam Talbot off his hands.

To EDM: Nyquist
To DET: Talbot, 2019 1st round pick, 2020 1st round pick

Seems fair to me. Then Detroit can deal Howard elsewhere for a 2nd, and the tank goes nuclear.

I mean, I want Nyquist re-signed, but I can’t even decline that...

 

[Leadzedder]

Well, Detroit takes the win jumping them up to 6th worse.

Ott loses to ARI (0 points)
CHI wins their game. (2 points)

So 2 / 4 tank points.

Team - Pts - GP - ROW

10. NYR - 49 - 48 - 16
9. EDM - 59 - 50 - 20
8. FLA - 48 - 48 - 18
7. STL - 47 - 48 - 21
6. DET - 45 - 51 -17
5. CHI - 45 - 51 - 17
4. PHI - 44 - 48 - 17
3. LAK - 44 - 50 - 19
2. NJD - 43 - 48 - 17
1. OTT - 43 - 50 - 19


Tonight...

STL vs ANA

2 points possible.Detroit will remain 6th.

 

[Larkin1578]

well, that didn't last long.

 

[Larkin1578]

Since Chiarelli is such a genius to have extended Koskinen, we should do him a favor, and take Cam Talbot off his hands.

To EDM: Nyquist
To DET: Talbot, 2019 1st round pick, 2020 1st round pick

Seems fair to me. Then Detroit can deal Howard elsewhere for a 2nd, and the tank goes nuclear.

He's gone now so...

 

[jkutswings]

He's gone now so...

I know...sniff...we lost our best potential trading partner...he will...be missed...

 

[Jon Cusack]

We are still 3rd last by point %, don’t lose faith in the tank

 

[Reddwit]

One thing to keep in mind is that most of the other bottom dwellers don’t have many core players on the trade block. Howard, Jensen, and Nyquist have all been huge for Detroit this year. If we lose them, we could be in for a free fall.

Ottawa is basically the only other team who is poised to lose as many key players. NYR could lose a couple key forwards but they also have a ton of young forwards who could step in to fill that void. The other bottom feeders should mostly retain their core and only lose secondary players.

 

[Leadzedder]

STL with the win. 2/2 points

(running tally 4/6)

Going into the break, this is how things are...


Team - Pts - GP - ROW

10. NYR - 49 - 48 - 16
9. STL - 49 - 49 - 22
8. EDM - 49 - 50 - 20
7. FLA - 48 - 48 - 18

6. DET - 45 - 51 -17
5. CHI - 45 - 51 - 17
4. PHI - 44 - 48 - 17
3. LAK - 44 - 50 - 19
2. NJD - 43 - 48 - 17
1. OTT - 43 - 50 - 19

Next games are on Monday.

PHI vs WPG
NJD vs PIT

 

[Henkka]

If the player picking order is...

1st - Jack Hughes
2nd - Kaapo Kakko
3th - Dylan Cozens
4th - Kirby Dach

...And Wings are dead last:

The percentages before the lottery for the players are:

1. Kirby Dach, 50.6%
2. Jack Hughes 18.5%
3. Kaapo Kakko 16.5%
4. Dylan Cozens 14.4%

The 3rd overall is most unprobable pick to be had.

But main main point is, people who are "losing for Hughes", are really losing for the 4th overall.

2019 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

From here you can speculate more.

 

[jkutswings]

But main main point is, people who are "losing for Hughes", are really losing for the 4th overall.

2019 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

From here you can speculate more.

From the site you linked, you can also see that worst record can fall no farther than 4th, and has the best odds of any team in the league of landing Hughes.

Yes, it's a coin flip whether they stay in the top 3, but the second worst record stands a good chance at dropping to 5th, and the third worst record could drop to 6th, and so on...

It's mitigation more than anything else. If the Wings at least remain bottom 2, they're guaranteed at least a top 5 pick, and might do even better. Now maybe your draft board shows little to no difference between players in the 3-7 slots, but mine doesn't - I most definitely want to be in the following group:

Hughes
Kakko
Dach
Cozens
Byram

Now I know that Podkolzin is in that top 6 as well, but based on the here and now, I want one of the above players, so I want one of the top 5 picks to guarantee I get one.

 

[Henkka]

Dom Luszczyszyn's projected final Standings.

 

[Mister Ed]

I kinda hope at this point that the Wings are at least IN the games they lose. Nothing sucks more than seeing the lack of effort in a game for me.

 

[lhsgolf19]

Good Night for the Tank... Both the Devils & Flyers win in Reg

Ottawa... 43
Los Angeles... 44
Chicago... 45
Detroit... 45
New Jersey... 45
Philadelphia... 46