2018-19 stats and underlying metrics thread

[Romang67]

Old thread: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...ics-thread-mod-updated-season.1717777/page-26

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[garret9]

I like numbers.

 

[Whileee]

I like pictures, too.

Data visualization is still in its infancy.

 

[Gil Fisher]

edit: 2017/18 Regular Season 5v5 corsi

 

[Gil Fisher]

more 2017-18 Regular Season stats for reference; still 5v5; sorted by scoring chances

*from Natural Stat Trick dot com

 

[ulf]

Hello Toby.

 

[garret9]

For our resident "Fancystats denier" on Byfuglien over the past three seasons combined:

By Corsi, Jets control 2.55 shots per hundred more with Byfuglien on the ice than on the bench.

By Goals, Jets control 4.17 goals per hundred more with Byfuglien on the ice than on the bench.

Byfuglien ranks 1st in Corsi, and the only people ahead of him in goals are super small sample, sheltered players (Strait and Poolman).

So... about that fancystats don't account for Buff...

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Hello Toby.

That jumped out at me, too. Sure doesn't match the eye test.

 

[jetsforever]

Hello Toby.

I'd rather have him than Morrow or Chiarot right now

For our resident "Fancystats denier" on Byfuglien over the past three seasons combined:

By Corsi, Jets control 2.55 shots per hundred more with Byfuglien on the ice than on the bench.

By Goals, Jets control 4.17 goals per hundred more with Byfuglien on the ice than on the bench.

Byfuglien ranks 1st in Corsi, and the only people ahead of him in goals are super small sample, sheltered players (Strait and Poolman).

So... about that fancystats don't account for Buff...

So glad we kept him over Ladd

 

[csk]

That jumped out at me, too. Sure doesn't match the eye test.

Matched my eye test

 

[Gil Fisher]

That jumped out at me, too. Sure doesn't match the eye test.

I'm guessing that a fair bit of defending happens away from the puck and that's usually a problem for the eye test.

 

[Maukkis]

Replacing Enstrom's defensive impact will be tough, but the kicker is that last year, he was among the worst NHL defensemen at producing any kind of offense. I reckon Kulikov is our best shot at this point, provided that he can stay healthy.

 

[Maukkis]

Often times I find the panic about our C depth a little premature.

- a lot obviously is contingent on how repeatable Lowry's success from last year is. I don't think we should expect him to remain a 58% Corsi player, but if he can get even close to what he was this past year, we're good.
- not only are they overhyped and -rated, but Toronto also seems to use cheat codes. Shame on those f***s.
- the Kings down the middle: Kopitar and guys. Guessing the Isles' brass is trying to make a Kopitar out of Barzal.
- in a universe where 'it's impossible to trade for centers', St. Louis has added ~37 GAR's worth of Cs in the last 14 months. Montreal remains dead last, and Bergevin has a job.

 

[surixon]

Often times I find the panic about our C depth a little premature.

- a lot obviously is contingent on how repeatable Lowry's success from last year is. I don't think we should expect him to remain a 58% Corsi player, but if he can get even close to what he was this past year, we're good.
- not only are they overhyped and -rated, but Toronto also seems to use cheat codes. Shame on those ****s.
- The Kings down the middle: Kopitar and guys.

Good post. I figured we'd still easily be top 10. Sure Lowry will have to have another good season but I think Little bounces back to offset any decline from Lowry.

 

[DashingDane]

Jets GAR from the past season (@EvolvingWild)

Looks like next seasons TOI should be split evenly between the two top lines if we go with the same line combos and want to maximize our talent.