2018-19 Roster talk; Part three

[BernieParent]

Toronto Maple Leafs - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
When you look at the Leafs for next season and check their cap space; they are basically ****ed. A little over $23M in space with big names to sign- Matthews, Gardiner, Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, etc. Their available money isn't going to get it done. Matthews is going to get $10M or so in a long term deal from the Leafs or get offer sheeted for that amount by someone-Rags, Isles, or the like. Heck even the Flyers could do that. Gardiner will get at least $6M per, Marner $7 +/-. Nylander's signing crushed their cap space. Other players saw what he got and now they're going to line up behind that contract. There's not money for Kapanen or others; either they move them or lose them. Its why, IMO, signing Tavares was not a good idea. The Leafs have more good players than they have cash.

I am pretty sure they will deal Gardiner or let him walk. I fiddled with numbers and it isn't impossible, but Matthews and Marner would have to sign pretty modest deals (~$10 and $7, for the sake of argument), and they would need to fill most every other spot with a ~$1 million contract (Sparks, Marincin, Liljegren, Lindholm, Johansson, etc.). Even then, they would have a 21-man roster, including an even weaker D corps, and about $5 million to sign Kapanen. Not realistic but doable.

 

[deadhead]

Observations from Elba:

Hakstol 12-15-4
Gordon 3-7-2

[bold are players who clearly improved]
Forwards:
TK: Corsi 58.55, GF/GA 24/18, SCF/CA 200/141, HDCF/CA 79/60 - Corsi 51.46, GF/GA 6/7, SCF/CA 72/73, HDCF/CA 24/29
Giroux: Corsi 56.44, GF/GA 30/25, SCF/CA 217/183, HDCF/CA 78/87 - Corsi 52.78, GF/GA 8/9, SCF/CA 77/68, HDCF/CA 25/22
Couts: Corsi 55.47, GF/GA 24/22, SCF/CA 210/185, HDCF/CA 73/80 - Corsi 52.15, GF/GA 5/10, SCF/CA 87/68, HDCF/CA 29/25
Voracek: Corsi 46.99, GF/GA 19/26, SCF/CA 188/216, HDCF/CA 87/90 - Corsi 52.56, GF/GA 5/9, SCF/CA 69/63, HDCF/CA 26/22
JVR: Corsi 48.81, GF/GA 7/9, SCF/CA 71/82, HDCF/CA 36/34 - Corsi 50.62, GF/GA 7/6, SCF/CA 61/65, HDCF/CA 28/26
Simmonds: Corsi 49.66, GF/GA 16/18, SCF/CA 158/168, HDCF/CA 64/66 - Corsi 49.07, GF/GA 3/9, SCF/CA 59/61, HDCF/CA 23/19
Patrick: Corsi 47.06, GF/GA 14/11, SCF/CA 143/149, HDCF/CA 73/58 - Corsi 55.90, GF/GA 3/4, SCF/CA 37/30, HDCF/CA 12/14
Lindblom: Corsi 49.67, GF/GA 13/15, SCF/CA 144/115, HDCF/CA 68/40 - Corsi 59.56, GF/GA 1/5, SCF/CA 48/28, HDCF/CA 18/12

Defensemen:
Provorov: Corsi 48.31, GF/GA 24/31, SCF/CA 253/266, HDCF/CA 108/109 - Corsi 49.65, GF/GA 3/14, SCF/CA 96/90, HDCF/CA 37/34
Ghost: Corsi 51.31, GF/GA 16/26, SCF/CA 213/206, HDCF/CA 83/87 - Corsi 53.76, GF/GA 7/5, SCF/CA 94/74, HDCF/CA 34/25
Sanheim: Corsi 55.41, GF/GA 24/19, SCF/CA 197/134, HDCF/CA 98/59 - Corsi 50.12, GF/GA 5/13, SCF/CA 86/87, HDCF/CA 30/35
[14.61 minutes v 18.53 minutes 5x5]
Gudas: Corsi 54.46, GF/GA 17/13, SCF/CA 175/130, HDCF/CA 86/52 - Corsi 57.14, GF/GA 8/6, SCF/CA 82/54, HDCF/CA 31/12
Hagg: Corsi 47.33, GF/GA 24/19, SCF/CA 192/242, HDCF/CA 89/90 - Corsi 47.63, GF/GA 5/7, SCF/CA 73/82, HDCF/CA 28/32

Eyeball:

Voracek is shooting more and while erratic, he is scoring more goals. Helps him to play with Lindblom.
Sanheim is no longer sheltered, and his performance reflects that tougher competition, his numbers are meh the last 12 games, still climbing the learning curve. Don't like him with Provorov, doesn't feel like a good fit long-term. Played better with Gudas who is doing just fine w/o Travis.
Lindblom needs to be with Patrick, big jump, Patrick is hard to track due to injuries, he's been more careless with Gordon but more aggressive on offense, a work in progress, still has great potential as a two way center.

Giroux is a great scorer, but was exposed defensively at center, which is why he's back at LW.
Couts has been sloppy this year, more mistakes than I can remember. The 1st line has struggled against top 1st lines this year.
TK isn't really a 1st line winger yet, he's playing a better two way game (though he slipped under Gordon and got demoted for a game), but he lacks elite skating, fast straight line but limited "shake and bake" and his shot isn't top notch yet - but he's only 21.

PK turned around weeks before the coaching change.
PP still sucks with a new coach.

Doubt Q would have much more success here than he had in Chicago last year (76 points). Until the goalies are fixed (hopefully, Hart will grow up this year and be ready to start next year), no coach has a prayer. And the talent isn't as good as some claim.

The real problem on this team, other than goalie, is lack of speed/quickness and misfit talent.
1) one of the smallest teams plays a "big team" game. Physical, conservative, deliberate b/c they have to against talented teams.
2) lack of explosive speed, TK is fast in a straight line, but when you watch top players (Gaudreau, etc) against the Flyers, you see the speed/quickness gap, who on the Flyers make opposing players back up? They don't scare anyone.
3) lack of scoring skill, who can shoot? Need a couple top snipers who can close the deal, not just muck in front of the net.
4) lack of good fit, Raffl, Laughton belong on 4th line, no 3C, JVR and Simmonds bad fit on the same line, D-men don't line up well together.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

There’s zero chance that a Simmonds trade would look like that.

Unless of course Fletcher is as useless as he currently appears.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

We’ll see but I’m guessing Bill’s giving opposing GM’s too much credit.

 

[gertbfrobe16]

yea extra draft picks shoulden't be what we are looking for. unless they have another deal to flip them to fill a need on the team.

 

[deadhead]

Since this year is shot anyway, extra draft picks are fine, filling the war chest for June.

 

[TheKingPin]

My sense is that Kapanen and Gudas have roughly equivalent value. Not sure why the extra pieces would be involved.

I don’t like most proposals involving Gudas because he’s one of 3 capable defensemen on the roster and he’s signed for another season. Why take a step back for next season? Gudas would be an important player for next season and a possible playoff run. I’d rather have both Myers and Gudas than one or the other.

The interest in trading the above average NHL talent on the Flyers signed beyond this season makes no sense to me. Prospects can get opportunities by clearing the bottom 6 and the bottom pair. There is no reason to gamble with the prospects by trading NHL players. That approach could likely lead to more waiting.

Simmonds, Hagg, Raffl, Weal, and a goalie, if healthy enough to be traded, could garner substantial net value if moved by the TDL. Focus there.

I don’t think Gudas alone gets you kapanen now. But I could be wrong.

You could trade Hagg instead of Gudas but Gudas likely has more value. I personally do not think it’s a step back playing Morin and Myers over those two.

 

[TheKingPin]

yea extra draft picks shoulden't be what we are looking for. unless they have another deal to flip them to fill a need on the team.

I’d rather not trade Simmonds for picks. If it’s a first that’s better but we should be looking for a young roster player that fits the need of speed.

If we traded jake then I’d like futures with the intention to use all of his cap this summer on adding several big UFAs

 

[deadhead]

Picks are a valuable trade commodity in June, it's not like any player we pick up is going to make a difference the next three months.
So go for value.

 

[Here4ThaLids]

Could someone please remind me of the roster status cutoff for the 8th year of an extension? Is it the deadline, or has it already passed? I have no idea.

Related: regarding guys like Stone, it's going to be much harder to attract them from the bottom of the league, even with overpayment, but an extra year of overpayment would be an attractive selling point no one else could offer.

 

[deadhead]

I think a lot of players read the trade press and know how deep the Flyers prospect pool is, and that the team has the resources to contend very shortly - so they'll see this season as more of an anomaly. It will help to hire a respected coach or top young coach immediately after the season.

 

[wankstifier]

I don’t think Gudas alone gets you kapanen now. But I could be wrong.

You could trade Hagg instead of Gudas but Gudas likely has more value. I personally do not think it’s a step back playing Morin and Myers over those two.

Gudas has value to the Flyers beyond this season. It’s worth keeping him and Myers and Morin for next season.

Hagg is the expendable one. He’s one of the most replaceable players on the team

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Simmonds needs to go ASAP. Replace him with the top guy on this list.

1996
NAK

1997
Vorobyev
Kase
Laczynski*
Allison*
Twarynski

1998
Bunnaman
Rubtsov

1999
Strome
Cates*
Sushko
Ratcliffe
Frost
Lycksell*
JOB*

2000
Farabee*

Lol
Years are just a tad off

 

[wankstifier]

Lol
Years are just a tad off

They’re birth years

 

[Striiker]

Lol
Years are just a tad off

Those are birth years.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Could someone please remind me of the roster status cutoff for the 8th year of an extension? Is it the deadline, or has it already passed? I have no idea.

Related: regarding guys like Stone, it's going to be much harder to attract them from the bottom of the league, even with overpayment, but an extra year of overpayment would be an attractive selling point no one else could offer.

Maybe so - the idea is perfectly rational - but at the same time, this organization has a certain cachet that hasn't been completely eroded by Chief/Jeff/Gordo and the failings since 2010. In addition to being able to pay (both because of our financial solvency and the cap space), I think we could sell pretty much any free agent - at least the ones who are susceptible to being sold on an idea rather than money - on the vision of bringing the orange and black back to prominence. Panarin won't give a **** beyond the paycheck and maybe his relationship with Q (or whatever, just using that as an example), but some of the others may buy into that.

We desperately need to get that coaching hire right. Everything else is going to depend on that.

 

[wankstifier]

Those are birth years.

Am I 12 years old?

 

[Striiker]

Am I 12 years old?

We’re twins now.

 

[The Madrigal]

Meltzer is out of his mind if he thinks that's all the Flyers will get for Simmonds. All you have to do is go back and look at what similar players in recent years have returned at the deadline.

 

[TheKingPin]

Gudas has value to the Flyers beyond this season. It’s worth keeping him and Myers and Morin for next season.

Hagg is the expendable one. He’s one of the most replaceable players on the team

I’d love to trade Hagg over Gudas. Can’t see Toronto thinking the same.

 

[Curufinwe]

Gudas has value to the Flyers beyond this season. It’s worth keeping him and Myers and Morin for next season.

Hagg is the expendable one. He’s one of the most replaceable players on the team

New management seem to agree. As a 3rd pairing LD I really don't mind Hagg, but seeing him used as a first pairing RD ahead of Ghost and Sanheim was infuriating. It wasn't good for the team, or for his own development. Ideally he should be playing with Myers, who could cover for his weaknesses.

NHL.com - Stats

 

[NicolasAubeKubel]

Farabee-Hughes-Giroux
JVR-Couturier-Konecny
Lindblom-Patrick-Frost
Raffl(Rubtsov eventually)-Vorobyev-NAK

Provorov-Myers
Sanheim-Gudas(Zamula eventually)
Morin-Ghost

Hart

 

[baudib1]

Giroux should play center.

 

[deadhead]

No he shouldn't, Giroux still has his offensive chops, but that experiment ended quickly b/c he's not big and fast enough to handle today's centers.
And why burn out his legs at center when you can keep him fresh at LW with a center like Couts?

People need to be patient with Patrick, it's not like he's stinking out the joint, his scoring is down, but the revolving door of forwards hasn't helped, and he is a smart, defensively responsible center who has the skill package to be a top scorer, just keep him with Lindblom. He's all of 20, at this point in Giroux's career he was in the AHL, Couts was struggling in his second season. My only disappointment is that he didn't seem to add much strength last summer, something he needs to improve his game.

 

[TheKingPin]

Farabee-Hughes-Giroux
JVR-Couturier-Konecny
Lindblom-Patrick-Frost
Raffl(Rubtsov eventually)-Vorobyev-NAK

Provorov-Myers
Sanheim-Gudas(Zamula eventually)
Morin-Ghost

Hart

You lost summer, Voracek, and amac. That’s a ton more cap space. Hopefully we would add Panarin and stone or Panarin and EK to that team...if we got EK I’d trade Ghost for a high possible lottery 1st and A prospect +. Keep the young cheap talent coming.