tsujimoto74
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- May 28, 2012
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2018-19 Roster Speculation Pt. 3: Started from the bottom now we're here
- Thread starter tsujimoto74
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TSN Power Rankings: Sabres Keep Finding Ways to Win
What a difference a year makes for the red-hot Buffalo Sabres.
Last year after their first 24 games of the season, the Sabres were 6-14-4 and the worst-ranked team in TSN's weekly 7-Eleven Power Rankings. Buffalo went on to finish dead last in the overall NHL standings in 2017-18 with just 25 wins and 62 points.
Twenty-four games into the 2018-19 season, the Sabres look like a legitimate playoff contender. They’re 16-6-2 and on a nine-game winning streak – one off their franchise record set in 1983-84 and matched again in 2006-07 – to move up four spots to No. 1 this week in our 7-Eleven Power Rankings, according to consensus rankings formulated by the TSN Power Ranking panel of Ray Ferraro, Jeff O’Neill, Jamie McLennan, Craig Button and Darren Dreger.
The Sabres, ranked No. 24 in our second Power Rankings of the season, could turn out to be this season’s version of the 2017-18 Colorado Avalanche. The Avs finished dead last in 2016-17 and then made the playoffs last year. The Sabres also look like a team that’s on track to reach the postseason (for the first time in eight seasons) after finishing dead last the previous season. They’re getting first-rate goaltending from Carter Hutton (11-6-1, .919 save percentage) and Linus Ullmark (5-0-1, .926 SV%) while the additions of No. 1 draft pick Rasmus Dahlin and former Carolina Hurricane Jeff Skinner (also a former No. 1 pick and Calder Trophy winner) have complemented captain Jack Eichel, who leads the team in scoring with 28 points.
What a difference a year makes for the red-hot Buffalo Sabres.
Last year after their first 24 games of the season, the Sabres were 6-14-4 and the worst-ranked team in TSN's weekly 7-Eleven Power Rankings. Buffalo went on to finish dead last in the overall NHL standings in 2017-18 with just 25 wins and 62 points.
Twenty-four games into the 2018-19 season, the Sabres look like a legitimate playoff contender. They’re 16-6-2 and on a nine-game winning streak – one off their franchise record set in 1983-84 and matched again in 2006-07 – to move up four spots to No. 1 this week in our 7-Eleven Power Rankings, according to consensus rankings formulated by the TSN Power Ranking panel of Ray Ferraro, Jeff O’Neill, Jamie McLennan, Craig Button and Darren Dreger.
The Sabres, ranked No. 24 in our second Power Rankings of the season, could turn out to be this season’s version of the 2017-18 Colorado Avalanche. The Avs finished dead last in 2016-17 and then made the playoffs last year. The Sabres also look like a team that’s on track to reach the postseason (for the first time in eight seasons) after finishing dead last the previous season. They’re getting first-rate goaltending from Carter Hutton (11-6-1, .919 save percentage) and Linus Ullmark (5-0-1, .926 SV%) while the additions of No. 1 draft pick Rasmus Dahlin and former Carolina Hurricane Jeff Skinner (also a former No. 1 pick and Calder Trophy winner) have complemented captain Jack Eichel, who leads the team in scoring with 28 points.
joshjull
Registered User
Still looking for them to find an upgrade on Beaulieu, Nelson externally.
Team Cozens
Registered User
Team Cozens
Registered User
What defensive lineup do want to see? Or who do you want replaced more specifically?
McCabe - Risto
Dahlin - Bogo
Scandella - Nelson
Beaulieu
missingmika
Registered User
- Dec 9, 2006
- 4,517
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He's obviously talking about Beaulieu and Nelson for Klesla V2.0 to make room for Piliut
CrazyPsycho
Elite Drafter
- Sep 25, 2003
- 17,670
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This is like the happiest team Ive ever seen
Long-term, Dahlin is the only guy who I'm attached to. Seeing Risto in an offensive deployment, non-24+ minute/night role also works, but the rest of the defense leaves some room for improvement. Bogosian's return has been a nice story, but his cache with me as a healthy every night player is limited for me. So too McCabe but more from what's between his ears, as a player who's playing better but we've seen these stretches more than once in more than one season and they're almost always straddled by play that is detrimental to his partner and the team as a whole. Scandella looks like last year's workload wore him down. Trusting Beaulieu and Nelson as anything other than filler also doesn't leave me thrilled.
If there is someone to be pried out somewhere, looking at the Kings sitting on Muzzin and Martinez for example. Ceci out of Ottawa might be another player to target if they continue their purge. Then age out some of the chaff while percolating guys up from below (Pilut first, then probably Borgen and/or Guhle).
Djp
Registered User
I have said 11.5 pts over each 10g sednent gives a team 92pts over 80 which is roughly the playoff line.
Right now they are 34pts where the 30 game line is 34.5 .
Thus can get skewed under the current playoff system where a shitty division could have a 79 pts team get the 3rd WC spot while the 6th team in the other division has over 100 pts.
The playoff line will vary from year to year because of the amount of separation their is between 7-10 teams or 6-12.
If you have a season with npbig separation between 1-9 and rest then the line gets higher, but if ther isn’t much separation in the pack then thus can pull the line down.
Doug Prishpreed
Registered User
I’ve got two words for you:
Matt Hunwick
I need a spit-take emoji. Bleh. Mucho bleh. I can't wait for the Hunwick-Tennyson second pairing, PK deployments in the same way I can't wait for inquisitional re-enactments of hot coals in my eyes. It may achieve similar levels of pain.
I don’t nexessarily disagree with you. But I think Dahlin coming in taking over as the #1 slots everyone down a bit to where they’re more comfortable.
McCabe has been up and down. But last season he was hampered with injuries. And he is 25 where he might now really be getting comfortable with his role on this team and in the league in general.
Bogosian is always a question. But he’s been solid for us whenever he does play, so I’m considering it a bonus.
Scandella is either feeling last year, playing injured, or getting old. He’s a middle to bottom pairing guy, mostly bottom.
Beaulieu & Nelson are both 7D’s for their career. That is pretty clear. But there are teams that could really use a player like Beaulieu on their back end with his skating ability, plus he does add some grit and isn’t afraid to muck it up.
Ristolainen in my opinion will be the player who benefits the most from Dahlin’s presence long term. He’ll likely be placed in a 2nd pairing role (we can already see the past 4-5 games his minutes being reduced and his play becoming less frazzled).
So out of that group I’d say we have a #1(Dahlin), a #3(Ristolainen), & a number #5(McCabe).
Bogosian when healthy is a solid #4, and between Scandella, Beaulieu & Nelson we can get decent #6 play.
Between Guhle, Pilut & Borgen, I’m hoping one of them can turn into a #4, and one of the other two can be a #6.
The main need is a #2. Whether they trade for one (Trouba), try to sign one, or develop from within (Pilut, Guhle, 2019 or 2020 1st Round picks) remains to be seen.
But overall I would say I’m ok with a good portion of what we have. Inprovements & upgrades need to be made, for sure. But we’re about half way (and maybe a bit further with the depth and upside we have in the system) to a really really good d-core in my estimation.
La Cosa Nostra
Caporegime
- Jun 25, 2009
- 14,073
- 2,335
58 games left. Win 30 of them and we are in. 30-28 with some of the 28 losses being in OT/SO. 60 points from the wins and say 4 losses being in OT puts us at 98.
I would love to see Botts work his magic to move Okposo off the team. He has played much better then expected but he still makes far too much for far too long.
I expect us to let Scandella walk after next year. Beaulieu is not going to get qualified at his current pay.
Next year barring trade or free agency...
Scandella-Risto
McCabe-Dahlin
Pilut-Bogo
Nelson
Let Bealieu walk. Give Guhle one more year to develop then next season he is the first D callup. Maybe Samuelsson goes pro this summer, plays in Roch in 19-20 and is in the lineup in 2020 as one of the internal replacements for Bogo and Scandella.
McCabe can stay if he can be signed in the 3.5 range.
In 2020...
Dahlin-Risto
McCabe-Pilut
Guhle-Samuelsson
Not a bad D corps with internal replacements. Luckily we will have $ to use to sign or trade for D help.
Up front we are set in terms of major pieces.
A potential 2020-2021 lineup...
Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart
Thompson-Mittelstadt-Olofsson
Sheary-ERod-Nylander
Berglund-Larsson-Girgs
That isnt counting any potential 1st round prospects we could be adding. It is very conservative to predict in 2 more years that Nylander and Olofsson make the jump.
Pretty much Botts needs to keep the following band together...Skinner and Sheary at LW, Eichel and Mitts as the top 6 centers and Reinhart and Nylander on RW. Thompson and Olofsson as our middle 6 wingers. Again this is without predicting trades or outside help.
By 2020-2021 I expect Botts finds a way to move Okposo. He would only have 3 years left in 2020 with less $ and a higher cap hit. We will need Okposo moved when Dahlin is signed for 8/96 or 8/100. We also have to worry about a Risto extension in a year or so.
I would offer Risto 8/50 for his next deal. Decent raise from his current salary and gives him security. Risto is only 24 and has another decade of top 4 play. RHD are extremely hard to find so Risto must be kept..I am not worried, Botts is one of the Best and smartest gms in the league and a cap wizard. He knows if he can keep the Rasmi signed long term for ~18 mil per in a few years is fair value. I also think that Risto can continue to play big minutes if he is paired with Dahlin for them. Paying the Rasmus' big $ will not hurt our D corps as much if Risto is getting 24-25 a night and Dahlin 27-28. That leaves 68 minutes for the other 4 guys. Between Pilut, Guhle, Samuelsson and whatever other D we draft the next 2 years those 4 can round out the D corps.
Wow, going over all this we have a damn good team and an even brighter future. And just wait til we get our Marchessault or Point type player... a mid or late round pick who comes out of nowhere and is a top tier talent. Would love if Olofsson develops into a 30 goal sniper and Nylander develops into a 50-60 point winger that befits a #8 overall draft pick with his elite bloodlines. If Pops and big bro are star players Alex can be somewhat like that also.
I would love to see Botts work his magic to move Okposo off the team. He has played much better then expected but he still makes far too much for far too long.
I expect us to let Scandella walk after next year. Beaulieu is not going to get qualified at his current pay.
Next year barring trade or free agency...
Scandella-Risto
McCabe-Dahlin
Pilut-Bogo
Nelson
Let Bealieu walk. Give Guhle one more year to develop then next season he is the first D callup. Maybe Samuelsson goes pro this summer, plays in Roch in 19-20 and is in the lineup in 2020 as one of the internal replacements for Bogo and Scandella.
McCabe can stay if he can be signed in the 3.5 range.
In 2020...
Dahlin-Risto
McCabe-Pilut
Guhle-Samuelsson
Not a bad D corps with internal replacements. Luckily we will have $ to use to sign or trade for D help.
Up front we are set in terms of major pieces.
A potential 2020-2021 lineup...
Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart
Thompson-Mittelstadt-Olofsson
Sheary-ERod-Nylander
Berglund-Larsson-Girgs
That isnt counting any potential 1st round prospects we could be adding. It is very conservative to predict in 2 more years that Nylander and Olofsson make the jump.
Pretty much Botts needs to keep the following band together...Skinner and Sheary at LW, Eichel and Mitts as the top 6 centers and Reinhart and Nylander on RW. Thompson and Olofsson as our middle 6 wingers. Again this is without predicting trades or outside help.
By 2020-2021 I expect Botts finds a way to move Okposo. He would only have 3 years left in 2020 with less $ and a higher cap hit. We will need Okposo moved when Dahlin is signed for 8/96 or 8/100. We also have to worry about a Risto extension in a year or so.
I would offer Risto 8/50 for his next deal. Decent raise from his current salary and gives him security. Risto is only 24 and has another decade of top 4 play. RHD are extremely hard to find so Risto must be kept..I am not worried, Botts is one of the Best and smartest gms in the league and a cap wizard. He knows if he can keep the Rasmi signed long term for ~18 mil per in a few years is fair value. I also think that Risto can continue to play big minutes if he is paired with Dahlin for them. Paying the Rasmus' big $ will not hurt our D corps as much if Risto is getting 24-25 a night and Dahlin 27-28. That leaves 68 minutes for the other 4 guys. Between Pilut, Guhle, Samuelsson and whatever other D we draft the next 2 years those 4 can round out the D corps.
Wow, going over all this we have a damn good team and an even brighter future. And just wait til we get our Marchessault or Point type player... a mid or late round pick who comes out of nowhere and is a top tier talent. Would love if Olofsson develops into a 30 goal sniper and Nylander develops into a 50-60 point winger that befits a #8 overall draft pick with his elite bloodlines. If Pops and big bro are star players Alex can be somewhat like that also.
If we're talking long term:
Dahlin-XXXX
McCabe-Risto
Guhle-YYYY
XXXX isn't a role we can fill internally. I look to the cap issues in WPG and looking squarely at Trouba. If not him, i'm looking at every available option. That is where my assets and cap space is spent.
I certainly like Pilut's production in Rochester. I'd like to see what he can do at the NHL level, however.
Near term, I think we probably fill YYYY with Bogo and have Nelson as our 7th d-man. Borgen might be able to fill that role, eventually? Beaulieu probably isn't qualified this summer. I can't imagine us going after LHD with Guhle/Pilut doing well in Rochester. Any upgrade to Nelson probably comes via the Waiver wire or a NCAA UFA signing. Something that doesn't cost us any assets.
unte93
Registered User
- Mar 27, 2009
- 102
- 22
You don't need a number 2 - you need a player who compliment your number 1 - having Dahlin and Risto to anchor their line is fine for me - just find their partners
The Dahlin lottery win is such a boon and yes, he should allow them to push people into smaller but still useful roles. I'm not sure a true #2 is the guy to get, but more of what Jeff Beukeboom was to Brian Leetch (safe, strong takeout defender while Leetch roamed). I'm not convinced that it is Bogosian or McCabe because frankly they don't typically think the game in the manner of safe players even if they have the physical elements to their games. Risto we know isn't in that mold, so... shopping for someone to be a long-term partner for Dahlin instead.
And it might just be Borgen. He's mobile, but thinks defense-first. He's tough as can be and does the sort of mucking about in front of the net and along the wall to isolate his check to allow others an easier retrieval and exit. Perhaps he's the answer there, but until he's in Buffalo, the option to fill that role is open.
Guhle's struggle is real. He's gone from heavily pimped due likely to being the only defense prospect (and one with an eye-popping ability to skate) to rightly criticized for the recent downturn in his play. And not to beat the kid up, it's just his second professional season and to have struggles in the growth of his game is likely to be expected, yet they should still be looking to do better. If he rounds back into form, great. He may yet still be a season or more away though.
Pilut for his smarts and mobility should be someone who draws in sooner rather than later. I'm curious to see how his defensive game evolves and how he holds up to the size of NHL players in the relatively confined spaces of NA rinks, but there is a lot to like there.
That leaves Borgen from the Amerks trio.
While I love Jacob Bryson, he looks very much like a 3rd pair option more in the mold of Matt Grzelcyk and could be an interesting guy down the road since he can certainly think and move the game the way the current regime preaches. His play will probably dictate if they have the risk appetite to have more than one small defenseman in the lineup, but if he keeps being an all-situation horse for the Friars... things look good there.
Agreed. That’s basically what I meant when I said a #2 and a #4. They need to find long term complimentary players for Ristolainen & Dahlin.
Djp
Registered User
I expect him to trade Beaulieu for a pick then call up Pilut
Borgen comes up before Samuelson.
I have said Before McCabe is extended for 4 yrs acts as a bridge to Samuelsson.
a RHD picked with one of the first can bridge to when Risto's contract ends in 2022
Sherry is a UFA in 2020. Not keeping both Larsson and Girgs given the prospects in the system can play 4th line
There is Malone, Smith, Oregan, Asplund, Davisddon, and others
no reason to rush any 1sts picked. picking in 19 and 20 means we don't see them till 22/23 season
KO can be moved in expansion draft. That might give room for Sherry to be signed. Id probably look at using it wlsewhere. You have to anticipate $9M for Dahlin in 2021
in 2022/23 start Risto will be 27. If I was resigning him Id max it at 4 years.,
Have we figured out if Dahlin's long term future is at LD or RD? He plays both well. I would suspect it is LD but finding high end reliable RD is a much tougher task.
There are some really interesting options at D in the system if they continue to develop. Borgen could be a solid D for a decade in the league. Son of Kjell looks like a lock to be a pro D as well. I think Pilut is bound to be a good player for the Sabres. His numbers in the SEL and AHL point to a young player that knows how to adjust and play his game in any situation.
Laaksonen is super intriguing. If he continues on his development curve they might have a real offensive gem on their hands. It will be interesting to see if Bryson's size will translate at the pro level but his numbers look real solid at the college level.
If they could find a way to acquire a Muzzin then that would be great but overall the D corps going forward is in the best shape it has been in a long while. Winning a young, generational plug and play Dman in the draft might have a little to do with that.
I wonder how they envision this defense long term.
Let’s say they have Dahlin, Ristolainen and McCabe each anchoring one of their pairs.
What type of player would they want with each. I know most people are thinking more of a stay-at-home type with Dahlin. But I wonder if they would prefer to give him another solid puck moving option.
They want to play with speed and pace. All 3 of those guys play physical. I wonder if we could see Pilut, Borgen and another guy similar to Pilut come in long term? But again, as others have said, a lot depends on who they want to pair with Dahlin, and what type of player next to him brings out his best game.
Let’s say they have Dahlin, Ristolainen and McCabe each anchoring one of their pairs.
What type of player would they want with each. I know most people are thinking more of a stay-at-home type with Dahlin. But I wonder if they would prefer to give him another solid puck moving option.
They want to play with speed and pace. All 3 of those guys play physical. I wonder if we could see Pilut, Borgen and another guy similar to Pilut come in long term? But again, as others have said, a lot depends on who they want to pair with Dahlin, and what type of player next to him brings out his best game.
Djp
Registered User
How bout this...
Skinner-Eichel-Risto
Sheary-Mitts-KO
Thompson-Erod-Reinhart
Berglund-Larsdon-Girgensons
McCabe-Dahlin
Scandella-Bogosian
Pilut-Nelson
It’s also good for the playoffs dressing 6 Dmen in case of injury.
Skinner-Eichel-Risto
Sheary-Mitts-KO
Thompson-Erod-Reinhart
Berglund-Larsdon-Girgensons
McCabe-Dahlin
Scandella-Bogosian
Pilut-Nelson
It’s also good for the playoffs dressing 6 Dmen in case of injury.
What's your take on Laaksonen and Sammuelssons long term projections?
projections
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