What do you think Kotkaniemi is doing in Montreal right now? What if Hayton played 3rd line and Richie played 4th just for the sake of semantics? These line numbers are arbitrary and mean nothing...
Speculation: 2018-19 Roster Discussion #3 - Not so bad at the moment
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Yeah, but Montreal have a coach and a GM who are interested in developing K's talent...
hmmmm. Let' see if I have this right, Chayka alluded to everything getting disrupted by Columbus going a bit off board so this was before poolparty fell to #4.
Afterward he says Peter (Oilers GM) said he's keeping his pick.
So we'd have given up assets to take a player at #4 who was in no way going to be selected at #4?
Even if poolparty goes #3 in the world where this trade takes place I have a very hard time seeing Keller go before 6 anyway. Dubios was almost certainly going to go between 4-7 if he didn't get picked by Columbus.
Vancouver was pretty stuck on Juolevi far as post-draft reporting indicates so he was going #5 probably under any circumstance. Calgary still takes Tkachuk if he's there I'm pretty sure of otherwise they'd have taken Keller in reality.
So the only logical reason to trade with Edmonton for Keller at 4 is that Edmonton outright threatened to take Keller at 4 (before poolparty fell). And even if they had said that then I certainly would have assumed it was a bluff.
Or I suppose it's also possible that Chayka felt Keller was the surefire #4 talent in the draft and that he had to be in a position to take him even at a cost.
I don't really see any other way this counter factual makes sense.
Also this means Chayka had Keller rated above Tkachuk which has......not proven out at all so far. Though I guess it's better than having Juolevi above Tkachuk.
They had both Keller and Chychrun in the top 5.
Yes they were giving up assets to get Keller at 5.
You can listen to the podcast to hear Chayka say it. It's his direct words.
I did.
But having someone at #4 rank vs where you think you can actually manage to draft them are two different things. It's like Chayka went to the store and told the clerk the bag of lettuce he was buying actually has 20 ounces of lettuce instead of 16 and proceeded to offer them an extra 40 cents on top of the price marked.
I get the impression Chayka is not considering what the rest of the teams are doing with their picks before deciding he needs to trade up to get a player. Or at least he wasn't in 2016.
Basically It sounds to me like we got saved by Columbus going off board much like when we got saved by Maloney not making that crazy deal with Calgary for Ribeiro cause the NTC. Or even the Rust/Domi deal going away once Galchenyuk became an option.
Would u put Keller in top 5 today? We're there other teams also trying to move up to take him as alluded to in the podcast?
Sometimes you shoot your shot if you believe that strongly. It's similar to the Hayton pick in that regard.
Oh it definitely speaks to his mindset and interesting to know, I just think it's in some ways not the best approach. I'd rather walk out the draft with Keller in hand at #7 saying I got top 5 value at #7 than walk out the draft saying I got #5 value @ #5 and I had to pay extra to get it.
AM/Laine/Tkachuk are 1-3
After that it's pretty muddy between Keller/Dubois/McAvoy (not particularly fair to include Debincat probably for the purposes of the thought experiment)
He's in the range for 4-6, which is sort of why I'm not sold on this whole idea to begin with. If there was a player so good as to make the clear line for quality at #4 instead of #2 then moving into the top 4 seems more desirable to me. The line is very muddled right now.
It certainly wouldn't have been disastrous provided the cost wasn't something dumb.
But I'm more concerned with the thought process on the day of.
Here's how I see the draft going in the world where Columbus takes Puljujarvi where he's expected to go:
#4 Oilers: If they wanted Keller they'd have drafted him not be looking to sell the pick. So we'll say they take Tkachuk as BPA (with hindsight knowledge though he was considered in that range to begin with)
#5 Vancouver: Juolevi. I think they take him no matter what.
#6. Flames: TBH I have no idea who they'd take for sure, Dubois was above Keller on basically every draft list though so let's put him here.
#7 Coyotes: Still Keller
OR:
Someone else moved up to take exactly who we wanted at #4, Calgary takes Tkachuk @6 like they did in real life and we end up with Dubois (#5 on McKenzie's list) available at 7. That kicks ass. Dubois is currently a near PPG center, so we would not be demonstrably worse off if you took BPA.
But what actually happens is they take Chychrun at 7 and then we really are screwed.
So yeah I think Chayka's thought process is just a bit off in terms of navigating these moving pieces and I think this would have been pretty clear even on the day of if you already had the knowledge that we wanted Keller, Vancouver wanted Juolevi, and you knew what happened with Puljujarvi once the pick/nonpick happened by Columbus. If the rumors were out there we and others wanted Keller in the top 5 then surely Juolevi being coveted by Vancouver was known. The only wildcard is Calgary and I'd easily take that chance knowing I could still end up with Dubois if they took Keller instead.
To me the bigger actual concern would be if we're doing hindsight, that he thought Keller was outright better than Dubois and more importantly Tkachuk. He's flatly not better than Tkachuk to this point and it's a push with Dubois (for now). It seems to me that Chayka had an outsized impression of Keller relative to other players available in that area. So even if he was right that Keller has #4 or #5 OA value, the pieces on the board available at 6-7 are not so big of a drop off (if at all) from what we'd have gotten from Keller that giving up anything would have made sense.
Chayka read the draft class wrong but not catastrophically so. At least so far cause we're still talking about 20 year olds.
I suspect if we buy a scorer before the deadline it's going to be from one of the non playoff teams in the East. The teams around us in the West aren't going to move a guy to a team they're competing against. So who's a cheap buy on Detroit, New Jersey, Ottawa, etc.?
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
moosemeister
5,000 strong
If we can dump Panik, Archibald and one other crap player for Nyquist, Glendenning and Bertuzzi I’d be pretty stoked
Are we really talking about being buyers at the trade deadline? How does that make sense?
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
All true. If we’re going to trade for scoring it should be at the draft or in July. Prices are better then and we’re not making the playoffs anyway.
Moderate buyers. Nothing crazy. What does Detroit get for Vanek? Vancouver got almost nothing last year and he performed better and was a year younger. And Detroit got a 3rd for him the year before that. Maybe we can get him for a waiver eligible Roadrunner like Dauphin, who no longer fits into our long-term plans, at least at the NHL level.
Either that or pay for a player who will play here into the new couple of seasons. Depending on price of course.
Either that or pay for a player who will play here into the new couple of seasons. Depending on price of course.
Full NTC, doubt we see many of those waived for AZ at present time.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
Watching the WJC didn’t make me feel any better. Kid looked like an 18 year old version of Derek Stepan.The same way most of the mob was ready to lynch Chayka when we selected Hayton?
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
LeBrun stating in the Athletic that the Coyotes are trying to deal for Burakovsky:
LeBrun Notebook: What's wrong with the Leafs, Andre Burakovsky draws interest and Hurricanes remain active
LeBrun Notebook: What's wrong with the Leafs, Andre...
LeBrun Notebook: What's wrong with the Leafs, Andre Burakovsky draws interest and Hurricanes remain active
LeBrun Notebook: What's wrong with the Leafs, Andre...
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