2018-19 Regular Season Thread

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Magua

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Apr 25, 2016
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Patrick out 7-10 days, which is good news considering it wasn't totally obvious what the injury was.

They wouldn’t put a timeline on a head injury, which some people speculated on. So, it’s probably just a shoulder tweak or something.

But I’ve been thinking. You know how in sci-fi movies the government always wants to capture the alien to dissect it and learn about its powers? I’m not saying they should dissect Andrew MacDonald. But I’m not saying they shouldn’t dissect Andrew MacDonald.
 

Curufinwe

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Feb 28, 2013
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Curufinwe

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Feb 28, 2013
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I think my suggested 2nd line is more likely. Pretty sure that was an effective line in a few preseason games.
 

TB87

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn
May 30, 2018
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All data is susceptible to manipulation, one of the issues in academia is the prevalence of positive results (i.e. suggesting both bias by editors and gaming editors by researchers), "data mining" is a serious issue in the social sciences (and why Big Data is overblown, correlation is not causation).

However, more data is better than less, including anecdotal data as long as it's valid data.
Measurement error is always a problem, especially if you don't know the potential bias or inaccuracy.

Corsi has value, xGF% has value, relative and adjusted measures have value.
They're not the be all and end all, but used together can provide a picture of how a player is doing.
More detail can be found with entry and exit stats, etc.

But there are left out variables, MacDonald has given up fewer goals on ice than would be predicted by his xGA, one season could be a fluke, an extended period is more likely a trend due to an unobserved variable.

Of course, right now MacDonald has horrible stats because, well, he's been horrible, a strong correlation there.

I think it's because his legs aren't in game shape and he's a step behind, but at 32 he could be approaching the career cliff.
The next few weeks will tell the tale, if he doesn't pick up his game, he could be gone by Thanksgiving.

Gone by Thanksgiving as in traded or gone as in sent to Lehigh?
 

Captain Dave Poulin

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They wouldn’t put a timeline on a head injury, which some people speculated on. So, it’s probably just a shoulder tweak or something.

But I’ve been thinking. You know how in sci-fi movies the government always wants to capture the alien to dissect it and learn about its powers? I’m not saying they should dissect Andrew MacDonald. But I’m not saying they shouldn’t dissect Andrew MacDonald.

I agree with you, with the slight caveat that he doesn't appear to have actually healed anything, per se. Now, obviously I haven't seen his medical records, but even from an armchair diagnostician's standpoint, it's very difficult to measure the physical well-being of someone constantly in the midst of starfishing. What I would say is that he does resemble a healthy turnstile.
 
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sa cyred

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We all know damn well what’s going to happen.

"His fatness, I mean big body, takes up a lot of ice. That and his vet presence due to his age makes him a perfect fit as our 2nd line center."

Bill Clement "This is a terrific move by Hakstol. Lehtera is one of the best board players in the NHL. If they can get his board play, with more hitting by Hagg, the Flyers will be a team to fear"
 
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Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
Jun 2, 2013
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I said in the GDT I thought it was his shoulder, which seems possible.

On the last shift I remember seeing him, he kinda went into the boards weird in the offensive zone. He went for a hit, but impacted sideways in an odd way.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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No.

Vorobyev is a rookie, he's already gone from JVR to Laughton on his LW, now you want him to center the 2nd line with two new wingers, both inexperienced?
I'd rather move Weal up to the 2nd line and keep Vorobyev with more experienced wingers and let them develop some chemistry.
If it were say February, I would be more inclined to move Vorobyev up.
 

JojoTheWhale

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May 22, 2008
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I don't think it has anything to do with taking a particular stance on the topic. The major overarching point I'm trying to make is that the data is susceptible to being manipulated into whatever you want it to say. The data is more of a thought experiment rather than being able to accurately describe a player's on ice performance. Its almost impossible to definitely say that data A describes outcome A when there isn't much if any control variables applied.

I agree with most of this, although of course this is true with data from any walk of life. Definitely is a term that I don't like to use in this context for reasons I am positive I don't have to explain. I tend to go as far as "X would have to be an outlier" and then look for signs that could be the case within the micro tracking data we do have before making up my mind. Or to give an example, Laine has some observable and measurable traits that allow you to make an argument that he's an outlier in some ways. A potential 5/6 D does not.

Hockey is in a much more base data state than the other major sports at this point in time. Hopefully the NHLPA changes some of its stances and we get access to more minutiae, but I'm not at all hopeful with Fehr at the helm and another stoppage on the horizon.
 
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Adam Warlock

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Apr 15, 2006
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Patrick is going to be Coots 2.0. Injuries are going to curb his offensive totals for the next few seasons but he'll be strong defensively. He'll be labeled a 3C and eventually explode offensively around 24.
 

Captain Dave Poulin

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I agree with most of this, although of course this is true with data from any walk of life. Definitely is a term that I don't like to use in this context for reasons I am positive I don't have to explain. I tend to go as far as "X would have to be an outlier" and then look for signs that could be the case within the micro tracking data we do have before making up my mind. Or to give an example, Laine has some observable and measurable traits that allow you to make an argument that he's an outlier in some ways. A potential 5/6 D does not.

Hockey is in a much more base data state than the other major sports at this point in time. Hopefully the NHLPA changes some of its stances and we get access to more minutiae, but I'm not at all hopeful with Fehr at the helm and another stoppage on the horizon.

I agree, math does completely suck.
 

Captain Dave Poulin

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When did you become an Oregon fan? I feel like I missed something. I'm fully prepared for this to just be you wanting to use duck gifs.

It happened about 4 days ago. Someone mentioned "Ducks" and I was like "I really should be an Oregon fan - ducks rule!" and then Hollywood was all "If you become an Oregon fan, we can cheer together while I gamble away enough blouse money to send 12 underprivileged kids to college" and then I was all "Yeah, but I think Nike sucks, so I don't know" and then he goes "Yeah, but ducks!" and then I was like "Yeah, ducks ****ing rule, I'm all-in!" I haven't gone all-in on someone this fast since Starchild Mahomeslice b***h-slapped the Stillers.
 

DancingPanther

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Thoughts on the game. I work 3p-1:30a, typically watch replays when I get home. But today I had to work 8-4:30. 2 hours of sleep. Yay! Just got around to watching:
  1. MacDonald. Stupid turnover, gets bailed out, then gets a penalty. Literally every 3rd shift he f***s up anywhere from a bad way to the worst way. Shocking, I know.
  2. There was a play where G was cycling the puck on a delayed penalty, carrying it on the boards towards the offensive blueline, with his back to the Sens’ net. MacDonald was there, in close quarters. He just stood there. He didn’t cycle towards the net to give Giroux a backhanded drop pass for an outlet. He stood there, and G had to stickhandle around him back into our own zone. The man is f***ing braindead.
  3. Lehtera has been actually useful this season so far. Pretty dece on the PK and hasn’t really been hurting us 5v5. Particularly, I thought he played admirably today with elevated minutes. Honestly I can’t complain about him thus far. Yet. Shocking, I know.
  4. Laughton coming along nicely this year. Picking up some offensive slack, jumping in on plays, and much improved imo as a pker too. He just made a hell of a clear on the backhand on the 2nd to last Sens PP. Decisive, determined, and executed.
  5. However, the PK is atrocious. It’s so passive that they actually give up prime chances AROUND the box. Too many dumb PPs today. Weise, Lehtera x2 from what I remember.
  6. Sanhiem really shows flashes. He admittedly is struggling a little on D right now (although there’s nothing much he could do on that Tkachuk goal…that was a goalie goal), but he just made a play in the D zone where he gathered a pinballing puck in our own slot, carried it into the trapezoid, and banked a pass to the weak side winger who was wide open for an easy out. I get on guys like Amac because they’re bad and will always be bad. I just hope Hak sees the big picture with Sanhiem and realizes he might be shaky in the dzone right now but he won’t always be bad. I’m not making any guarantees though. Shocking, I know.
  7. Jake with #2 and a sweet spin move on that 6th goal. 5pts. Deadhead in shambles.
  8. Really sweet entry. 3 short passes, d to winger to voroboyev in the middle, who tried to dish it to the slot on the backhand to an open raffl breaking with speed as the top of the triangle on the entry. Just got tipped away. Would have been a golden chance. Kid has real vision. Made a sweet pickpocket in the offensive zone and the quick pass to Simmonds for the good chance.
  9. Perfect feather pass by Sanhiem to Konecny for the breakaway. Post. Shocking, I know.
  10. That dive Stone took at our blueline when Raffl tapped him on his stick was an atrocity
  11. Has anyone noticed that the PP2 has looked much better since the addition of Sanhiem? I’m just a fan.
  12. Konecny really has been making things happen. Opened up a breakaway on that nice touchpass from Lindblom in the NZ. Refreshing speed.
  13. I know OTT isn’t great, but they needed this. The debacle in the home opener, then Patrick out after what? 3 shifts? Gotta hand it to these fools. They battled hard, made smart plays, won board battles all night. PK was bad again though. Shocking, I know.
oKo4TkW.gif
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
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Gone by Thanksgiving as in traded or gone as in sent to Lehigh?

Does it matter?

Doubt MacDonald can be traded if he isn't good enough to keep as the #6 D-man, since even if we retain half, the other team still has to pay $2.5M a year prorated this season and next year.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
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21,617
Hakstol was right though he said it wrong, they were relying too much on skill in the sense of getting too cute, against Ottawa they attacked the net consistently, shot the damn puck and it paid off.

When the play is there, sure you want to see that that nice sequence of quick passes stick to stick, but a lot of the time the defenders do get in the way, last time I checked they get paid too. Which means if you can't pull off the beautiful play, time to get down and dirty, crash the net, set a screen, fire the puck, fight for the rebounds.

When you see those charts with the shots from the point, it's usually not the fault of the low/high, it's the unwillingness of forwards to get into the dirty areas, work themselves in position for passes or crash the net for deflections and rebound shots. Conversely, our D-men have to be more physical (or we need more physical D-man) because other teams are doing this on a regular basis.

I hope I lit a fire under Voracek, the Ottawa game shows how good he can be when he plays with intensity, skates hard his whole shift, and shoots the puck. He and Giroux don't have to shoot all the time, just enough to keep teams honest and to take advantage of scoring opportunities - better a good shot than too many passes hoping for a great shot that turn into busted plays.
 

Magua

Doer of Hoffific Things
Apr 25, 2016
37,157
154,047
Huron of the Lakes
Thoughts on the game. I work 3p-1:30a, typically watch replays when I get home. But today I had to work 8-4:30. 2 hours of sleep. Yay! Just got around to watching:
  1. MacDonald. Stupid turnover, gets bailed out, then gets a penalty. Literally every 3rd shift he ****s up anywhere from a bad way to the worst way. Shocking, I know.
  2. There was a play where G was cycling the puck on a delayed penalty, carrying it on the boards towards the offensive blueline, with his back to the Sens’ net. MacDonald was there, in close quarters. He just stood there. He didn’t cycle towards the net to give Giroux a backhanded drop pass for an outlet. He stood there, and G had to stickhandle around him back into our own zone. The man is ****ing braindead.
  3. Lehtera has been actually useful this season so far. Pretty dece on the PK and hasn’t really been hurting us 5v5. Particularly, I thought he played admirably today with elevated minutes. Honestly I can’t complain about him thus far. Yet. Shocking, I know.
  4. Laughton coming along nicely this year. Picking up some offensive slack, jumping in on plays, and much improved imo as a pker too. He just made a hell of a clear on the backhand on the 2nd to last Sens PP. Decisive, determined, and executed.
  5. However, the PK is atrocious. It’s so passive that they actually give up prime chances AROUND the box. Too many dumb PPs today. Weise, Lehtera x2 from what I remember.
  6. Sanhiem really shows flashes. He admittedly is struggling a little on D right now (although there’s nothing much he could do on that Tkachuk goal…that was a goalie goal), but he just made a play in the D zone where he gathered a pinballing puck in our own slot, carried it into the trapezoid, and banked a pass to the weak side winger who was wide open for an easy out. I get on guys like Amac because they’re bad and will always be bad. I just hope Hak sees the big picture with Sanhiem and realizes he might be shaky in the dzone right now but he won’t always be bad. I’m not making any guarantees though. Shocking, I know.
  7. Jake with #2 and a sweet spin move on that 6th goal. 5pts. Deadhead in shambles.
  8. Really sweet entry. 3 short passes, d to winger to voroboyev in the middle, who tried to dish it to the slot on the backhand to an open raffl breaking with speed as the top of the triangle on the entry. Just got tipped away. Would have been a golden chance. Kid has real vision. Made a sweet pickpocket in the offensive zone and the quick pass to Simmonds for the good chance.
  9. Perfect feather pass by Sanhiem to Konecny for the breakaway. Post. Shocking, I know.
  10. That dive Stone took at our blueline when Raffl tapped him on his stick was an atrocity
  11. Has anyone noticed that the PP2 has looked much better since the addition of Sanhiem? I’m just a fan.
  12. Konecny really has been making things happen. Opened up a breakaway on that nice touchpass from Lindblom in the NZ. Refreshing speed.
  13. I know OTT isn’t great, but they needed this. The debacle in the home opener, then Patrick out after what? 3 shifts? Gotta hand it to these fools. They battled hard, made smart plays, won board battles all night. PK was bad again though. Shocking, I know.
oKo4TkW.gif

cZIWbLQ.gif


I really feel like we can work on this formatting. Like maybe a couple sentences for each player you want to mention; maybe a few key things; more of a summarization. Hmmm. I want to help. Shocking, I know.
 

TB87

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn
May 30, 2018
6,073
17,122
Does it matter?

Doubt MacDonald can be traded if he isn't good enough to keep as the #6 D-man, since even if we retain half, the other team still has to pay $2.5M a year prorated this season and next year.

I understand that. I was just looking for clarification about what you meant by him being gone by Thanksgiving is all.
 
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