Prospect Info: 2018-19 Prospect Poll

[Surrounded By Ahos]

Last year Hadyn Fleury was our #1 prospect so yeah, we do suck at this.

To be fair we did the prospect ranking before the draft last year, so guys like Necas and Luostarinen weren’t eligible yet.

 

[DaveG]

Last year Hadyn Fleury was our #1 prospect so yeah, we do suck at this.

How so? Necas was a #12 pick at the time and didn't dominate the prospects camp. Fleury was a former #7 pick and was projected to be NHL ready, which he was. I don't think very many if any saw Necas taking the huge jump that he did this past season.

 

[Unsustainable]

How so? Necas was a #12 pick at the time and didn't dominate the prospects camp. Fleury was a former #7 pick and was projected to be NHL ready, which he was. I don't think very many if any saw Necas taking the huge jump that he did this past season.

Necas blew up in a year. If only we allowed Lindholm that year...

 

[tarheelhockey]

Necas was already a very good prospect before he took that jump. If Fleury was rated ahead of him at all, it was on the basis of so-called draft pedigree.

 

[MinJaBen]

Thanks @DaveG for all the work here. I really liked the all of the summaries of the players.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

How so? Necas was a #12 pick at the time and didn't dominate the prospects camp. Fleury was a former #7 pick and was projected to be NHL ready, which he was. I don't think very many if any saw Necas taking the huge jump that he did this past season.

Because if this is us projecting players as future NHLers, we were way off.

If this is us picking the value of the asset in a snapshot in time, the argument is better for Fleury to be #1, but I still wouldn’t be sure. I doubt anyone was trading us a 12OA pick for Fleury last year.

 

[DaveG]

Because if this is us projecting players as future NHLers, we were way off.

If this is us picking the value of the asset in a snapshot in time, the argument is better for Fleury to be #1, but I still wouldn’t be sure. I doubt anyone was trading us a 12OA pick for Fleury last year.

That's where there's always some dissonance when it comes to these rankings, and it is a valid point. It's one of the big reasons I tend toward labeling some guys as NHL ready in the descriptions (McKeown, Wallmark) vs talking about the upside (Necas, Goat, Kuokkanen). For me, I do tend to look at it as a snapshot of the time, and really if we had the time during the season to do so we could likely start doing mid-season ratings as well just to more accurately reflect changes throughout the season as this fluctuates. For instance there's no way that, after the WJC, basically anyone would have had Fleury still in front of Necas even though the former was already establishing themselves in the NHL as a top 6 dman.

FWIW when I make my individual list I try to balance out what the players upside is with how likely they are to hit it. I don't have my rankings from last year available at the moment, but I remember seeing Fleury as basically as sure bet to be at a minimum a top 6 dman, with 2nd pairing upside. Necas I saw as having a higher upside but less likely to get there at the time. Since then Necas has removed basically all doubt that ever may have existed about being an NHL player and the only question is how good he can get.

 

[Chrispy]

Because if this is us projecting players as future NHLers, we were way off.

If this is us picking the value of the asset in a snapshot in time, the argument is better for Fleury to be #1, but I still wouldn’t be sure. I doubt anyone was trading us a 12OA pick for Fleury last year.

This isn't a new issue, it's an annual debate how each poster values ceiling, floor, and likelihood to reach ceiling.

I think it's clear that Necas has developed faster than we anticipated, probably faster than everyone at the 2017 draft anticipated.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

This isn't a new issue, it's an annual debate how each poster values ceiling, floor, and likelihood to reach ceiling.

I think it's clear that Necas has developed faster than we anticipated, probably faster than everyone at the 2017 draft anticipated.

Not quite the difference I’m highlighting.

My first case highlights everything you’re discussing - floor, ceiling, likelihood of being an NHL player, and being a quality one. In that case, we were off base, as Necas looks to have a far more promising NHL career than Fleury at this point.

In the second case, it’s about who has more “value” to the franchise. As in, who would you rather trade. And, as I highlighted, we probably would’ve been happy to trade Fleury for a 12th OA pick and feel like we won the trade. However, just a month before, we trade a 12th OA pick for Marty Necas, and felt it was pretty even! So in that case, we also felt Necas was more valuable.

So in either case we were wrong, is my overarching point. Doesn’t mean much, keep in mind who’ve been our #1 prospect in the past.

 

[Mose]

Necas blew up in a year. If only we allowed Lindholm that year...

I know at other Canes-related sites, the large majority wanted Necas to play in North America--either CHL or AHL. I never understood that. These are 18 and 19-year-olds. For their development it makes sense that they would learn more being coached in their native tongue. Socially, it has to be difficult being in a different culture at that age. Letting Aho and Necas remain "at home" in the year following their draft worked. Those arguing for bringing foreign players to U.S./Canada are going to have make a better case.

 

[geehaad]

we probably would’ve been happy to trade Fleury for a 12th OA pick and feel like we won the trade.

Maybe I'm mistaken about the general tenor of this forum's opinion of Fleury one year ago, but my recollection is that many/most thought of Fleury as potentially being a top-4 defenseman in the mold of Calvin de Haan. I'm not sure that a #12OA pick is worth risking that potential; that pick could just as easily return another Zach Boychuk. Sure, a summer later, we see Fleury having less likelihood of reaching top-4 status, but that wasn't the case last year.

 

[CandyCanes]

I was one of the smart ones that had Necas on top last year Here’s my list from last yea’s rankings.

1. Necas
2. Fleury
3. Bean
4. Roy
5. Gauthier
6. Saarela
7. Kuokkanen
8. Martin
9. Eetu Loustarinen?
10. Wallmark
11. McKeown
12. Booth
13. Zykov
14. Geeike
15. Foegele

HM: Filipe, Carrick, & Elynuik

 

[Unsustainable]

1: RW Andrei Svechnikov (#2 OA 2018)
2: C Martin Necas (#12 OA 2017)
3: LD Jake Bean (#12 OA 2016)
4: RD Adam Fox (#66 OA 2016 by CGY - acq in Hanifin/Lindholm trade 2018)
5: C/LW Aleksi Saarela (#89 OA 2015 by NYR - acq in Staal trade 2016)
6: LW Valentin Zykov (#37 OA 2013 by LA - acq in Versteeg trade 2016)
7: W Warren Foegele (#67 OA 2014)
8: RD Roland McKeown (#50 OA 2014 by LA - acq in Sekera trade 2015)
9: C/W Janne Kuokkanen (#43 OA 2016)
10: RD Luke Martin (#52 OA 2017)
11: LD Trevor Carrick (#115 OA 2012)
12: C Lucas Wallmark (#97 OA 2014)
13: C Eetu Luostarinen (#42 OA 2017)
14: C Jack Drury (#42 OA 2018)
15: G Alex Nedeljkovic (#37 OA 2014)

Here’s how I ranked them.

 

[geehaad]

And we have a final list.

Some thoughts:

• I hadn't initially noticed all the work that Dave put into the first posts in this thread. Very well done...thanks Dave.
• This is the first time in the ranking's history that the current year's first pick is the #1 prospect.
  • This is a silly technicality, though, because the previous method (polling) yielded Hanifin as the #1 prospect in 2015.
    
  • 2017's ranking link.
  • 2016's ranking link.
• Big risers:
  • Stelio Mattheos +9 (HM #23-ish to #14)
  • Valentin Zykov +8
    
  • Warren Foegele +7
  • Alex Nedeljkovic +3
• Big fallers:
  • Spencer Smallman -10 (#20-ish to out of the top-30)
    
  • Nic Roy -7
  • Callum Booth -7
    
  • Julien Gauthier -6
  • David Cotton -6
    
  • Eetu Luostarinen -5
  • Trevor Carrick -5
• Adam Fox is this year's shiny-new-toy that is ranked too high.
• Last year, 26 players were worthy of being ranked, this year that number is 30.
  
  • Does that indicate a deeper pool or simply less consensus among voters?

 

[CandyCanes]

Here’s my list

1. Svechnikov
2. Necas
3. Zykov
4. Bean
5. Fox
6. Foegele
7. Saarela
8. McKeown
9. Roy
10. Gauthier
11. Kuokkanen
12. Wallmark
13. Mattheos
14. Geekie
15. Luostarinen

 

[CandyCanes]

I’m surprised how much Roy has dropped. By all means he’s progressing pretty nicely. He had a very solid pro rookie campaign. It’s just that we’ve managed to get even deeper and had a few guys that had really inpressive years last year like Zykov & Foegele that have bumped him down.

 

[DaveG]

Some thoughts:

• I hadn't initially noticed all the work that Dave put into the first posts in this thread. Very well done...thanks Dave.
• This is the first time in the ranking's history that the current year's first pick is the #1 prospect.
  • This is a silly technicality, though, because the previous method (polling) yielded Hanifin as the #1 prospect in 2015.
    
  • 2017's ranking link.
  • 2016's ranking link.
• Big risers:
  • Stelio Mattheos +9 (HM #23-ish to #14)
  • Valentin Zykov +8
    
  • Warren Foegele +7
  • Alex Nedeljkovic +3
• Big fallers:
  • Spencer Smallman -10 (#20-ish to out of the top-30)
    
  • Nic Roy -7
  • Callum Booth -7
    
  • Julien Gauthier -6
  • David Cotton -6
    
  • Eetu Luostarinen -5
  • Trevor Carrick -5
• Adam Fox is this year's shiny-new-toy that is ranked too high.
• Last year, 26 players were worthy of being ranked, this year that number is 30.
  • Does that indicate a deeper pool or simply less consensus among voters?

Deeper pool IMHO, and likely less consensus of what to make of the new guys. IIRC the only one from last years top 25 that exited the org was Carroll. However we've seen an addition of 3 guys that are either higher end, closer to NHL ready, or both in Fox, Fora, and Maenalanen, plus we added Svechnikov and Drury to the mix as well.

 

[Unsustainable]

Some thoughts:

• I hadn't initially noticed all the work that Dave put into the first posts in this thread. Very well done...thanks Dave.
• This is the first time in the ranking's history that the current year's first pick is the #1 prospect.
  • This is a silly technicality, though, because the previous method (polling) yielded Hanifin as the #1 prospect in 2015.
    
  • 2017's ranking link.
  • 2016's ranking link.
• Big risers:
  • Stelio Mattheos +9 (HM #23-ish to #14)
  • Valentin Zykov +8
    
  • Warren Foegele +7
  • Alex Nedeljkovic +3
• Big fallers:
  • Spencer Smallman -10 (#20-ish to out of the top-30)
    
  • Nic Roy -7
  • Callum Booth -7
    
  • Julien Gauthier -6
  • David Cotton -6
    
  • Eetu Luostarinen -5
  • Trevor Carrick -5
• Adam Fox is this year's shiny-new-toy that is ranked too high.
• Last year, 26 players were worthy of being ranked, this year that number is 30.
  • Does that indicate a deeper pool or simply less consensus among voters?

I think you’re sleeping on Fox.

 

[Joe McGrath]

McLovin-Roy-Gauthier could be an absolutely terrifying 4th line in 2019-2020 if they develop them properly. Play them all year as the defacto shutdown line in Charlotte.

 

[tarheelhockey]

O

I’m surprised how much Roy has dropped. By all means he’s progressing pretty nicely. He had a very solid pro rookie campaign. It’s just that we’ve managed to get even deeper and had a few guys that had really inpressive years last year like Zykov & Foegele that have bumped him down.

I think part of it is:

1) He hasn’t yet done anything to stand out at the NHL level. Of course he’s still developing, but for example we’ve seen Foegele come in with a splash whereas Roy was just kind of... there. That extends not just to his cup of coffee during the regular season, but also to preseason and camps and whatnot. I think we’d be disproportionately more excited if at some point we had seen some token thing like a nice goal against NHL players.

2) Everyone seems pretty satisfied that we’ve found a top-6 C solution in Necas, and probably another in Aho. On a team with Jordan Staal, the primary matchup assignments are already spoken for. That leaves only the low-priority 4C slot for Roy, and he doesn’t clearly have a skill level that suggests he’s going to somehow crash the party in the top-9 over guys who are/project to be pretty good in those roles. Given his more defensive minded approach and the limited opportunities he’s likely to receive here, he kind of feels like another Riley Nash coming up the pipe.

Which, you know, is actually a pretty good thing. Riley Nash is going to end up playing 500+ games in the league. It would be huge for us if Roy became that. He’s just a difficult kind of player to get excited about, compared to high-upside guys like Necas or even Fox.

 

[Mose]

whereas Roy was just kind of... there.

If I remember correctly Roy looked significantly better than Necas at the Prospect tourney. In fact, I thought he would be the rookie with the 9-game tryout until he got concussed in that tourney.

As I mentioned yesterday, I think the post from another site that argues for a disruption line makes more sense than a traditional 4th line. Fogele/Staal/Roy would be a tough matchup for opponents, have decent goal-scoring potential, and all three could play on PK. Roy might even work on the power play taking draws and getting in front of the goalie.

I get that Roy can play C, but if Aho and Necas work at center, then Roy's skills would be best used beside Staal--until 4-5 years from now when Roy could take over Staal's role. There is almost always a place for a big, right-shot, good at face-offs, defensive specialist who can score on occasion.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I don’t think Roy will be even close to a Jordan Staal caliber player, but that’s just my personal projection.

 

[Mose]

I don’t think Roy will be even close to a Jordan Staal caliber player, but that’s just my personal projection.

I agree that he is not a top-flight shut-down center. Staal is one of the best. However, if Aho and Necas become centers who can drive scoring, then Staal and whomever replaces him need only be similar to Adam Lowry, not the Jordan Staal of the past 6 years. I do think Roy has potential to fill that role in 5 years or so when Jordan is slowing down. My original point is that I think Roy would be excellent on Staal's right wing if Aho and Necas take over the offensive center duties.

 

[Unsustainable]

I don’t think Roy will be even close to a Jordan Staal caliber player, but that’s just my personal projection.

I don’t think Roy has the speed for the NHL

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I agree that he is not a top-flight shut-down center. Staal is one of the best. However, if Aho and Necas become centers who can drive scoring, then Staal and whomever replaces him need only be similar to Adam Lowry, not the Jordan Staal of the past 6 years. I do think Roy has potential to fill that role in 5 years or so when Jordan is slowing down. My original point is that I think Roy would be excellent on Staal's right wing if Aho and Necas take over the offensive center duties.

Roy will be 26 in 5 years. Older than Victor Rask currently is.

I don’t think it’s particularly useful to project that far. My 8-year-old guess that Danny Biega would be on our bottom pair by now isn’t aging well.