Prospect Info: 2018-19 Flyers Prospects - Top 30 SKATERS, #7

Who is the Flyers #7 SKATER prospect?

  • Bernhardt, David

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Cates, Noah

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Fazleev, Radel

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Friedman, Mark

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ginning, Adam

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Goulbourne, Tyrell

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Hain, Gavin

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Hogberg, Linus

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Kalynuk, Wyatt

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Kase, David

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Laberge, Pascal

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Lycksell, Olle

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Martel, Danick

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • St. Ivany, Jack

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Strome, Matthew

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Sushko, Maxim

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Twarynski, Carson

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Vasiliev, Valeri

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Warren, Brendan

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Westfalt, Marcus

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Willcox, Reece

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Wylie, Wyatte

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    140
  • Poll closed .

wankstifier

All glory to the harvest god
Jun 19, 2018
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@Magua The 20-80 system is definitely not perfect. As not all the categories are distinct and some of the categories definitely are more important than others (IQ and skating). Maybe both those categories could be changed to 100-0. Nevertheless it is a really fun exercise.

I've seen very little of Cates and Lycksell, so... I could very off on those two.

You would know better since I don't watch the prospects very much at all, but the scoring might too generous. For example, based on your scoring of Frost, the overall package rates as a 70+ grade, which translates as a HOF talent. I think Gretzky would be an 80; Claude Giroux might be a 65?
 

NicolasAubeKubel

Registered User
Mar 3, 2018
1,384
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Ok, Vorobyev with the 45 in hands/skating and a 55 in playmaking????

Ratcliffe and Allison as 60 grade skaters?? You’ve got Morin with the same hands rating as Vorobyev.
 

Magua

Doer of Hoffific Things
Apr 25, 2016
37,157
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You would know better since I don't watch the prospects very much at all, but the scoring might too generous. For example, based on your scoring of Frost, the overall package rates as a 70+ grade, which translates as a HOF talent. I think Gretzky would be an 80; Claude Giroux might be a 65?

Yeah, I said this the other day that 80 is reserved for McDavid skating or Dahlin hands or Laine shot or Lehtera board work for a prospect. IQ isn't really measurable, so I'd lean to not giving out 80 there, but you could, I guess. So, to say that for an 18 year old not in the NHL means it's arguably a -- don't say generational don't say generational -- generational prospect skill-set. DAMN.

So, no one should get 80s. And it's kind of hard to compare ratings for actual NHLers to prospects; like Giroux is an 80 playmaker, but you wouldn't have assigned him that grade as a prospect. Even 70 is reserved for players who you think have projectable star qualities and shouldn't be given out that often. I think the only 70 grades I'd give out are for Frost/Farabee’s IQ and Frost's playmaking, using that criteria. Maybe Frost's skating. 65 isn't handed out really, but it might not be a bad one there. That is to say that Frost has potential star qualities.
 
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Philly Fanatik

"They're going home!"
Jun 24, 2017
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Am I seeing too much in Rubstov or what?
I would like to think he's a prospect that's going to be with our organization for years but....he's like in every trade scenario on this forum!
 

FlyTimmo

pit <3
Jul 10, 2013
12,417
10,393
You would know better since I don't watch the prospects very much at all, but the scoring might too generous. For example, based on your scoring of Frost, the overall package rates as a 70+ grade, which translates as a HOF talent. I think Gretzky would be an 80; Claude Giroux might be a 65?

Frost averaged is ~65 per, not 70+. That is probably fair for blue-chip/high-end prospects. I could see an argument for him losing 5 points in a couple of those categories though. You could drop his IQ, by 5 and his hands/skating by 5 and receive no argument from me.

Ok, Vorobyev with the 45 in hands/skating and a 55 in playmaking????

Ratcliffe and Allison as 60 grade skaters?? You’ve got Morin with the same hands rating as Vorobyev.

I find Vorobyev's hands a little chunky, which is fine. The way he uses his body makes up for it. As for how is it the same as Morin's? Well, it may be a small sample size, but I thought Morin improved his hands quite a lot from the previous season. Having those two at the same grade isn't a slight to Voroybev.

Vorobyev's skating is definitely slightly below average. He has a good stride, but really lacks explosiveness, which is probably the most important aspect of skating. Having a burst in your step is how you create separation. Vorobyev is lacking in that regard so, his skating takes a hit.

Allison on the other hand has some real burst that can surprise defenders. In addition he has better top end speed. I think a 60 is very fair for him. Ratcliffe isn't quite as bursty as Allison, but it is still better than Vorobyev and he is an exceptionally smooth skater for his size. Very few 6'5''+ guys can move like he does.

And originally I was torn between 55-60 for Vorobyev's playmaking. I'd be fine if you think it is worth 60, I'm not too attached to that score I gave him on that.
 

wankstifier

All glory to the harvest god
Jun 19, 2018
7,683
11,097
Frost averaged is ~65 per, not 70+. That is probably fair for blue-chip/high-end prospects. I could see an argument for him losing 5 points in a couple of those categories though. You could drop his IQ, by 5 and his hands/skating by 5 and receive no argument from me.
.

From my understanding of the 20-80 scale scouting method, the overall score doesn't get taken from an average of all categories. It's weird and subjective...

If a prospect gets a high rating in a single category, then the overall grade gets boosted by additional weight. As Magua said, 70 grades for prospect skills are rare and 80 grades exceptionally rare. Since Frost has a few 70s and an 80 with plus rankings everywhere else in your report, then he's probably going to get a very high overall grade. A written report might be littered with "plus", "plus-plus", "elite", "world-class", etc qualifiers.
 

FlyTimmo

pit <3
Jul 10, 2013
12,417
10,393
From my understanding of the 20-80 scale scouting method, the overall score doesn't get taken from an average of all categories. It's weird and subjective...

If a prospect gets a high rating in a single category, then the overall grade gets boosted by additional weight. As Magua said, 70 grades for prospect skills are rare and 80 grades exceptionally rare. Since Frost has a few 70s and an 80 with plus rankings everywhere else in your report, then he's probably going to get a very high overall grade. A written report might be littered with "plus", "plus-plus", "elite", "world-class", etc qualifiers.

That's my problem, I don't really understand. I'm not much of a baseball guy. I imagined it as like an 80 means a player is in the top ~2-3% league-wide in that category. And if there are ~800 players in the NHL or could earn an NHL job then that would mean, if I gave Frost an 80 in IQ, he would be on of the top 20-30 smartest players in the NHL, which is I think within his potential.
 
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wankstifier

All glory to the harvest god
Jun 19, 2018
7,683
11,097
That's my problem, I don't really understand. I'm not much of a baseball guy. I imagined it as like an 80 means a player is in the top ~2-3% league-wide in that category. And if there are ~800 players in the NHL or could earn an NHL job then that would mean, if I gave Frost an 80 in IQ, he would be on of the top 20-30 smartest players in the NHL, which is I think within his potential.

80 grade skills are HOF level--absolute best of the best. A player with an 80 grade for a particular skill can get compared to HOFers known for that skill. Some examples:
  • Ovechkin is an 80 grade goalscorer
  • McDavid is an 80 grade skater
  • Kane has 80 grade hands
  • Byfuglien has 80 grade strength
 

FlyTimmo

pit <3
Jul 10, 2013
12,417
10,393
80 grade skills are HOF level--absolute best of the best. A player with an 80 grade for a particular skill can get compared to HOFers known for that skill. Some examples:
  • Ovechkin is an 80 grade goalscorer
  • McDavid is an 80 grade skater
  • Kane has 80 grade hands
  • Byfuglien has 80 grade strength

I see. Based on a quick search it seems like a score of an 80 is limited to ~0.3-0.5% of players, and not 2-3%. So only ~2-4 players league-wide will receive an 80 in any particular category. I'll edit my scores a little lol
 
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wankstifier

All glory to the harvest god
Jun 19, 2018
7,683
11,097
I see. Based on a quick search it seems like a score of an 80 is limited to ~0.3-0.5% of players, and not 2-3%. So only ~2-4 players league-wide will receive an 80 in any particular category. I'll edit my scores a little lol

Also, I'd like to say I appreciated your OP because I could get a sense of how you view the prospects in the system. My nitpicking on the 20-80 was more of an aside :blush:
 
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wasup

Registered User
Mar 21, 2018
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Well folks i actually use to worked part time in the scouting world in the junior ranks for a half dozen years or so. The way we did it for rankings was as follows ;
We had three categories of 3 .
1st category was things that are correctable
2nd category was thing that are correctable over time
3rd category things that are really hard to correct
Under the third category for example we had Skating , Hockey IQ , Competetiveness
Each one would would get ranked 1-10 using halves as well ; say skating was 7.5 ; IQ 7 ; and Compet... 8.5
Take the sum of those 3 is 23 divided by 3 and the score is 7.67 for caregory 3
You would do the same thing for all three categories , but keep each category separate .
You would go watch the player live 5 times and do a separate spread sheet each time but not bring the last sheet with you to look at ." We did not use spread sheets we used a computer" we were not that old . lol .
When you have watched him 5 times you took the highest score and lowest score and threw them out . So say the remaining scores for category 3 were 7.67 , 8 , 8.33 add up and divide by 3 your score would be 8 for that category . Do the same for all three catagories
That,s what you would enter into your teams data base and all scouts did the same thing . Now you would add comments etc to each prospect you watched but this was the basis for our scouting meetings . We would have a crossover scout {head scout} that would come take a look at a few players that we were looking at to take in the first round or two .
One thing was that if the scores were low in the things that are hard to correct category it did not matter how high the scores were in the other two categories they were taken off the list .
In junior we do not have the time nor resourses to work individually with each prospect on areas that would take too much time to correct , most kids you only have for 2 to 3 years max
 
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GapToothedWonder

Registered User
Dec 20, 2013
5,196
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Paris of the Praries
Well... I'm bored. I made one of these a couple polls back, but after thinking about it, I wanted to reassess some scores.

80: Elite
70: Plus-Plus
60: Plus
50: Average
40: Below Average
30: Well Below Average
20: Matthew Strome's Skating Ability


PlayerHandsSkatingIQPlaymakingGoal ScoringDefenseStrengthTotal
Morgan Frost65707570556045440
Phil Myers60656560556560430
Joel Farabee60557065556050415
Jay O'Brien65656050605055405
Wade Allison60604045605065380
Isaac Ratcliffe55605540655055380
Sam Morin40555540506570375
German Rubstov60505550505555375
Mikhail Vorobyev45455560456560375
Tanner Laczynski55455550555060370
Wyatt Kalynuk55555545505055365
Olle Lycksell60455550555045360
Nicolas Aube-Kubel55604545505055360
Noah Cates55455050555055360
Matthew Strome 6020 :(60 50 60 60 65 375
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not giving Sam Morin an 80 in strength makes me assume you will just never give an 80 haha
 

LegionOfDoom91

Registered User
Jan 25, 2013
81,640
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Philadelphia, PA
That's my problem, I don't really understand. I'm not much of a baseball guy. I imagined it as like an 80 means a player is in the top ~2-3% league-wide in that category. And if there are ~800 players in the NHL or could earn an NHL job then that would mean, if I gave Frost an 80 in IQ, he would be on of the top 20-30 smartest players in the NHL, which is I think within his potential.

The grades in baseball are pretty conservative even for guys who go high in the draft. A lot of 50-60 grades as average for those guys.

Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale | FanGraphs Baseball
 
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deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
Well folks i actually use to worked part time in the scouting world in the junior ranks for a half dozen years or so. The way we did it for rankings was as follows ;
We had three categories of 3 .
1st category was things that are correctable
2nd category was thing that are correctable over time
3rd category things that are really hard to correct
Under the third category for example we had Skating , Hockey IQ , Competetiveness

One thing was that if the scores were low in the things that are hard to correct category it did not matter how high the scores were in the other two categories they were taken off the list .
In junior we do not have the time nor resourses to work individually with each prospect on areas that would take too much time to correct , most kids you only have for 2 to 3 years max

Listening to Ron, it would seem they agree about Hockey IQ and Competitiveness (and probably Work Ethic as well).
These seem to be deal breakers on Flyer prospects.
Skating seems to be more player oriented, they feel they can fix that for some players (Lindblom) and maybe others (Strome).
They also have a lot more resources to put into coaching so they may be more willing to accept lower scores for "things that are correctable over time."
 

DrinkFightFlyers

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I like Morin, but I just don't think you can rank him anywhere in the top ten given his recent injury history. Even before the injury he was ranked #6 last year. Now, we lost our top three from that poll but you have also guys like Frost, Ratcliffe, Allison, etc. that have climbed the rankings (plus our firsts from this year). If Morin is #7 that means to me the overall quality of our prospects have gone down.
 
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DrinkFightFlyers

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I mean Rubstov was ahead of him last year, and I know Rubstov didn't show great improvement...but neither did Morin. I know that had a lot to do with injury obviously, but he isn't even going to be ready I think until like February or something this year. I just don't see how you can put a guy that barely played last year and will barely play this year and who was already getting passed on the depth chart by other prospects over guys who may be in the NHL this season.
 
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Striiker

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Or, more accurately, that people don’t agree with your reasons for Morin falling.

The injury didn’t remove potential or readiness or value or anything else. It just delayed when we’ll get to see it on the team.
 
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Rebels57

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I mean Rubstov was ahead of him last year, and I know Rubstov didn't show great improvement...but neither did Morin. I know that had a lot to do with injury obviously, but he isn't even going to be ready I think until like February or something this year. I just don't see how you can put a guy that barely played last year and will barely play this year and who was already getting passed on the depth chart by other prospects over guys who may be in the NHL this season.

Who may be in the NHL this season?

Rubstov?

No chance in hell. Id be happy if he occasionally got some top 6 ice time in LHV.
 
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DrinkFightFlyers

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Who may be in the NHL this season?

Rubstov?

No chance in hell. Id be happy if he occasionally got some top 6 ice time in LHV.
I think they're going to at least give him and Vorobyov a look in camp along with NAK. That's why I said "may" be in the NHL.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
Jun 2, 2013
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Rubtsov has basically no chance to make the team.

A disappointing season like that isn't going to be ignored by Hextall and, even if Rubstov is dominant at camp, it'd just be thought of as a small sample size that can't be relied on. They know he has things he has to work on in the AHL and if they're so stingy with prospects making the team, who are widely viewed as ready, they sure as hell aren't tossing a guy into the NHL who has struggled like Rubtsov did.
 

Provorov4Norris

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
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Or, more accurately, that people don’t agree with your reasons for Morin falling.

The injury didn’t remove potential or readiness or value or anything else. It just delayed when we’ll get to see it on the team.

the fact that they signed him for 3 years says something. It certainly was a bare bones, virtually no risk contract from the Flyers perspective but it indicates that Morin wants to be here and he's likely in their future plans. It's a shame he had a lost year last year but that's why you always need depth.
 
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DrinkFightFlyers

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Or, more accurately, that people don’t agree with your reasons for Morin falling.

The injury didn’t remove potential or readiness or value or anything else. It just delayed when we’ll get to see it on the team.
Of course not. Injuries don't matter and guys that miss essentially entire seasons never have their value, potential, or readiness hurt. That's why Stolie is still our top goalie prospect and he is still in the plans to be in the NHL this year or next year at the latest!
 

DrinkFightFlyers

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Rubtsov has basically no chance to make the team.

A disappointing season like that isn't going to be ignored by Hextall and, even if Rubstov is dominant at camp, it'd just be thought of as a small sample size that can't be relied on. They know he has things he has to work on in the AHL and if they're so stingy with prospects making the team, who are widely viewed as ready, they sure as hell aren't tossing a guy into the NHL who has struggled like Rubtsov did.
That's fine so take Rubstov out of it. NAK and Vorobyov still have shots to make the team.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
Jun 2, 2013
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Of course not. Injuries don't matter and guys that miss essentially entire seasons never have their value, potential, or readiness hurt. That's why Stolie is still our top goalie prospect and he is still in the plans to be in the NHL this year or next year at the latest!
Stolarz got passed by a superior prospect, not because of his injury.

Many ranked Hart ahead of him even before he missed this year.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
Jun 2, 2013
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That's fine so take Rubstov out of it. NAK and Vorobyov still have shots to make the team.
So? Proximity to the NHL is only a small part of the equation.

Them having shots to make the team doesn’t mean they automatically get a boost over guys who probably won’t. NAK has a much better chance of being on the roster than Farabee, but he’s still obviously behind him in the rankings.

On top of that, Morin is also ready to make the team, just as he was last year before being injured. So I’m not sure why you’d compare him to “NHL-ready” forwards as if that hurts his case for being ranked ahead of them.
 

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