I fully understand I'm on an island here, but I was between Rubtsov and JOB. The only reason Allison wasn't there as well was the injury. Ratcliffe looks good too and he'll be coming soon, but I think people see 6'6" and toss an unrealistic high ceiling label on him. I don't see the skills people typically describe in that way.
I suspect I don't have to defend having Allison or JOB up in this tier, but assuredly Rubtsov. Here's the thing. The previous years didn't get erased from history. He could be a guy that has just stalled out, but I vote on reasonable peak. In Rubtsov, I have the best stretch of play from any of these guys (minus JOB because I haven't seen enough), I have the one I was highest on going into the draft by a mile, and I have a guy who could stick in the middle. He has a higher flat bust potential at this point than some others for sure, but the reasonable ceiling is still there.
Rubtsov was my guy in 2015. His Chicoutimi sample was fantastic in 2016, and I watched almost every game. It's hard to rank him too low for me because those years didn't not happen -- I've defended him this year, even though my scant non-WJC viewings weren't as good as I remembered. I was actually wondering if he'd fall
out of the top 10 for many, let alone people still ranking him top 5. I don't think he has any "bust" potential, even as a role player, since his game is so pro-style (his AHL season will be key), but that notion of a player's likelihood of hitting their ceiling, as Hextall oft mentions, is something I toss about upstairs.
German has a skill-set and intelligence combo only matched by Farabee and JOB. He's an atypical case because there is nothing stopping him from having top 6 ability but his own willingness to tap into that ability -- though I still think his skating needs slight work too. It's not work ethic or attention to detail; it's a mental block where he is hesitant to play aggressive and confident with pucks. Even his on-ice demeanor can tilt low-key. Though my memories of him in previous years was being more aggressive off-puck than he was this year too. Farabee and JOB don't have that block. I'm willing to give German a mulligan, and off-ice issues (injuries, culture, poor fit) could be playing a sizable role. I think it's okay to have the player who had 43 points in 49 games behind two recent 1sts with more sheen, certainly Farabee. After them?
I've turned around on Ratcliffe 1 year later. I still don't think he has great puck handles in tight, his passing is pretty average, and he needs to improve physically in tight spaces, but I've liked his improvement, and he still has many good (realistic) features: net front work, PP ability, shot, compete, skating, size if he can use it better, IQ, solid off puck play. I'd be willing to vote him #5/6. Allison......I don't worry about his injury. We have a large sample to vote for him or not vote for him. If I thought he was the player many do, I'd vote him #3 or 4. But his hockey sense has always bothered me, and even Mark Edward and Pronman have mentioned it. It's questionable enough for me to make me think. He has terrific tools and it hasn't hampered him at the college level in production, but too much floating around positionally at both ends, routine weird decisions on/off puck. He’s fine around the net and off the rush (he scores a
lot off the rush if you go through his highlights), but his reads can break down too often in the cycle. He's probably the type who's not easy to have chemistry with. Laczynski has always been my guy, but his ceiling here I'm not sure about (and he needs to improve his feet). Vorobyev is similar. I like grouping those two. It's a bitch for me ranking Ratcliffe, Rubtsov, Allison, Laczynski, and Vorobyev.
