Prospect Info: 2018-19 Binghamton Devils and ECHL talk

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My3Sons

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Shat or get off the pot season for MBW

He’s 21. That’s hardly a finished product. At some point he’ll max out and maybe he won’t amount to anything but he’s still a kid. His development has to be emotional and mental more than physical. If you think a 21 year old can routinely bring an adult’s sensibilities you are mistaken. I think the current biological thinking is that the brain is istill devlopimg until about 25.
 

Devils Dominion

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He’s 21. That’s hardly a finished product. At some point he’ll max out and maybe he won’t amount to anything but he’s still a kid. His development has to be emotional and mental more than physical. If you think a 21 year old can routinely bring an adult’s sensibilities you are mistaken. I think the current biological thinking is that the brain is istill devlopimg until about 25.

When does his contract expire?
If he plateaus or regresses this season that could be the end of his Devils journey
 

My3Sons

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When does his contract expire?
If he plateaus or regresses this season that could be the end of his Devils journey

It’s possible but he was playing well by all accounts in the ECHL playoffs. I think they stick with him as long as he shows a good attitude and is receptive to coaching and practice. I think the physical bar is probably set fairly low for him at this point. Regardless of what NJ does with him it’s still early to pass final judgment on him.
 

Devils Dominion

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Your persistent, continuous, and excessive pessimism is incredibly aggravating. He's 21, and he's a goaltender. Relax.

He's not proven himself to be a quality AHL netminder and hes a RFA following next season, Ray Fitz has to make tough decisions

They just moved on from a 23yr old GT who has had better success than MBW.
 
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Classic Devil

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He's not proven himself to be a quality AHL netminder and hes a RFA following next season, Ray Fitz has to make tough decisions

They just moved on from a 23yr old GT who has had better success than MBW.
Goaltenders are the hardest position to predict. Performance at lower levels is a worse predictor of performance at the NHL level than any other position. MBW was drafted because he has a tantalizing physical and mental package. Will he turn into a quality NHL goaltender? I don't know. But he's got NHL starter potential that Appleby simply does not. There are no "tough decisions" that need to be made here. Look at the average age goalies become NHL starters, realize we simply don't have a lot of information, and stop freaking out over uncertainty.
 

Triumph

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It is very extremely unlikely that Blackwood is anything in the NHL. Since 2005-06, no one has climbed out of the AHL abyss that he was in this season to be an average NHL goalie. There's guys who have had some NHL success, a good year or two, but no one who has been terrible in the AHL and gone on to be average in the NHL. Talk all you want about patience and brain development and whatever - if there was something very seriously wrong in the guy's personal life or he was hiding some sort of injury, maybe he can turn into something, but otherwise, no way. They signed Lack and while with Schneider on the injured list right away, Blackwood will begin the season in the AHL, if all the other goalies get healthy, he will go back to the ECHL.
 

Devils Dominion

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It is very extremely unlikely that Blackwood is anything in the NHL. Since 2005-06, no one has climbed out of the AHL abyss that he was in this season to be an average NHL goalie. There's guys who have had some NHL success, a good year or two, but no one who has been terrible in the AHL and gone on to be average in the NHL. Talk all you want about patience and brain development and whatever - if there was something very seriously wrong in the guy's personal life or he was hiding some sort of injury, maybe he can turn into something, but otherwise, no way. They signed Lack and while with Schneider on the injured list right away, Blackwood will begin the season in the AHL, if all the other goalies get healthy, he will go back to the ECHL.

That's the cold hard truth

Let's hope he's an odd exception or was battling something with his eyes.

A few Bing fans had noted that during TV timeouts he would skate to the bench and the trainer would apply eye drops
 

devilsblood

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I expect Blackwood will start the season in the AHL. If he starts off well there, I doubt they will send him down to the ECHL regardless of the healthy of the other goalies in the system.

Now Fitz did talk about using the ECHL as a development tool, said how White benefited from the playing time, and getting his confidence up. And hopefully Blackwood's confidence did get a boost by playing well there late in the season.

Still if he starts off well in Binghamton, I expect he will stay in Binghamton.
 

Triumph

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I expect Blackwood will start the season in the AHL. If he starts off well there, I doubt they will send him down to the ECHL regardless of the healthy of the other goalies in the system.

They have 5 goalies signed to NHL contracts. What are the reasonable alternatives if everyone becomes healthy? There aren't any. They need Lack in case anyone in the NHL gets hurt. Johnson just signed here and is older than Blackwood. Now maybe if Johnson struggles, he goes to the ECHL, but they're not going to keep 3 goalies in Binghamton indefinitely.

Still if he starts off well in Binghamton, I expect he will stay in Binghamton.

This is an enormous if, of course.
 

My3Sons

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It is very extremely unlikely that Blackwood is anything in the NHL. Since 2005-06, no one has climbed out of the AHL abyss that he was in this season to be an average NHL goalie. There's guys who have had some NHL success, a good year or two, but no one who has been terrible in the AHL and gone on to be average in the NHL. Talk all you want about patience and brain development and whatever - if there was something very seriously wrong in the guy's personal life or he was hiding some sort of injury, maybe he can turn into something, but otherwise, no way. They signed Lack and while with Schneider on the injured list right away, Blackwood will begin the season in the AHL, if all the other goalies get healthy, he will go back to the ECHL.

what underlies your estimate? Is it a statistical analysis or something else? Just curious. I'm disappointed if a goalie is essentially toast if he hasn't mastered the AHL in his 21 year old season. That may be correct but it's harsh and surprising to me.
 

Triumph

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what underlies your estimate? Is it a statistical analysis or something else? Just curious. I'm disappointed if a goalie is essentially toast if he hasn't mastered the AHL in his 21 year old season. That may be correct but it's harsh and surprising to me.

It's not about 'mastered'. It's that Blackwood's season is one of the worst seasons in recent AHL memory. But yes, I looked at this earlier this year, that no AHL goalie since 2005-06 has had a season as bad as Blackwood's (or even one significantly better) and has gone on to be an average NHL goalie. There's some guys who've had good NHL seasons, but none continued that success. Nothing's impossible, it's just very unlikely.
 

Dr Quincy

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It is very extremely unlikely that Blackwood is anything in the NHL. Since 2005-06, no one has climbed out of the AHL abyss that he was in this season to be an average NHL goalie. There's guys who have had some NHL success, a good year or two, but no one who has been terrible in the AHL and gone on to be average in the NHL. Talk all you want about patience and brain development and whatever - if there was something very seriously wrong in the guy's personal life or he was hiding some sort of injury, maybe he can turn into something, but otherwise, no way. They signed Lack and while with Schneider on the injured list right away, Blackwood will begin the season in the AHL, if all the other goalies get healthy, he will go back to the ECHL.

I haven't checked every goalie in the league, but without even checking this is slightly misleading.

1) The random year of 05-06 seems odd? Why that year?
2) The vast majority of the starting goalies in the NHL were either already in the NHL at that point OR played in Europe not the AHL OR played in college so their AHL years were when they were 22 or even 23. Very few were in the AHL and as young as Blackwood was last year. So comparing their AHL numbers isn't a direct comparison.
3) Even given that: Ben Bishop as a 22 year old goalie in the AHL had a save % of .897. At the age of 21 in the AHL Robin Lehner had a gaa of 3.26.
4) The entire goaltending in Bing sucked last Year. It's possible they all sucked because they suck. And it's possible that there was a team defense issue there.

Blackwood may indeed be nothing but I don't think last season is enough to conclude that. He had success in the AHL the year before, so I don't think his talent just left him.
 
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Triumph

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I haven't checked every goalie in the league, but without even checking this is slightly misleading.

1) The random year of 05-06 seems odd? Why that year?

That's as far back as AHL.com goes. I also think it's a good stopping point because the game has changed a lot over that time - scouting wasn't as far-reaching the further back you go, and so you might run into potential survivorship bias issues.

2) The vast majority of the starting goalies in the NHL were either already in the NHL at that point OR played in Europe not the AHL OR played in college so their AHL years were when they were 22 or even 23. Very few were in the AHL and as young as Blackwood was last year. So comparing their AHL numbers isn't a direct comparison.

That's a good point, but you're still exaggerating this effect. Any goalie who came from major junior who didn't play an overage season played in the AHL at Blackwood's age. European goalies at age 20 are by and large playing in comparable leagues - the KHL and SEL aren't that different from the AHL. I doubt you'll find many successful NHL goalies who were on the verge of washing out of one of those leagues at age 20.

3) Even given that: Ben Bishop as a 22 year old goalie in the AHL had a save % of .897. At the age of 21 in the AHL Robin Lehner had a gaa of 3.26.

Blackwood had an SV% of .882. You realize that the difference between .882 and .897 is the same as the difference between .897 and .912, right? That Blackwood was not only bad - he was beyond bad? An AHL season can be short, and it can be especially short when a goalie isn't getting it done. Either way, it took Ben Bishop until the age of 27 and 2 trades to establish himself as an NHL starting goalie. I don't think that's what we're looking for from Blackwood.

I don't care about GAA. Goalies have almost no control over how many shots on goal they face.

4) The entire goaltending in Bing sucked last Year. It's possible they all sucked because they suck. And it's possible that there was a team defense issue there.

Blackwood may indeed be nothing but I don't think last season is enough to conclude that. He had success in the AHL the year before, so I don't think his talent just left him.

No one was as bad as Blackwood, or even close. If Blackwood put up a .900 like Appelby, that's not great either, but I wouldn't be wanting the organization to write him off. The point isn't that Blackwood can't be a decent AHL goalie - he probably can be. It's just that he almost certainly cannot be an NHL goalie. But hey, if he puts up a .915 next season, all that's forgotten.
 

OmNomNom

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That's as far back as AHL.com goes. I also think it's a good stopping point because the game has changed a lot over that time - scouting wasn't as far-reaching the further back you go, and so you might run into potential survivorship bias issues.



That's a good point, but you're still exaggerating this effect. Any goalie who came from major junior who didn't play an overage season played in the AHL at Blackwood's age. European goalies at age 20 are by and large playing in comparable leagues - the KHL and SEL aren't that different from the AHL. I doubt you'll find many successful NHL goalies who were on the verge of washing out of one of those leagues at age 20.



Blackwood had an SV% of .882. You realize that the difference between .882 and .897 is the same as the difference between .897 and .912, right? That Blackwood was not only bad - he was beyond bad? An AHL season can be short, and it can be especially short when a goalie isn't getting it done. Either way, it took Ben Bishop until the age of 27 and 2 trades to establish himself as an NHL starting goalie. I don't think that's what we're looking for from Blackwood.

I don't care about GAA. Goalies have almost no control over how many shots on goal they face.



No one was as bad as Blackwood, or even close. If Blackwood put up a .900 like Appelby, that's not great either, but I wouldn't be wanting the organization to write him off. The point isn't that Blackwood can't be a decent AHL goalie - he probably can be. It's just that he almost certainly cannot be an NHL goalie. But hey, if he puts up a .915 next season, all that's forgotten.
to be fair, for context, bishop was on a rivermen's team that made it to the playoffs, while bing was total dogshit
 

Triumph

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to be fair, for context, bishop was on a rivermen's team that made it to the playoffs, while bing was total dog****

Bing was total dogshit because of their goaltending, probably. We can't know for sure, but the Binghamton Devils were even in shots for/shots against, they just gave up a ton more goals than they scored. Some of this could be defense, but it's almost impossible for me to believe that it all is. Some of it was just that the goaltending was atrocious.
 

ek93

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Based on the reports from development camp how can the BDevs not be better this season? Talented and speedy reinforcements are finally on the way.
It would be hard to be worse. :laugh:

But yes, it's definitely exciting. As a Binghamton fan, I find myself coming here to check out how the NJ prospects are doing more frequently than I do for my own NHL team (Sabres).

If nothing else, it should at least be a faster and more fun team to watch than last season!
 
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My3Sons

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It would be hard to be worse. :laugh:

But yes, it's definitely exciting. As a Binghamton fan, I find myself coming here to check out how the NJ prospects are doing more frequently than I do for my own NHL team (Sabres).

If nothing else, it should at least be a faster and more fun team to watch than last season!

The organization wants to be faster and attacking. I’m guessing they had some square pegs in round holes last year in Binghamton. They will still have some but at least they are going to have more guys that the organization wants to keep long term and develop. And good luck to your Sabres. They have some great young pieces to build around.
 

Jason MacIsaac

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My guess at Bingo

Sharangovich - Seney - Speers
Pietila - McLeod - Anderson
Studenic - Schmelzer - Bastian
Gignac - Rooney - Edwardh
Baddock

Yakovlev - Strait
Sissons - Gryba
White/Jacobs - Ramage
 

Ski

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Lack will pass waivers after Binghamton's camp and will be up filling in NJ for Schneider on Emergency Recall basis until Cory returns. That'll leave the tandem of Blackwood and Johnson for Binghamton.

Once Schneider returns off the IR, Lack will be sent down and Johnson should most likely go to Adirondack. If an injury re-occurs in net for Newark, rinse and repeat the process.
 
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