2017 Playoffs Thread

[Chrisinroch]

I guess I have to point the obvious fact out...You are using a public poll to predict the outcome of a sporting event.

If 60% of people predict a snowy winter, it doesn't mean that there is a 60% chance of a snowy winter.

 

[Doctor No]

You are using a public poll to predict the outcome of a sporting event.

I am?

 

[Sojourn]

I guess I have to point the obvious fact out...You are using a public poll to predict the outcome of a sporting event.

If 60% of people predict a snowy winter, it doesn't mean that there is a 60% chance of a snowy winter.

Did you read the first post? He straight up said he was using a spaced repetition algorithm. I think if you look at the type of data he's been using in the past, public polling opinions are uh... not involved.

 

[Doctor No]

Weighted by probability, the straight SRS algorithm got just over four series correct:

Winner | Prob
NYR|54.9%
OTT|40.4%
WAS|82.3%
PIT|48.4%
NAS|41.3%
STL|29.5%
ANA|61.0%
EDM|58.8%
TOTAL | 4.2 series

I think we all agree that we should be doing better than this.

 

[Doctor No]

So...on to round two:

Outcome | Prob
STL in 4 games|5.8%
STL in 5 games|13.5%
STL in 6 games|13.8%
STL in 7 games|16.9%
NAS in 7 games|14.3%
NAS in 6 games | 17.7%
NAS in 5 games|11.6%
NAS in 4 games|6.5%
STL wins|49.9%
NAS wins | 50.1%

Outcome | Prob
ANA in 4 games|5.6%
ANA in 5 games|13.1%
ANA in 6 games|13.5%
ANA in 7 games|17.0%
EDM in 7 games|14.2%
EDM in 6 games | 18.2%
EDM in 5 games|11.7%
EDM in 4 games|6.6%
ANA wins|49.2%
EDM wins | 50.8%

Well, the algorithm won't be much help in the West...

Outcome | Prob
OTT in 4 games|2.8%
OTT in 5 games|7.7%
OTT in 6 games|9.1%
OTT in 7 games|13.5%
NYR in 7 games|15.0%
NYR in 6 games | 22.4%
NYR in 5 games|17.8%
NYR in 4 games|11.8%
OTT wins|33.1%
NYR wins | 66.9%

Outcome | Prob
WAS in 4 games|9.0%
WAS in 5 games|18.3%
WAS in 6 games|17.0%
WAS in 7 games | 18.3%
PIT in 7 games|12.2%
PIT in 6 games|13.6%
PIT in 5 games|7.8%
PIT in 4 games|3.9%
WAS wins | 62.5%
PIT wins|37.5%

 

[morehockeystats]

Teams Elo based prediction for round 2:

1st round success: 5/8.
1st round match-by-match player Elo-based prediction success: 27/42
The latter one is published before each game on my twitter... @morehockeystats

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after games of April 26:

Outcome | Prob
STL in 5 games|5.5%
STL in 6 games|10.3%
STL in 7 games|16.2%
NAS in 7 games|13.7%
NAS in 6 games | 21.4%
NAS in 5 games|18.2%
NAS in 4 games|14.7%
STL wins|32.0%
NAS wins | 68.0%

Outcome | Prob
ANA in 5 games|5.2%
ANA in 6 games|9.7%
ANA in 7 games|15.5%
EDM in 7 games|13.5%
EDM in 6 games | 22.0%
EDM in 5 games|18.7%
EDM in 4 games|15.4%
ANA wins|30.4%
EDM wins | 69.6%

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after games of April 27:

Outcome | Prob
OTT in 4 games|6.2%
OTT in 5 games|13.8%
OTT in 6 games|12.9%
OTT in 7 games|16.6%
NYR in 7 games|18.1%
NYR in 6 games | 21.1%
NYR in 5 games|11.4%
OTT wins|49.5%
NYR wins | 50.5%

Outcome | Prob
WAS in 5 games|8.6%
WAS in 6 games|14.5%
WAS in 7 games | 19.8%
PIT in 7 games|13.2%
PIT in 6 games|19.1%
PIT in 5 games|14.3%
PIT in 4 games|10.4%
WAS wins|43.0%
PIT wins | 57.0%

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after games of April 28:

Outcome | Prob
STL in 5 games|10.3%
STL in 6 games|15.5%
STL in 7 games|20.4%
NAS in 7 games|17.2%
NAS in 6 games | 22.3%
NAS in 5 games|14.3%
STL wins|46.2%
NAS wins | 53.8%

Outcome | Prob
ANA in 6 games|3.9%
ANA in 7 games|10.6%
EDM in 7 games|9.2%
EDM in 6 games|19.8%
EDM in 5 games|22.5%
EDM in 4 games | 33.9%
ANA wins|14.5%
EDM wins | 85.5%

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after games of April 29:

Outcome | Prob
OTT in 4 games|13.4%
OTT in 5 games | 22.2%
OTT in 6 games|15.9%
OTT in 7 games|16.8%
NYR in 7 games|18.4%
NYR in 6 games|13.2%
OTT wins | 68.3%
NYR wins|31.7%

Outcome | Prob
WAS in 6 games|6.0%
WAS in 7 games|14.4%
PIT in 7 games|10.4%
PIT in 6 games|20.5%
PIT in 5 games|20.9%
PIT in 4 games | 27.7%
WAS wins|20.4%
PIT wins | 79.6%

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after games of April 30:

Outcome | Prob
STL in 6 games|10.0%
STL in 7 games|18.9%
NAS in 7 games|15.9%
NAS in 6 games | 29.0%
NAS in 5 games|26.2%
STL wins|28.9%
NAS wins | 71.1%

Outcome | Prob
ANA in 6 games|10.1%
ANA in 7 games|19.4%
EDM in 7 games|15.9%
EDM in 6 games | 28.9%
EDM in 5 games|25.7%
ANA wins|29.6%
EDM wins | 70.4%

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after games of May 1:

Outcome | Prob
WAS in 6 games|13.4%
WAS in 7 games|22.5%
PIT in 7 games|15.8%
PIT in 6 games | 26.2%
PIT in 5 games|22.0%
WAS wins|35.9%
PIT wins | 64.1%

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after games of May 2:

Outcome | Prob
OTT in 5 games|17.1%
OTT in 6 games|17.5%
OTT in 7 games|20.4%
NYR in 7 games | 23.1%
NYR in 6 games|21.8%
OTT wins | 55.0%
NYR wins|45.0%

Outcome | Prob
STL in 7 games|12.3%
NAS in 7 games|10.5%
NAS in 6 games|31.1%
NAS in 5 games | 46.2%
STL wins|12.3%
NAS wins | 87.7%

 

[morehockeystats]

Updates after games of May 2:

Outcome | Prob
OTT in 5 games|17.1%
OTT in 6 games|17.5%
OTT in 7 games|20.4%
NYR in 7 games | 23.1%
NYR in 6 games|21.8%
OTT wins | 55.0%
NYR wins|45.0%

These sort of contradict...

 

[Doctor No]

Sort of, but not more than that.

Model sees the Rangers (+0.498) as a fair amount better than the Senators (+0.038), but the Sens have more winning combinations left.

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after games of May 3:

Outcome | Prob
WAS in 7 games|16.0%
PIT in 7 games|11.5%
PIT in 6 games|30.6%
PIT in 5 games | 41.9%
WAS wins|16.0%
PIT wins | 84.0%

Outcome | Prob
ANA in 6 games|23.9%
ANA in 7 games | 28.3%
EDM in 7 games|22.8%
EDM in 6 games|25.0%
ANA wins | 52.2%
EDM wins|47.8%

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after games of May 4:

Outcome | Prob
OTT in 6 games|16.0%
OTT in 7 games|22.6%
NYR in 7 games|26.3%
NYR in 6 games | 35.1%
OTT wins|38.6%
NYR wins | 61.4%

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after games of May 5:

Outcome | Prob
STL in 7 games|23.5%
NAS in 7 games|19.3%
NAS in 6 games | 57.2%
STL wins|23.5%
NAS wins | 76.5%

Outcome | Prob ANA in 6 games | 43.8%
ANA in 7 games|31.2%
EDM in 7 games|25.0%
ANA wins | 75.0%
EDM wins|25.0%

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after games of May 6:

Outcome | Prob OTT in 6 games | 35.3%
OTT in 7 games|30.4%
NYR in 7 games|34.4%
OTT wins | 65.6%
NYR wins|34.4%

Outcome | Prob
WAS in 7 games|28.2%
PIT in 7 games|19.6%
PIT in 6 games | 52.2%
WAS wins|28.2%
PIT wins | 71.8%

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after games of May 7:

Outcome | Prob ANA in 7 games | 53.3%
EDM in 7 games|46.7%

 

[Doctor No]

Updates after game of April 8:

Outcome | Prob WAS in 7 games | 60.3%
PIT in 7 games|39.7%

 

[Doctor No]

Ottawa's been the mover in these playoffs (as far as SRS is concerned).

At the end of the regular season, they were measured at -0.002 goals/game (essentially league average).

After the Boston series, they were measured at +0.035 goals/game.

They're now at +0.053 goals/game.

They will be a strong underdog against either Pittsburgh (+0.704 goals/game) or Washington (+0.946 goals/game) in the next round.

If you're looking for ways to improve upon SRS (and there are many things that you can do, which I've touched upon in various threads), the trick is to find "that team" each year without over-fitting your model.

 

[Doctor No]

As promised, the SRS model likes Pittsburgh. Western series is seen as an essential draw.

Outcome | Prob
PIT in 4 games|14.5%
PIT in 5 games | 24.5%
PIT in 6 games|19.5%
PIT in 7 games|17.7%
OTT in 7 games|8.5%
OTT in 6 games|8.7%
OTT in 5 games|4.5%
OTT in 4 games|2.1%
PIT wins | 76.2%
OTT wins|23.8%

Outcome | Prob
ANA in 4 games|5.7%
ANA in 5 games|13.2%
ANA in 6 games|13.8%
ANA in 7 games|17.1%
NAS in 7 games|14.2%
NAS in 6 games | 17.7%
NAS in 5 games|11.7%
NAS in 4 games|6.6%
ANA wins|49.7%
NAS wins | 50.3%

 

[Doctor No]

And in round two, the SRS model sucked:

Winner | Prob
NYR|54.9%
OTT|40.4%
WAS|82.3%
PIT|48.4%
NAS|41.3%
STL|29.5%
ANA|61.0%
EDM|58.8%
NAS|50.1%
ANA|49.2%
OTT|33.1%
PIT|37.5%
TOTAL | 5.9 series (out of 12)

Yikes.

 

[Doctor No]

After game of May 12:

Outcome | Prob
ANA in 5 games|5.5%
ANA in 6 games|10.2%
ANA in 7 games|16.3%
NAS in 7 games|13.5%
NAS in 6 games | 21.4%
NAS in 5 games|18.2%
NAS in 4 games|14.9%
ANA wins|32.0%
NAS wins | 68.0%