2017 Playoffs Thread

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
Outcome | Prob
MTL in 4 games|4.8%
MTL in 5 games|11.6%
MTL in 6 games|12.3%
MTL in 7 games|16.5%
NYR in 7 games|14.8%
NYR in 6 games | 18.9%
NYR in 5 games|13.5%
NYR in 4 games|7.7%
MTL wins|45.1%
NYR wins | 54.9%

Outcome | Prob
OTT in 4 games|3.8%
OTT in 5 games|9.9%
OTT in 6 games|11.0%
OTT in 7 games|15.6%
BOS in 7 games|15.2%
BOS in 6 games | 20.4%
BOS in 5 games|14.8%
BOS in 4 games|9.1%
OTT wins|40.4%
BOS wins | 59.6%

Outcome | Prob
WAS in 4 games|18.4%
WAS in 5 games | 27.7%
WAS in 6 games|19.9%
WAS in 7 games|16.4%
TOR in 7 games|6.7%
TOR in 6 games|6.7%
TOR in 5 games|3.0%
TOR in 4 games|1.3%
WAS wins | 82.3%
TOR wins|17.7%

Outcome | Prob
PIT in 4 games|5.2%
PIT in 5 games|12.6%
PIT in 6 games|13.7%
PIT in 7 games|16.9%
CBS in 7 games|14.4%
CBS in 6 games | 18.0%
CBS in 5 games|12.3%
CBS in 4 games|6.8%
PIT wins|48.4%
CBS wins | 51.6%
 
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Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
Outcome | Prob
CHI in 4 games|7.7%
CHI in 5 games|16.4%
CHI in 6 games|16.0%
CHI in 7 games | 18.6%
NAS in 7 games|12.8%
NAS in 6 games|14.9%
NAS in 5 games|9.0%
NAS in 4 games|4.6%
CHI wins | 58.7%
NAS wins|41.3%

Outcome | Prob
MIN in 4 games|11.5%
MIN in 5 games | 21.9%
MIN in 6 games|18.6%
MIN in 7 games|18.6%
STL in 7 games|10.2%
STL in 6 games|10.6%
STL in 5 games|5.9%
STL in 4 games|2.8%
MIN wins | 70.5%
STL wins|29.5%

Outcome | Prob
ANA in 4 games|8.3%
ANA in 5 games|17.6%
ANA in 6 games|16.4%
ANA in 7 games | 18.7%
CAL in 7 games|12.3%
CAL in 6 games|14.2%
CAL in 5 games|8.3%
CAL in 4 games|4.2%
ANA wins | 61.0%
CAL wins|39.0%

Outcome | Prob
EDM in 4 games|7.6%
EDM in 5 games|16.4%
EDM in 6 games|15.9%
EDM in 7 games | 18.8%
SJS in 7 games|12.7%
SJS in 6 games|15.0%
SJS in 5 games|9.0%
SJS in 4 games|4.5%
EDM wins | 58.8%
SJS wins|41.2%
 
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Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
Not roster aware, and memory-less in general (typical with an SRS algorithm)

I have some agent-based model predictive algorithms that take into account individual players, but I publish the SRS algorithm as more of an educational exercise (for people interested in exploring, but don't have an ideal place to start).
 

Filthy Dangles

Registered User*
Oct 23, 2014
28,353
39,702
Can you run this model against the past 2-3 playoffs and post the results so we can see how predictive it actually was?
 

eperry

Registered User
Jun 27, 2016
64
9
OTT-BOS
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WSH-TOR
SYtohLK.jpg


MIN-STL
kovKcSZ.jpg


EDM-SJS
pvAX2P6.jpg


ANA-CGY
sT3wZVS.jpg


PIT-CBJ
6TZDWjw.jpg


CHI-NSH
hFPWjeP.jpg


MTL-NYR
nJLIDI5.jpg
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
Series updates after games of April 12:

Outcome | Prob
MTL in 5 games|4.5%
MTL in 6 games|8.6%
MTL in 7 games|14.6%
NYR in 7 games|13.4%
NYR in 6 games | 21.9%
NYR in 5 games|19.8%
NYR in 4 games|17.2%
MTL wins|27.7%
NYR wins | 72.3%

Outcome | Prob
OTT in 5 games|3.7%
OTT in 6 games|7.5%
OTT in 7 games|13.2%
BOS in 7 games|13.0%
BOS in 6 games | 22.8%
BOS in 5 games|21.2%
BOS in 4 games|18.7%
OTT wins|24.4%
BOS wins | 75.6%

Outcome | Prob
PIT in 4 games|10.3%
PIT in 5 games | 19.4%
PIT in 6 games|16.5%
PIT in 7 games|17.9%
CBS in 7 games|14.9%
CBS in 6 games|14.5%
CBS in 5 games|6.4%
PIT wins | 64.2%
CBS wins|35.8%

Outcome | Prob
MIN in 5 games|11.1%
MIN in 6 games|17.2%
MIN in 7 games | 22.2%
STL in 7 games|12.3%
STL in 6 games|17.2%
STL in 5 games|11.7%
STL in 4 games|8.3%
MIN wins | 50.4%
STL wins|49.6%

Outcome | Prob
EDM in 5 games|7.3%
EDM in 6 games|12.8%
EDM in 7 games|18.9%
SJS in 7 games|13.4%
SJS in 6 games | 20.3%
SJS in 5 games|15.5%
SJS in 4 games|11.9%
EDM wins|38.9%
SJS wins | 61.1%
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
Updates after games of April 13:

Outcome | Prob
WAS in 4 games|25.9%
WAS in 5 games | 31.7%
WAS in 6 games|18.6%
WAS in 7 games|13.1%
TOR in 7 games|5.4%
TOR in 6 games|4.1%
TOR in 5 games|1.3%
WAS wins | 89.2%
TOR wins|10.8%

Outcome | Prob
CHI in 5 games|7.4%
CHI in 6 games|12.6%
CHI in 7 games|18.7%
NAS in 7 games|13.2%
NAS in 6 games | 20.2%
NAS in 5 games|15.9%
NAS in 4 games|11.9%
CHI wins|38.8%
NAS wins | 61.2%

Outcome | Prob
ANA in 4 games|14.2%
ANA in 5 games | 23.7%
ANA in 6 games|18.3%
ANA in 7 games|17.6%
CAL in 7 games|11.6%
CAL in 6 games|10.5%
CAL in 5 games|4.2%
ANA wins | 73.7%
CAL wins|26.3%
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
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hockeygoalies.org
Updates after games of April 14:

Outcome | Prob
MTL in 5 games|8.8%
MTL in 6 games|13.5%
MTL in 7 games|19.4%
NYR in 7 games|17.4%
NYR in 6 games | 24.3%
NYR in 5 games|16.6%
MTL wins|41.7%
NYR wins | 58.3%

Outcome | Prob
PIT in 4 games|19.9%
PIT in 5 games | 27.6%
PIT in 6 games|17.2%
PIT in 7 games|15.5%
CBS in 7 games|12.2%
CBS in 6 games|7.5%
PIT wins | 80.3%
CBS wins|19.7%

Outcome | Prob
MIN in 6 games|8.6%
MIN in 7 games|18.6%
STL in 7 games|10.8%
STL in 6 games|20.0%
STL in 5 games|18.3%
STL in 4 games | 23.6%
MIN wins|27.2%
STL wins | 72.8%

Outcome | Prob
EDM in 5 games|13.0%
EDM in 6 games|18.2%
EDM in 7 games | 22.3%
SJS in 7 games|15.3%
SJS in 6 games|19.7%
SJS in 5 games|11.5%
EDM wins | 53.5%
SJS wins|46.6%
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
Updates after games of April 15 - not that you need anything in this subforum to know that the Blackhawks are in trouble:

Outcome | Prob
OTT in 5 games|7.7%
OTT in 6 games|12.3%
OTT in 7 games|18.0%
BOS in 7 games|17.7%
BOS in 6 games | 25.9%
BOS in 5 games|18.4%
OTT wins|38.0%
BOS wins | 62.0%

Outcome | Prob
WAS in 5 games|24.8%
WAS in 6 games | 26.5%
WAS in 7 games|23.6%
TOR in 7 games|9.9%
TOR in 6 games|10.4%
TOR in 5 games|4.9%
WAS wins | 74.9%
TOR wins|25.1%

Outcome | Prob
CHI in 6 games|4.9%
CHI in 7 games|12.6%
NAS in 7 games|10.0%
NAS in 6 games|20.3%
NAS in 5 games|21.7%
NAS in 4 games | 30.5%
CHI wins|17.5%
NAS wins | 82.5%

Outcome | Prob
ANA in 4 games|23.9%
ANA in 5 games | 30.0%
ANA in 6 games|17.4%
ANA in 7 games|14.0%
CAL in 7 games|9.3%
CAL in 6 games|5.4%
ANA wins | 85.3%
CAL wins|14.7%
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
Updates after games of April 16:

Outcome | Prob MTL in 5 games | 22.3%
MTL in 6 games|21.4%
MTL in 7 games|21.8%
NYR in 7 games|19.1%
NYR in 6 games|15.5%
MTL wins | 65.4%
NYR wins|34.6%

Outcome | Prob PIT in 4 games | 45.3%
PIT in 5 games|30.7%
PIT in 6 games|11.0%
PIT in 7 games|7.3%
CBS in 7 games|5.7%
PIT wins | 94.3%
CBS wins|5.7%

Outcome | Prob
MIN in 7 games|10.1%
STL in 7 games|6.0%
STL in 6 games|15.5%
STL in 5 games|18.8%
STL in 4 games | 49.6%
MIN wins|10.1%
STL wins | 89.9%

Outcome | Prob EDM in 5 games | 28.3%
EDM in 6 games|24.0%
EDM in 7 games|21.8%
SJS in 7 games|14.8%
SJS in 6 games|11.1%
EDM wins | 74.1%
SJS wins|25.9%
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
Updates after games of April 17:

Outcome | Prob
OTT in 5 games|20.5%
OTT in 6 games|19.6%
OTT in 7 games | 21.7%
BOS in 7 games|20.4%
BOS in 6 games|17.9%
OTT wins | 61.7%
BOS wins|38.3%

Outcome | Prob
WAS in 6 games|24.1%
WAS in 7 games | 30.9%
TOR in 7 games|13.5%
TOR in 6 games|18.8%
TOR in 5 games|12.7%
WAS wins | 55.0%
TOR wins|45.0%

Outcome | Prob
CHI in 7 games|6.1%
NAS in 7 games|4.8%
NAS in 6 games|13.8%
NAS in 5 games|19.6%
NAS in 4 games | 55.7%
CHI wins|6.1%
NAS wins | 93.9%

Outcome | Prob ANA in 4 games | 49.3%
ANA in 5 games|30.8%
ANA in 6 games|9.8%
ANA in 7 games|6.2%
CAL in 7 games|4.0%
ANA wins | 96.0%
CAL wins|4.0%

Interesting that the model likes Washington enough that it still favors the Capitals (slightly) here.
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
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hockeygoalies.org
Updates after games of April 18:

Outcome | Prob
MTL in 6 games|22.1%
MTL in 7 games|27.0%
NYR in 7 games|23.6%
NYR in 6 games | 27.3%
MTL wins|49.1%
NYR wins | 50.9%

Outcome | Prob PIT in 5 games | 56.1%
PIT in 6 games|19.8%
PIT in 7 games|13.6%
CBS in 7 games|10.5%
PIT wins | 89.5%
CBS wins|10.5%

Outcome | Prob
EDM in 6 games|25.5%
EDM in 7 games | 28.5%
SJS in 7 games|22.0%
SJS in 6 games|24.0%
EDM wins | 54.0%
SJS wins|46.0%
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
Updates after games of April 19:

Outcome | Prob WAS in 6 games | 41.0%
WAS in 7 games|32.2%
TOR in 7 games|14.2%
TOR in 6 games|12.6%
WAS wins | 73.3%
TOR wins|26.7%

Outcome | Prob OTT in 5 games | 51.9%
OTT in 6 games|19.3%
OTT in 7 games|14.9%
BOS in 7 games|13.9%
OTT wins | 86.1%
BOS wins|13.9%

Outcome | Prob
MIN in 7 games|20.4%
STL in 7 games|11.9%
STL in 6 games|30.3%
STL in 5 games | 37.4%
MIN wins|20.4%
STL wins | 79.6%
 

johna2626

Registered User
Aug 19, 2015
952
2
Atlanta
Outcome | Prob
OTT in 4 games|3.8%
OTT in 5 games|9.9%
OTT in 6 games|11.0%
OTT in 7 games|15.6%
BOS in 7 games|15.2%
BOS in 6 games | 20.4%
BOS in 5 games|14.8%
BOS in 4 games|9.1%
OTT wins|40.4%
BOS wins | 59.6%

Outcome | Prob
WAS in 4 games|18.4%
WAS in 5 games | 27.7%
WAS in 6 games|19.9%
WAS in 7 games|16.4%
TOR in 7 games|6.7%
TOR in 6 games|6.7%
TOR in 5 games|3.0%
TOR in 4 games|1.3%
WAS wins | 82.3%
TOR wins|17.7%

Outcome | Prob
PIT in 4 games|5.2%
PIT in 5 games|12.6%
PIT in 6 games|13.7%
PIT in 7 games|16.9%
CBS in 7 games|14.4%
CBS in 6 games | 18.0%
CBS in 5 games|12.3%
CBS in 4 games|6.8%
PIT wins|48.4%
CBS wins | 51.6%

Outcome | Prob
CHI in 4 games|7.7%
CHI in 5 games|16.4%
CHI in 6 games|16.0%
CHI in 7 games | 18.6%
NAS in 7 games|12.8%
NAS in 6 games|14.9%
NAS in 5 games|9.0%
NAS in 4 games|4.6%
CHI wins | 58.7%
NAS wins|41.3%

Outcome | Prob
MIN in 4 games|11.5%
MIN in 5 games | 21.9%
MIN in 6 games|18.6%
MIN in 7 games|18.6%
STL in 7 games|10.2%
STL in 6 games|10.6%
STL in 5 games|5.9%
STL in 4 games|2.8%
MIN wins | 70.5%
STL wins|29.5%

Looking at these like

2a754a73e4b129ef3ab64ee488d67026.jpg
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
Updates after games of April 20:

Outcome | Prob
MTL in 7 games|21.8%
NYR in 7 games|19.2%
NYR in 6 games | 59.0%
MTL wins|21.8%
NYR wins | 78.2%

Outcome | Prob EDM in 6 games | 45.2%
EDM in 7 games|31.2%
SJS in 7 games|23.6%
EDM wins | 76.4%
SJS wins|23.6%

To the above question, for the three series completed, the model is slightly above average (Pittsburgh at 48.4%, Nashville at 41.3%, and Anaheim at 61.0% composites to a 50.2% overall).

Ottawa/Boston and Minnesota/St. Louis don't look particularly good. I'd still like to know why the poster above quoted Washington/Toronto and implied that the model got it "way wrong".
 
Last edited:

johna2626

Registered User
Aug 19, 2015
952
2
Atlanta
Updates after games of April 20:

Outcome | Prob
MTL in 7 games|21.8%
NYR in 7 games|19.2%
NYR in 6 games | 59.0%
MTL wins|21.8%
NYR wins | 78.2%

Outcome | Prob EDM in 6 games | 45.2%
EDM in 7 games|31.2%
SJS in 7 games|23.6%
EDM wins | 76.4%
SJS wins|23.6%

To the above question, for the three series completed, the model is slightly above average (Pittsburgh at 48.4%, Nashville at 41.3%, and Anaheim at 61.0% composites to a 50.2% overall).

Ottawa/Boston and Minnesota/St. Louis don't look particularly good. I'd still like to know why the poster above quoted Washington/Toronto and implied that the model got it "way wrong".

I was joking. Washington and Toronto has not gone the way most models or people predicted. Also, there's a massive difference in the probabilities before the series, and after game 3.

And the Minnesota/St. Louis series looks bad only because it's 3-1 right now. Minnesota has pretty much dominated play, and has really only run into a hot goalie.
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
Updates after games of April 21:

Outcome | Prob WAS in 6 games | 58.9%
WAS in 7 games|28.7%
TOR in 7 games|12.5%
WAS wins | 87.5%
TOR wins|12.5%

Outcome | Prob OTT in 6 games | 39.5%
OTT in 7 games|31.4%
BOS in 7 games|29.1%
OTT wins | 70.9%
BOS wins|29.1%
 

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