Speculation: 2017 Offseason Roster Discussion IV - Langkow's Revenge

[Lilhoody]

So as camp inches closer it looks more and more like the guys we have right now will be our final roster. There will be no further additions.

That means guys like McGinn will be part of the lineup. Chayka added he sees McGinn as one of the LWs who will play RW.

So what are we looking at for our lineup? We still have too many forwards. I'm also assuming Duclair signs at some point.

Domi - Stepan - Duclair
Perlini - Dvorak - Keller
Rieder - Strome - McGinn
Martinook - Richardson - Fischer

Cousins as the extra and Crouse in the A?

Alternative bottom 6:

Crouse - Strome - Rieder
Martinook - Richardson - McGinn

Cousins as the extra and Fischer in the A.

Cousins' acquisition is really the one move I didn't like this summer. Just an extra body. We already knew Richardson was good to go, so he wasn't replacing him, and he's hardly Strome insurance. Give me back the pick.

OEL - Hjalmarsson
Goligoski - Wood (this seems like it's happening)
Connauton - Schenn

injured - Chychrun

Gotta think we're signing a defenseman, whether from UFA or after extending a PTO. We have no spare D right now, unless you want to count a guy like Andrew Campbell. We're really in a jam if another D gets injured.

You left off Clendening. Wood extra and Clendening works into 2 or 3 R slot

 

[Jakey53]

You left off Clendening. Wood extra and Clendening works into 2 or 3 R slot

I think Schenn will be our 2RD.

 

[Heldig]

Many could play RW. That's not the problem. The Coyotes need righties...

I expect Fischer to be given every opportunity to make the team. But yes, the team needs more RHS.

 

[Hinterland]

I expect Fischer to be given every opportunity to make the team. But yes, the team needs more RHS.

He would have been good enough last season so yes...he will make the team. No point in keeping him in Tucson. Still. That's nowhere near enough because the only other righty forward on the team is Derek Stepan.

 

[moosemeister]

I'd be okay with one more RHS. Just one.

 

[RemoAZ]

He would have been good enough last season so yes...he will make the team. No point in keeping him in Tucson. Still. That's nowhere near enough because the only other righty forward on the team is Derek Stepan.

I agree he was good enough last year and should be on the roster this season. But I'd rather have left shots like Duclair and Reider on the right side than sign a fringe NHLer just to have another right shot.

 

[rt]

Whelp. We should get an excellent draft pick. I'll say that. The roster is Swiss cheese. It's either wishful thinking or hubris from Chayka.

 

[Heldig]

rt, did Chayka say something?

 

[rt]

rt, did Chayka say something?

No I mean the condition of his roster. It's off balanced, mish mashed, and barely cobbled together with enoumous and plainly obvious gaping holes.

We have one right wing on the whole team and that's Anthony Duclair who is coming off of an epic failure of a season. We have about 13 3rd/4th line LW/Cs. Apart from the top pair and Goligoski, our D corps is comprised of Luke Schenn, Adam Clendening, and Kevin Connauton. We don't even have a 7th D.

Hanzal --> Stepan
Vrbata --> Keller (this is a prayer)
Burmistrov --> Strome (so is this)

Murphy --> Hjalmarsson
DeAngelo --> Clendening
Stone --> Literaly no one

Raanta --> Smith

Chayka had a really big week leading up to the draft and then he just fell asleep and addressed none of our needs. I feel like we're wasting a prime year of Stepan and Hjalmarsson because Chayka fell too much in love with his own pre draft moves. He forgot about the fact that the entire right side of the lineup is a barren wasteland of nothingness. We've only got 2/3rds of a team.

I'm glad Tippett's gone. I like the trades we did make. We ****ed up by taking the rest of the summer completely off. I hope he submitted PTO and set his Outlook automatic replies because my man Chayka has been OUT THE ****ING OFFICE for weeks.

I'm just going to be annoyed when Chayka acts surprised this team can't win any games. I'll be a little miffed when they act like there's some mystery here.

Our depth at D atrocious and we only have one guy on our 2nd pair. That's going to lose us A LOT of hockey games. If we suffer one more injury, we'll have the worst defense in the NHL. It's a problem.

If Strome and Keller aren't ready to put up big numbers, we're worse up front this year than we were last year. 100% of our hopes for improving our offense from forwards rests on the shoulders of rookies. It's a problem.

 

[SniperHF]

All those spots were filled at the start of last season except center and look how that turned out. The line up on the left got us a 3nd worst finish and we were 2nd most of the year.

I think it's another rebuilding year and that's pretty clear . Most of the holes are simply unfillable either due to budget or trade availability.

Everything else is likely posturing, still rebuilding.

 

[Hinterland]

No I mean the condition of his roster. It's off balanced, mish mashed, and barely cobbled together with enoumous and plainly obvious gaping holes.

We have one right wing on the whole team and that's Anthony Duclair who is coming off of an epic failure of a season. We have about 13 3rd/4th line LW/Cs. Apart from the top pair and Goligoski, our D corps is comprised of Luke Schenn, Adam Clendening, and Kevin Connauton. We don't even have a 7th D.

Hanzal --> Stepan
Vrbata --> Keller (this is a prayer)
Burmistrov --> Strome (so is this)

Murphy --> Hjalmarsson
DeAngelo --> Clendening
Stone --> Literaly no one

Raanta --> Smith

Chayka had a really big week leading up to the draft and then he just fell asleep and addressed none of our needs. I feel like we're wasting a prime year of Stepan and Hjalmarsson because Chayka fell too much in love with his own pre draft moves. He forgot about the fact that the entire right side of the lineup is a barren wasteland of nothingness. We've only got 2/3rds of a team.

I'm glad Tippett's gone. I like the trades we did make. We ****ed up by taking the rest of the summer completely off. I hope he submitted PTO and set his Outlook automatic replies because my man Chayka has been OUT THE ****ING OFFICE for weeks.

I'm just going to be annoyed when Chayka acts surprised this team can't win any games. I'll be a little miffed when they act like there's some mystery here.

Our depth at D atrocious and we only have one guy on our 2nd pair. That's going to lose us A LOT of hockey games. If we suffer one more injury, we'll have the worst defense in the NHL. It's a problem.

If Strome and Keller aren't ready to put up big numbers, we're worse up front this year than we were last year. 100% of our hopes for improving our offense from forwards rests on the shoulders of rookies. It's a problem.

A very good post. The whole system is a mess...created by Chayka.
I don't like his moves though...he paid too much for Stepan who may be one of the best two way Centers but can't win faceoffs and doesn't create much on his own. He depends on his wingers to create and score...wingers the Coyotes don't (yet?) have. As much as I like Stepan...to give up the 7th overall plus the only RHD puckmover on the team was absolutely insane especially after all that talk of "taking advantage of the situation" that's a terribly bad deal. I guess I could live with it if the Coyotes wanted to win this season. But it doesn't make much sense to me to throw your future away for a Center in his prime if your goal is to finish in last place.
I get that not everybody likes Murphy but he's still young and mainly he's tough and a true leader and guy to look up to. And he's a righty. Same here. Hjalmarsson is a good player...I could live the deal if it happened to win this season. But to tank another year it's crazy to trade for a defender who will either be done in two years or ask for a crazy contract before being done the year after. It's a well known fact that shotblockers tend not to last very long. Lots of recent examples. To waste a year of Hjalmarsson like that is just stupid. Nothing else.

If all they want is to lose then they should have kept Murphy, deAngelo and the pick and Burmistrov. Difference between him and Stepan is gonna be pretty small on that team.

 

[DesertDawg]

I expect Fischer to be given every opportunity to make the team. But yes, the team needs more RHS.

Josh Anderson? Still not re-signed! Just speculating that the BJs are not shopping him, but he may still be available for a center. Perhaps in a 3-way?

 

[Hinterland]

Josh Anderson? Still not re-signed! Just speculating that the BJs are not shopping him, but he may still be available for a center. Perhaps in a 3-way?

Anderson would be great. Don't think he's available though unless he wants to get away from Torts

 

[Toadie]

A fickle group we are. We want our team holes to be filled without giving up anything of value in return. Chayka has a done a great job in the changes he made, to put any more quality in the team you will have to start trading away chips that other teams would want. If we trade Wood and a second for a quality RWer who may or may not shoot right half of this board will go ballistic. Also under a new system, our players we have may produce significantly better.

http://thehockeywriters.com/toronto-maple-leafs-2016-17-season-preview/

Look at the defence the Leafs started last year with, take ours any day. None of us know how long Chychrun will be out. He could be back after preseason too

 

[Jakey53]

No I mean the condition of his roster. It's off balanced, mish mashed, and barely cobbled together with enoumous and plainly obvious gaping holes.

We have one right wing on the whole team and that's Anthony Duclair who is coming off of an epic failure of a season. We have about 13 3rd/4th line LW/Cs. Apart from the top pair and Goligoski, our D corps is comprised of Luke Schenn, Adam Clendening, and Kevin Connauton. We don't even have a 7th D.

Hanzal --> Stepan
Vrbata --> Keller (this is a prayer)
Burmistrov --> Strome (so is this)

Murphy --> Hjalmarsson
DeAngelo --> Clendening
Stone --> Literaly no one

Raanta --> Smith

Chayka had a really big week leading up to the draft and then he just fell asleep and addressed none of our needs. I feel like we're wasting a prime year of Stepan and Hjalmarsson because Chayka fell too much in love with his own pre draft moves. He forgot about the fact that the entire right side of the lineup is a barren wasteland of nothingness. We've only got 2/3rds of a team.

I'm glad Tippett's gone. I like the trades we did make. We ****ed up by taking the rest of the summer completely off. I hope he submitted PTO and set his Outlook automatic replies because my man Chayka has been OUT THE ****ING OFFICE for weeks.

I'm just going to be annoyed when Chayka acts surprised this team can't win any games. I'll be a little miffed when they act like there's some mystery here.

Our depth at D atrocious and we only have one guy on our 2nd pair. That's going to lose us A LOT of hockey games. If we suffer one more injury, we'll have the worst defense in the NHL. It's a problem.

If Strome and Keller aren't ready to put up big numbers, we're worse up front this year than we were last year. 100% of our hopes for improving our offense from forwards rests on the shoulders of rookies. It's a problem.

The only trade I really like was getting rid of Murphy. Hjalmarsson is much better than Murphy and will / should really let OEL play his game. This is year three of the rebuild so I really did not understand the Stepan trade.

All those spots were filled at the start of last season except center and look how that turned out. The line up on the left got us a 3nd worst finish and we were 2nd most of the year.

I think it's another rebuilding year and that's pretty clear . Most of the holes are simply unfillable either due to budget or trade availability.

Everything else is likely posturing, still rebuilding.

This is year three of the rebuild and we should start to see results, but we still have holes and this is to be expected. In my eyes losing AD has really hurt us as we have no one to take his spot.

A very good post. The whole system is a mess...created by Chayka.
I don't like his moves though...he paid too much for Stepan who may be one of the best two way Centers but can't win faceoffs and doesn't create much on his own. He depends on his wingers to create and score...wingers the Coyotes don't (yet?) have. As much as I like Stepan...to give up the 7th overall plus the only RHD puckmover on the team was absolutely insane especially after all that talk of "taking advantage of the situation" that's a terribly bad deal. I guess I could live with it if the Coyotes wanted to win this season. But it doesn't make much sense to me to throw your future away for a Center in his prime if your goal is to finish in last place.
I get that not everybody likes Murphy but he's still young and mainly he's tough and a true leader and guy to look up to. And he's a righty. Same here. Hjalmarsson is a good player...I could live the deal if it happened to win this season. But to tank another year it's crazy to trade for a defender who will either be done in two years or ask for a crazy contract before being done the year after. It's a well known fact that shotblockers tend not to last very long. Lots of recent examples. To waste a year of Hjalmarsson like that is just stupid. Nothing else.

If all they want is to lose then they should have kept Murphy, deAngelo and the pick and Burmistrov. Difference between him and Stepan is gonna be pretty small on that team.

I don't think it is a mess but losing AD and the 7OA at this time for a rebuilding team was a dumb move. I know why they traded for Stepan but what we lost in that trade was huge.

 

[Jakey53]

A fickle group we are. We want our team holes to be filled without giving up anything of value in return. Chayka has a done a great job in the changes he made, to put any more quality in the team you will have to start trading away chips that other teams would want. If we trade Wood and a second for a quality RWer who may or may not shoot right half of this board will go ballistic. Also under a new system, our players we have may produce significantly better.

http://thehockeywriters.com/toronto-maple-leafs-2016-17-season-preview/

Look at the defence the Leafs started last year with, take ours any day. None of us know how long Chychrun will be out. He could be back after preseason too

I think most of us understand this, but with the Stepan trade we filled a hole but created another. It's also a bit early to start throwing darts and we should wait until after training camp to see where we are at.

 

[rt]

Josh Anderson? Still not re-signed! Just speculating that the BJs are not shopping him, but he may still be available for a center. Perhaps in a 3-way?

Maybe for Martinook.

 

[rt]

A very good post. The whole system is a mess...created by Chayka.
I don't like his moves though...he paid too much for Stepan who may be one of the best two way Centers but can't win faceoffs and doesn't create much on his own. He depends on his wingers to create and score...wingers the Coyotes don't (yet?) have. As much as I like Stepan...to give up the 7th overall plus the only RHD puckmover on the team was absolutely insane especially after all that talk of "taking advantage of the situation" that's a terribly bad deal. I guess I could live with it if the Coyotes wanted to win this season. But it doesn't make much sense to me to throw your future away for a Center in his prime if your goal is to finish in last place.
I get that not everybody likes Murphy but he's still young and mainly he's tough and a true leader and guy to look up to. And he's a righty. Same here. Hjalmarsson is a good player...I could live the deal if it happened to win this season. But to tank another year it's crazy to trade for a defender who will either be done in two years or ask for a crazy contract before being done the year after. It's a well known fact that shotblockers tend not to last very long. Lots of recent examples. To waste a year of Hjalmarsson like that is just stupid. Nothing else.

If all they want is to lose then they should have kept Murphy, deAngelo and the pick and Burmistrov. Difference between him and Stepan is gonna be pretty small on that team.

I'm mostly angry that we've been left with no competitive insurance. The team has been left far too thin. I'm not mad at the moves that were made, I'm mad that there weren't more of them. That said, this gamble could EASILY pay off.

Adam Clendening has a cult following of numbers nerds. If they're right about him and Chychrun comes back quick and Goligoski shows that last season was just a rough adjustment than our D is going to be fine. We just need the Clendening gamble to pay off, Goligoski to rebound, and Chychrun to heal.

Up front, we need Perlini to keep his pace from last season, Duclair to return to his rookie form, and we need Keller and Strome to be top performing rookies along the lines of what Toronto got out of some of their rookies recently. I'm not worried about Stepan, Domi, Dvorak or Rieder. So I think we'll be fine up front if Perlini, Duclair, Strome and Keller have big seasons.

There are just too many what-ifs. We didn't hedge our bets.

 

[Hinterland]

I'm mostly angry that we've been left with no competitive insurance. The team has been left far too thin. I'm not mad at the moves that were made, I'm mad that there weren't more of them. That said, this gamble could EASILY pay off.

Adam Clendening has a cult following of numbers nerds. If they're right about him and Chychrun comes back quick and Goligoski shows that last season was just a rough adjustment than our D is going to be fine. We just need the Clendening gamble to pay off, Goligoski to rebound, and Chychrun to heal.

Up front, we need Perlini to keep his pace from last season, Duclair to return to his rookie form, and we need Keller and Strome to be top performing rookies along the lines of what Toronto got out of some of their rookies recently. I'm not worried about Stepan, Domi, Dvorak or Rieder. So I think we'll be fine up front if Perlini, Duclair, Strome and Keller have big seasons.

There are just too many what-ifs. We didn't hedge our bets.

Clendening didn't even play a full season over all his years in the NHL. He only got to play more because of Girardi's health issues. Why do you think the Rags were happy to let him go and traded for DeAngelo instead?
I don't care what numbers guys say...Clendening is crap and has AHL quality. He's okay with the puck but he's soft and just makes too many mistakes against the puck. Just a right shooting Connauton really. If those two are your 3rd pairing, you know you're all in for last place.
Strome and Keller need at least one full AHL season. They need it more than Fischer anyways who easily could have played last season. No way Strome and Keller are there yet. Since the Coyotes aren't gonna win anyway, I'd be shocked if they don't get a season in Tucson.

 

[Heldig]

Absolutely agree that too much is dependent on the young guys ALL being good this year Ala Toronto Maple Leafs last year.

 

[rt]

Clendening didn't even play a full season over all his years in the NHL. He only got to play more because of Girardi's health issues. Why do you think the Rags were happy to let him go and traded for DeAngelo instead?
I don't care what numbers guys say...Clendening is crap and has AHL quality. He's okay with the puck but he's soft and just makes too many mistakes against the puck. Just a right shooting Connauton really. If those two are your 3rd pairing, you know you're all in for last place.
Strome and Keller need at least one full AHL season. They need it more than Fischer anyways who easily could have played last season. No way Strome and Keller are there yet. Since the Coyotes aren't gonna win anyway, I'd be shocked if they don't get a season in Tucson.

I believe Connauton was a numbers nerds darling at the time we acquired him, as well. I wouldn't be at all shocked if both Connauton and Clendening had pretty good seasons. I wouldn't be at all shocked if both proved they truly aren't NHL players. It's a coin toss.

Similarly, I could see both Keller and Strome needing time to figure the pro game out in the minors. That said, a lot of experts are expecting big things. Chayka seems supremely confident in Strome's progression and readiness. So would be shocked if they are impact players very early. I just don't like that we've failed to hedge our bets.

There needed to be more trades and signings and more depth.

Something like Demers for Schenn and McGinn. And Anderson for Martinook. And sign Ryan White and Roman Polak to cheap one year deals. That way you can afford to let some rookies marinate in the AHL if you have to.

 

[Jakey53]

Clendening didn't even play a full season over all his years in the NHL. He only got to play more because of Girardi's health issues. Why do you think the Rags were happy to let him go and traded for DeAngelo instead?
I don't care what numbers guys say...Clendening is crap and has AHL quality. He's okay with the puck but he's soft and just makes too many mistakes against the puck. Just a right shooting Connauton really. If those two are your 3rd pairing, you know you're all in for last place.
Strome and Keller need at least one full AHL season. They need it more than Fischer anyways who easily could have played last season. No way Strome and Keller are there yet. Since the Coyotes aren't gonna win anyway, I'd be shocked if they don't get a season in Tucson.

You and the rest of us have no idea where Strome and Keller are in their development. I expect one to be on the opening roster.

Absolutely agree that too much is dependent on the young guys ALL being good this year Ala Toronto Maple Leafs last year.

We are rebuilding. We have to insert young players into your line up. We started this last year and will continue this year.

 

[Jakey53]

I believe Connauton was a numbers nerds darling at the time we acquired him, as well. I wouldn't be at all shocked if both Connauton and Clendening had pretty good seasons. I wouldn't be at all shocked if both proved they truly aren't NHL players. It's a coin toss.

Similarly, I could see both Keller and Strome needing time to figure the pro game out in the minors. That said, a lot of experts are expecting big things. Chayka seems supremely confident in Strome's progression and readiness. So would be shocked if they are impact players very early. I just don't like that we've failed to hedge our bets.

There needed to be more trades and signings and more depth.

Something like Demers for Schenn and McGinn. And Anderson for Martinook. And sign Ryan White and Roman Polak to cheap one year deals. That way you can afford to let some rookies marinate in the AHL if you have to.

It takes two teams to make a trade. Right now, I suspect the other teams are asking for the moon for their D in a trade with us. We might have a good chance to pick up some at a better price during or after training camp.

 

[rt]

Absolutely agree that too much is dependent on the young guys ALL being good this year Ala Toronto Maple Leafs last year.

What does everything working out up front look like? I'm trying to picture it:

For Domi it's probably taking his career g/82 and his career a/82 and giving each a 10% bump, right? So 18g 40a 58p.

For Stepan it's just his career/82 numbers, i think. So 20g 37a 57p.

For Duclair it would just be his rookie totals, right? So 20g 24a 44p.

What do we want from Dvorak? 20% gains? 18g 21a 39p?

We'd be happy if Rieder just kept pace right? 15g 17a 32p.

I'd be thrilled if Perlini just did what he did but over 82, which is 20g 11a 31p.

What do we want from Keller and Strome if they have really good rooki seasons? Something like a hybrid of what Domi, Duclair, and Dvorak did? Those were great Coyotes rookies. Probably unfair to ask for more than that, right?

For Keller and Strome each/82 that'd be 18g 26a 44p.

For Martinook I guess at age 25, we're basically just looking for him to round out, and production should be fairly standard. 10g 15a 25p

For McGinn the problem for him is he'll get no PP time:

Career:
GP: 522
Pts: 184
PPP: 40
5v5: 144

Career/82:
Pts/82: 29
PPP/82: 06
5v5/82: 23

6yrs w/no AHL:
GP: 379
Pts: 159
PPP: 39
5v5: 123

6yrs w/no AHL/82:
Pts/82: 34
PPP/82: 08
5v5/82: 26

^ I'd say he'll put up roughly 26pts next season. 25% of his career goals are PPG and roughly 18% of his career assists are PPA. 54% of his career points are goals. So I'd wager things even out a little on the goals v assists side of things due to the lack of PPG next season.

Prediction (based on 82gp):
13g 13a 26pts

For the final forward, it's a combo of Crouse, Fischer, and Cousins. Probably take their NHL averages and give them a 20% bump. So something like:

Crouse 72gp 5g 7a 12p
Fischer 7gp 3g 0a 3p
Cousins 107gp 12g 15a 27p
186gp 20g 22a 42p
/82 & x1.2 = 11g 12a 23p

 

[Heldig]

For ***** and giggles here is some of the Sports Forecaster predictions:

Domi 24g + 45a = 69
OEL 19 + 43 = 62
DuClair 27 + 30 = 57
Stepan 20 + 32 = 52
Dvorak 17 + 28 = 45
Keller 11 + 33 = 44