Speculation: 2017 Off Season Discussion V - rt calls his shot.

[Kaibur]

Around the league, there's still a lot of **** that has to shake loose before the season starts.

What happens with Vanek? Jagr? Or even 2nd tier players like Winnik and Franson?
How does Detroit get under the cap?
Does Duchene stay in Colorado?
What if Tavares refuses to re-sign?
Etc...

Chayka talked about taking advantage of the expansion draft but failed to do so.

If they want to go one last year of a rebuild, they can roll the dice with what they have and play the waiver wire game. If they want to be a bubble team, there's still a trade or signing to be made, IMO.

Click to read more...

 

[Toadie]

6) Arizona Coyotes
ANALYSIS: Another year closer to competitiveness, but although I had the Coyotes on my trending up list, I’m predicting they finish in the same spot within the Pacific standings as last season. I do have Arizona improving from third-worst overall to seventh worst, but it’s a modest improvement. Baby steps, if you will, with the following season (2018-19) shaping up to be a potential breakout. It will take time to adjust from Dave Tippett’s system to Rick Tocchet and this is still going to be a really young team, especially up front with half the forwards 22 or under. That includes Calder candidates Clayton Keller and Dylan Strome, sophomores Christian Dvorak, Brendan Perlini and Lawson Crouse, plus third-year players Max Domi and Anthony Duclair — both of whom struggled last season after shining as rookies. Derek Stepan will help show those kids the way and Niklas Hjalmarsson will be the perfect defence partner for new captain Oliver Ekman-Larsson, but the key here will be how much better, if any, Antti Raanta performs than Mike Smith the last couple seasons. Raanta is the wild card for Arizona and if he’s the next Cam Talbot, then the Coyotes might make more noise than I’m anticipating.

http://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-standings-predictions-offseason-edition-2/

I still think they will do better.. Might be just the fan in me but they have pieces but how well will they come together

 

[Grimes]

For ***** and giggles here is some of the Sports Forecaster predictions:

Domi 24g + 45a = 69
OEL 19 + 43 = 62
DuClair 27 + 30 = 57
Stepan 20 + 32 = 52
Dvorak 17 + 28 = 45
Keller 11 + 33 = 44

Well Sports Forecaster has us making the playoffs, ha.

Rt, this was the year to move a top ten pick. Chayka stated he has been trying to get Stepan for over a year, and the opportunity came along. I really dont mind if we do get another top ten pick thisysar to recoup the costs of aquiring Stepan. It hurts that we lose a competitive year of him and Hammer but they shoild help with rookie development, so it will be hard to gauge if we truly lost a season of them being on tbe team. Hopefully next years UFA group is stronger, but there werent many players I thought were worth signing. All that being said, if we truly had a chance to trade for Demers, I'd have done everything I could have to make a reasonable deal work. He blocked Vancouver, maybe he blocked us too.

 

[_Del_]

We're in for a bad year. Whether budget or whatever, they obviously think this is the team going forward. Makes me question some of the moves if we're still half-assing it, to be honest. But at least they tried, I guess

 

[rt]

What does everything working out up front look like? I'm trying to picture it:

For Domi it's probably taking his career g/82 and his career a/82 and giving each a 10% bump, right? So 18g 40a 58p.

For Stepan it's just his career/82 numbers, i think. So 20g 37a 57p.

For Duclair it would just be his rookie totals, right? So 20g 24a 44p.

What do we want from Dvorak? 20% gains? 18g 21a 39p?

We'd be happy if Rieder just kept pace right? 15g 17a 32p.

I'd be thrilled if Perlini just did what he did but over 82, which is 20g 11a 31p.

What do we want from Keller and Strome if they have really good rooki seasons? Something like a hybrid of what Domi, Duclair, and Dvorak did? Those were great Coyotes rookies. Probably unfair to ask for more than that, right?

For Keller and Strome each/82 that'd be 18g 26a 44p.

For Martinook I guess at age 25, we're basically just looking for him to round out, and production should be fairly standard. 10g 15a 25p

For McGinn the problem for him is he'll get no PP time:

Career:
GP: 522
Pts: 184
PPP: 40
5v5: 144

Career/82:
Pts/82: 29
PPP/82: 06
5v5/82: 23

6yrs w/no AHL:
GP: 379
Pts: 159
PPP: 39
5v5: 123

6yrs w/no AHL/82:
Pts/82: 34
PPP/82: 08
5v5/82: 26

^ I'd say he'll put up roughly 26pts next season. 25% of his career goals are PPG and roughly 18% of his career assists are PPA. 54% of his career points are goals. So I'd wager things even out a little on the goals v assists side of things due to the lack of PPG next season.

Prediction (based on 82gp):
13g 13a 26pts

For the final forward, it's a combo of Crouse, Fischer, and Cousins. Probably take their NHL averages and give them a 20% bump. So something like:

Crouse 72gp 5g 7a 12p
Fischer 7gp 3g 0a 3p
Cousins 107gp 12g 15a 27p
186gp 20g 22a 42p
/82 & x1.2 = 11g 12a 23p

So if everything goes really well, and we stay pretty healthy, I'm guessing (as an optimist), my moon shot numbers would be:

1. Domi: 18g 40a 58p
2. Stepan: 20g 37a 57p
3. Duclair: 20g 24a 44p
4. Keller: 18g 26a 44p
5. Strome: 18g 26a 44p
6. Dvorak: 18g 21a 39p
7. Rieder: 15g 17a 32p
8. Perlini: 20g 11a 31p
9. McGinn: 13g 13a 26p
10.Richardson: 11g 15a 26p
11.Martinook: 10g 15a 25p
12.Whichever: 11g 12a 23p

I'd probably just pluck 1g and 1a from everyone and feel like less of a naive homer noob about it:

1. Domi: 17g 39a 56p
2. Stepan: 19g 36a 55p
3. Duclair: 19g 23a 42p
4. Keller: 17g 25a 42p
5. Strome: 17g 25a 42p
6. Dvorak: 17g 20a 37p
7. Rieder: 14g 16a 30p
8. Perlini: 19g 10a 29p
9. McGinn: 12g 12a 24p
10.Richardson: 10g 14a 24p
11.Martinook: 9g 14a 23p
12.Whichever: 10g 11a 21p

^Final answer.

 

[Matias Maccete]

We're in for a bad year. Whether budget or whatever, they obviously think this is the team going forward. Makes me question some of the moves if we're still half-assing it, to be honest. But at least they tried, I guess

I wonder if we misinterpreted those trades. When we acquired Hammer and Stepan I assumed they were win now moves. Maybe it was more that we got Stepan to shelter Dvorak and Strome, and Hammer to make OEL happy?

 

[Hinterland]

You and the rest of us have no idea where Strome and Keller are in their development. I expect one to be on the opening roster.

No, I don't. All I know is that they were both miles away from NHL lvl when they both had a short but fair chance to prove themselves last season.
Fischer easily could have played last season. I didn't see too much but based on the bit I did see he was more than ready. So if you give Fischer an extra year to kick start his offense why would you count on Strome and Keller to have an impact in the NHL if the only thing you want to do next season is to lose and tank for a top pick? Fischer had a fantastic camp last season and didn't make the team. He put up solid numbers in the AHL and played an impressive two way game for the Coyotes when he got the chance. He even played on the PK in his first NHL game and scored a goal in both game 1 and game 2. It would blow me away if either Strome or Keller has the overall level Fischer had a year ago. Just look at their bodies. It starts there and ends with their two way game. I just don't see it. And even if, I'd still send them to Tucson since there's nothing to win with the Coyotes. Fischer had his extra year and I don't think it hurt him at all. Let the three (Duclair included) develop some chemistry in Tucson and chase a title. Again. Nothing to win with the big club next season. So might as well add Crouse to the Tucson roster.

 

[SpaceCoyote]

What does everything working out up front look like? I'm trying to picture it

This puts our forward group at 186, only 1 more goal than I predicted here:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=135129671&highlight=#post135129671

Like I said, none of these totals seem outlandish and if we can put up these numbers and we get some defensive scoring help, OEL gets back to 20g, I think we have a chance at being a bubble team.

 

[Hinterland]

I wonder if we misinterpreted those trades. When we acquired Hammer and Stepan I assumed they were win now moves. Maybe it was more that we got Stepan to shelter Dvorak and Strome, and Hammer to make OEL happy?

That's just nonsense, sorry.
There's no room for misinterpretation there. Those are moves you only do if you want to win. As soon as a GM starts to make trades based on wishes from players, he should go right away. If OEL thinks he knows what the team needs, they might as well fire Chayka and promote OEL to Captain and GM. Would fit right into the Arizona circus. Similar experiment worked well enough with Tippett. OEL isn't gonna thank Chayka by asking for less money...I can promise you that. Hjalmarsson is a ticking bomb that's gonna explode soon. The only question is if he explodes before or after he gets to ask for a crazy contract and if Chayka will be the idiot to pay him if OEL tells him to do so or if some other dumb GM like Chiarelli or Lamoriello will do us a favour.

Stepan is nice to have and if you're a contender you have to overpay to get those players. I get why the Rags asked for that kind of a return. The dumb thing is that Chayka did that deal just to continue to tank. He also gave away the only puckmoving RHD on the roster with only one such prospect left. For a tanking team, that's more than stupid. No other way to put it. Sorry.

Dvorak was fine on his own last season. He did very well even after Hanzal got traded. I wouldn't be shocked if he outplays Stepan this season. Only a matter of time anyways. And again...with the current wingers the Coyotes have, I fully expect Stepan's impact to be rather small. He's a two way Center. Not overly creative, rather average shot. Not a goal scorer anyways. On the current Coyotes team, I fully expect the difference between a Stepan and a Burmistrov to be rather small. Don't expect crazy scoring numbers from Stepan next season or you're in for a disappointment. With zero right shooting triggerman on the team, yoz can already subtract the 14 powerplay assists he had last season.

Also remember the Coyotes already have two more shutdown Centers on the roster compared to last season (Cousins, Richardson). No need for Stepan if all you want is to tank and if you have the opportunity to sign a guy like Burmistrov.

No matter how you put it...Chayka totally blew it.

 

[Hinterland]

6) Arizona Coyotes
ANALYSIS: Another year closer to competitiveness, but although I had the Coyotes on my trending up list, I’m predicting they finish in the same spot within the Pacific standings as last season. I do have Arizona improving from third-worst overall to seventh worst, but it’s a modest improvement. Baby steps, if you will, with the following season (2018-19) shaping up to be a potential breakout. It will take time to adjust from Dave Tippett’s system to Rick Tocchet and this is still going to be a really young team, especially up front with half the forwards 22 or under. That includes Calder candidates Clayton Keller and Dylan Strome, sophomores Christian Dvorak, Brendan Perlini and Lawson Crouse, plus third-year players Max Domi and Anthony Duclair — both of whom struggled last season after shining as rookies. Derek Stepan will help show those kids the way and Niklas Hjalmarsson will be the perfect defence partner for new captain Oliver Ekman-Larsson, but the key here will be how much better, if any, Antti Raanta performs than Mike Smith the last couple seasons. Raanta is the wild card for Arizona and if he’s the next Cam Talbot, then the Coyotes might make more noise than I’m anticipating.

http://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-standings-predictions-offseason-edition-2/

I still think they will do better.. Might be just the fan in me but they have pieces but how well will they come together

That's what happens if you do a preview but in fact don't have a clue.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

No matter how you put it...Chayka totally blew it.

Haven't touched a puck in anger yet and we're already on the "fire Chayka" bandwagon??

I am at a complete loss.

Given the context of this franchise, Chayka has been a frigging miracle worker. And this is from one of the people who thought putting him in charge was a titanic mistake.

How about we ACTUALLY crash and burn before you folks demand another total rebuild?

 

[SniperHF]

I wonder if we misinterpreted those trades. When we acquired Hammer and Stepan I assumed they were win now moves. Maybe it was more that we got Stepan to shelter Dvorak and Strome, and Hammer to make OEL happy?

Maybe I was living in a bubble, but I kinda thought this was the prevailing wisdom. Now lots of people are going all over all the problems on the roster as if they were ever going to be fixed in one offseason.

It's absurd.

 

[Hinterland]

Haven't touched a puck in anger yet and we're already on the "fire Chayka" bandwagon??

I am at a complete loss.

Given the context of this franchise, Chayka has been a frigging miracle worker. And this is from one of the people who thought putting him in charge was a titanic mistake.

How about we ACTUALLY crash and burn before you folks demand another total rebuild?

Most here may disagree with me. But I still think it was a mistake to fire Maloney. This would have never happened under him. Chayka did some good things but overall he's just creating a mess. I don't see the plan. Almost all of the decent players on the Coyotes roster or those who I expect to be there were either drafted, signed or acquired by Maloney. I'm not impressed with Chayka and I don't see how he could fix the mess he created. Of course Tippett didn't help much but you can't blame the guy for everything.

 

[Hinterland]

Maybe I was living in a bubble, but I kinda thought this was the prevailing wisdom. Now lots of people are going all over all the problems on the roster as if they were ever going to be fixed in one offseason.

It's absurd.

The team and the system as a whole is out of balance and at least in my view far worse than last season. There's the problem. I didn't expect the Coyotes to be competitive at all. I did expect either improvement of the roster or of the system and it only got worse. I'm not against another tanking season but if that's the plan, this was a terrible offseason.

 

[Heldig]

Yeah, this is not a one year fix but I am surprised at some of the comments. I think bringing in Stepan and Hjalmarsson were necessary moves to start the ship in the right direction. Cant be gutting the team leadership (Doan, Tippett, Smith And Hanzal) and expect 21 year old Domi to lead the way.

Best case scenario (as I have said in a few threads now) is a TML style renaissance and the team improves by leaps and bounds. Strome and Keller are Calder candidates, Domi enters into legit 1st line LW category, Dvorak/Perlini/Crouse et al continue to improve, OEL dominates and is back in Norris contention, and Raanta proves to be a legit starter goalie. A LOT to hope for.

Realistically, to get into playoff contention you are talking about a 70 goal differential turnaround. I think they will be better offensively. I think they will be challenged to stop goals against. Entertaining hockey but not necessarily winning hockey.

 

[_Del_]

Maybe I was living in a bubble, but I kinda thought this was the prevailing wisdom. Now lots of people are going all over all the problems on the roster as if they were ever going to be fixed in one offseason.

It's absurd.

We'll never plug all the holes in an offseason. That wasn't the expectation going into the offseason. I do think that we're dangerously thin though (which is why I disagreed with the Vermette cut last year). And management seems to again be on the "this is fine" message. That is not good. At all. It makes me question other moves if what we see is what we get, and if this was the extent of the plan.

 

[Matias Maccete]

Maybe I was living in a bubble, but I kinda thought this was the prevailing wisdom. Now lots of people are going all over all the problems on the roster as if they were ever going to be fixed in one offseason.

It's absurd.

I thought it was both the reasons I posted above and to improve the team. I didn't expect any major moves after those two, but I did think we'd acquire a few more small pieces. I don't think anyone was expecting us to go out and get key pieces for a playoff run, but some more depth may be nice, we're pretty thin on D in particular after Chychrun's injury.

I'm actually OK with it, even with the roster as it is now, I think we'll be competitive. But some depth moves would be ok. We do have time though, and that depth could come in the form of waiver pick up.

 

[lanky]

We traded a bunch of appreciating assets for a couple declining assets. If we were planning on being in the playoffs this year then the trades would make sense because the value isn't bad. It just looks like we're not planning on being in the playoffs (imo because of poor D depth).

 

[SniperHF]

We'll never plug all the holes in an offseason. That wasn't the expectation going into the offseason. I do think that we're dangerously thin though (which is why I disagreed with the Vermette cut last year). And management seems to again be on the "this is fine" message. That is not good. At all. It makes me question other moves if what we see is what we get, and if this was the extent of the plan.

I guess I'm not hearing the "this is fine" message.

I look at the assets we have, what the budget likely is, and just don't see anywhere the FO can go. We're in a holding pattern due to circumstances and they've mostly done what they could without severely compromising existing futures.

 

[Heldig]

The team is thin on D especially with the injury to Chychrun. The D looks a lot better if the O has the puck and the G is consistent at saving the puck.

With Chychrun the team has a very good top 4. Bottom 2 shouldn't play that much.

 

[Hinterland]

We traded a bunch of appreciating assets for a couple declining assets. If we were planning on being in the playoffs this year then the trades would make sense because the value isn't bad. It just looks like we're not planning on being in the playoffs (imo because of poor D depth).

This.

 

[Toadie]

If the Yotes kept tanking there wouldn't be a fan base to recover from. We needed players who could groom our younger players and we needed the positive vibe from a media and fans perception immediately. Remeber how the media was just before the draft, especially after the Tippet move was announced. The Coyotes lost all credibility outside and I am sure they were questioning it inside the dressing room too. I think the team needed to make the NYR trade. Almost instantly it killed the mainstay negativity. They have me believing in the Yotes again because of these 3 moves. Toch as a coach, the New York and Chicago trades. Because of these moves renewed my center ice and bought 3 pairs of home tickets for this year. I am sure I am not the only one

They are making me proud to be a Yotes fan again! Generate enough excitement and entertaining hockey the team will survive.

 

[Hinterland]

If the Yotes kept tanking there wouldn't be a fan base to recover from. We needed players who could groom our younger players and we needed the positive vibe from a media and fans perception immediately. Remeber how the media was just before the draft, especially after the Tippet move was announced. The Coyotes lost all credibility outside and I am sure they were questioning it inside the dressing room too. I think the team needed to make the NYR trade. Almost instantly it killed the mainstay negativity. They have me believing in the Yotes again because of these 3 moves. Toch as a coach, the New York and Chicago trades. Because of these moves renewed my center ice and bought 3 pairs of home tickets for this year. I am sure I am not the only one

They are making me proud to be a Yotes fan again! Generate enough excitement and entertaining hockey the team will survive.

Wtf are you talking about? It's the other way around
It's the new Coyotes without Tippett and co. that's exciting. People are also excited about Barroway taking over. That fresh air was badly needed and most people (not just me) seem to appreciate Barroway and him cleaning up the Coyotes.
The trades with Chicago and NYR are, at least for a rebuilding team, terrible. Certainly don't get me excited. Also, Stepan and Hjalmarsson are shutdown players. Not the shiny new toys you buy if you want to entertain your fanbase. The most spectacular stuff you'll get outta those two are probably gonna be a few nice blocks from Hjalmarsson. Not sure that's gonna attract fans or get the crowd going though...

 

[SniperHF]

The local reaction was definitely not positive in the immediate aftermath of the changes. The Stepan and Hjlamarsson deals did go a long way to calming things down.

The only places that were mostly happy in the time between Tip being fired and the draft day deals were here and a few scatterings on Reddit/FFH. Local media, social media, and national media were all freaking out to one degree or another.

 

[Toadie]

Your 50% percent right

It's the new Coyotes without Tippett and co. that's exciting. Correct

The trades with Chicago and NYR are, at least for a rebuilding team, terrible. Umm I personally don't ever like to say someone is wrong but let's just say a team needs leaders and some with winning experience. As for entertainment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPWkFvJ7Rdw
Hat Trick goal against the Devils is one of the best I have seen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXqp2gQofLI
Great hits but his slap shot actually hits the net