Prospect Info: 2017 Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #15

[embracedbias]

Ain't it grand that even at prospect ranking #15, we're still talking about the possibility of these players, carving out a future in the NHL!

Try saying making that argument with the Leafs prospect pool 3 summers ago.

Ranking from 2010 (players with at least 200 NHL games bolded):
Nazem Kadri 1
Jerry D'Amigo 2
Keith Aulie 3
Luca Caputi 4
Brad Ross 5
Marcel Mueller 6
Jesse Blacker 7
Greg McKegg 8
Jussi Rynnas 9
Korbinian Holzer 10
James Reimer 11
Juraj Mikus 12
Sore Olden 13
Kenny Ryan 14
Mikhail Stefanovich 15
Ben Scrivens 16
Matt Frattin 17
Brayden Irwin 18
Daniel Brodin 19
Dale Mitchell 20
Petter Granberg 21
Simon Gysbers 22
Jerome Flaake 23
Sam Carrick 24
Andrew MacWilliam 25
Tyler Ruegsegger 25
Jamie Devane 27
Robert Slaney 28
Eric Knodel 29

 

[embracedbias]

Ranking from 2011 (200 games bolded, 100 games italicized)
Nazem Kadri 1
James Reimer 2
Joe Colborne 3
Keith Aulie 4
Jake Gardiner 5
Matt Frattin 6
Greg McKegg 7
Jesse Blacker 8
Tyler Biggs 9
Stuart Percy 10
Brad Ross 11
Ben Scrivens 12
Jerry D'Amigo 13
Luca Caputi 14
Sore Olden 15
Jussi Rynnas 16
Korbinian Holzer 17
Kenny Ryan 18
Josh Nichols 19
Marcel Mueller 20
Josh Leivo 21
Juraj Mikus 22
Simon Gysbers 23
David Broll 24
Petter Granberg 25
Tom Nilsson 26
Jamie Devane 27
Andrew MacWilliam 28
Mark Owuya 29
Tony Cameranesi 30

 

[embracedbias]

Ranking from 2012 (200 games bolded, 100 games italicized)
Morgan Rielly 1
Nazem Kadri 2
Matt Frattin 3
Joe Colborne 4
Ben Scrivens 5
Tyler Biggs 6
Jesse Blacker 7
Stuart Percy 8
Matt Finn 9
Carter Ashton 10
Brad Ross 11
Korbinian Holzer 12
Greg McKegg 13
Jerry D'Amigo 14
Nicolas Deschamps 15
Petter Granberg 16
Mark Owuya 17
Josh Leivo 18
Leo Komarov 19
Garret Sparks 20
Spencer Abbott 21
David Broll 22
Tom Nilsson 23
Jussi Rynnas 24
Kenny Ryan 25
Jamie Devane 26
Dominic Toninato 27
Andrew MacWilliam 28
Sam Carrick 29
Victor Loov 30

 

[embracedbias]

Ranking from 2013 (actual NHL players bolded, potential italicized)
Morgan Rielly 1
Frederick Gauthier 2
Matt Finn 3
Joe Colborne 4
Tyler Biggs 5
Stuart Percy 6
Josh Leivo 7
Petter Granberg 8
Jesse Blacker 9
Jerry D'Amigo 10
Carter Ashton 11
Greg McKegg 12
Brad Ross 13
Dominic Toninato 14
Tom Nilsson 15
Garret Sparks 16
Carter Verhaeghe 17
David Broll 18
Connor Brown 19
Andrew MacWilliam 20
Tony Cameranesi 21
Spencer Abbott 22
Kenny Ryan 23
Victor Loov 24
Chris Gibson 25
Fabrice Herzog 26
Ryan Rupert 27
Jamie Devane 28
Sam Carrick 29
Andreas Johnson 30

 

[embracedbias]

Conclusion:
Assuming Liljegren, Kapanen, & Dermott make the NHL, our prospect pool will look good (relative to previous years) if only 2 others make it.

 

[embracedbias]

Conclusion:
Assuming Liljegren, Kapanen, & Dermott make the NHL, our prospect pool will look good (relative to previous years) if only 2 others make it.

BTW, our list from last year already surpassed all of the previous years

1. Auston Matthews -- 90.30%
2. Mitch Marner -- 77.42%
3. William Nylander -- 96.95%
4. Connor Brown -- 35.79%
5. Nikita Zaitsev -- 57.87%
6. Kasperi Kapanen -- 37.50%
7. Connor Carrick -- 35.27%
8. Travis Dermott -- 35.59%
9. Nikita Soshnikov -- 44.68%
10. Andreas Johnson -- 31.60%
11. Dmytro Timashov -- 26.03%
12. Kerby Rychel -- 42.38%
13. Andrew Nielsen -- 31.48%
14. Yegor Korshkov -- 32.60%
15. Brandon Leipsic -- 23.97%
16. Rinat Valiev -- 24.09%
17. Jeremy Bracco -- 26.42%
18. Carl Grundstrom -- 29.30%
19. Zach Hyman -- 38.10%
20. Josh Leivo -- 55.17%
21. Tobias Lindberg -- 22.12%
22. Frederik Gauthier -- 29.52%
23. Joseph Woll -- 38.37%
24. Adam Brooks -- 34.96%
25. JD Greenway -- 39.81%
26. Martins Dzierkals -- 51.52%
27. Jesper Lindgren -- 49.40%
28. Victor Loov -- 41.03%
29. Frankie Corrado -- 26.67%

 

[bobermay]

BTW, our list from last year already surpassed all of the previous years

1. Auston Matthews -- 90.30%
2. Mitch Marner -- 77.42%
3. William Nylander -- 96.95%
4. Connor Brown -- 35.79%
5. Nikita Zaitsev -- 57.87%
6. Kasperi Kapanen -- 37.50%
7. Connor Carrick -- 35.27%
8. Travis Dermott -- 35.59%
9. Nikita Soshnikov -- 44.68%
10. Andreas Johnson -- 31.60%
11. Dmytro Timashov -- 26.03%
12. Kerby Rychel -- 42.38%
13. Andrew Nielsen -- 31.48%
14. Yegor Korshkov -- 32.60%
15. Brandon Leipsic -- 23.97%
16. Rinat Valiev -- 24.09%
17. Jeremy Bracco -- 26.42%
18. Carl Grundstrom -- 29.30%
19. Zach Hyman -- 38.10%
20. Josh Leivo -- 55.17%
21. Tobias Lindberg -- 22.12%
22. Frederik Gauthier -- 29.52%
23. Joseph Woll -- 38.37%
24. Adam Brooks -- 34.96%
25. JD Greenway -- 39.81%
26. Martins Dzierkals -- 51.52%
27. Jesper Lindgren -- 49.40%
28. Victor Loov -- 41.03%
29. Frankie Corrado -- 26.67%

Whats really amazing is that there could be another 6-7 that will join the bolded group in 2-3 years time.

15 NHLers from one prospect pool would be unparalleled, would it not?

 

[embracedbias]

Whats really amazing is that there could be another 6-7 that will join the bolded group in 2-3 years time.

15 NHLers from one prospect pool would be unparalleled, would it not?

You, of anyone, should be aware of how tenuous are predictions of future success for depth prospects. My guess is maybe 1-2 of those 6-7 become regulars.

Remember Matt Frattin. He was our 3rd best prospect in 2012. He had already played 58 NHL games and scored 10 goals in 13 AHL playoff games. He even helped us land Bernier.

He's now in AHL purgatory.

 

[Drew311]

Ranking from 2010 (players with at least 200 NHL games bolded):
Nazem Kadri 1
Jerry D'Amigo 2
Keith Aulie 3
Luca Caputi 4
Brad Ross 5
Marcel Mueller 6
Jesse Blacker 7
Greg McKegg 8
Jussi Rynnas 9
Korbinian Holzer 10
James Reimer 11
Juraj Mikus 12
Sore Olden 13
Kenny Ryan 14
Mikhail Stefanovich 15
Ben Scrivens 16
Matt Frattin 17
Brayden Irwin 18
Daniel Brodin 19
Dale Mitchell 20
Petter Granberg 21
Simon Gysbers 22
Jerome Flaake 23
Sam Carrick 24
Andrew MacWilliam 25
Tyler Ruegsegger 25
Jamie Devane 27
Robert Slaney 28
Eric Knodel 29

This list made me throw up in my mouth a little.

Luca Caputi at #4!!!

 

[ChrisCall]

Aaltonen. His NHLe says he a 55 point player.

I'm with bob.
It may or may not pan out, but we're at #15 now. That's a damn good NHLe.

 

[biotk]

I voted for Gauthier, but only because I didn't realise Aaltonen, who I voted for last round, was still on the list.

 

[bobermay]

You, of anyone, should be aware of how tenuous are predictions of future success for depth prospects. My guess is maybe 1-2 of those 6-7 become regulars.

Remember Matt Frattin. He was our 3rd best prospect in 2012. He had already played 58 NHL games and scored 10 goals in 13 AHL playoff games. He even helped us land Bernier.

He's now in AHL purgatory.

Sure, the keyword in the post was "Could".

Really though, its not that inconceivable...

Kapanen: Lock
Dermott: Probable
Korshkov: Probable/Possible
Grundstrom: Probable/Possible
Leivo: Probable/Possible
Johnsson - Possible
Nielsen - Possible
Rychel - Possible
Gauthier - Possible
Bracco - Possible
+
Timashov, Lindberg, Lindgren, Greenway, Woll, Brooks, Middleton, Chebykin, Valiev....

Its very possible that 4 or 5 of the first listed 10 become NHLers

And its also possible 2 of the following 9+ also make the NHL...

 

[Randy Randerson]

Timashov. He's my favourite to really jump up the rankings by the end of next year.

Ditto, been voting Timashov since like #10, I think he breaks out with more offensive usage

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think Chebykin belongs on the docket at this point, he'd likely be who I vote for after Timashov. I also think it's unfair for Aaltonen to be considered a prospect at 24

 

[bobermay]

I think Chebykin belongs on the docket at this point, he'd likely be who I vote for after Timashov. I also think it's unfair for Aaltonen to be considered a prospect at 24

Zaitsev was a year older in our polls last year

 

[Canada4Gold]

Gonna pre-face this post with the fact that despite my username that I made 7 years ago I am not Don Cherry(I hate Don Cherry) and couldn't care less about the actual nationality distribution of our roster.

I was looking at our prospect pool the other day and realized how few actual Canadians we have. 2 in the top 11, and our core doesn't really have many Canadians either(Rielly, Marner Brown, maybe Hyman)

Doesn't really mean anything, was just glancing at a potential future lineup the other day, and ignoring 4th liners and extras(which may be mainly Canadian) there were only 5 or 6 Canadians in the lineup. Seemed pretty low compared to average. Feels like most teams are half or almost half Canadian.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I'd be surprised if Timashov ever plays a game in the NHL, he doesn't have the skating to be effective in the NHL, not sure why people are so high in him

At this point of ranking, they are all questionable to make the NHL.

Timashov has fantastic offensive abilities and his skating is more than fine. He's not a huge speedster by any means but his agility is top notch. He's great along the boards for that reason as well.

I think he was completely underutilised by Keefe this season. When he got minutes, he was one of the better Marlies. I think Keefe needs to play him a lot more this upcoming season.

I'm a bit surprised that Timothy Liljegren is ahead of Kapanen and Dermott. That is certainly going on the basis of what could happen in the future.

 

[4thline]

Next 8: (in no order)

Tima/Middleton/Greenway/Aaltonen/Gauthier/Joshua/ Chebykin/ Moore

Macgregor/Gordeev/Scott as candidates to rocket up from "the rest"

 

[Pholus]

Gonna pre-face this post with the fact that despite my username that I made 7 years ago I am not Don Cherry(I hate Don Cherry) and couldn't care less about the actual nationality distribution of our roster.

I was looking at our prospect pool the other day and realized how few actual Canadians we have. 2 in the top 11, and our core doesn't really have many Canadians either(Rielly, Marner Brown, maybe Hyman)

Doesn't really mean anything, was just glancing at a potential future lineup the other day, and ignoring 4th liners and extras(which may be mainly Canadian) there were only 5 or 6 Canadians in the lineup. Seemed pretty low compared to average. Feels like most teams are half or almost half Canadian.

I looked at our roster for Sept and ep says 13 Canadians, although that includes Lupul, Horton and Fehr. The league average is 16 (502 Canadians listed on NHL rosters as per ep, although that includes everyone currently on an NHL roster, with no context like career-ending injuries or not being able to play at the NHL level), so I don't think we're that far behind.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I looked at our roster for Sept and ep says 13 Canadians, although that includes Lupul, Horton and Fehr. The league average is 16 (502 Canadians listed on NHL rosters as per ep, although that includes everyone currently on an NHL roster, with no context like career-ending injuries or not being able to play at the NHL level), so I don't think we're that far behind.

Just looking at vital players. I would imagine much or all of our 4th line and forward extra will be Canadians when you have Goat, Rychel, Leivo, Martin for now. Long term, our 15-18 or so most important players there will only be 4-6 Canadians barring important additions from outside the organization. The lesser marginal players up front will rise that number closer to league average though.

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Andersen, Kadri, Gardiner, Kapanen, Gardiner, Zaitsev, Brown, Dermott, Liljegren, Hyman, Grundstrom, Korshkov, Bracco, Woll

 

[Pholus]

Just looking at vital players. I would imagine much or all of our 4th line and forward extra will be Canadians when you have Goat, Rychel, Leivo, Martin for now. Long term, our 15-18 or so most important players there will only be 4-6 Canadians barring important additions from outside the organization. The lesser marginal players up front will rise that number closer to league average though.

That's fair, although I think the bolded would apply to any NHL team. Not to many Europeans stick around to carve out a career as a 4th liner/6th dman. Even backup goalies are mostly from NA (or young enough that they haven't established themselves).

 

[htpwn]

Ranking from 2013 (actual NHL players bolded, potential italicized)
Morgan Rielly 1
Frederick Gauthier 2
Matt Finn 3
Joe Colborne 4
Tyler Biggs 5
Stuart Percy 6
Josh Leivo 7
Petter Granberg 8
Jesse Blacker 9
Jerry D'Amigo 10
Carter Ashton 11
Greg McKegg 12
Brad Ross 13
Dominic Toninato 14
Tom Nilsson 15
Garret Sparks 16
Carter Verhaeghe 17
David Broll 18
Connor Brown 19
Andrew MacWilliam 20
Tony Cameranesi 21
Spencer Abbott 22
Kenny Ryan 23
Victor Loov 24
Chris Gibson 25
Fabrice Herzog 26
Ryan Rupert 27
Jamie Devane 28
Sam Carrick 29
Andreas Johnson 30

I don't remember the 2013 prospect rankings (although I guess I was around for them) but it is worth noting how different this pool is to that one.

Connor Brown was a recently drafted 6th rounder coming off a 69 point in 63GP campaign for the Otters. Decent... but he wouldn't be 19 on this list with those numbers/without the foresight of him scoring 128 points the following year.

There's an outside chance that none of our late round picks from this year end up in the top 30 at all.