NHL 2017-2018 Standings Watch

[Fenway]

2 weeks into the season and already some trends developing.

Montreal is crashing which I predicted as soon as I saw their early schedule. Buffalo was a team I thought would be improved but so far they have looked awful, and the Rangers have major problems.

While we are still six weeks away from the traditional US Thanksgiving checkpoint it appears Tampa Bay and Toronto are going to be the elite in the Atlantic with a wild scramble for the third divisional playoff spot. Way too early to get a read on the Bruins since Bergeron has yet to play a game and the team still has not played an Eastern team yet.

The Bruins main objective now is to stay as close to Ottawa as they can as Detroit will soon fall out of the picture. Florida could be factor but Buffalo looks like they will continue to be a bottom feeder.

That leaves our friends from Poutineville who simply can not score. I'm not foolish enough to write them off but they have a lot more areas to address than the Bruins.

My only concern after 5 games is the Bruins game in Denver where 48 hours after being embarrassed at home they showed nothing. The loss to Vegas was not unexpected, I really think teams flying into Vegas the night before are going to have problems simply because when the players arrive at their hotel at Midnight or 1 AM the city is wide awake.

Click to read more...

 

[smithformeragent]

Points are at a premium.

 

[NDiesel]

I think it's becoming clear that Wild Card is the only way this team is going to sneak into the playoffs. I don't think Toronto or Tampa is going to falter, Ottawa is always under estimated and I see them keeping it up as well.

Montreal got worse this off season by a lot in my opinion, they traded their best trade chip and didn't address their biggest need (Center). Unfortunately for us Bruins fans, Bergevin probably won't be there to ruin them for much longer.

 

[LouJersey]

Sweet, yet another thread to excite the masses and bring out the who's who of dread and despair! I am shocked to see the Caps miss the playoffs though. Was Trotz fired and Ovi dealt yet?

 

[Fenway]

3 weeks in and Detroit now is in the downward spiral most expected.

Tampa Bay and Toronto are setting the pace in the Atlantic and Ottawa is holding their own.

Game to watch on Tuesday is the Panthers at Poutineville. If the Habs lose that one they will be forced to do something drastic.

 

[smithformeragent]

Is it safe to say that the old trope about being above the playoff line come American Thanksgiving is now moot given how back loaded the schedule is?

Yes, the season is a marathon, not a sprint, but leaving points on the table to the Colorados and Buffalos of the world will come back to bite you in the ass.

Stay afloat and get healthy for now, I suppose.
I hope Sweeney is working the phones to try and bring in some type of help on a short term contract.

 

[Fenway]

Is it safe to say that the old trope about being above the playoff line come American Thanksgiving is now moot given how back loaded the schedule is?

Yes, the season is a marathon, not a sprint, but leaving points on the table to the Colorados and Buffalos of the world will come back to bite you in the ass.

Stay afloat and get healthy for now, I suppose.
I hope Sweeney is working the phones to try and bring in some type of help on a short term contract.

You can't win a playoff slot in October but you can lose one

Right now as the way the games have played out the Bruins have only squandered one point they should have banked which is the Buffalo game.

The Bruins need to play 60 minutes EVERY game - Does anybody disagree with that?

 

[Fenway]

I have my own way of looking at the standings and it simply is looking at games played and POINTS LOST

Fox example -
Tampa have played 10 games and are at -3
Toronto 9 -4
New Jersey 8 -4
Ottawa 9 -6
Columbus 8 -6
Pittsburgh 10 -7
Islanders 9 -7
BRUINS have played 7 games and are at -7
Carolina 7 -7
Philadelphia 9 -8
Washington 9 -9
Florida 8 -10
Detroit 10 -11
Buffalo 10 -12
Montreal 9 -13
Rangers 10 -14

What I like about this metric is points lost are definitive - they are gone forever.

 

[KrejciMVP]

big 3 games coming up, need 4 of 6 points

 

[everett rats]

the bruins at 3-3-1 isnt so bad considering the amount of injuries to very important players in the lineup krejci bergeron rask backes mcquaid krug still not up to speed ...that being said the schedule has gave the bruins a break with time off and easy opponents which they didnt take advantage of...but agian its only 7 games lets wait to see how they stand after 20 games and start getting healthy..tbay and tor are the only ones who have sprinted out front but a injury could slow either team down (see stamkos last yr) even so noone is far better and everyone will win games meaning bruins like many others will be in the mix for a playoff spot..losing pts like buffalo stings but can be made up by stealing pts moving forward..the key is getting the core healthy and staying in playoff positioning..hope to get hot at right time and stay injury free...had krug mcquaid and krejci been healthy vs sens i feel boston wouldve won..but lets not get to far ahead..lets play it one game at a time and hope for health and a few bounces

 

[EverettMike]

Is it safe to say that the old trope about being above the playoff line come American Thanksgiving is now moot given how back loaded the schedule is?

Yes, the season is a marathon, not a sprint, but leaving points on the table to the Colorados and Buffalos of the world will come back to bite you in the ass.

Stay afloat and get healthy for now, I suppose.
I hope Sweeney is working the phones to try and bring in some type of help on a short term contract.

Great point. Wonder what looking at Christmas standings the last 10 years reveals.

 

[talkinaway]

My metric splits the difference between Fenway's metric and the official NHL standings - I go by plus/minus, or points above/below 0.500. After about 10 games (maybe earlier), it's a reasonable surrogate for points percentage...although you technically invert it for teams below 0.500, but after about 30-40 games those are non-playoff teams anyway.

The big advantage is it's easy to compute - just PTS minus GP. In the EC, that would make the Bruins (7 PTS in 7 GP) leapfrog DET (9 PTS, 10 GP) and BUF (8 PTS, 10 GP), which I don't think anyone would reasonably disagree with.

Frankly, all things equal, I'd rather be in PHI's position (10 PTS, 9 GP) than the Bruins. Yes, our ceiling is marginally higher because we have more games to play, and hence more points available. But with more games to play, that means that we're more likely to have back-to-backs and a "crowded" schedule in the future, which certainly seems right. It also means they have some of their schedule crowding out of the way.

(Or another way to look at it: Would you be happy with being gifted a 1-0-1 record in the next 2 games to match the Flyers, or would you rather play the games to shoot the moon for the full 4 points, with the risk that you could crap out? Assuming we're playing "average" teams, I'd take the sure thing.)

 

[Fenway]

My metric splits the difference between Fenway's metric and the official NHL standings - I go by plus/minus, or points above/below 0.500. After about 10 games (maybe earlier), it's a reasonable surrogate for points percentage...although you technically invert it for teams below 0.500, but after about 30-40 games those are non-playoff teams anyway.

The big advantage is it's easy to compute - just PTS minus GP. In the EC, that would make the Bruins (7 PTS in 7 GP) leapfrog DET (9 PTS, 10 GP) and BUF (8 PTS, 10 GP), which I don't think anyone would reasonably disagree with.

Frankly, all things equal, I'd rather be in PHI's position (10 PTS, 9 GP) than the Bruins. Yes, our ceiling is marginally higher because we have more games to play, and hence more points available. But with more games to play, that means that we're more likely to have back-to-backs and a "crowded" schedule in the future, which certainly seems right. It also means they have some of their schedule crowding out of the way.

(Or another way to look at it: Would you be happy with being gifted a 1-0-1 record in the next 2 games to match the Flyers, or would you rather play the games to shoot the moon for the full 4 points, with the risk that you could crap out? Assuming we're playing "average" teams, I'd take the sure thing.)

The Bruins early results mean little in the sense they have only played one Eastern team so far and only one elite team (Nashville) - Vegas has an asterisk as I think teams coming in to play Vegas have a distraction problem that is unique to 'The Strip'.

 

[Fenway]

Updating the lost points table - Bruins having played less games than anyone can't afford to fall behind Ottawa too much.

Tampa has played 11 games and are at -3
New Jersey 9 -4
Toronto 10 -6
Columbus 10 -6
Ottawa 11 -7
Pittsburgh 11 -7
BRUINS has played 8 games and are at -7
Carolina 9 -9
Islanders 10 -9
Florida 9 -10
Philadelphia 10 -10
Washington 10 -11
Detroit 11 -13
Buffalo 11 -14
Rangers 11 -14
Montreal 10 -15

 

[Fenway]

Bruins are holding their own in points lost.

Tampa Bay is breaking out in the Atlantic - Toronto seems unpredictable what team shows up on any given night. Ottawa had been looking OK but were completely undressed by Montreal last night at home.


New Jersey 10 -4
Tampa 13 -5
Columbus 12 -8
Ottawa 12 -9
Islanders 12 -9
BRUINS has played 10 games and are at -9
Toronto 12 -10
Carolina 10 -10
Pittsburgh 13 -11
Philadelphia 12 -11
Washington 12 -13
Detroit 12 -13
Florida 11 -13
Montreal 12 -15
Buffalo 12 -16
Rangers 12 -16

 

[smithformeragent]

B's on an 89 point pace.

This is going to a grind of a season.
They've taking care of just enough business to give themselves a chance.

 

[smithformeragent]

82 point pace.

Points are at a premium.
Points aren't coming.
Canadiens have passed them.

Good thing the whole US Thanksgiving thing doesn't apply lately, right?

Am I grasping at straws?

 

[Fenway]

82 point pace.

Points are at a premium.
Points aren't coming.
Canadiens have passed them.

Good thing the whole US Thanksgiving thing doesn't apply lately, right?

Am I grasping at straws?

Woke up - glanced at your post - went back to bed

 

[Dellstrom]

All things considered, we're pretty lucky our division minus TB is horrible this year. We're a few games back on mostly everyone, if we win all those games, we're right back into the picture. 2 wins and we're tied with NYR for WC2. Really, it could be so much worse.

Although I'd like to see them score more than 1 goal for a game or two, let alone win 3-5 in a row...

 

[EverettMike]

82 point pace.

Points are at a premium.
Points aren't coming.
Canadiens have passed them.

Good thing the whole US Thanksgiving thing doesn't apply lately, right?

Am I grasping at straws?

I'm using Christmas as the measuring stick. Think we talked about that earlier.

 

[Fenway]

I'm using Christmas as the measuring stick. Think we talked about that earlier.

Hockey is an 82 game spreadsheet. What is alarming is they only have ONE win on the road which is the lowest in the conference. The team is looking at a possible seven game losing steak before they return home on Black Friday.

 

[smithformeragent]

On pace for 77 points.

3rd place Ottawa on pace for 107.

WC2 Islanders on pace for 96.

 

[McGarnagle]

A week from Thanksgiving and we're currently on pace for 77 points.

Over the past four seasons, since the last lockout, the average lowest point total for a playoff team in the east has been 95 points.

To get to 95, we'd need to play at a 100 point pace the remainder of the season. And that's a conservative estimate of how the rest of the conference shakes out.

They're not out of it yet. But I think by December 1st we will have a good idea of whether this team has a shot of qualifying or not. Win 3 in a row now and they're back in the hunt. But if they come away from this west coast swing with nothing, they might be DOA when they fly back to Boston.

 

[Fenway]

The Athletic is projecting the Bruins to finish third in the Atlantic and a 63% chance of making the playoffs. They are forecasting Ottawa is going to fall part.

 

[talkinaway]

IIRC, the Thanksgiving rule is about halfway between being perfect and just using a coin flip to judge a team's abilities - about 75% of the time, the Thanksgiving rule gets it right. The other 25% are probably likely to have good reasons - teams getting injuries later in the season that cause them to fall out, teams recovering from injuries that artificially depressed their standings for the first 5-6 weeks, and teams that are literally 1 or 2 points (or even tied) from making the cutoff either way.

I just don't know how we'll do at full strength...or if we'll even be anywhere near full strength. I wouldn't pin my hopes on Backes...even if he comes back at 100%, if you'd told me in July or August that he'd be the one to save the team, I wouldn't have believed you. Same for Spooner and McQuaid. But we're certainly better with Bergeron and Krejci both (presumably) healthy, and getting the team on their first winning streak.

I think we're in for a third year in a row of borderline playoffs. So....at least we get meaningful hockey at the start of April, right?